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nspo

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  1. How long until he cries on CNBC and talks his book again?
  2. Picked up a starter in NTGR. A Deep-dive thesis included. https://edgarallenroef1c.substack.com/p/netgear-deep-dive?r=68eha&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=copy
  3. It's weird that I was just searching old PCYO thread today... I'll take that as a sign Bought some PCYO, NTDOY
  4. CVS getting some love here. I also added a tiny bit. I initiated a starter position. Still finishing up my research. Looks compelling at current valuation with mid/high single digit growth.
  5. Thanks for sharing guys. While these are rare, I love getting an idea of what people were thinking at that point in time. Seems like it was extremely obvious to the analyst in each case (based on verbiage), and thesis seemed to be pretty simple. Kind of like the Buffett adage (has to hit you over the head).
  6. Wanted to compile good reports on multi-baggers. Some pitches that come to mind are Dominoes in 2011, XPEL in 2018, Hawaiian Holdings 2012, Microsoft in 2011 and Apple in 2016. With hindsight being 20/20 nearly all these valuations were far too conservative. What is your "meat of the bone" opinion on what characteristics they share? Please add your own to the list. https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/Dominos/0279779048 https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/XPEL_TECHNOLOGIES_CORP/2951964403 http://quinzedix.blogspot.com/2012/07/hawaiian-holdings-air-transport.html https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/MICROSOFT_CORP/3182922554 https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/APPLE_INC/4003116338
  7. Congrats on the play! I think I'm going to make a citizens arrest on anyone mentioning OSTK from here on out ;D... I had a decent amount of calls that expired in March... Guess I should've rolled those puppies huh?? I feel like vomiting when I look at the price...
  8. Tepper, Klarman, N. Lou. I can't stand Ackman, the guy seems like an absolute D-bag. Lack of humility is a no-go for me.
  9. With this in mind, what investments look attractive, whether commodities, equities, or fixed income, to everyone? Each investment mention must be outlined in the following format: 1) The idea 2) Consensus view/expectations 3) Your variant perception 4) A catalyst Go get em!
  10. As fundamental analysts, we constantly hear that if you do good valuation work you'll be rewarded in 2-5 years. Taking a contrarian view, does this mean you can be valuation agnostic under a 2-year time frame? I bring this up because of a few articles I read on Michael Steinhardt. He was able to piece together an extremely long track record of 30% gross returns. The articles mention that he didn't have strict rules or a valuation framework. What he tried to do was to use a variant perception. He had an innate ability to think differently from the crowd. Likewise, Stan Druck uses a different way to think about the World and relies far less on a valuation framework, as he typically takes views from 6-24 MO. My goal is to challenge convention here and think outside of the box. - Some concerns: 1) I'm being extremely selective and not considering the graveyard of similar managers who have failed 2) The managers I mention think more macro and tend not to operate strictly in the equity markets. If anyone has some valuation reversion studies I'd love to see them. I believe this approach can't be discredited and is plausible as a way to gain above-average results.
  11. Obviously a value guy here but have to give some of his thoughts deep consideration. Knowing who's on the other side of the trade (passive) and where those flows are likely to head/what makes them tick. Being a big follower of Klarman he speaks on the other side of passive weaknesses. Where you can take advantage of indiscriminate selling due to specific mandates at the fund level. Buy from passives (uneconomic selling ie dividend cuts) and selling to passives above intrinsic (buyer at any price) sounds like nirvana to me 8)
  12. It's interesting to hear someone make the case for upside volatility. Something of a rarity because of everyone's interest in world-ending black swans. It pays to take a balanced view sometimes, right? He's definitely one of the high-IQ types with tons of worldly wisdom. FYI, I asked him a few questions via Twitter DM and he responded almost immediately.
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