Am I the only one here who's had a rubbish first Half of the year?

[thowed]

I know a bunch of you have done great things in 2026 (Officer with Liquidia, GFP picking stuff up with amazing timing etc.), but it just hasn't been working for me.

There have been one or two mistakes (e.g. trying to play oil - seemed obvious at the time) but generally longer-term holdings have just not had a great time.

 

Decent chunk of FFH, decent chunk of CSU & subsidiaries, TVK (unfortunate situation) and not trimming enough Gold & Royalties.  Recently buying Exchanges as they've continued to go down.  Not seeing the switch up at the end of March.  Ooof.

 

Other things have worked, thankfully, but I'm pretty flat for the year, which is quite the underperformance to the S&P.

Anyway, I know it's only 6 months, and I'm happy to leave these things to do their thing, as I'm not really a trader.  Just good to get it out sometimes.  Anyway, hopefully I'm the only one, but please grumble alongside me if you've struggled too.

[thepupil]

nope. my IBKR accounts (2/3 of assets i control) are up ~4.5% and SPY and REITs are up 9-11%. my fidelity accounts (the other 1/3) are up 8%. my 401k's and stuff (currently all TIPS) are up 8%-9%. Trust (which basically just owns global indices minus fees) and I don't control is up 8.5% or so. 

 

mediocre year so far. I've not been particularly excited about my portfolio for like 2-3 years. think generally have bought things at okay-ish discounts but actual value coming in a little shy of underwriting as my (mostly) real estate oriented stuff continues to grapple with money having an actual cost. feel like most of my ideas are pretty stale...been some small wins here and there but nothing too additive...the last few sell-offs (Iran / Tarriff / etc)...I've generally way outperformed as market fell, but then not really taken advantage of the bounce...there's a younger more aggressive version of me that would have rotated/found a way to make more on the way up...but that hasn't been me of late....i also just take less concentration/risks generally....i'm playing a little scared because...i don't want to give up the last ~6 years of wild gains over which my NW has like quintupled (inheritance + compounding + saving + a little bit better than mkt returns)...

 

Edited 20 hours ago by thepupil

[Saluki]

I've underperformed this year too. A some of my midsize positions (NTDOY, META and CPNG) got cut down by a lot, and a few others that did well last year are just trading sideways or down a little. 

 

It happens. You can't outperform in the long run and the short run.  

[Eldad]

@thowed I think we own a lot of the same stuff. CRAWA saved me last year and TFII this year. But it has been a struggle for 2 years. Don’t worry, I’m pretty sure that means you are doing it right. 

[Masterofnone]

Anyone with a high allocation to Berkshire and Fairfax has likely under-performed and if the name of this site in any way selects for those types, it is likely that many have lagged the markets. But so what? What is six months over a lifetime horizon?

[Castanza]

I only care about underperformance if I'm out of cash or more so think my thesis has changed on the companies I own and continue to buy. I in no way want massive exposure to SPY with 40%+ sitting in the MAG7 who has mostly underperformed. 

Edited 18 hours ago by Castanza

[Libs]

1 hour ago, thowed said:

I know a bunch of you have done great things in 2026 (Officer with Liquidia, GFP picking stuff up with amazing timing etc.), but it just hasn't been working for me.

There have been one or two mistakes (e.g. trying to play oil - seemed obvious at the time) but generally longer-term holdings have just not had a great time.

 

Decent chunk of FFH, decent chunk of CSU & subsidiaries, TVK (unfortunate situation) and not trimming enough Gold & Royalties.  Recently buying Exchanges as they've continued to go down.  Not seeing the switch up at the end of March.  Ooof.

 

Other things have worked, thankfully, but I'm pretty flat for the year, which is quite the underperformance to the S&P.

Anyway, I know it's only 6 months, and I'm happy to leave these things to do their thing, as I'm not really a trader.  Just good to get it out sometimes.  Anyway, hopefully I'm the only one, but please grumble alongside me if you've struggled too.

 

Me too. Flat YTD.

 

CSU, FFH, Terravest dragging me down.  Also bought AJG and BRO too early. These things happen......I'm not worried.

[ICUMD]

Ytd returns of 13%

1 yr return of 62%

 

Thanks to Canadian banks and good timing with Google purchase.  

 

Terrible timing with Go Easy.  

[gfp]

 

 

I'm up for the year to date but it's been hard-ass work.  Would have much preferred a peaceful buy and hold.

 

[lnofeisone]

Absent LQDA I'm up 2%. CPNG is a big detractor for me as it was about 15% of my portfolio. I'm not excited about my portfolio but I go to sleep knowing it's probably sound. 

[Whensthepaintdry?]

BRK, MKL, and FFH probably make up half of my portfolio, so I am under performing as well. I trimmed some google and boosted mkl and ffh on the big earnings drops which came around the same time Google hit its high. I am definitely lacking positions that add torque to a portfolio. 

[Sloanes Teddy]

down YTD with Fairfax, Stryker, and TCEHY causing most pain

[thowed]

Thanks to you all, wise words, but also good to. know there are a bunch of smart people out there in similar situations, and owning similar assets.

 

When you're doing this on your own, even though you know rationally your portfolio is full of good companies, it's still easy to doubt yourself.

 

And this sort of environment irritates me with all the Memory fanboys gloating.

[RichardGibbons]

I'm having a poor year, up about 6%.  The biggest detractor has been software stocks I bought back in December.

[Longnose]

I tend to make quite concentrated bets and it causes a lot of volatility in the YoY metrics. Down this year due to being heavily concentrated in ADBE. but i have long strong conviction and in some future period it will have an outsided return. Or who knows a few years from now ill be down 75% and ADBE will be at a PE of < 3 because AI is killing it while revenue continues to grow at 10% and i will continue to cry myself to sleep. 

