kab60 Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 Added to BERY and SAVE the other day below 45 and 40 and took at small position in GUD
BG2008 Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 Added to BERY and SAVE the other day below 45 and 40 and took at small position in GUD BERY should be interesting with the next couple quarters of earnings. Down 6% volume wise last year may easily convert into up 2-4% this year which still means down 2-4%, but market will likely like it given the current P/FCF. Refinancing at 1% and 1.5% means an extra $30-40mm of interest savings.
kab60 Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 Added to BERY and SAVE the other day below 45 and 40 and took at small position in GUD BERY should be interesting with the next couple quarters of earnings. Down 6% volume wise last year may easily convert into up 2-4% this year which still means down 2-4%, but market will likely like it given the current P/FCF. Refinancing at 1% and 1.5% means an extra $30-40mm of interest savings. Yep. If they can grow volumes narrative should change, and debt paydown plus further refi down the line should add nicely to FCF. What nags me a bit is whether their size will start to constrain them down the line in that there are not enough acquisitions that move the needle, but that's some years away and market is still very fragmented. In a 2 pct rate environment I don't see why this should trade at a double digit yield either way.
John Hjorth Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 ... What nags me a bit is whether their size will start to constrain them down the line in that there are not enough acquisitions that move the needle, but that's some years away and market is still very fragmented. ... kab60, Nothing ever come easy. With a serial acquirer, based on strong operational execution & proved capital allocation skills, you'll never get over the question: "What is the next one, and how will that one look like for me?" It's just a part of the game, if you invest in [to me, great] stuff like this [bERY].
gjangal Posted January 16, 2020 Posted January 16, 2020 Added to BERY and SAVE the other day below 45 and 40 and took at small position in GUD SAVE is interesting here. Cheap and has some growth in it. It is / has opened flying to a wider set of people. Probably has also increased the frequency of flying for some people. Looks cheap with growth. Plane problems in the future be damned, people wanna fly Thanks for the idea
Spekulatius Posted January 16, 2020 Posted January 16, 2020 CRBP Interesting clinical candidate with an unmet need. It looks to me like they will need to raise cash with a secondary very soon though. It shouldn't be too difficult to raise money (they've already done some licensing deals - one with a Japanese major and they also got some funds from CF foundation). Their Ph 3 results for Lenabasum should most likely be great (their Ph2 data and recent hiring shows they are prepping for approval) - out in a few months. Stock is ripping. Up 60% since this above discussion. Funnily i discovered this stock from a podcast where a healthcare VC with a great track record was pounding the table on it like crazy. Yes, stock has rebounded substantially. Would you mind disclosing the podcast? I am constantly looking for new material.
Spekulatius Posted January 16, 2020 Posted January 16, 2020 Would you mind disclosing the podcast? I am constantly looking for new material. Sal Daher's podcast on iOS Thanks, this “Angel Invest Boston” podcast is a great podcast series, especially since I live in the greater Boston area. Subscribed.
Stuart D Posted January 16, 2020 Posted January 16, 2020 2222.HK: I initially bought this at 20c a month or so back and then have been adding at 22-28c. Discovered accidentally when KKR bought a majority stake in one of their companies and i saw it in the paper. Just the residual 30% stake in that venture is worth more than the current market cap at that transacted value. Significant net cash plus their remaining biz which is growing well would be worth atleast twice that residual stake. I reckon NAV to be around ~50-60c. Nice idea, thanks for sharing.
spartansaver Posted January 16, 2020 Posted January 16, 2020 ARPO - Aerpio Pharmaceuticals - Trading below net cash and the company announced in Oct. that it is reviewing strategic alternatives and streamlining operations to preserve cash. Cash at the end of Q4 will probably end around 38mn, and I expect that R&D should be minimal going forward. Perhaps $2mn cash flow burn per quarter. Current market cap is $25mn, so maybe 1.5 years before the company cash starts trending below current market cap. The company has ~$400mn in possible royalty payments, and at the end of phase 1 development for an eye pressure/glaucoma drug (eye pressure drug will only be developed on a partnership basis going forward). CEO owns ~14% of company.
boilermaker75 Posted January 16, 2020 Posted January 16, 2020 Wrote 50-strike, Jan 17 expiration, WFC puts for $0.41 per share Wrote some 48.5-strike, Jan 17 expiration, EFC puts for $0.25 per share this morning. Hopefully this was a better point than my last write!
