Spooky Posted June 10 Posted June 10 (edited) Pulled the trigger on a small starter position in JOE with the dip today. Edited June 10 by Spooky
Saluki Posted June 10 Posted June 10 Bought a little JOE and some more Kraken Robotics. Sold some STNG I bought exactly 1 year ago and bought an equal amount of TNP.
EricSchleien Posted June 11 Posted June 11 Added to my stake in Vistry (UK Homebuilder) and some Venezuela Litigation Claims
keegomaster Posted June 11 Posted June 11 2 hours ago, EricSchleien said: Added to my stake in Vistry (UK Homebuilder) and some Venezuela Litigation Claims Venezuela litigation claims... Tell us more about it...!
wisowis Posted June 11 Posted June 11 On 6/4/2024 at 5:52 PM, wisowis said: RTO and XPEL in the last several weeks as well. On 6/6/2024 at 11:37 AM, Gregmal said: Been buying a good chunk of RTO this week. Looks like we have some activist involvement: $RTO +6.8% [Activist investor Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management LP has amassed a significant stake in UK-based pest-control company Rentokil Initial — Bloomberg] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-11/peltz-s-trian-amasses-top-10-stake-in-terminix-owner-rentokil
Jaygo Posted June 12 Posted June 12 Ive been nibbling at some homebuilder type stuff. Nothing new in the portfolio just adds to Builders first, Graco, Simpson and Doman. I sold my Simpson 38 bucks higher and just bought it back. Nice little trade but won't be surprised to see these shares trade much lower. Are we entering a recession? yeah most likely but that is potentially a benefit to this sector since its tailwinds are temporarily being held back by rates. I think the outcome will be a steep drop in the cyclical industrials but then a very strong rebound in a few years. I could see doubles out of Each of these minus GGG in the next 5 years but with lots of ups and downs ahead.
Jaygo Posted June 12 Posted June 12 12 hours ago, Jaygo said: Ive been nibbling at some homebuilder type stuff. Nothing new in the portfolio just adds to Builders first, Graco, Simpson and Doman. I sold my Simpson 38 bucks higher and just bought it back. Nice little trade but won't be surprised to see these shares trade much lower. Are we entering a recession? yeah most likely but that is potentially a benefit to this sector since its tailwinds are temporarily being held back by rates. I think the outcome will be a steep drop in the cyclical industrials but then a very strong rebound in a few years. I could see doubles out of Each of these minus GGG in the next 5 years but with lots of ups and downs ahead. Better to be lucky than good. Very big bounces in all of these today with the slightest hint of a rate cut. A podcast a while back about the US housing sector really opened my eyes to the potential here. There are millions of homes in shortfall and 10's of millions in need of rehab, gut or rebuild. I think this is a sector you can kind of just bank on to work for another 10plus years. I think an easy way to play it is with Lowes since the capital allocation is quite good. Ive gone smaller and more niche with hardware, lumber, supplies and spray equipment. Reichelue, Sherwin and Site are all pretty good picks too. Jeldwen and masonite for a possible rebound is interesting too. I am a firm believer in the continued global migration to NA. It may be Canada or the US but homes and housing will need to be built at a gdp plus number for a very long time. I also dare say this may be one of the biggest beneficiaries of tech that still goes unrecognised. Yeah robot call centres are cool but have you seen robotic band saws! much cooler, much safer and they dont take smoke breaks.
hasilp89 Posted June 12 Posted June 12 (edited) 1 hour ago, Paarslaars said: UMI at 15€. Something you've been following for a while or results downgrade (and price decline) got you interested? Edited June 12 by hasilp89
Castanza Posted June 12 Posted June 12 13 hours ago, Jaygo said: Ive been nibbling at some homebuilder type stuff. Nothing new in the portfolio just adds to Builders first, Graco, Simpson and Doman. I sold my Simpson 38 bucks higher and just bought it back. Nice little trade but won't be surprised to see these shares trade much lower. Are we entering a recession? yeah most likely but that is potentially a benefit to this sector since its tailwinds are temporarily being held back by rates. I think the outcome will be a steep drop in the cyclical industrials but then a very strong rebound in a few years. I could see doubles out of Each of these minus GGG in the next 5 years but with lots of ups and downs ahead. $WFG been dropping as well
Paarslaars Posted June 12 Posted June 12 (edited) 1 hour ago, hasilp89 said: Something you've been following for a while or results downgrade (and price decline) got you interested? It's my employer so yes I follow it closely. They are fucking up in the battery materials business in my opinion which is dragging down the stock but the recycling and catalyst business are rock solid and these two are worth more than they current stock price. Edited June 12 by Paarslaars
hasilp89 Posted June 12 Posted June 12 2 hours ago, Paarslaars said: It's my employer so yes I follow it closely. They are fucking up in the battery materials business in my opinion which is dragging down the stock but the recycling and catalyst business are rock solid and these two are worth more than they current stock price. interesting. i'm guessing you know it better than most then!
