President-Elect Trump trades

[Gregmal]

2 minutes ago, Dinar said:

@Luke, in the US we have a tremendous shortage of doctors and construction workers for instance, I am sure there are other professions which are starved for labor.    Rather than become government employees that slow down the economy, why can't these people actually contribute to economic growth by becoming doctors, plumbers, or other professionals in short supply?

The flip side of this is regulation and unions are disasters for these industries. I know dozens of people who can do household plumbing. I know 5% of them are licensed. Why? Because youre forced to more or less do indentured servitude before getting the green light to start a plumbing company. Same with electricians. 

 

My brother spent almost a decade forced into academia in order to become a dermatologist. Its even worse there. Where are the incentives?

[Blugolds]

1 minute ago, Gregmal said:

The flip side of this is regulation and unions are disasters for these industries. I know dozens of people who can do household plumbing. I know 5% of them are licensed. Why? Because youre forced to more or less do indentured servitude before getting the green light to start a plumbing company. Same with electricians. 

 

My brother spent almost a decade forced into academia in order to become a dermatologist. Its even worse there. Where are the incentives?

 

At least electricians and dermatologist can make a case for some standard of licensure. Those dont bother me as much as the need for a license to CUT HAIR! a cosmetology license? Really? There are a ton of other jobs that you need a "license" for that are a complete joke. Some states require a license to be a florist, some to be an interior designer! There are 8 states that you need a license to be a travel agent! 

 

For the industries that require some level of training that could get someone killed I can understand the case for licensure. But for all these ridiculous job licenses I say deregulate the heck out of them and let the market decide the winners and losers. 

 

Many licenses are just a tax masquerading as a license.  

 

 

[Malmqky]

4 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

The flip side of this is regulation and unions are disasters for these industries. I know dozens of people who can do household plumbing. I know 5% of them are licensed. Why? Because youre forced to more or less do indentured servitude before getting the green light to start a plumbing company. Same with electricians. 

 

My brother spent almost a decade forced into academia in order to become a dermatologist. Its even worse there. Where are the incentives?

This. This. This.

 

I have a buddy who I believe is a genius. He got accepted into Harvard and other top schools with no connections and I’m pretty sure he is the first in his family to get accepted into ANY college. He’s also super handy. Rebuilds cars, does his own roofing, stuff like that since he was a kid.

Anyways, he decided to become an electrician and skip college and has made a damn good living.

 

But even in his TEENS I would have trusted him to wire my house.
 

Why does someone like him have to go through the BS union process when he’s better than 99% of the people who’ve been doing it for decades more than him?
 

I bet he could have started his own company the moment he turned 18 and killed it. Instead he had to work for people not as smart and not as driven and not as talented for years first.

 

Its stupid.

[Spekulatius]

We have 2.95M government per Fred. Redistributing some of those won’t solve the labor shortage.

 

Interesting enough, Federal employment peaked in 1990.

[Dinar]

11 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

We have 2.95M government per Fred. Redistributing some of those won’t solve the labor shortage.

 

Interesting enough, Federal employment peaked in 1990.

This does not include millions of local government employees and consultants.  I can tell you that NYC alone employs thousands of school crossing guards and thousands of school bus drivers via outside companies.  These jobs add zero value.

[rogermunibond]

@dinar spoken like someone who's never been in the school pick up queue.

[dealraker]

Ya'll just relax, you know as well as me that we elected Trump because he, and only he, can fix it.  Plus we all know from reading this forum that Musk is by leaps and bounds the smartest man ever on earth.  Knowing the above just implement wise capital allocation...that's crypto and Tesla...well maybe a tad of Broadcom.

 

The pres once again has the Senate and House - nothing to stop him yet again - and interest rates are going down...right?  

 

It is off to the races!   Ya'll quit fussin' and join forces in peace, then beat some sense into our value stocks.  I'd particularly like some help with my railroad stocks...you know those things lookin' to be right now on the rail to living hell?   

LOL...life is great...if you can stand it!

[Charlie]

6 hours ago, Luke said:

I like this idea too honestly.

 

Can i short bitcoin on IB?

@Luke, I don´t know. I´m at Consors. 

But when there is something to short, it is the cryptos..., with no cash flow, no earnings and no revenue.

Of course there are the promoters, which make shorting dangerous. 

Edited Monday at 08:23 PM by Charlie

[Dalal.Holdings]

It looks like Europe isn't the only place Trump is catalyzing into common sense...lol...

 

Quote

“Our country today faces a grave challenge,” Freeland wrote. “We need to take that threat extremely seriously. That means keeping our fiscal powder dry today, so we have the reserves we may need for a coming tariff war. That means eschewing costly political gimmicks, which we can ill afford and which make Canadians doubt that we recognize the gravity of the moment.”

