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arcube

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Everything posted by arcube

  1. Sorry to hear that John. I wish you peace. I "managed to produce" minus 32.9 percent in about a month [the period February 19th - March 23rd] while being actually mentally incapacitated, not fit & proper and ill, & doing nothing, mostly staying away from the keyboard and my monitors. On that backdrop, there's no need to complain about minus 3 percent. - - - o 0 o - - - Off topic : Ended the year with a once-in-a-lifetime experience. R.I.P., Little Brother [Passed away December 31st early in the morning, & way too early]. So here, also a huge thank you to Broeb for picking up the baton on this yearly recurring topic.
  2. By some estimates, Softbank is sitting on $4bn gains on this one.
  3. It will start to matter only when Democrat is a president. ;)
  4. Jurgis - You should try this. Ad free, clean, no bullshit here and there.
  5. I would suggest you create a poll here on pricing bands and let people vote. Many people would be lazy to DM. I think I will pay for it as long as it is reasonable and shows current equity pricing. Good luck Garpy.
  6. What large amount of data points? Please share. Thanks. To me, your comment seems to imply that: A) you view the Fed much more influenced by COVID case numbers than employment numbers. Or perhaps, B) you believe that the COVID case numbers are so strongly correlated to the employment numbers so that they're basically the same thing (i.e. if COVID cases decline to zero, employment will quickly return to high levels). Or, C) the Fed cares a lot about asset bubbles and sees this one, so they'll reduce stimulus even if employment hasn't recovered. Is one of these views basically your position? Because the evidence I've seen seems to suggest that the Fed is likely to be reluctant to reduce stimulus until employment numbers return to levels that cause significant inflation. So, I'm curious if you think A, B, or C above is true, or if there's something else that I don't understand about your reasoning that will help bridge that gap for me. Thanks! B. But my bearish view is based on a large amount of data points I track, not just based on COVID alone. Those data points led me to sell out in mid Feburary and I was feeling like a fool for two more weeks back then. Right now those data points look even more exaggerated than in Feb. However, I've been weighing the two scenarios since last night. Sector rotation vs everything crash. I start to lean against the case of a sector rotation right now. When AAPL, TSLA, SHOP etc go bust, traditional value stocks could have their day. People who bought AAPL and TSLA have never bothered to look at what happened in 2000. Cisco was the equivalent of AAPL and TSLA today. When Cisco went into bust, it went down 90% while traditional value stocks like BRK went up 100%
  7. It is good, not sure where the database is getting filled from - CapIq or Bloomberg or something internal.
  8. This is a really clean and crisp tool. I have been using it for last six months and greatly benefitted from it. One issue I have faced is that the security page does not show the current price of equity in real time. Sometime it is dated by a day almost. Other than that, I really like it.
  9. Great Post. Thanks for sharing your wisdom and being humble.
  10. It is in China's best interest to create chaos so that India comes off as an unstable place for many businesses to pivot from China to India. The good thing right now is that India has a very strong leader so no bullying will work. If this escalates, it will be to Trump's advantage to really take on China or broker peace and look good. China is playing this multi prolonged warfare against India through Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. At some point, India will say Fuck It and go on offensive even though it is not her nature. India (current ruling party) doesn't have a lot to loose at this stage, China surely does. Let's see what the next couple weeks bring. It seems to me that India is the best target. What else should China pick? Philiphines? That would be like an adult bullying a baby. Not something glory to talk about. Taiwan? That's too scary. US army may involve. No something China wants. Russia? Mongolia? No way lol. So if it is not India, which country else is a better target? And don't forget that China won the war against Indian invasion in 1962, even though the Indian army way outnumbered, with most of their Elite troops. It is natural to think that Xi wants history to repeat.
  11. Do you mean TSX:MDI? What are your thoughts there?
  12. 100% vertically integrated but outsource most of what they do. Lot of buzz words. Unbelievable.
  13. You think this is because of low mortgage rates?
  14. If you do not mind me asking, did you fly from SNA or LAX? How was your experience on the flight? Also, are you seeing more real estate deals in midwest compared to SoCal? Appreciate the input.
