Viking Posted October 30, 2020 Posted October 30, 2020 Yeehah! Sold all puts at a nice profit. However, what to buy now to hedge? Maybe that Einhorn is right and bubble is finally deflating? Some charts are starting to look real ugly with breakdowns and valuation remain high while Democrats are talking about tax hikes. Whatever you think politically this cannot be considered an earnings accelerator but, brakes. Problem with puts is price due to high VIX. I need to revisit Monday as I would not be surprised to see market rebound. We are more into complacency phase as Einhorn puts it vs panic. Cardboard I also have been wondering what is priced in to the market in terms of a Democrats win and higher corporate tax rates. Perhaps not much as they would need to win both the WH and Senate for this to happen.
Gregmal Posted November 2, 2020 Posted November 2, 2020 Sold my small over the weekend OTM call position on SPY. Added a bit of the proceeds into Nov 20 puts, paid down some margin, and wired out a small amount to buy some Biden -170 at the sports book.
Cardboard Posted November 2, 2020 Posted November 2, 2020 Smart move on Friday's calls. I have a feeling that we will get some election relief rally. So I am holding off on buying back puts. At that point virus, lockdowns, stimulus will become the topic with no new earnings announcements to speak of. Lots of layoffs announcements which have started will have large impact. People (mostly Democrats) have talked about civil unrest and a key worry right now. I doubt very much that anything will happen since if election is tight the newsflow will be very slow as votes are counted or re-counted. People riot in the streets based on shocks or one-time event. Not things that take weeks to settle. If a Biden landslide, it will be quiet. If a surprise big Trump win: same. So macro will become key after election "noise" or market distraction and nothing really different will happen over next few months weather it is Democrats or Republicans, Senate, Congress or what not. A double dip seems in the cards. Cardboard
Gregmal Posted November 2, 2020 Posted November 2, 2020 Added back a smidge of CRSP. Guessing its down because Biden again vowed to cure cancer....
Gregmal Posted November 2, 2020 Posted November 2, 2020 JBGS, FFH, PGRE, MO :P Glutton for punishment, eh? Welcome to the club.
MVP444300 Posted November 3, 2020 Posted November 3, 2020 Added back a smidge of CRSP. Guessing its down because Biden again vowed to cure cancer.... Would love to hear your thesis on CRSP?
Spekulatius Posted November 3, 2020 Posted November 3, 2020 more PDLI (even though I own a lot already). wabuffo PDLI Shares trade suspiciously weak.
Gregmal Posted November 3, 2020 Posted November 3, 2020 Added back a smidge of CRSP. Guessing its down because Biden again vowed to cure cancer.... Would love to hear your thesis on CRSP? I wrote up the theme a few years ago, I believe it was here. But basically you've got a massive TAM, very long duration runway before anything(positive or negative) will come to fruition, and just continuous positive news flow. CRSP has the best combination of reputable partners and respected scientists on board and is way ahead of the pack in terms of advancing a product(CTX001) to market. Dig around a little in the field(I have a lot of family and friends who work in the space) and you'll repeatedly hear about how CRISPR is basically a once in a generation breakthrough and that the majority of future work being done in a lot of areas utilizes a CRISPR platform. There's non guarantee which company holds the monetization key to all of this, or even if the existing court rulings stand; you've also got an evolving platform as the targeting techniques evolve...but again, your runway is long and there should be quite a bit of money to be made trading these things along the way. I think when I first wrote up as few of these CRSP was around $30 or something. EDIT 20s and NTLA lows teens. Since then you've gotten BEAM and also RPTX come public. Ive got a few shares in nonpublic companies as well. If there was ever a sector/theme where you just want to sprinkle money and then wait for the 10+ bagger, its here IMO.
LC Posted November 3, 2020 Posted November 3, 2020 How are u sizing the position, Greg? It seems somewhat speculative (the monetization aspect, not the underlying science) but you seem to have strong conviction.