 

Quote

The phrase “political gimmicks” is likely a reference to the government’s announcement last month that it plans to implement a two-month sales-tax holiday on certain items, such as toys and Christmas trees, and send C$250 checks to millions of Canadians. 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-16/canadian-finance-minister-freeland-resigns-from-cabinet?srnd=homepage-americas

 

Canada's government as clownish as the European ones. Good for the finance minister on choosing not to have any further part in this charade

[Blugolds]

12 minutes ago, Charlie said:

@Luke, I don´t know. I´m at Consors. 

But when there is something to short, it is the cryptos..., with no cash flow, no earnings and no revenue.

Of course there are the promoters, which make shorting dangerous. 

 

Always chuckle when I see crypto the lengths crypto bulls go to add to legitimacy. Anytime there are jokers trying to ride BRK coat tails and prove legitimacy via association that should be a red flag. Association can be a picture with someone from Omaha (we've seen that) assumption of association via name dropping (we've heard that) or comparison, automatically makes me think...

 

Here's one of the latest:

https://thecryptobasic.com/2024/12/03/wall-street-analyst-says-selling-xrp-now-is-like-selling-shares-of-berkshire-hathaway-in-early-days/

 

analyst warned investors that selling XRP now is like parting with Berkshire Hathaway shares in the company’s early days. “All you have to have is patience,” Her comments come as XRP has experienced significant volatility over the years, often caught in the crossfire of regulatory battles and fluctuating market sentiment. Jones believes that XRP’s unique use case, specifically its role in cross-border payments, positions it for even greater long-term success, much like Berkshire Hathaway’s value became apparent only after years of growth and development. 

 

XRP Like Berkshire Hathaway’s Shares

Notably, Berkshire Hathaway is one of the most successful investment firms in history, led by renowned investor Warren Buffett, the company’s chairman and CEO. While many early investors did not recognize its long-term value, those who held onto their shares have seen substantial returns.

According to market data from TradingView, Berkshire Hathaway’s Class A shares (BRK.A) boast an all-time return of 292,100% from their current position.

Essentially, the Wall Street analyst suggests that those who choose to hold onto XRP now could find themselves in a similar position when the asset’s true value is realized.

Notably, the audacious comparison of XRP to shares of successful companies has been a recurring theme in the crypto scene. Other market commentators have also compared XRP to shares of the FANG companies. Some have used this analogy to argue for an 8,000% price surge for XRP into the future.

 

 

https://decrypt.co/207783/rat-poison-cantankerous-bitcoin-critic-charlie-munger-dies-at-99

 

 

 

 

[mcliu]

40 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

It looks like Europe isn't the only place Trump is catalyzing into common sense...lol...

 

 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-16/canadian-finance-minister-freeland-resigns-from-cabinet?srnd=homepage-americas

 

Canada's government as clownish as the European ones. Good for the finance minister on choosing not to have any further part in this charade

 

Can't wait for this Trudeau nightmare to end.

[Dalal.Holdings]

30 minutes ago, mcliu said:

 

Can't wait for this Trudeau nightmare to end.

 

Liberal politicians can't help but push the "write checks to citizens" button...

 

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/money-your-pockets-governor-hochul-proposes-sending-86-million-new-yorkers-inflation-refund

 

I hope they lose.

 

Quote

When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.

 

-- Ben Franklin

 

[John Hjorth]

37 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Ya'll just relax, you know as well as me that we elected Trump because he, and only he, can fix it.  Plus we all know from reading this forum that Musk is by leaps and bounds the smartest man ever on earth.  Knowing the above just implement wise capital allocation...that's crypto and Tesla...well maybe a tad of Broadcom.

 

The pres once again has the Senate and House - nothing to stop him yet again - and interest rates are going down...right?  

 

It is off to the races!   Ya'll quit fussin' and join forces in peace, then beat some sense into our value stocks.  I'd particularly like some help with my railroad stocks...you know those things lookin' to be right now on the rail to living hell?   

LOL...life is great...if you can stand it!

 

Charlie [ @dealraker ],

 

Some  years ago, we had here on CoBF a very active board member for a period, with a board handle much similar to the religious quotation  : Luke 5:32 [I'm not going to quote or buzz the board handle here, btw.]

 

Luke 5:32 :

 

Quote

"I have not come to call the righteous, but sinners to repentance.”

 

- Reading a post here on CofB&F [<- please note, this is the one and only right way to abbriviate 'The Corner'!] not so long ago about what to do with a 40 per cent position [, when Micro-'something' is 'likely' hitting 'something' in a few months],  I really can't imagine, nor comprehend.]

 

Then there is this 'thing' about relative performance to some - more or less arbitrary - index, and all that.

 

The most important thing to me is actually not to hurt - in a material way - financially - the Lady of the House, by lack of caution, in my actions.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Each to our own approach.

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

This does not include millions of local government employees and consultants.  I can tell you that NYC alone employs thousands of school crossing guards and thousands of school bus drivers via outside companies.  These jobs add zero value.

