boilermaker75 Posted January 27, 2020 Posted January 27, 2020 Been writing GILD puts, would like to acquire some with a basis < $63. Wrote some more 63-strike, Jan 31 expiration puts for $0.60 per share.
no_free_lunch Posted January 27, 2020 Posted January 27, 2020 bought back some msgn I have to admit, it is looking very cheap at these levels. Something like 5-6x fcf if I remember the numbers correctly. Do you have any insight into what has sparked the selloff?
KJP Posted January 27, 2020 Posted January 27, 2020 bought back some msgn I have to admit, it is looking very cheap at these levels. Something like 5-6x fcf if I remember the numbers correctly. Do you have any insight into what has sparked the selloff? Look at MSGN sub losses over the last few quarters and look at, for example, Comcast's recent commentary on its expected video sub losses in 2020. Then look at how MSGN earns revenue versus how it pays MSG for rights and see how MSGN would be squeezed in the event continuing sub losses overwhelm the per-sub price escalators built into its contracts with video providers. You can see a scenario in which FCF isn't what it used to be. Of course, there are also potential upside scenarios as well.
Gregmal Posted January 27, 2020 Posted January 27, 2020 Basically, theres a huge concentration of subs with Comcast and Altice/Optimum. Both of which have potential renewal issues. Much has been discussed on the MSGN thread previously, and now on top of that, you have the fact that the company was just willing to repurchase 25% of the shares at 16.75 and still have a sizable buyback in place, plus the resources to do much more. My investment confidence however still doesnt really involve sub counts or decline rates, although admittedly, that will drive this thing short term. But on an absolutely basis, the rights to televise Knicks and Ranger games is worth something, and theres no way its worth less than what the Cincinnati Reds or whomever else are worth. To someone like Amazon the acquisition is a rounding error but could be reasonably impactful to certain of their own ventures. Or, it can be reacquired by the MSG stub which is was spun out from. A lot of ways to win. In the meantime all the FCF will go toward repurchases and debt reduction.
cknucks Posted January 27, 2020 Posted January 27, 2020 BRK.B...have to be nearing 1.3x on Q4 book value once that gets reported.
Gregmal Posted January 28, 2020 Posted January 28, 2020 Did some repositioning. Finished exiting GM stock and transferred into slightly larger share equivalent $30 calls. Closed my GM puts as well. Its either gonna go or its not. My stop loss built in with the strike, and after about a half decade, if it doesnt perk up Im fine having been wrong and calling it a day here. Exited 30% of BX and replaced it with BRK.B and SPG. Reduced some margin in the process.
Cardboard Posted January 28, 2020 Posted January 28, 2020 Bought more SPY puts. After 2 days following my initial trade I am pretty convinced that the game is over ala 2000 in 2020.
Guest cherzeca Posted January 29, 2020 Posted January 29, 2020 Bought more SPY puts. After 2 days following my initial trade I am pretty convinced that the game is over ala 2000 in 2020. aren't these puts expensive? can you be a value investor paying a premium for safety?
Guest Posted January 29, 2020 Posted January 29, 2020 Bought more SPY puts. After 2 days following my initial trade I am pretty convinced that the game is over ala 2000 in 2020. Predicting a 50% drop on S&P 500 and 80% drop on Nasdaq? ???
LC Posted January 29, 2020 Posted January 29, 2020 I think more likely is a stagnant or slowly declining market, I've been selling calls.