Gregmal Posted November 3, 2020 Posted November 3, 2020 It just depends on your risk/speculation tolerance but when I started it I had the basket a hair below 10%. I reduced along the way as I always try to recoup my original investment as fast as possible(at least when I am pretty blatantly speculating) while maintaining a respectable exposure for myself. I cut the basket down to about 2% towards end of 2019 and early 2020. Kicked it back up to about 5% during the Gift of Covid Firesale and have basically just been trading around a core since. The thing I'd focus on is really just staying up to date with the people involved and the progress being made to market as well as the institutional partners. CRSP is a clear leader. But the science/application end is evolving so something like RPTX could be interesting. If you are a normal dude and not filthy rich I think I'd probably just say chuck $5-$10k per name at a select few and let it ride while peeling off your original capital hoping to eventually trade your way into some free shares or maybe check out some ARKG although with that its got the exposure but I hate their concentration and conviction in NVTA, despite having made a lot of money both long and short in that name, I think fundamentally it's a Ponzi scheme and its one of ARKs largest holdings. EDIT: I'd clarify on the allocation amount, depending on where you are in your earnings life cycle, maybe take a couple months worth of salary as your benchmark. Its different for everyone so 2% of portfolio if you're 60 is different than if you're 40 or 20. So is 5-10K per name. So I'd say the lesser of 2% as a basket or a few months of salary...although just be warned I hate giving uniform investment advice and its really just individual preference to which my preference can and sometimes are very different than that of others....
lnofeisone Posted November 3, 2020 Posted November 3, 2020 Few BABA shares and a small CLMT lot. The latter has been trading rather strong in the last few weeks after some news of them exploring lubricant unit sale.
wescobrk Posted November 3, 2020 Posted November 3, 2020 It is very rare that I short things but I have a small short on the nasdaq. I will cover it most likely within a week or so as I don't usually like to short but this seems like a good day to put it on. Of course, we could rally tomorrow so that is why it is a small position.
Gregmal Posted November 3, 2020 Posted November 3, 2020 After a little debating also took Trump to win NH at +275. Anecdotally Ive found NH be unique and the folks there less stupid and liberal than those in MA and CT. Matched it on a payout basis to more or less wash my Biden -170 bet. If Joe wins I win money and if Trump wins NH(regardless) I come out slightly ahead as well. Hedge trade!
Gregmal Posted November 4, 2020 Posted November 4, 2020 Added back a smidge of CRSP. Guessing its down because Biden again vowed to cure cancer.... Flipped this again, 85-93 in two days. Nothing special, its just what these stocks do.
rkbabang Posted November 4, 2020 Posted November 4, 2020 After a little debating also took Trump to win NH at +275. Anecdotally Ive found NH be unique and the folks there less stupid and liberal than those in MA and CT. Matched it on a payout basis to more or less wash my Biden -170 bet. If Joe wins I win money and if Trump wins NH(regardless) I come out slightly ahead as well. Hedge trade! NH has been swamped with people moving from liberal states like MA. I've watched the town I live in turn from solidly red 10 years ago to purple to blue. It's frustrating to say the least. They flee the states they've destroyed only to destroy their new states in the same way. They are like a plague of locusts constantly destroying then looking for a new fertile field. Ex-CA residents are in the process of doing this to TX as we speak.
Gregmal Posted November 4, 2020 Posted November 4, 2020 Hey, only in America can you shit in your bed and then just pickup and sleep in someone else's. Overall though, I think the underlying messages of this election were very positive. One, you have indisputably destroyed anything that was left(to me, not much, but I'm not gullible) of the media and pollsters credibility. Two, you saw very clear messages in places like Kenosha; a blatant reverse course from 2016 directly tied to the anarchy and chaos position of the left. Three, Hispanics, particularly in Florida and Texas, roundly rejecting Democrats as the party of socialism. While matching Trump's voter enthusiasm with another candidate will be hard for the GOP, you'd think they pretty handily take much more of the popular vote and votes in swing states with a less divisive candidate. And at the same time, the Democrats should proceed with caution and who knows, maybe realize some of the ways of their errors with regard to policies and if they come back to the middle, its all good for everyone anyway. Best line I saw last night was on Twitter. Some stupid liberal chick was spewing nonsense about "it's not a red state blue state issue at this point, its a white issue"...to which someone methodically blew her peanut sized brain out of its shell by tweeting exit polls showing that Trump actually improved DRASTICALLY amongst ALL demographics...except white males!
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