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Posted
11 hours ago, bizaro86 said:

 

I'm on vacation in Australia right now, and they're definitely following it here. Random tourist guides mention it in their spiel, signs/ads everywhere, etc.

Yep, it’s definitely big here. The most watched (Australian) television event since Cathy Freeman won the 400m gold at the 2000 Olympics.

Posted

1. ZPR - ETF of CAD rate reset prefs. One of the few assets out there that should do well in a higher rates for longer scenario. Over time the coupon on these should reset higher and the higher current yield will make it more attractive to retail. 
 

2. New Nintendo Switch joy cons. Cost $100, but felt great buying them because the Switch is so great. 

Posted

CROX, its a 15% grower for 10 times fcf, buying back 15% of the MC and paying down debt. Its a consumer staple mistaken for a fashion brand. Ill buy more in 80s. I'm getting good consumer channel checks. Lynch classic.

Posted
31 minutes ago, LC said:

Yeah I could see that, Cod Liver Oil (CLO?)

 

thanks for putting it on my radar and framing it as such. 

 

Yea CROX may be worth a shot, good idea

 

 

Posted
2 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

some ATVI puts are trading at crazy premiums. Feels like this will close but something about train and pennies...

 

Valuation looks a little rich near term if the deal falls through. But looking out 5 years I don't think the current price is bad at all. They've been pretty steady eddy growers on almost all metrics looking back 5+ years. Dividend is a nice touch that's been consistently growing as well. Upside you're looking at 5% if it closes. Downside, maybe it trades down to mid 80's to bring it more in line historically with where it trades. But all in all this is something I wouldn't mind owning a chunk of. 

 

Plus if it falls through they get the 3b breakup fee and have the COD franchise locked up for now. Near term pipeline doesn't look amazing, but at the end of the day this is a big studio with solid franchises that has been executing well enough for me. I think the deal goes through but I guess you never know. 

Posted

@Castanza - that's the position I am taking. Sold OCT 80 Puts for $1.10 and sold 92.5Calls for $2.25. If it closes, I lose $0.25 on the call but keep $0.85 on the put. If it doesn't close, I have decent buffer and would have cost basis of around $77. 

Posted
46 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

some ATVI puts are trading at crazy premiums. Feels like this will close but something about train and pennies...

I think the puts are getting bid up by arbitrage. If you buy the stock and the Oct $90 puts for example, you basically have zero downside - if the deal falls through you are protected below $90, volatility should go through the roof for a few days and the puts should retain all or most of their extrinsic value. Sure you only make $1.35 instead of $3.70 per share if the deal does go through, but that's is still a good, almost risk free return if you assume 1 month or less until everything closes.

Posted
7 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

@Castanza - that's the position I am taking. Sold OCT 80 Puts for $1.10 and sold 92.5Calls for $2.25. If it closes, I lose $0.25 on the call but keep $0.85 on the put. If it doesn't close, I have decent buffer and would have cost basis of around $77. 

 

Nice one!

Posted
3 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

@Castanza - that's the position I am taking. Sold OCT 80 Puts for $1.10 and sold 92.5Calls for $2.25. If it closes, I lose $0.25 on the call but keep $0.85 on the put. If it doesn't close, I have decent buffer and would have cost basis of around $77. 

 

Actually, if the deal falls apart and the stock does not drop like a rock, you'd be sitting on short naked calls with the stock not too far from the strike price. Unlikely, but could be an uncomfortable 6 weeks in this scenario.

Posted
4 hours ago, backtothebeach said:

 

Actually, if the deal falls apart and the stock does not drop like a rock, you'd be sitting on short naked calls with the stock not too far from the strike price. Unlikely, but could be an uncomfortable 6 weeks in this scenario.

well then let's close it up. 

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