What are you buying today?

[boilermaker75]

20 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

@Red Lion My favorite options strategy during volatile times was to sell puts and buy LEAPs calls on a stock I liked (basically a futures position) and then sell short dated calls against the LEAPs position.

 

Hope I am not sounding like a jerk, but it is LEAPS not LEAPs, Long-term Equity AnticiPation Securities.

[73 Reds]

7 minutes ago, boilermaker75 said:

 

Hope I am not sounding like a jerk, but it is LEAPS not LEAPs, Long-term Equity AnticiPation Securities.

Yeah LOL, been a long time since I traded them or even thought about them until this discussion.  I was looking at Macys call options this week but the shares look a lot more compelling as a long investment - particularly because of the large quarterly dividend.  Money leaving the corporate coffers each quarter doesn't help your long call option prospects.

[brobro777]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/12/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-tariffs-apple-dell.html
 

still long nasdaq futures 

 

haha yes

 

 

[boilermaker75]

@73 Reds So would the plural be LEAPSes? LOL

[no_free_lunch]

1 hour ago, brobro777 said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/12/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-tariffs-apple-dell.html
 

still long nasdaq futures 

 

haha yes

 

 

I have to say that if this is about national security, probably the last thing that should be exempted are phones and chips.  I have always been a trump fan but come on, why is he making it so difficult.  Am I missing something?

[Sweet]

1 minute ago, no_free_lunch said:

I have to say that if this is about national security, probably the last thing that should be exempted are phones and chips.  I have always been a trump fan but come on, why is he making it so difficult.  Am I missing something?

Because he and his team may have messed up.  You want manufacturing to move out you don’t give them a cliff edge with 125% tariffs.  You give them a couple of years notice.

[rogermunibond]

Military hardware requires analog chips, transistors, diodes, integrated circuit boards etc. which are excluded from tariffs 

[KPO]

MODG yesterday AM

[NnnnotSoSmart]

Trump Exempts Smartphones, Other Electronics From Chinese Tariffs
The step back was announced in a late Friday filing with Customs and Border Protection

 

https://www.wsj.com/tech/trump-exempts-smartphones-other-electronics-from-chinese-tariffs-dd8eb31f

 

I wouldn't want to be short AAPL on Monday.

I'm loaded to the gills with GOOGL. Maybe they'll benefit as well even though they are less hardware dependent..

[brobro777]

5 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

I have to say that if this is about national security, probably the last thing that should be exempted are phones and chips.  I have always been a trump fan but come on, why is he making it so difficult.  Am I missing something?

I dunno but this recent drop was fairly deep with IWM getting whacked 30% and QQQ off 26% and I'm disappointed NTDOY didn't drop further to $14 and PM sold off little, both from record highs

 

Probably means good prospects and outperformance vs the market for PM and NTDOY in the coming years

 

 

[no_free_lunch]

5 hours ago, brobro777 said:

I dunno but this recent drop was fairly deep with IWM getting whacked 30% and QQQ off 26% and I'm disappointed NTDOY didn't drop further to $14 and PM sold off little, both from record highs

 

Probably means good prospects and outperformance vs the market for PM and NTDOY in the coming years

 

 

Just grab as many fish as you dare.  I am buying.  US and Canada and bits of Europe.  Love japan and need to buy from there, have to admit ntdoy feels eternal. 

[brobro777]

2 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

Just grab as many fish as you dare.  I am buying.  US and Canada and bits of Europe.  Love japan and need to buy from there, have to admit ntdoy feels eternal. 

yea Nintendo is real good man. It's not just the consoles or Mario but Pokémon which I think I really underestimated 

 

And I understand some people on this board think there is another low or a new low coming at some point in the future and that may certainly turn out to be true, absolutely that could be true. But put a gun to my head and for my money I would bet the low is in, that the low is in for rest of trumps presidency 

 

 

[Kizion]

15 hours ago, NnnnotSoSmart said:

I wouldn't want to be short AAPL on Monday.

If it goes up significantly, I will increase short position. Even current valuation is ridiculous. A 10% growth and no margin deterioration is priced in, while they barely had any growth in past years. Chinese competition increasing, so I don’t see how growth would suddenly start improving again. 
 

I also see more and more promo’s on MacBooks combined with general price decreases. Then you have the IPhone SE which will take sales from higher end versions.

Edited April 13, 2025 by Kizion

[lnofeisone]

15 hours ago, Kizion said:

If it goes up significantly, I will increase short position. Even current valuation is ridiculous. A 10% growth and no margin deterioration is priced in, while they barely had any growth in past years. Chinese competition increasing, so I don’t see how growth would suddenly start improving again. 
 

I also see more and more promo’s on MacBooks combined with general price decreases. Then you have the IPhone SE which will take sales from higher end versions.

What would your target be? It feels like there are easier shorts but in this environment, who knows. 

[brobro777]

1 hour ago, lnofeisone said:

What would your target be? It feels like there are easier shorts but in this environment, who knows. 

or easier ways to make money without shorting anything 

 

haha

 

[lnofeisone]

11 minutes ago, brobro777 said:

or easier ways to make money without shorting anything 

 

haha

 

true. so far the playbook is to wait for some stupid announcement, let stocks plunge, buy, sell when things get a pause or reverse. options more than a month out are dicey because vol is so high (unless you sell and go for vega crush). 