Broeb22 Posted January 16, 2020 Posted January 16, 2020 In short: The business solves a problem for its customers (vets) The end market is attractive (pet care) given its recession-resistance The valuation looks increasingly attractive given a price for the entire enterprise of $2.3 billion and unlevered free cash from the legacy Henry Schein business of about $150 million, giving us a 6.7% unlevered free cash yield on just Henry Schein. This effectively values Vets First Choice, which is why everyone was so excited about the stock in the first place, at zero. I've purchased twice now, once around $13 per share and again yesterday below $11. It's a small position for me given the leverage and somewhat limited free cash flow. In a downturn, they will generate cash from inventory liquidation, but still the free cash could be ugly and people who don't understand the business now really won't want to own it in a downturn. So, I've left some room to average down further because I think I could get a chance to. https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&sourceid=csplusresearchcp&document_id=1080485861&serialid=LwV70A1WGcAVwyFsrunHo7%2BWJh%2FyveCGDQap19XIDWs%3D&cspId=1928917291656192000 To invert this, with CVET doing poorly, it seems that HSIC (from which CVET was spun off) dodged a bullet and ought to be a better business now. It seems reasonably valued too. I put it on my watch list together with CVET. I would be more inclined to buy HSIC here than CVET. Returns since this post: CVET 34.4%; HSIC 12.2%.
Gregmal Posted January 16, 2020 Posted January 16, 2020 In short: The business solves a problem for its customers (vets) The end market is attractive (pet care) given its recession-resistance The valuation looks increasingly attractive given a price for the entire enterprise of $2.3 billion and unlevered free cash from the legacy Henry Schein business of about $150 million, giving us a 6.7% unlevered free cash yield on just Henry Schein. This effectively values Vets First Choice, which is why everyone was so excited about the stock in the first place, at zero. I've purchased twice now, once around $13 per share and again yesterday below $11. It's a small position for me given the leverage and somewhat limited free cash flow. In a downturn, they will generate cash from inventory liquidation, but still the free cash could be ugly and people who don't understand the business now really won't want to own it in a downturn. So, I've left some room to average down further because I think I could get a chance to. https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&sourceid=csplusresearchcp&document_id=1080485861&serialid=LwV70A1WGcAVwyFsrunHo7%2BWJh%2FyveCGDQap19XIDWs%3D&cspId=1928917291656192000 To invert this, with CVET doing poorly, it seems that HSIC (from which CVET was spun off) dodged a bullet and ought to be a better business now. It seems reasonably valued too. I put it on my watch list together with CVET. I would be more inclined to buy HSIC here than CVET. Returns since this post: CVET 34.4%; HSIC 12.2%. To be fair, everything is up huge during this timeframe. Except maybe smart money hedge fund guys who are probably up like 1.5%.
Broeb22 Posted January 17, 2020 Posted January 17, 2020 I’ll take it any way I can get it. CVET divesting a non core division for a little more than $100 million gives me confidence that new mgmt. understands the situation and isn’t wasting time.
Spekulatius Posted January 17, 2020 Posted January 17, 2020 I’ll take it any way I can get it. CVET divesting a non core division for a little more than $100 million gives me confidence that new mgmt. understands the situation and isn’t wasting time. CVET is a pretty levered bet. It can go up an down a lot. I think the last quarterly earnings report which wasn’t as bad as thought turned the stock around. Congrats to the win. I have kept it on my watchlist and will keep watching it.
Gregmal Posted January 18, 2020 Posted January 18, 2020 Added a little CTO. Always amusing how the brainiacs at these "institutional" firms can be so stupid. Yea...great time to liquidate your funds position; 3 days before Xmas, during blackout... LOL dopes I was looking at this stock for some year end dislocations, but there isn’t much volume. I don’t think their last acquisition indicates that management is selective about where to put their money either. Shopping malls in Jacksonville ? http://ir.ctlc.com/file/Index?KeyFile=401493134 The main driver right now, as you pointed out, is probably the volume. Any half observant investor sees that, yet Mr. Institution somehow just decided to blow out 250k+ shares in what seems to be a few days...genius. I wanted to double check my cynicism, but a look at the rest of the V3 portfolio was just as baffling and confirmed that these guys just have poor judgment. I am having a hard time reconciling the volumes, so perhaps the company took some of the shares privately, although Im almost positive theyre currently in a blackout, so not sure how that works. But what an idiot. They've been monsters repurchasing shares since Winters left and would have happily taken down those shares if this guy wasn't interested in packing up and going on vacation....I'm all for using 4% debt to buy as many shares $15+ below the low end of NAV. The Jacksonville purchase isn't totally out of nowhere. They already owned several outparcels at St Johns from another deal. Simon owns the other half and its a very upscale retail