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Iran - Israel - Gaza Conflict


Luke

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It turns out that Hezbollah and Iran are so beloved in Lebanon that their own spies have turned on them and allowed Israel to wipe out Hezbollah's entire leadership structure in a span of 10 days.

 

Meanwhile, Iran beats the drum continuing to threaten Israel, while wondering who is next on the hit list.

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31 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

It turns out that Hezbollah and Iran are so beloved in Lebanon that their own spies have turned on them and allowed Israel to wipe out Hezbollah's entire leadership structure in a span of 10 days.

 

Meanwhile, Iran beats the drum continuing to threaten Israel, while wondering who is next on the hit list.

 

The whole thing now has turned out to be absolutely terrible and ugly - non-hooman, I [and Lulu, the cat] would say.

 

Even OSINTdefender on X has lost his composure, just posting : 'Holy shit....' :

 

 

Even learned something about the definition of a 'shit-ton' today :

Image

Edited by John Hjorth
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30 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Meanwhile, Iran beats the drum continuing to threaten Israel, while wondering who is next on the hit list.

One of my rules in politics and investing is to “watch what they do, not what they say”.

 

What does Iran “beating drums” and doing absolutely nothing to support Hezbollah tell us?

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  • 2 weeks later...

Well Iran did some fireworks, so now the question is how Israel will respond and respond they will.

 

What I find more surprising is that a couple of days into the ground invasion, there seems to be very news about what’s going on in Lebanon. Sadly, I think this conflict will not have a quick end, we are talking a conflict that is probably not going to end even in 2025.

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4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Well Iran did some fireworks, so now the question is how Israel will respond and respond they will.

 

What I find more surprising is that a couple of days into the ground invasion, there seems to be very news about what’s going on in Lebanon. Sadly, I think this conflict will not have a quick end, we are talking a conflict that is probably not going to end even in 2025.

OpSec is very good on both Israeli and Hezb side. You can find some telegram videos beyond what IDF releases but videos are few. There are some X accounts that are trying to keep track of losses through obits and the latest count was something like 20 IDF and 400 Hezb fighters. I'm very curious because Hezb is missing a lot of very important middle management commanders and has disrupted comms network.

 

I think you are right; it'll probably go well into 2025, but I am encouraged by the moves West is slowly pushing the likes of Joseph Aoun for the Lebanese presidency and the potential expulsion of Hezb. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

No dog in this, but quite a few things are coming together here.

 

Gulf airspace restrictions. The only way to/from Iran from Israel is either via Syria/Turkey, or the Red Sea/Arabian Sea/Gulf of Oman/Persian Gulf. Might be OK for the stealth birds, but not possible without protected multiple air-air refuelling top-ups along the way; however, a lot more practical were there protected refuels/rearms on either the African coast or in Pakistan/India. Needs a lot of help.

 

30 days until the US weapons flow drys up, 6-13 days left to act - if it has to be done at least 1-2 weeks before the US election. Supposedly target types have been agreed; have to think the types of assistance and ordinances have been agreed as well, along with contingency 'aftermath'. Takes time.

 

This is what the professionals do, they do it very well, and obviously we hope it goes as planned. Just keep in mind that one day, in the none to distant future, we're very likely all going to wake up to a major market volatility spike.  

 

SD

Edited by SharperDingaan
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Big week for Israel. Not so much for Iran. Hamas decapitated fully, Israel now waiting for next leader to raise his head to be eliminated. The Hamas hit list is long, and the they are all Dead Men Walking.

 

USA hits Houtis hard. Clear message to Iran: we can take out your fortified underground sites if you push this war. Bashar Assad, take note as well.

 

Is Hezbollah now on their own??  I don't know, but new leadership must be a little nervous.

Going to be a long ugly invasion that will cost many Israeli lives as well.

 

Too bad it's come to this. It all could have been avoided if Biden/Harris had not funded Iran & all it's proxies. US foreign policy disaster.

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B2 bombings, leaked docs, anticipatory repositioning of assets (all sides), etc, etc. Whatever the eventual outcome, we clearly aren't in Kansas anymore.

 

The reality is that 'spheres of influence' are temporary, and expensive to maintain. Proxies are a cheap means by which to maintain presence, they are either 'created' or are the strong men in the region, and per maintenance purposes ... have to be periodically terminated.

 

Let the proxy's get out of hand and you get the Taliban/Isis, Iraq, Iran, etc. Supplying weapons to both sides works for a while, but there's always another armourer ... and more influence for more weapons. Maintenance that could have been done quietly, now becomes regional wars; while there are preemptive remedies, they rapidly get harder to execute, and errors a lot less forgiving.

 

Ideally everything goes as planned.

