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What are you buying today?


LowIQinvestor

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On 12/22/2023 at 8:01 PM, dipod said:

TSLA 2025 LEAP puts about 20% OTM partly as a speculative instrument but also as a portfolio hedge.

 

Working thesis: losing the EV subsidy on most of their cars next year, declining prices on most of their models which will hurt margins/profits, recalls/bad press on many of their vehicles with reliability issues, profitability for the second half of this year has not been great but still > 100% rise YTD, increasing competition within the EV space.

 

Godspeed my friend, may you dodge all rocks, hidden reefs, and snarling musk monsters to sail far and deep into the money. Unfortunately mine hit a reef in mid 2021 with the loss of all premiums, if only I had provisioned for another 6 months we would have made port with huge profits.

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On 12/22/2023 at 1:34 PM, keegomaster said:

I have also started looking at HSY recently, similarly with PFE. These are the companies that one wishes to own for the long term but are usually expensive. So when they start to trade around 52w lows I start to consider them... Especially when most positions in my current portfolio seem to be fairly valued and not attractive for the next marginal investment. 

 

For HSY the narrative around the price decline seems to be Ozempic and other related weight loss drugs. To me those fears seem overblown, and I plan to continue reading and understanding HSY's financials and probable future performance. 

 

Is there anything else to consider as potential threats or concerns to HSY? 

 

Cheers! 

 

Yeah ive been building a hsy position too.  Not quite sure what the cause for the decline is, but its not operating performance.  Cocoa and sugar prices roofing of late maybe, ozyempic talk perhaps, maybe tax loss selling as we get to year end.  Clearly a superior business at a fair price roght now.  Easy to buy at 20x, back up the truck at 15x.  

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1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

 

Godspeed my friend, may you dodge all rocks, hidden reefs, and snarling musk monsters to sail far and deep into the money. Unfortunately mine hit a reef in mid 2021 with the loss of all premiums, if only I had provisioned for another 6 months we would have made port with huge profits.

Decent hedge and I think the market is underpricing many of the risks that exist with the business. Margins are going down and competition is rising sharply. I understand the frothy nature of the trade but the risk-reward makes sense to me. 

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8 hours ago, LC said:

You’re right, the stock is cheap but it’s a super small position for that exact reason!

I agree, it's like META a year ago... except for the political risk which kinda makes it a gamble.

I want to buy too but so far I have been able to hold myself back. 😄

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20 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

I agree, it's like META a year ago... except for the political risk which kinda makes it a gamble.

I want to buy too but so far I have been able to hold myself back. 😄

Same feeling, market become more and more emotional instead of rational.

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You all got me on the HSY thread and I started a 1% position. @valueventures reminded me about NNI today. I restarted 2.5% positions in my tax advantaged accounts. I still have 100 shares of NNI in a taxable account that I never sold and have been sitting there since 2015 that are up 3x with dividends reinvested. @dealraker would be proud.   

Edited by Ross812
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