NYC is not federal. That’s state or city.

[Gregmal]

All that matters is what they did to people and the country during Covid to seize power and the excuse was that Trump wasn’t the answer. What they provided us with the last 4 years is unequivocally unacceptable. So what they have to say now just doesn’t matter. Who cares?

[Blake Hampton]

My Trump trade is preparing for inflation and longer term, possibly a fiscal crisis.

 

I personally like oil because it's one of the few parts of the market that doesn't feel valued to the sky, and energy has performed well historically during inflationary periods. I'm also sitting on a large amount of cash (50%) as I think that there's A LOT of risk that people are currently ignoring.

 

If you assume that future imports will approximately equal what they were in 2023, and you also assume that we will see across-the-board tariffs of 10% (which some might deem conservative), that would be a little more than $300 billion that U.S. households will have to absorb in price increases. People who think that these costs will be borne by China or that tariffs will somehow instantly spur U.S. manufacturing are simply not living in reality. While I agree that trade is something that needs to be desperately fixed, and has needed to be fixed for some time, this is not how you do it. This has to be inflationary.

 

I will also add that Jerome Powell is not scared of Trump. If Trump creates inflation, Powell will respond with raising rates.

 

Trump is notoriously flip-floppy on both people and policy. In my mind however, tariffs and tax cuts are almost a certainty with him. I'm assuming that tariffs will be the danger short-term and tax cuts longer-term, as our federal government is in a very poor position financially. This will only be exacerbated by less revenue.

 

Reaganomics, the idea that cutting taxes somehow pays for itself, does not work. Why have we not learned this yet?

Edited Monday at 11:02 PM by Blake Hampton

[Dinar]

3 hours ago, rogermunibond said:

@dinar spoken like someone who's never been in the school pick up queue.

I spent five years in NYC public schools, and I have two kids in NYC public schools currently.   I speak like a taxpayer, you speak like someone who does not give a damn about government efficiency or effective use of tax dollars.  

[cubsfan]

17 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Reaganomics, the idea that cutting taxes somehow pays for itself, does not work. Why have we not learned that yet?

 

Wow - Reagan that pulled us out of the Jimmy Carter malaise, and gave us 8 great years in the 1980's with 3.5%/yr GDP - doesn't work? 

[cubsfan]

2 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Wow - Reagan that pulled us out of the Jimmy Carter malaise, and gave us 8 great years in the 1980's with 3.5%/yr GDP - doesn't work? 

 

Which best describes Reagan's beliefs about economic growth?

 

removing rules and laws that govern businesses. Which best describes Reagan's beliefs about economic growth? He believed that making government smaller would lead to growth.

[Blake Hampton]

I have made made my opinion known and have given my argument.

 

I guess we will have to agree to disagree.

[cubsfan]

Like Jimmy Carter, President Biden has done a tremendous amount of damage to the United States economy. Deregulation will go a long way to fuel economic growth. There is no good reason for 220 Federal agencies cranking out regulations, except for job protection.  In addition, tariffs, are a fantastic tool for international negotiations. Historically, the US has had the lowest tariffs around, while we put up with other countries protecting and building their industries. Now we do the same for the benefit of the country..

 

I do agree, that tax cuts will be the trickiest part of the balancing act - given the gigantic deficit left to Trump as Biden's parting gift. 

 

Now you have a President that is planning for growth, as opposed to one that threw in the towel to fund his ridiculous social programs that inflicted so much damage.

[Red Lion]

1 hour ago, Blake Hampton said:

My Trump trade is preparing for inflation and longer term, possibly a fiscal crisis.

 

Isn't this the entirety of modern United States financial history summed up right here? We're in a state of perpetual inflation except when we are having a fiscal crisis. 

[John Hjorth]

@cubsfan,

 

Looking forward to revisit this topic after 4 years from now, however, I might by then already then have left CofB&F, dead, calling it all a day.

[james22]

I'd pull investments from Ireland.

 

The point here is this: Ask the Americans or the Indians or even most Europeans to choose between Ireland and Israel, and they’ll choose Israel every time.

 

We have, for most of our existence, pretended that we can say or do what we like on the international stage because everybody loves us. The truth is that we’ve been able to be liked because we are irrelevant.

 

Nobody has ever had to choose between Ireland and a powerful ally.

 

In our utter folly, we have now decided to put this country in a position internationally where people who are our natural friends have to take a side: Ireland, or Israel.

 

The Israelis know who’s going to come out on top there. That’s why they’ve closed the embassy.

 

We are governed by utter fools.

 

https://gript.ie/israel-ireland-embassy-closed/

 

 

Edited yesterday at 12:03 AM by james22

[cubsfan]

3 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

@cubsfan,

 

Looking forward to revisit this topic after 4 years from now, however, I might by then already then have left CofB&F, dead, calling it all a day.

 

@John Hjorth Now that is funny