[brobro777]

58 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

true. so far the playbook is to wait for some stupid announcement, let stocks plunge, buy, sell when things get a pause or reverse. options more than a month out are dicey because vol is so high (unless you sell and go for vega crush). 

 

no bro I mean in general. I remember shorting the market starting in 2006 because I thought all that subprime shit was way too much and I got my face kicked in over and over again shorting. Some of my shorts finally, finally started working around when Sam Zell sold his office properties to Blackrock, I think around March 2007 (leap wireless was one that cracked okay I remember)

 

and I kept shorting throughout 2007 and 2008 and into 2009 and I felt like the shit, like king of the world. Because of volatility and price declines, my put options reached max value in Nov 2008 and around this time I remember reading old man Buffett's NY times op ed, buy American I am. What did I think? I thought he should stick to old timers day at yankee stadium because he don't got it no more, he doesn't know what he's talking about, he's past his prime

 

I started to get bad feelings around spring 2009 SPX 666 because it was so palpable how demoralized everyone was but I fucking knew better and held my shorts. Well green shoots Bernanke showed me I was wrong and luckily I cashed out okay in June 2009

 

I finally turned bullish after Christmas 2009, cautiously and then subsequently got it through my thick skull that I should have been buying when everyone was losing their shit like old man Buffett said. The US isn't going to sit there and force its citizens to eat shit, deflation shit for 20 years like the Japanese because we'll start blowing up buildings and bridges and missile silos if it gets bad enough, so you gotta go long baby

 

I think this is how I graduated from being a fucking dumbass to being like normal average and just being average has worked pretty good for like 15 years 

 

haha

 

 

 

[Kizion]

4 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

What would your target be? It feels like there are easier shorts but in this environment, who knows. 

 

Around 140 but could even be lower. I don't short the general market but individual stocks which I assess as not being fairly valued. So the logic I apply is exactly the same as for my long positions.

 

Currently I short Apple and went long for same amount on GOOGL. I just exchange stocks. So I'm fine if Apple is still performing well. But I need Google to outperform Apple. My assessment that Apple is overvalued and Google is undervalued provides me comfort that Google will outperform in next 12-18 months.

 

It will maybe sound ridiculous, and this is still a test case for me personally, however I see myself a bit as a company. Where a company can play around with its shares (buying when low, issuing when high), I try to sell overvalued companies and buy undervalued ones. Everything comes down to valuations skills (this part is still under internal validation) and a rational market. Both the skills and the market are the same long vs. short. So I don't understand the reluctance of shorting.  

 

And just to be clear, I think Apple has fantastic products and ecosystem (I recently switched to Android phone, just to try, and even though I'm impressed with the phone itself, I have to admit that Apple experience is something different). I don't expect Apple to fail ever in the future, I see them still being relevant in a couple of decades. However at current valuation I really wonder what's the upside potential. Will they be able to outperform the market in the next decade from current valuation? In my opinion not, so I sell them and buy a business that I expect can outperform the market. 

 

But I'm still young and maybe a lot of people here, with much more experience, will consider this a dumb and not working. I will try to find out in next semesters  

Edited April 14, 2025 by Kizion

[frommi]

NOMD. P/E of ~9, stable and boring inflation protected business, dividends+buybacks. Only operates in the EU, no tariff drama.

[Castanza]

Airbus new position ~3%

[Dinar]

5 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Airbus new position ~3%

Why such small size?  Or is that your typical position?  I own it.  

[Castanza]

2 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Why such small size?  Or is that your typical position?  I own it.  

 

I've raised a solid amount of cash and generally like to scale into companies a few percentages at a time. Would probably take it up to a 10% position as I generally run a pretty concentrated portfolio. I trimmed some of my RTX and moved it to Airbus. No negative views on the company, just becoming oversized for me. 

[Charlie]

I bought my Berkshire b shares traders back.

Reasoning: Bank of Ameria sees no recession coming, reported good results

and Apple mainly tariff-exempted and the annual meeting coming

in 2 1/2 weeks and Berkshire likely reporting great results.

I got an e-mail that Himalaya Investing (Li Lu) is taking new investors 

and Trump showing some flexibility.

I see this as bullish signs for the market.

 

[gfp]

12 minutes ago, Charlie said:

I bought my Berkshire b shares traders back.

Reasoning: Bank of Ameria sees no recession coming, reported good results

and Apple mainly tariff-exempted and the annual meeting coming

in 2 1/2 weeks and Berkshire likely reporting great results.

I got an e-mail that Himalaya Investing (Li Lu) is taking new investors 

and Trump showing some flexibility.

I see this as bullish signs for the market.

 

 

You bought Berkshire traders back at 530 per share?

[Charlie]

1 hour ago, gfp said:

You bought Berkshire traders back at 530 per share?

gfp, I bought at €469 and sold them for €492 1-2 weeks ago.

I think we both nearly top-ticked selling Berkshire,

but I really like to own great productive assets and not to own

much cash.

Edited April 15, 2025 by Charlie