boilermaker75 Posted January 29, 2020 Posted January 29, 2020 I think more likely is a stagnant or slowly declining market, I've been selling calls. LC, Are these covered calls? Also if you don't mind saying, on what stocks? Thanks, Boiler
LC Posted January 29, 2020 Posted January 29, 2020 Yes mostly covered calls on the full position in the account (e.g. if I have 950 shares I would write 10 contracts and cover the remainder with margin) Wrote on about 1/3 of my portfolio on: Altria/Philip Morris, AT&T, Visa, Iron Mtn 2-3 month expiration, was paid about 2-4%. OOM strikes by 5-7%. I plan on closing the contracts about a week prior to any ex-dividend dates where there is a high (judgmental) probability of being called. Which as of right now does not appear likely. And then I'll roll over the contracts again for another few months, unless sales & earnings really seem to be catching up with valuations. I've also been pretty lax with my documentation here. Sold MMM yesterday (ugh - industrial activity looks weak, glad to come away with more than I put in but still disappointing); Sold Waste Mgmt a few days ago; Sold ADS a few weeks ago; Sold Paypal (rolled into Visa). Proceeds went into opening a position in AT&T, paying down some margin, adding about equally to the names mentioned above; and one tiny corporate event. I'm fully invested but looking to hedge via covered calls on more of my portfolio if I can get good prices & low risk of execution. The other thing is I have relatively substantial 401k/stock grants which are invested in SPY index and a certain high-flying tech company. So I am looking to maintain about 30-50% total upside exposure from these two positions. Even there I am debating re-allocating the 401K outside of SPY and into something more defensive, but my options are limited and that has historically been a bad idea.
Castanza Posted January 29, 2020 Posted January 29, 2020 Wrote Covered Put Feb 28 CMCSA $42 at 0.43 T $36 for 0.27 Wrote Covered Call Feb 28 CSCO $50 for 0.53
gfp Posted January 29, 2020 Posted January 29, 2020 Just curious - when you say covered put are you short those stocks or are you just planning to keep the cash available through expiry? Wrote Covered Put Feb 28 CMCSA $42 at 0.43 T $36 for 0.27 Wrote Covered Call Feb 28 CSCO $50 for 0.53
Castanza Posted January 29, 2020 Posted January 29, 2020 Just curious - when you say covered put are you short those stocks or are you just planning to keep the cash available through expiry? Wrote Covered Put Feb 28 CMCSA $42 at 0.43 T $36 for 0.27 Wrote Covered Call Feb 28 CSCO $50 for 0.53 Cash looking to enter/add to position
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 29, 2020 Posted January 29, 2020 Bought more SPY puts. After 2 days following my initial trade I am pretty convinced that the game is over ala 2000 in 2020. Care to PM me your thoughts on this? I also own minor puts on SPY & QQQ - but was doing it primarily due to the cheapness of VIX and only using proceeds from covered call sales. A little scared to re-enter heavily. Have lost money on puts nearly every time I entered them in a big way. Thought I was going to turn it all around in 2018 with decelerating economic indicators, cheap options, and etc but Q4 smoked me and ensured I had a sizable loss on puts. Still looking at leading indicators, corporate profits, treasury rates/curve, and etc and think it's pretty clear we're continuing to decelerate, but less excited to lose money betting on that again. Do you have a process or thoughts on how you structure/size the positions as well as when you enter/exit? I seem to do better when I trade the positions rather than hold them but then it's not a hedge for the portfolio - just swing trading for small profits.
Cardboard Posted January 30, 2020 Posted January 30, 2020 "Care to PM me your thoughts on this?" Ever read my book: "Cardboard on Cardboard"? Typical seasonal high is about to come or when people get their tax bill. Market has been marching straight up since early October. China economy is shut down for at least 1 week after end of 2 week holidays and it could last longer. Revenues are anemic (another thread on that) and everything has been about climbing valuation. Democrats are being ignored and one of the crazies has a good chance to win nomination. TLT is flashing red. GLD is flashing red. Oil is flashing red. Copper is flashing red. A year or so ago they were scared shitless about a potential slowdown due to trade war. Now we have 20% of world GDP effectively shutdown and the market is not worried about forward earnings? I could be very wrong on this. Although your post encourages me as shorts have given up.
Guest cherzeca Posted January 30, 2020 Posted January 30, 2020 "Now we have 20% of world GDP effectively shutdown..." referring to china I presume. well, an exaggeration but I get your point. but isn't china slowdown a bigger delta to their exports than imports? isn't a slowdown in china something the US should not fear?
Saluki Posted January 30, 2020 Posted January 30, 2020 Added a little SRG (close to the price Buffett bought at during the SHLD spinoff, but the company looks much better than it did 3 years ago), and a little FB and BRK and STNG. Nothing to write home about but just deployed the rest of my cash (about 1%).
Lance Posted January 31, 2020 Posted January 31, 2020 Trimmed IAU, SLV and TLT. Bought BP. Thanks Lance
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