Paarslaars Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 I was making the assumption that when China is affected by tarrifs, the goverment will support the businesses even if it temporarily makes them take a hit. After all China has a long term plan while they US looks at the next 4 years, after that the tarrifs are likely gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPO Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 1 hour ago, Spekulatius said: No, they are going to put tariffs on agricultural goods and a few other things. The problem the Chinese have is that they export so much more than they import that anything they do to counter tariffs can’t reciprocate. If you look Mr Market seems to anticipate this scenario already, because agricultural good related business have not participated in the Trump rally at all. FWIW, Farmers vote for Trump, but it’s likely that his policies are not good for them at all. This is nothing new, same was the case in 2016. Trump tax policy is somewhat of an offsetting positive for farmers, particularly the higher estate tax exemption under the 2017 tax cut & jobs act. It made transferring family farms possible without raising significant money for the tax bill or outright requiring liquidation to meet the tax bill. Double (and in many cases triple) taxation at its finest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 23 minutes ago, KPO said: Trump tax policy is somewhat of an offsetting positive for farmers, particularly the higher estate tax exemption under the 2017 tax cut & jobs act. It made transferring family farms possible without raising significant money for the tax bill or outright requiring liquidation to meet the tax bill. Double (and in many cases triple) taxation at its finest. Thanks. I wasn’t aware of this. This was kept as is by democrats and I don‘t think there was an intent to change it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 (edited) 1 hour ago, Paarslaars said: I was making the assumption that when China is affected by tarrifs, the goverment will support the businesses even if it temporarily makes them take a hit. After all China has a long term plan while they US looks at the next 4 years, after that the tarrifs are likely gone. I think any stimulus is likely go toward individuals and smaller business. Xi Jinping doesn’t have much of a track record helping large business, except some state controlled industries or those that fit his economic agenda. I don’t see Temu working well in the US going forward but that’s perhaps already priced in. Edited November 9 by Spekulatius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 I added to APA and BP. These valuation of these energy shitcos is too cheap resist. I think BP will sooner or later move to the US and become US Petroleum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPO Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 2 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Thanks. I wasn’t aware of this. This was kept as is by democrats and I don‘t think there was an intent to change it. It naturally rolls back to pre-2017 levels after 2025, so the hope is this will get extended along with the lower tax rates, accelerated depreciation and other features of the original act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mananainvesting Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 Added to $HDB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giulio Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 Small add PRM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 It's looking like I'll be buying more MSGE for $40 this Friday. I had been writing MSGE puts lately and I wrote some $40 Nov 15 puts a few weeks ago and got $1.04 for them. So I'll be paying $38.96 for my shares. Not too bad. Especially because I've been selling puts for a few months which didn't get exercised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross812 Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 Doubled my CNC position (now a 1.5% position) today at the 52 week low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 Added a little CPNG and JOE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mananainvesting Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 Added to $T (AT&T) and $HDB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lnofeisone Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 I added to JOE and CNC and sold some MSGE puts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaygo Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Bought some Linemar this morning at the open. $ 57.12 CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Added a little JOE, NTDOY and KRKNF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 13 minutes ago, Saluki said: Added a little JOE, NTDOY and KRKNF. I noticed you have been steadily buying JOE, what's your position size and thesis on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 10 minutes ago, ourkid8 said: I noticed you have been steadily buying JOE, what's your position size and thesis on it? It's my 3rd biggest position, about 11% weighting in my portfolio. My thesis is that it's cheap when consider the price versus he growth and tailwinds. If you take the market cap divided by ~180k acres it's about $16k an acre, which is pretty cheap for anything near the water in any state, so as a friend of mine would say "it's not rocket surgery." I did this video about a year and a half ago, which only has 300 views, but it has most of the good things I saw in it. When I first started buying ($20, then $15), I didn't think the recreational stuff was a money maker, but it turns out that it was, so the original thesis is intact, but their are other lottery tickets in there too. This is the earliest buy I found, but the smarter people bought in 2022 in the $30s and have a much better IRR than me on this. Acquisition Date Quantity Unit Cost ($) Cost Basis ($) Value($) Gain/ Loss Gain/Loss (% 02/27/2019 (Long Term) 80 15.51 1,240.66 4,090.36 2,849.70 229.69 My timing sucks sometimes (because of the ancient trading curse), but it tends to work out okay if my research and thesis is correct and I don't mind paying for something if it's a better company than when I first started buying. CPNG at $14 looked great because it was growing fast and finally went from losing money to breakeven. I didn't mind buying more at $23, because it's still growing fast and is now really profitable with margins getting bigger because of the operating leverage. I think Bruce stepping down spooked some people, but he's still trimming the same way as before, not dumping shares like Buffett and BAC. It probably wouldn't be $51 if he was still on the board, but he was the chairman, not the CEO. All the operations people are still in their seats and still doing their thing to create value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Bought a bit of BNR (Brenntag) as a limit order hit overbite in Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mananainvesting Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Bought more $HDB and got back into $FTT.TO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lnofeisone Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Some HUM, ELV, and ERIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 bit of BP and dca OXY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cash_incinerator Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 On 11/12/2024 at 10:13 AM, giulio said: Small add PRM dumped it. great business, but im sorry management is just beyond greedy on this one. If you're that unfair to your shareholders, im gonna guess you are doing other bad things too. made some money, but no need to keep my money where with someone i cant trust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villainx Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 2 hours ago, Saluki said: I did this video about a year and a half ago, which only has 300 views, but it has most of the good things I saw in it. I didn't know this was you! Very enjoyable watch. Think I'll look for way to add more JOE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPO Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 (edited) Added to STNE sub-$10. Solid quarter, good buyback progress, net cash position, favorable gross margin profile, and trading at a single digit P/E. Outside of the obvious risk of currency volatility, what’s not to like here? Edited November 14 by KPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mananainvesting Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 On 11/12/2024 at 5:23 PM, lnofeisone said: I added to JOE and CNC and sold some MSGE puts. @Inofeisone: What’s your thesis on CNC? Any elevator pitch? Noticed the CFO buying, and I am intrigued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now