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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Mephistopheles said:


lucky! I wonder why it dropped so much so briefly

No idea what happened but not complaining!

 

I had a bunch of limit orders in the 7s.  🙂  Small orders though

Edited by fareastwarriors
Posted

I bought $7,000 of March 2023 calls on ZROZ which trades at $102 ($105 call for $7). this basically gives me the upside (but not the first ~10% move) on $100K of long term zero coupon tsy bonds which have duration of about 27, so it gives me (in a big move down in LT rates) about as much duration as owning $350-$400K of the bond index (though index more diversified across curve). they'll probably expire worthless in which case, I'll lose $4000-$7000 after tax. I will continue to buy these as long rates blow out as i think they provide some upside participation on inflation normalization, as well as depression / deflation hedge (though if that happens, won't make enough to matter). starting small. doubt i have the chance to get big because I'm not in the "6% tsy's" camp. 

 

Posted

PCYO at the close. Small caps are disproportionately on the receiving end of the market decline, as usual. I suspect the Fed’s balance sheet reduction is the main driver of the water lowering for all assets. Should be interesting to see how long this goes on. 

Posted (edited)
22 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Also started / added to $COF.

 

Like this one - interest rate sensitive but with monthly escalators.....so not taking duration risk like a lot of financial institutions who are borrowing short (deposits/bonds) & lending long on fixed rate products that could destroy NIM's over time. Yes - i like this one very much! & at 5-6 times earnings.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-02/higher-credit-card-bills-average-interest-rate-apr-is-highest-since-1996?sref=7zqHEcxJ 

Edited by changegonnacome
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Like this one - interest rate sensitive but with monthly escalators.....so not taking duration risk like a lot of financial institutions who are borrowing short (deposits/bonds) & lending long on fixed rate products that could destroy NIM's over time. Yes - i like this one very much! & at 5-6 times earnings.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-02/higher-credit-card-bills-average-interest-rate-apr-is-highest-since-1996?sref=7zqHEcxJ 

What really got my attention is how much stock they are buying back. Share count is down from ~460M shares at the end of 2020 to ~390M now. They are buying back shares at an almost~ 20M/quarter clip.

 

Do this at a 20% earnings yield for some time and good things start to happen. FWIW, COF is overearning a bit due to lower than baseline provisions. normalized earnings (assuming normalized provisions) are probably closer to $15/share, give or take. But with this buyback clip, this number will be going up, because the # of shares is going down very quickly.

 

image.thumb.png.401f4b01aaa21316ccd182e37ceb72de.png

Edited by Spekulatius

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