plato1976

Well said

I want to point out that it's not the quarantine at home as we understand. It's a quarantine that happens at specified buildings (transported by the government bus). First hand information as I can see from my wechat groups (relatives living in china broadcasting real time progress. )

Before the pandemic Overstock was traded below 10 and now it's still above 20 after the crash, what significantly changed during the pandemic as far as Overstock's business is concerned?

How about Europe? I don't treat it as EM and I do think it concerns the U.S. Gov geopolitically, if not the Fed itself

Does anyone know if this mentioned "MicroStrategy’s 0.75% convertible bond" trades publicly? Where can I check this information Thanks!

not sure how many have thought about hedging the profits It's fair to say the market is at least fairly valued. Let's say the long term rate will be permanently stuck below 1% for 10y and if we add 3% risk premium we get 25pe as reasonable for the market. Good bluechips with strong moat can have some premium and this put a cap at 30pe for bluechip with a little bit growth prospect (sth like Apple). Apple is already above 30 now. And this applies to most other new era bluechips It's also fair to say that without the liquidity the market would have been gone that high. Both liquidity and long term rate are close to the extreme they can get (they can certainly go more crazy - rate can go to 0 or slightly negative, but I see that as the last leg). I am reluctant to sell my positions for two reasons: 1) most have good moat and in the long run they will still compound 2) most importantly, I don't want to incur the tax So this leaves me with the only option. To begin to hedge. But I cannot find a good hedge here. Most leap puts are very expensive now (just check tesla puts...) I don't want to short anything in a straight way. I am actually thinking, if the main reason of this bull market is liquidity, is there a cheap way to hedge against the eventual liquidity ramping off? (I don't want to bet against the long term rate, imo the long term rate may just be stuck at a low level for a long time)

why the insurance business is very well positioned? low interest rate in general impairs the insurance business in overall

what's berkshire insurance's exposure to the pandemic? I think geico is immune to it, but re-insurance can take a hit? but how?

I can see more and more residential and companies are shifting to install solar panels to supply electricity for themselves. Many of them gain "energy independence" Won't this impact traditional utility business ? Not sure if there is a quantification of this impact

The heated up discussion about WFC and the increased number of ppl buying WFC here scared sh*t out of me

this does look like a value trap to me at this point (together with most other big banks)

Isn’t the portfolio going down further? Banks are sliding day after day, trumping the apple gain

As I said, most likely he bought nothing material

Bank has been weak since the market low, and WFC was esp. weak. High probability there is another leg down from this level

In other words it's a financial discipline issue. Is there any FCF focused energy company ? This is the small bet I've made with XOM. <5% position but I would like to build to a 5% position in the next month or so. How do you value XOM? XOM doesn’t look cheap to me, except they go back to peak earnings in 2012 or so. It’s just plain overvalued. So many better options out there (not in energy though) That’s the problem, I am not sure the model works at any crude price. Even the majors had problem living within their ash flows at $80-100/brl. The costs have shown a lot of elasticity , both on the way up, as well as on the way doen. Based on FCF, the majors were never cheap. You have to assume that the future is different than the past in order to be successful and more than just a higher crude price is needed. Labor cost, day rate inflation. Marginal projects getting approved. It’s what happens in industries that like to play on the margin. Typically in the past there was a delay due to long project lead times, but when shale started to dominate, the costs and the prices track each other closer.

what's the reason for the cost elasticity ? This is the small bet I've made with XOM. <5% position but I would like to build to a 5% position in the next month or so. How do you value XOM? XOM doesn’t look cheap to me, except they go back to peak earnings in 2012 or so. It’s just plain overvalued. So many better options out there (not in energy though) That’s the problem, I am not sure the model works at any crude price. Even the majors had problem living within their ash flows at $80-100/brl. The costs have shown a lot of elasticity , both on the way up, as well as on the way doen. Based on FCF, the majors were never cheap. You have to assume that the future is different than the past in order to be successful and more than just a higher crude price is needed.

I don't even know how to value these big oils what's the long term oil price should we assume? $40 ? This is the small bet I've made with XOM. <5% position but I would like to build to a 5% position in the next month or so. How do you value XOM? XOM doesn’t look cheap to me, except they go back to peak earnings in 2012 or so. It’s just plain overvalued. So many better options out there (not in energy though)

JPM just said it would suspend dividend if situation turns much worse

why much larger? It should be clarified the voluntary actuals cuts are way below that number. the rest of the so-called "cuts" are economically driven cuts by higher-cost producers that no longer have a viable option. Bottom line I guess it doesn't matter, the Kingdom and Kremlin's intend was to have some supply-side destruction through economically driven cuts by higher-cost producers. 5 years down the line, I suspect the duo will be looking at a much larger, centralized U.S.-based oil and gas industry.

There is a very big chance that Berkshire didn't take adv of this market melt-down in any meaningful way, and came out to surprise shareholders greatly I think he is buying. With that said, he did tell the world that he was buying in Oct 2008...in which the market drop another 20%+ after.

A few bad news related to this name, not sure if fully priced in: 1. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-banks-dividends/uk-banks-scrap-dividends-on-coronavirus-fears-pressure-on-bonuses-idUSKBN21I3AN UK banks halt dividends due to gov pressure. They are reasonably capitalized so not sure if US banks will follow 2. I think more importantly, there is some worry about mortgage impairment recently that's getting intense. Seems we need to regulator to lighten up some regulation so banks don't need to take a big hit to their capital when they provide some relief to borrowers in temporary difficulty (like 3 months) -- without it banks may dive

If the 10y stays at today's level, what's the fair value of a big bank? 1x tangible? 1.5x?

Isn’t cast precision part of the manufacturing ? Double accounting?

To me, the following paragraph is the most relevant one for an average Joe: "here’s a pathway towards financial independence. 1. Work hard, get an education, develop a valuable skill. Munger didn’t start Facebook from his dorm room or trade penny stocks in high school. He served in the military, earned a law degree, and went to work everyday for years. At this point, work means exchanging your time for money, but hopefully at a good hourly rate. 2. Use that work career and save up 10x living expenses. Munger called himself a “cautious little squirrel” saving up a pile of nuts. He dutifully saved his salary while supporting a family and kids (and some other personal family drama that a luckier person wouldn’t have to deal with). I don’t think you’ll need 10x if you don’t have a family to support. 3. To accelerate wealth accumulation, you can now take some more risk and start some sort of business. You need something that scales, something that’s not paid per hour. Munger did real estate development. If you look at people who got wealthy quickly, nearly all of them are business owners of some type. 4. At some point, your investments will enough money to support your living expenses. This is financial independence. It doesn’t matter what you do during the day, as you earn enough money while you’re sleeping. However, many people choose to continue doing one of the paths above: (1) employee-based career, (2) active business management, or (3) actively managing their investments. " Say now you passed stage 2, how should you move to step 3? I think many folks are facing this choice. Many do stocks but I don't think for most ppl it's a good choice for step 3 b/c 1. it's not scalable 2. it usually doesn't provide stable income 3. it's very dangerous to use leverage on stocks Munger did real estate development at stage 3. I still think real estate in some form (agency, re-modeling, rental business of some sort of...) is still the best choice for stage 3 for most ppl Any other suggestion?

This is motivated by the biography thread :D Munger may say "the decline and fall of the roman empire" ...... Yuval's "Sapiens:" also came to my mind but it's not a typical history book