corridor. I can live with it at a mid-high single digit cap rate and their track record in Florida, which is very good. I'd rather they stick to Florida than try to be heroes buying crap like Party City and Joanne's up in NY and MA...I also think the property serves other purposes; mainly I believe it will be mortgaged in order to retire the convertible note in early March. Getting rid of that poison pill is huge and basically puts the company in play. Either way, at a $280M m/c and a few upcoming catalysts, its one of the few things not nosebleed expensive right now I justify chucking money at a little bit. So this obviously worked out on little basis other than just the stupidity of a "smart money institutional investor" guy dumping 5% of the shares inside of a few days...but on the subject of Jacksonville real estate, check out the attached flyer. I really dont get it. I would never in my wildest dreams pay this type of dollar for assets like this.....but plenty of people do. Theres also stuff like this https://wolferetailgroup.com/properties/7-eleven-4/ Pure insanity. But nevertheless compelling if you own a good chunk of this type of asset. EDIT: OM appears to be blocked in attachment, but property can be viewed here. https://www.crexi.com/properties/282906/florida-red-lobster?crexi_url_type=2&eblast_position=1&subtemplateId=15&templateId=50&utm_source=Internal&utm_medium=Retail_MarcusMillichap_VA_NC_IN_MO_MN_KY_OH_TX_CA_FL_IL_&utm_campaign=1_3_20_12_00 Red Lobster in Jacksonville- 5.5 capRL32218.pdf
chrispy Posted January 21, 2020 Posted January 21, 2020 OLLI and EVI I've noticed OLLI is at a 52w low, and quite low over the past few years. Any additional thoughts you would like to share?
Broeb22 Posted January 21, 2020 Posted January 21, 2020 OLLI and EVI I've noticed OLLI is at a 52w low, and quite low over the past few years. Any additional thoughts you would like to share? I'm a novice retail investor buying into a founder-led business that just lost its founder suddenly. This probably ends badly but I'm betting that off-price retail has some staying power and that Ollie's will be able to achieve at least part of its growth plan to triple its store count. The stock isn't cheap today at low 20's multiple of 2020 P/E but if they can grow EPS at 15% per year then I should be able to earn about 15% per year. I also have benefited from OLLI being located in my town so I get to walk through there a lot and its usually pretty busy in an area with lots of competing retail options.
SafetyinNumbers Posted January 22, 2020 Posted January 22, 2020 I added to Arrow Exploration (AXL.V) in the last few days. It’s a bit of a convoluted situation but it spun out of Canacol (CNE.TO) in the fall of 2018. CNE took back a note/cash and a kept a small equity stake while spinning out the rest to it’s shareholders. The cash raised by Arrow was through a private placement at US$1/share. Arrow was supposed to get a bank line soon after the spin but they did not get it done. The company finally began a strategic process in December 2019. The data room opened last week and my understanding is that quite a few CAs have been signed (but I don’t know that for a fact). The company also filed for a shareholder meeting for March 19 and apparently reflects Stifel’s confidence that there is enough time to get a deal done and papered in February, in time for a March 19 vote. It should be noted that the company still hasn’t had an AGM for 2018 so they needed to have a meeting before the end of March anyway. Stifel’s confidence makes sense to me. They helped AMER.L when it received a hostile bid from a French E&P last July and ended up selling to GPRK announced in November for a very big premium. What's interesting about that deal was that there were multiple well funded interested parties (as disclosed in the background section of the scheme filing). So many that AMER.L asked for cash bids only. AMER.L has 4x the production of AXL.V and sold for 13x the EV or over 20x the market cap. AXL.V production is a bit heavier so it should get a discount but the current discount seems too big. CNE has been exerting significant influence at the company despite their tiny equity stake and has even put its General Counsel as Chairman of AXL. This has made a lot of investors nervous. I think it opens up CNE to litigation if the equity is permanently impaired so the investment might be quite asymmetric. I think we’ll find out soon. https://www.stifel.com/docs/pdf/canada/arrow-intro-letter.pdf
Spekulatius Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 CRBP Interesting clinical candidate with an unmet need. It looks to me like they will need to raise cash with a secondary very soon though. It shouldn't be too difficult to raise money (they've already done some licensing deals - one with a Japanese major and they also got some funds from CF foundation). Their Ph 3 results for Lenabasum should most likely be great (their Ph2 data and recent hiring shows they are prepping for approval) - out in a few months. Stock is ripping. Up 60% since this above discussion. Funnily i discovered this stock from a podcast where a healthcare VC with a great track record was pounding the table on it like crazy. I assume this VC was Jeff Arnold in “Angel Invest Boston” podcast. that’s a great podcast and I subscribed to it. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/angel-invest-boston/id1180248689?i=1000442790546
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