jjsto

What if there was a general rule of thumb that stated: "when the 3 month to 10 year yield curve is relatively flat and berkshire hathaway holds 30% of its market value in cash, then it is probably a good idea to have a shorter duration on your own fixed income portfolio." I much prefer the conservative current scenario (even if it doesn't exactly match the duration of liabilities) to the opposite of having longer duration in the current environment. Trying not to over think things.

Well, this will at least be interesting. At the age of 59, it seems very unlikely that a recreational player like Ackman could be more than around a 4.5usta or 8utr in singles. Jack Sock in his prime was a top 5 doubles player in my opinion. Had he focused on doubles and avoided injury, maybe he would still be top 5 doubles now at only 32. But, I don't know how much tennis he is actually playing, or if he is even in shape. I don't think pickleball helps prepare you for tennis at all... Tomic and Jasika are still current professional tennis players with 13+ utrs. Like OP said, maybe Sock can hold his serve a couple of times if he is feeling good, maybe. It seems like winning even a single point off of Ackman returning a first serve would be a challenge. I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess Sock has a good day and they get two games on his serve

Article from a couple of months ago on scale of family businesses. https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-trump-family-presidency-wealth/?ai=eyJpc1N1YnNjcmliZWQiOnRydWUsImFydGljbGVSZWFkIjpmYWxzZSwiYXJ0aWNsZUNvdW50IjowLCJ3YWxsSGVpZ2h0IjoxfQ==

The Gates Foundation has been woking on infectious diseases around the world for more than a decade. Just read their annual reports. There are probably very few people with his combination of real world experience and knowledge of infectious diseases. He will be on a cnn tonite at 8 pm with Dr Fauci. Viking's sarcasm went "whoosh" for this crowd... ::) LOL. Haha. True. Only recently reading this thread looking back at the last few days of posts, it is so politicized in parts, it is hard to tell what is sarcasm and what is said through political blinders. Sorry.

The Gates Foundation has been woking on infectious diseases around the world for more than a decade. Just read their annual reports. There are probably very few people with his combination of real world experience and knowledge of infectious diseases. He will be on a cnn tonite at 8 pm with Dr Fauci.

Didn’t see this posted yet. Bill Gates Ted talk from today.

Yeah, its hard to see a scenario down here where there isnt both inflation and a declining official peso in the short term. It is also hard to see where any type of robust economic growth could come from. Given the terrible economic climate valuations are low and falling. Maybe if the trend continues, a good idea would be to raise some private equity money and buy a company around +/- 3 times earnings.... http://www.ieco.clarin.com/economia/venta-empresas-argentinas-efecto-YPF_0_841715949.html

good stuff. thanks for posting.

20% cash 80% equities (3 stocks are about 50%)

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/06/14/retirement-guide-herro-europe/

Yeah that is a crazy connection. Never would have anticipated that...

Was about to post that. good stuff. thanks.

"My point was that Spain shouldn't be tossing around blame, when it's blatantly obvious that Spain's problems, and most definitely Greece's problems, were due to the culture, excesses and reliance on social benefits within their own countries. " "No one asked Ireland, Spain, Portugal or Greece to spend billions in excess of what could be supported by their GDP." I disagree with both of these statements with respect to Spain. Spain, in my mind, is not like Greece at all. They didnt use derivatives to hide their debts, they dont have the same level of corrupt culture, and their debt/gdp is around half of Greece right now. On the eve of the crisis (2007) Spain ran a budget surplus and had a debt to GDP ratio below 40%. Yes, they had a huge housing bubble and no one "forced" their population to buy too expensive homes. But, house ownership in Spain is one of the highest in the world at +80% and over 70% of household net worth is in homes. Loans in Spain are not non-recourse. Given that Spain had one of the largest real estate collapses in europe, it is no wonder that the economy was thrown into a "balance sheet" recession as most individual's balance sheets are impaired and cant be fixed by foreclosure. 28% of all homes built from 2001-2007 are vacant. Their government was just as blind during the build up of the real estate bubble up as was the US government. Unemployment is currently 25% (and over 50% for youth) and they don't have their own currency to devalue or use as a lender of last resort. What government could have fiscally survived a collapse like that without dramatically running a deficit? And what evidence is there that austerity applied to those conditions has any chance of working?

I have not checked the banks. Historically, I feel like banks here In the big picture, serve to finance the government, take money from their depositors, and make actually doing a transaction in a bank as time consuming and as difficult as possible. Also, a lot of the local banks are pretty opaque in their reporting. I am also not sure that being in "good standing" (friendly) with the Ks is a good thing when it comes to banking...But, some of them are definitely cheap. Personally, I put them in the "too hard" pile for myself. A friend of mine that is a value investor down here prefers Banco Frances.

The unofficial peso "contado" that has no restrictions in the bond market was quoted at 5.47 last thursday. In my opinion, it is physically impossible for growth/inflation to continue at the same rate over the next couple of years and at the same time maintain the current slow rate of depreciation in the peso. Something has to give. How big the shock will be, and when it will occur, I have no idea. One main effect right now of the new currency controls seems to be slowing the real estate market as most transactions occur in dollars, and they are difficult to come by now. That being said, the stock market is priced almost as if a severe crisis was occurring right now. Relative to income, many companies seem to be priced as cheap as they were in 08-09. There is almost no "local" investment in the stock market, and foreign investors are pretty nervous right now. Disclosure: I am long a small amount of CRESY and IRS and have been trying to find some APSA USD bonds over the counter...