Argentina

[formthirteen]

Latin America is trying hard to find out which system works:

 

https://twitter.com/devarbol/status/1726454671504716058

 

 

 

 

 

[rkbabang]

38 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

Latin America is trying hard to find out which system works:

 

https://twitter.com/devarbol/status/1726454671504716058

 

 

 

 

 

Now lets do the US.

 

 

 

[bizaro86]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Adopting the USD instead of the Peso imo is already a very bad idea, imo.

 

I think they need to have some sort of stable currency for the economy to function, and the peso has lost any semblance of trust. It's better for a country to have it's own currency (since it can control its own monetary policy according to domestic conditions) but I think they're past that. 

[rkbabang]

1 minute ago, bizaro86 said:

 

I think they need to have some sort of stable currency for the economy to function, and the peso has lost any semblance of trust. It's better for a country to have it's own currency (since it can control its own monetary policy according to domestic conditions) but I think they're past that. 

 

 

It is not better that a country has the ability to control its money. That's the problem with fiat and why their money isn't worth anything to begin with.   The USD is better than the peso, because it's the world's reserve currency currently which let's the FED get away with a lot and the demand remains. But hopefully people there move to BTC over time because the USD isn't great either and if it loses reserve status (a certainty long term) they will be right back to where they started.  Using a worthless currency.  

[Spekulatius]

44 minutes ago, bizaro86 said:

 

I think they need to have some sort of stable currency for the economy to function, and the peso has lost any semblance of trust. It's better for a country to have it's own currency (since it can control its own monetary policy according to domestic conditions) but I think they're past that. 

The USD is not a solution for them. For once it will create a scarcity of cash and pot. blow up their banking system (or what remained of it). 

 

Milei needs to put a central bank leader in place who has some credibility and pull a Hjalmar Schacht like miracle. Inflation is always a political problem and with new leadership it's his job to address this.

 

Happy to be wrong here. In any case, this will be interesting.

Edited November 20, 2023 by Spekulatius

[james22]

LOL

[Spekulatius]

Very good summary of the historical background and the current situation in Argentina from Patrick Boyle:

 

[A Humble Man]

Thought we should continue this discussion. 
 

Any thoughts on:

1. dollarizarion,

2. inflation,

3. energy exports,

4. development of other industries aside from agriculture

5. last but not least, Milei himself?

[A Humble Man]

No one?

[formthirteen]

Milei flew economy class to Davos:

 

 

 

[ValueArb]

Thats a commercial flight, but not economy, looks like business class? Either way, impressive.

[Gamecock-YT]

as a plane nerd I think this is lufthansa business class. Most likely the 747-800 flying EZE-FRA.

[Spooky]

Does anyone know any good resources that go in depth on the history of Argentina's economic problems?

[rkbabang]

A good article on Milei, what he’s up against and can likely accomplish. Written by Bryan Caplan a libertarian-leaning economics professor at George Mason University.

 

https://betonit.substack.com/p/will-milei-make-argentina-great-again

 

[Pelagic]

9 hours ago, rkbabang said:

A good article on Milei, what he’s up against and can likely accomplish. Written by Bryan Caplan a libertarian-leaning economics professor at George Mason University.

 

https://betonit.substack.com/p/will-milei-make-argentina-great-again

 

A sobering look at just how long real policy change can take.

 

Quote

Optimistically, Milei could close a quarter of the economic policy gap between Argentina and Chile after two four-year terms.

 

[valueventures]

First monthly budget surplus in 12 years: https://www.barrons.com/news/argentina-sees-first-monthly-budget-surplus-in-12-years-a148e46a

 

 

[Morgan]

No matter happens, this will be interesting to see the outcome.

[Spekulatius]

On 1/22/2024 at 10:34 AM, Pelagic said:

A sobering look at just how long real policy change can take.

 

 

The important thing is to start going in the right direction far enough that the average person see some tangible progress.  That makes it likely that whoever is going to be elected next keeps doing the same thing.

[Spekulatius]

Just one think tanks opinion after one year of Milei being in office:

https://www.freiheit.org/one-year-javier-mileis-economic-policy
 

I think they make a good point about Milei being too focused on inflation. Inflation is more a symptom than the disease and of course just like with fever, you need to stop it, but Argentina needs also to work on pro growth stuff like firing up exports (the overvalued of the Peso facilitated by him to limit inflation hampers this) and a few other things. Gutting the education system doesn’t sound like a great idea either since it basically stunts growth in human capital.
The economy also needs to turn around next year if his agenda is in trouble, because the a erase person is suffering quite a bit here and needs to see some tangible benefits, imo.

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

How it started (1 year ago): He's dangerous

 

How it's going: he has a lot of lessons to teach the world

 

Pretty funny 180 from The Economist (and many other pundits)

 

 

Edited December 1 by Dalal.Holdings

[jfan]