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Posted

As I said, most likely he bought nothing material

 

I bought more Berkshire b shares over the week.

No Berkshire Hathaway run-up in the shares this year before the annual meeting.

It will be interesting to see what Buffett bought and how the big businesses are doing.

However Berkshire shares are cheap and safe.  :)

Posted

I bought more Berkshire b shares over the week.

No Berkshire Hathaway run-up in the shares this year before the annual meeting.

It will be interesting to see what Buffett bought and how the big businesses are doing.

However Berkshire shares are cheap and safe.  :)

 

I have been in and out of BRK three different times in the past month. Small 3-4% gains each time. Bought more today. BRK is pretty unloved right now. Expectations are very low. Not expecting anything big to be announced tomorrow. However, one of these years we will get a nice surprise (larger stock buybacks or big purchase or something else) as Buffett will do something with the +$100 billion in cash.

 

 

Posted

Bought back some BRKB. I felt like swimming naked without owning some. Also added a tad more GD.

 

Added both of these and a touch of RTX, VZ

 

I abused RTX for a trade, but trying to wrap my head around this,  RTX really is BA with a better balance sheet and less baggage, But it’s still half commercial aerospace and I expect this sector to lose 50% of their revenues probably for a couple of years. It will come back, but the path to get there won’t be pretty for a while. I think a lot of these stocks in commercial aerospace are most likely overvalued.

Posted

bought some IRM, PM, WFC, T, and a tiny tiny position in SSD the last few trading days.  At about 10% cash.

Posted

bought some IRM, PM, WFC, T, and a tiny tiny position in SSD the last few trading days.  At about 10% cash.

 

I’ve looked at this company a few times and it’s interesting but long term I find it hard to be confident in their “moat”. Curious what your quick take is if you don’t mind sharing.

Posted

Referring to IRM? I think so because the other companies I mentioned are well covered here.

 

Long term you are right - but I think this business and its customers are stickier than imagined. Record keeping for banks, lawyers, doctors, real estate, insurance....all the old professions... it's important and usually it's easier to keep paying the storage bill vs. finding alternatives.

 

Some of the ancillary uses of their space (fine art storage) are interesting - and it shows me management is not sitting around doing totally nothing.

 

They are leveraging existing customers and migrating them to digital recording and storage. There's only going to be more and more data. And a lot of these customers have been customers for years or decades. It's easier to keep paying IRM a modest fee (even as the client transitions from paper to digital) vs. an unproven incumbent. I mean, let's say Google or Amazon comes in and sells their datacenter space as a competitor. A couple of things IMHO would discourage this scenario: (1) it's simply not a sexy business, investors may see it as a sign of weakness that Google can't find any opportunities other than competing with hard drive space; (2) these tech companies are innovative but that is exactly the opposite of what a client wants. They want to make sure their records aren't the next ones to be hacked; (3) the tech co's are a bit opaque how they leverage customer data. amazon competing with 3rd party sellers, google leveraging cookie data - again, these clients do not want their data anonymized and analyzed for Bezos's or Zuck's benefit ; (4) history matters here - google may give a great deal now, but what happens in 5 years when they need to continue to show high % revenue growth and the client's annual fees are in goog's crosshair? do you pay the fee or switch to another provider? if you switch, now you have to manage millions of records being transferred, deleted, make sure nothing is corrupted, etc. etc.

 

So ultimately as to the moat - it's a business that is large enough where scale plays a role but small and boring enough to discourage large competitors. I think the overall dynamics of the business are neutral or trending down (data is ultimately cheaper than paper), but I think it's a bit like cigarettes in that it won't ever go away.

 

So I could be totally wrong, I think in the IRM thread I've said as much. I try not to reinvest too much here (but it looks so damn cheap - maybe I'm a sucker), but every quarter it sticks around, my cost goes down. It's a heads I win, tails I don't lose too much - at least IMHO.

Posted

Referring to IRM? I think so because the other companies I mentioned are well covered here.

 

Long term you are right - but I think this business and its customers are stickier than imagined. Record keeping for banks, lawyers, doctors, real estate, insurance....all the old professions... it's important and usually it's easier to keep paying the storage bill vs. finding alternatives.

 

Some of the ancillary uses of their space (fine art storage) are interesting - and it shows me management is not sitting around doing totally nothing.

 

They are leveraging existing customers and migrating them to digital recording and storage. There's only going to be more and more data. And a lot of these customers have been customers for years or decades. It's easier to keep paying IRM a modest fee (even as the client transitions from paper to digital) vs. an unproven incumbent. I mean, let's say Google or Amazon comes in and sells their datacenter space as a competitor. A couple of things IMHO would discourage this scenario: (1) it's simply not a sexy business, investors may see it as a sign of weakness that Google can't find any opportunities other than competing with hard drive space; (2) these tech companies are innovative but that is exactly the opposite of what a client wants. They want to make sure their records aren't the next ones to be hacked; (3) the tech co's are a bit opaque how they leverage customer data. amazon competing with 3rd party sellers, google leveraging cookie data - again, these clients do not want their data anonymized and analyzed for Bezos's or Zuck's benefit ; (4) history matters here - google may give a great deal now, but what happens in 5 years when they need to continue to show high % revenue growth and the client's annual fees are in goog's crosshair? do you pay the fee or switch to another provider? if you switch, now you have to manage millions of records being transferred, deleted, make sure nothing is corrupted, etc. etc.

 

So ultimately as to the moat - it's a business that is large enough where scale plays a role but small and boring enough to discourage large competitors. I think the overall dynamics of the business are neutral or trending down (data is ultimately cheaper than paper), but I think it's a bit like cigarettes in that it won't ever go away.

 

So I could be totally wrong, I think in the IRM thread I've said as much. I try not to reinvest too much here (but it looks so damn cheap - maybe I'm a sucker), but every quarter it sticks around, my cost goes down. It's a heads I win, tails I don't lose too much - at least IMHO.

 

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Posted

Yes and just for sizing purposes - it is currently a 7% position - started around 5%, went up to 10% as I bought more, now down to 7% due to market price declines and me allocating a greater % of funds elsewhere.

 

If the price were to run up (or the rest of the portfolio were to drop dramatically in relation) I would certainly trim a fair bit to offset my cost basis, also I think I need to keep it at-or-under a 7.5% position due to the uncertainty around the core business.

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