  15. Are these Jan 21, 2022 expiry? Yes, I'll edit Mephistopheles - Do you mind sharing your thoughts on the size of this position and how you allocate? Sure. I have a mix of common and options. Bulk of it is common with some options at strikes 25, 27.5, 30. Options like <1% of portfolio. I bought today because WFC is near the lows from March, and cost of leverage was only about 10% + dividends. Meanwhile the stock is at like 75% of TBV. Depends on how this crisis plays out, I thing the banks are very well capitalized. Govt will never let them fail. Zero or negative rates for long would hurt. Everyone says we will have same rates or lower for long. People act like we will never see high rates again but I don't think we can ever be so sure. Thank you.
  16. Thank you, Viking. What are your thoughts on the contraction of NA economies, especially US and Canada. Arcube, i think Canada faces some pretty significant head winds: 1.) oil price decline 2.) virus 3.) housing bubble The big risk for Canada is if the coming severe recession morphs into a housing crash. Imagine the US in 2008 with its housing crisis and then on top of that add the current oil price crash and virus causing worst recession since Great Depression. I call it the three headed horseman. Not to say we get a housing crash (Canada manages mortgages very differently than the US)... but the probability is rising. This is one of the reasons i am being exceptionally careful with my investment portfolio (mostly cash and mostly in US$). Capital preservation is my focus :-) All the forecasts i see for the US are calling for it to experience its worst recession since the Great Depression. With each passing month we will get more economic news and will better understand exactly what is going on under the hood. The big challenge in the near term is the virus is a global event and we are experiencing a global severe recession. When the Recession hit in 2008/09 China ramped up spending and as a result many countries only experienced a mild recession (Canada, Australia and much of EM). Today global leadership/institutions may be at their weakest point since WW2. This just increases the odds of policy mistakes (protectionism, wars etc). The US consumer is in decent shape and the US fixed their banking system. Bottom line, we know the near term is going to be ugly. What happens after that will depend on the path of the virus which is unknowable. I completely understand why Buffett is doing what he is doing (raising cash and waiting to see what the virus does). Graham defines investing as “An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return.” He said everything else is speculation. Thank you, Viking. My concern is that Ottawa is really not going to save the resources sector in WCSB the way a resource economy should for the long term. So much talent is leaving the industry. Idea of capital preservation is absolutely the right way to go about it. Thanks again for sharing your valuable thoughts.
  17. Thank you, Viking. What are your thoughts on the contraction of NA economies, especially US and Canada.
  18. Are these Jan 21, 2022 expiry? Yes, I'll edit Mephistopheles - Do you mind sharing your thoughts on the size of this position and how you allocate?
  19. Are these Jan 21, 2022 expiry? Yes, I'll edit Thank you.
  20. Japan is a fascinating case study. Another East Asian Country that I would give an A+. My neighbor was a high level protein researcher and we have discussed it a lot. 1. They wear masks. Before Covid they would wear masks culturally - if sick, allergies, etc. 2. Social distancing - bows, etc. 3. Quieter culture. The louder a culture is perhaps the more the virus spreads. Explains the big mouth New York theory! 4. Clean culture of washing hands carefully, etc. I think the biggest thing is the masks though. Reduces the RO a ton. I am not sure if I posted this but Island in Northern Japan had increase in virus after pressure to open up https://time.com/5826918/hokkaido-coronavirus-lockdown/ In my opinion the US has handled this whole thing very badly (could have been worse though) because of Trump not being an intelligent and effective leader. The reality is that in the US this has turned into the survival of the fittest - if you have a weakened immune system or put yourself at risk you are more likely to die. +1. I also think this guy has the best response for what should have been done. Administration closed it's eyes given who is running the show. No one knew the chain of responsibility and when a leader is always there to take credit and shift responsibility you have a team of losers. This has been an utter shame. Almost 100K people perished and there is hardly any talk of it.
  21. To reach deep in naval cavity in the Upper Respiratory Tract where it lives in comfort. Just a layman take, I will let MD's clarify.
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