[Red Lion]

I'm down 7% YTD, which is pretty terrible particularly considering the index performance. Eats up the last few years of outperformance. On the bright side, I feel good about my current portfolio composition. 

[Gregmal]

Am I the only one who's completely indifferent to anything that occurs in such a short time frame?

[Longnose]

11 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Am I the only one who's completely indifferent to anything that occurs in such a short time frame?

I don't really give a ____ when i look at my short term returns and they are negative.  That doesnt mean i dont look at it regularly and wish that the "thesis" would play out faster. 

 

Markets would recognize ADBE is the creative operating system for all enterprises. 

That Berkowitz would let the sell pressure rise faster for JOE. So the manamgent execution could shine instead of having his black cloud of selling over it. 

That my otc microcaps could get noticed for how sexy they are. 

 

But i know what I own and Im cool with whatever the market wants to rate them at. 

[rkbabang]

My returns have been abysmal lately.  My top positions are BTC, JOE, MSTR, and FRFHF in that order.  I’m back to where I was at the end of October 2024.  I don’t really care about short term results.  Lumpy returns are fine. BTC (and MSTR) will recover and continue growing, JOE will eventually break out higher and, of course, Fairfax is going to be just fine long term.  Why fret over short term returns?

[Spooky]

6 hours ago, thowed said:

I know a bunch of you have done great things in 2026 (Officer with Liquidia, GFP picking stuff up with amazing timing etc.), but it just hasn't been working for me.

There have been one or two mistakes (e.g. trying to play oil - seemed obvious at the time) but generally longer-term holdings have just not had a great time.

 

Decent chunk of FFH, decent chunk of CSU & subsidiaries, TVK (unfortunate situation) and not trimming enough Gold & Royalties.  Recently buying Exchanges as they've continued to go down.  Not seeing the switch up at the end of March.  Ooof.

 

Other things have worked, thankfully, but I'm pretty flat for the year, which is quite the underperformance to the S&P.

Anyway, I know it's only 6 months, and I'm happy to leave these things to do their thing, as I'm not really a trader.  Just good to get it out sometimes.  Anyway, hopefully I'm the only one, but please grumble alongside me if you've struggled too.

 

I'm in the same boat with some of the same stocks, S&P has been trouncing me lately. But I beat it for several years running prior to that, just got to play the long game and stick to your investing philosophy.

[Spooky]

4 hours ago, Castanza said:

MAG7 who has mostly underperformed. 

 

More like Lag 7

[brobro777]

I wouldn't put myself in da circular file but it really was terrible selling all my ES futures in April for bullshit gains, just to watch it rally another 800 points afterwards. And I also got smoked shorting silver in January, only to see it drop 50 points after I covered

 

Well at least tobacco is outperforming the markets...

[SharperDingaan]

6 month YTD return just isn't meaningfull, as todays stella numbers could quite easily turn into shit tomorrow. The key takeaway is what have you done today to avoid losing it if the market turns on you.

 

SD

[Valuebo]

Well, semi's are now 19.7% of the S&P500 and 0DTE's are over half of daily retail volume. Something tells me this won't last.

 

Overall the market is not that crazy expensive but we have earnings growth coming out of our ears through semi's. One has to wonder what would happen in a couple of scenario's that people just aren't willing to put much stock in currently as all capital gets sucked into the same sector, leaving big pockets of the market completely discarded.

 

There is only one prevalent scenario that many currently seems to accept: AI technology will keep improving at the same rate and hardware demand for it will far outstrip supply for the near future.

 

I'm agnostic on it all but I do know semi's becoming 1/4th or 1/3th of S&P500 is likely to be exuberant and not sustainable unless we actually magically get true AGI. Good luck to all participating though. So I kinda wonder what the rational upside from here could be for momentum guys, AI bulls, trend followers, passive investors blindly following the indexes, ... because at some point we reach a sudden stop and people will likely once more be surprised that no bells get rung at the top.

 

I've been selling off most of my passive investing portfolio since a few weeks as I was up nicely for the year, albeit still lagging the market of course. I'd rather hold some cash and specific individual investments than have 20% of my net worth in semi's. I've enjoyed some upside through this exposure but I'll let others bat for that extra sector market cap doubling here!

Edited 8 hours ago by Valuebo

[73 Reds]

7 hours ago, Valuebo said:

Well, semi's are now 19.7% of the S&P500 and 0DTE's are over half of daily retail volume. Something tells me this won't last.

 

Overall the market is not that crazy expensive but we have earnings growth coming out of our ears through semi's. One has to wonder what would happen in a couple of scenario's that people just aren't willing to put much stock in currently as all capital gets sucked into the same sector, leaving big pockets of the market completely discarded.

 

There is only one prevalent scenario that many currently seems to accept: AI technology will keep improving at the same rate and hardware demand for it will far outstrip supply for the near future.

 

I'm agnostic on it all but I do know semi's becoming 1/4th or 1/3th of S&P500 is likely to be exuberant and not sustainable unless we actually magically get true AGI. Good luck to all participating though. So I kinda wonder what the rational upside from here could be for momentum guys, AI bulls, trend followers, passive investors blindly following the indexes, ... because at some point we reach a sudden stop and people will likely once more be surprised that no bells get rung at the top.

 

I've been selling off most of my passive investing portfolio since a few weeks as I was up nicely for the year, albeit still lagging the market of course. I'd rather hold some cash and specific individual investments than have 20% of my net worth in semi's. I've enjoyed some upside through this exposure but I'll let others bat for that extra sector market cap doubling here!

The question that comes to mind is, based on current and projected earnings of some of these semi stocks, why shouldn't they trade at current prices?