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Posted
5 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I think he can get out - happens all the time with mergers. Can't find financing etc., employees against him whatever. He does need to pay $1B most likely.


NASDAQ comps (SNAP etc) have fallen ~25% since deal was announced. On a break, I think this could be a high twenties stock.

 

Financing has long been lined up. I'm not a lawyer but reading the agreement it seems very tight. I'd say funding secured even...

 

I also don't think the board can just 'drop' the deal due to unruly employees. I'd assume shareholders would sue their asses.

 

At $37, it's clear there are risks. But I think people overestimate what Elon can do in this case with the facts at hand (might be famous last words/baggie quotes...).

Posted
16 hours ago, Jaygo said:

I bought a bit of Aritzia, GFL, Smart centres,  and Joe today. All current holdings but just adding on what seem to me like good prices when I had a slug of cash come in.

 

I sold half my Brk at 331 on the way up and was in pain watching it get into the 360's  I may just buy it all back now. I need to focus on work and am probably best putting my cash back in here and not watching the markets for a while. 

 

My customers are banging the door down so dicking around with stocks would be a poor waste of mental energy considering my trading portfolio size

Added some ATZ myself. I believe growth rates will justify its multiples. Its like a mini costco, very low capital invested for the revenues each new store generates. 

Also has very good accrual ratio.

Recent promotion of COO to CEO is positive as I believe branding will be key going forward ( and she did a very good job of it as a COO).

Posted
21 minutes ago, throw123 said:

goog and fb. could be a case of cheaper not necessarily been cheap....

Same. 

 

Increased FB 25% today and GOOGL 40% today. Both are 12.5% positions now. 

Posted
12 minutes ago, Ross812 said:

Snapchat brought GOOG down 8%+ and FB 10%+ today. That is pretty astonishing really. 

Which is nonsense and just indicative of the general market looking for excuses to sell. Which is generally what happens when stuff is over owned. I’m kinda getting tempted on some of these, but not really. I think they stabilize and become dead money for a bit. 

Posted
On 4/8/2022 at 1:26 PM, lnofeisone said:

Another binary trade.

 

Vertex Energy - the company is doing 100% pivot from used motor oil refining to being a refinery producing renewable diesel. Shell is trying to become green and is selling an enormously profitable refinery in Mobile, Alabama. What does it mean for VTNR:

-Revenue today is 120M or so and it will go to about (VTNR-guided) 2.5B (you are reading this correctly) and 200M in gross profit for FY22. They just closed the purchase of the refinery.

-They are guiding to 3.5B in revenue and 400M gross profit for FY23

-They have offtake and supply agreements signed

-EV is about 700M once accounted for all new debt

-There is a 30% short interest in the stock

 

Options are insanely priced but 10/17.5 2023 vertical spread will cost you 1.10. 

 

Some references: https://www.accesswire.com/671855/Vertex-Energy-Reports-Third-Quarter-2021-Results-and-Provides-Strategic-Update

 

 

This spread went from $1.10 to $2.70. I sold half the position and will ride the rest into expiry. 

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