Spekulatius Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 LAMR I hope you are well. LAforeverHall (formerly known as ScottHall) mentioned it on twitter and it’s interesting. The Billboards business certainly will be affected in the near term, but mid/long term I can see this bouncing back quickly.
Uccmal Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 Raised cash - about 20% now. Moved most non-dividend paying holdings into 2 year ITM LEAP exposure. Probably will sit tight for a bit and raise some more cash over the next few weeks, see how this whole thing (starts) to shake out as we approach the warmer months. I have been buying puts on the up bounces. Sold some stock, some profitable, some at a loss. Probably a net of zero. I cleared all my long orders. The puts are my currency to buy Leaps later on. I figure the US Covid case load exceeds China by Monday morning.
LC Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 Raised cash - about 20% now. Moved most non-dividend paying holdings into 2 year ITM LEAP exposure. Probably will sit tight for a bit and raise some more cash over the next few weeks, see how this whole thing (starts) to shake out as we approach the warmer months. I have been buying puts on the up bounces. Sold some stock, some profitable, some at a loss. Probably a net of zero. I cleared all my long orders. The puts are my currency to buy Leaps later on. I figure the US Covid case load exceeds China by Monday morning. I am doing the same but with selling short-tenor (1-3 month) calls on the dividend-paying portion of my portfolio. Difficult to exit sometimes, perhaps puts are better in that regards.
pterhx Posted March 21, 2020 Posted March 21, 2020 I have been buying puts on the up bounces. Sold some stock, some profitable, some at a loss. Probably a net of zero. I cleared all my long orders. The puts are my currency to buy Leaps later on. I figure the US Covid case load exceeds China by Monday morning. I've also been buying puts. I started a short position recently on the VIX to hedge off some volatility, but not nearly enough. Exited some of my puts today because I'm not sure if volatility will remain at record highs.
CorpRaider Posted March 21, 2020 Posted March 21, 2020 LAMR I hope you are well. LAforeverHall (formerly known as ScottHall) mentioned it on twitter and it’s interesting. The Billboards business certainly will be affected in the near term, but mid/long term I can see this bouncing back quickly. I am feeling a great deal better thanks. Today was the first real day with nearly normal feeling chest movement. Opened all the windows etc the last couple of days for some fresh air as it has been warm here. Yeah, it seems like a pretty good business long term. Just nibbling. Seems pretty levered, but in better shape than OUT and CCO. I told myself a while ago I would buy at ~ 8x EBITDA. I wonder if they haven't all screwed the business up and made it more cyclical (running right into a period when no one will be outdoor to see their ads) by putting up all these electronic screens. Apparently, yes those digital ads are more responsive, but the contracts are also a lot shorter (as you might expect versus a crew gluing something up there). Bought some BOMN below book earlier this week too. Of course that is their main business and I think they much better b/s. Might be good time for them to do some buying.
Viking Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 Bought a bunch of stuff this morning. Now 35% invested and 65% cash. - 11% Berkshire (gives exposure to Apple, US financials, insurance, utilities) - 4% google, microsoft, facebook - 2% fortis gas (TSE) - 1% Bell (TSE), Verizon, at&t, nike, disney, starbucks, General dynamics, abbvie, suncor - 0.5% west fraser timber (TSE), rogers sugar (TSE) Will buy more on weakness...
flesh Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 nc, tse, brk.b, bk Nc's ev/ebit or ebitda is 1.7-1.9 Tse at less than 3x/mkt cap normalized fcf. Big divvy and buyback. Lots of cash. Insiders buying at current price.
Lance Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 Small adds to: D, DUK, PPL, SO, UTG ABBV, THW ADM, MO, PM T DIS BAC, BX, PBCT, WFC PH DD XOM New position in Heico and small adds to a few Vanguard funds Thanks Lance
gokou3 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 Added to BPY. Even if retail and LP are both $0, the office NAV alone is still above the current market cap.
CorpRaider Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 Small adds to: D, DUK, PPL, SO, UTG ABBV, THW ADM, MO, PM T DIS BAC, BX, PBCT, WFC PH DD XOM New position in Heico and small adds to a few Vanguard funds Thanks Lance Yeah I was just looking at those UTEs for grandma. WTF is up with those yields. Seems like D is going to maybe issue some stock "for liquidity" but I didn't see anything on DUK. If memory serves, you crushed it if you bought utilities during the great depression.
shhughes1116 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 The price action has been pretty...brutal...in utilities. Hard to say if there is any relationship, but I have often wondered about the relationship between Seeking Alpha and certain "income producing stocks" in the market. A lot of the content on Seeking Alpha, in the recent past, has been pedaling all sorts of "income producing stocks", even as they reached nose-bleed levels. I have to think a lot of weak-hands were pushed into these stocks, and are now fleeing, hence the awful price action.
JRM Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 How much longer are regulated utilities going to be allowed to over-earn? They have never made more money between the agreed rate of return (typically close to 10%) and the cost of capital. When taxes were lowered they were required to pass the savings on to the customer. When rate makers get wise they will go after this margin, too. Back in the day utilities were a growth industry. It started with refrigeration and then air conditioning. Maybe electric vehicles will be the next great growth phase, otherwise we are in a flat to declining load growth. I tend to think EVs will be the next growth phase. With that said, PEs of 30 are probably not justified for your average utility even with low interest rates. I wonder how many pension funds are getting annihilated right now?
texual Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 Berkshire Hathaway B Bank of America IBM Mastercard Seritage Growth Properties
Castanza Posted March 24, 2020 Posted March 24, 2020 Have been trading BRK and GOOG the past two weeks with good success with about 20% of my cash pile while also establishing a long position. A bottom is a best guess at this point. Near term, the only thing that seems likely to continue is high volatility. Why not use this to your advantage on stocks you would feel comfortable holding? Anyone else on the trading?
LC Posted March 24, 2020 Posted March 24, 2020 Have been trading BRK and GOOG the past two weeks with good success with about 20% of my cash pile while also establishing a long position. A bottom is a best guess at this point. Near term, the only thing that seems likely to continue is high volatility. Why not use this to your advantage on stocks you would feel comfortable holding? Anyone else on the trading? Kind of. Doing the same in terms of establishing long position. Then selling call options against the position on big up days, and closing them out on down days.
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