 

SD

 

   

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13 hours ago, mcliu said:

How do we know Iran isn’t a paper tiger? The media’s been claiming for years about hezbollahs capabilities and yet Israel effectively eliminated the command structure in two weeks..

 

Yup, we may find out. Not only has command structure been gutted, but estimated missile arsenal in Lebanon is 60-70% destroyed. Iran has to be shocked how their "investment" has been so rapidly diminished.

 

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Pretty brilliant move today: Israel taking out Hezbollah banks and financial institutions on Sunday. Might make it tough for Hezbollah to make payroll. Supposely, via captured intelligence, Israel has mapped out Hezbollah's entire financial support network.  

 

Hell, if you get a run on the bank - financial collapse is possible.

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On 10/22/2024 at 2:59 AM, james22 said:

 

LOL

 

 


Israel continues to lie to justify their genocide on innocent individuals. I still cannot believe how delusional ppl are to believe the filth Israel continues to share. 

 

 

Edited by ourkid8
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6 minutes ago, ourkid8 said:


Israel continues to lie to justify their genocide on innocent individuals. I still cannot believe how delusional ppl are to believe the filth Israel continues to share. 

 

 

Really?  Sanjeev, comments like this warrant a moderator.

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1 minute ago, 73 Reds said:

Really?  Sanjeev, comments like this warrant a moderator.

 
BBC is not a reliable source proving Israel was lying? I really don’t understand why that comment warrants a moderator. 

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2 hours ago, ourkid8 said:


Israel continues to lie to justify their genocide on innocent individuals. I still cannot believe how delusional ppl are to believe the filth Israel continues to share. 

 

 

While I don't know the truth, this is shamefully inept reporting. Of course the stashes of cash and gold, if they exist, are not in a cupboard on floor -2 of the hospital, they would be 30 meters below that in a tunnel system that is accessed from hidden entrances outside and maybe quite far away from the hospital.

 

One a side note, I met a BBC employee last year during my travels. The woke capture and the amount of wasteful spending he told me about - like Twitter before Musk. So yes, in my book the BBC is a biased news source at best, not reliable. Your mileage may vary.

 

Edited by backtothebeach
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4 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Let him vent. The truth will be out soon enough.

Such comments deserve no place in this, or any other forum.  Beyond that there is no further need to dignify it with a reply.

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We already have a polarized media and social media. 
 

Can we please keep the extreme points views from both sides out of this thread. It is astonishing to me that we are not allowed to have a thread about US election and interviews (they get deleted), but we have one here …
 

If you have a set-in-stone view that one side is totally correct is whatever they say, something is wrong with you. Specially if you never been outside North America and the Western world. This is not a football game that you need “flock” to one side, and waive a banner and memorize and repeat “talking points” 

 

please use X/Twitter 

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24 minutes ago, ourkid8 said:

 BBC is not a reliable source proving Israel was lying? I really don’t understand why that comment warrants a moderator. 


@ourkid8, I will admit i do not fully understand the situation in the middle east all that well. i try and understand the big picture. This helps me process the specific events that are happening. Can you explain to me where Hamas and Hezbollah fit in to what is happening? 
 

I think it is true that Hamas has as part of its charter the destruction of Israel (and killing Israeli’s will get you to into heaven etc). I think Hezbollah is largely the same. Hamas is the government body of Gaza and Hezbollah is firmly in control of the government in Lebanon (at least it was). To come into power, both Hamas and Hezbollah killed off all those who stood in their way. My understanding is neither Hamas nor Hezbollah accept Israel's right to exist. As a result, they have no desire to peacefully co-exist with Israel. 
 

When i hear people talk about Palestinians and they do not state their position on Hamas and Hezbollah i am not able to process or understand what they are saying. It is not possible to separate the people from government in power. 

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1 hour ago, Luke said:

I enjoy having these topics on this board because i think they are relevant to investors and the investing game in general.

 

I now believe so as well.

 

If you view politics as oppressed vs oppressor rather than good vs evil, I'll assume you've also elevated ESG metrics over profit and weigh your recommendations accordingly.

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5 hours ago, ourkid8 said:


Israel continues to lie to justify their genocide on innocent individuals. I still cannot believe how delusional ppl are to believe the filth Israel continues to share. 

 

 

Hamas supporter ^

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20 minutes ago, mcliu said:

Hamas supporter ^


@mcliu

 

With respect, if I were to make a list of all the dumb comments coming from the pro-Bibi camp here (some who cannot even point Israel on a map, yet seem to have an opinion) it will be a very long book. 
 

how about not name calling or branding …. Just because you disagree 

 

you know as well as I do that @ourkid8 is not a Hamas supporter. Disagreeing with Israel is not being pro-Hamas.
 

Just as agreeing with Bibi doesn’t mean that you a racist genocidal fuck that wants to exterminate the Palestinians. 

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