Spekulatius Posted June 13 Posted June 13 9 hours ago, Paarslaars said: It's my employer so yes I follow it closely. They are fucking up in the battery materials business in my opinion which is dragging down the stock but the recycling and catalyst business are rock solid and these two are worth more than they current stock price. UMI looks interesting. I do agree that the battery business looks challenging. I read the latest CC transcript and it seems like Umicore is heavily betting on the NMC (Nickel Mangan Cobalt) while there is a clear trends towards LFP (Lithium iron phosphate) batteries which cheaper , safer but less energy density. So it seems to me that Umicore betted on the wrong horse here and now is going to be stuck for a while. LFP materials are way cheaper and perhaps more important are total differnt , so I don’t think it’s a situation that is easy to rectify. Umicore may have to cut the losses here and all it a day, or they have to start from scratch. The battery business is messy because nothing is settled in terms of which material set will win, so if you service these markets and need to spent significant Capex for capacity before demand materialized you can easily get stuck here with obsolete equipment and Capex when things work out differently.
Paarslaars Posted June 13 Posted June 13 Yes indeed, they also betted originally (few years back) on the 'mid range' NMC like 622 instead of the high range one 811. They do have a new product coming up to compete with LFP, which is HLM (high lithium manganese), this should outperform LFP while being cheaper than NMC (but still more expensive than LFP). In my opinion this is a pure consumer based market, cheapest product will take over. So I do not have that much faith the battery division at this moment. So I agree that they would be better off just dropping the business, don't think that will be the way forward though. Mid year earnings are 26th of July, we'll know more then. However, I think the combined entity of recycling and catalyst are worth more than the current market cap... when I have some time I'll do a write up about it.
jefke Posted June 13 Posted June 13 Cool insider purchase Any comments on Belgian gov taking 5% stake? (kills any possibility for M&A) + abrupt CEO exit? 17 hours ago, Paarslaars said: It's my employer so yes I follow it closely. They are fucking up in the battery materials business in my opinion which is dragging down the stock but the recycling and catalyst business are rock solid and these two are worth more than they current stock price.
Paarslaars Posted June 13 Posted June 13 CEO seems to be the fall guy for the battery market not materializing as expected... though he was generally unliked by his management board, many senior executives had left the company over his time here because they found him difficult to work with. I don't understand the governments involvement...have to take a look at the laws surrounding M&A but I'm not sure 5% is enough to stop a takeover.
jefke Posted June 13 Posted June 13 I got the feeling Belgium take privates are usually tender offer + squeeze out if 95% threshold is reached. So 5% could block the full take private. Dno if there are other mechanisms. In a merger, a shareholder vote with 75% in favor suffices. (I'n not an expert here, could be wrong or missing something!) (Also dno if this really matters for Umicore as an investment). Anyway, you got me interested. Would be cool if you find the time to do a full write-up!
Eldad Posted June 13 Posted June 13 On 6/12/2024 at 9:45 AM, Jaygo said: Better to be lucky than good. Very big bounces in all of these today with the slightest hint of a rate cut. A podcast a while back about the US housing sector really opened my eyes to the potential here. There are millions of homes in shortfall and 10's of millions in need of rehab, gut or rebuild. I think this is a sector you can kind of just bank on to work for another 10plus years. I think an easy way to play it is with Lowes since the capital allocation is quite good. Ive gone smaller and more niche with hardware, lumber, supplies and spray equipment. Reichelue, Sherwin and Site are all pretty good picks too. Jeldwen and masonite for a possible rebound is interesting too. I am a firm believer in the continued global migration to NA. It may be Canada or the US but homes and housing will need to be built at a gdp plus number for a very long time. I also dare say this may be one of the biggest beneficiaries of tech that still goes unrecognised. Yeah robot call centres are cool but have you seen robotic band saws! much cooler, much safer and they dont take smoke breaks. Good thoughts. GGG might be my favorite company. But I feel that this sector has so much further to fall. Might as well read a couple of books, go fishing, and check back in 3 months is how I’m feeling about this market.
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