Starship Test Launch Thursday

[ValueArb]

SpaceX is planning to launch another Starship prototype thursday morning. If anyone doesn't know what it is, its largest rocket ever built and designed to be first fully reusable rocket ever. Or at least first economically fully reusable rocket, the Shuttle had to spend 4 months in between flights fixing tiles and doing total engine rebuilds, and could only reuse parts from its SRBs. 

 

If Starship achieves its design goals, it will be able to turn around and fly again in days, if not hours, and its launch cost will be a fraction of the Falcon 9, a much smaller rocket that is already the least expensive in history.

 

https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-third-launch-how-to-watch-online

[rkbabang]

Yes, I watched the first 2 tries and I plan to be watching this one live too tomorrow morning.

 

[Morgan]

I am pumped for this!! 

[Dalal.Holdings]

The launch was great. The media spun and even FAA trying to spin it as some sort of failure. Bias against Elon and inability to understand iterative process that SpaceX takes is the culprit.

 

Meanwhile, SpaceX's competitors (Boeing/Lockheed/ULA) are nowhere to be seen in this race...(though the size of their government contracts are orders of magnitude greater)

[Sweet]

2 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

The launch was great. The media spun and even FAA trying to spin it as some sort of failure. Bias against Elon and inability to understand iterative process that SpaceX takes is the culprit.

 

Meanwhile, SpaceX's competitors (Boeing/Lockheed/ULA) are nowhere to be seen in this race...(though the size of their government contracts are orders of magnitude greater)

How can they spin a successful launch as a failure?

 

Whatever anyone wants to say about Elon one thing is clear - he gets things done.

[rkbabang]

2 hours ago, Sweet said:

How can they spin a successful launch as a failure?

 

Whatever anyone wants to say about Elon one thing is clear - he gets things done.

 

They can’t stand that someone with money and power doesn’t agree with their leftist BS.  I saw a bumper sticker on a Tesla the other day that said “I bought this before we knew Elon was nuts.”   That said to me much more about the owner of the car than it did about Musk.

 

What Musk has accomplished is extraordinary. Getting to space isn’t easy. The proof of this is that to this day there isn’t another company or government anywhere on Earth launching, landing, and regularly reusing rockets.  And there is nothing comparable to Starship. Nuts, indeed.

[boilermaker75]

13 hours ago, rkbabang said:

 

They can’t stand that someone with money and power doesn’t agree with their leftist BS.  I saw a bumper sticker on a Tesla the other day that said “I bought this before we knew Elon was nuts.”   That said to me much more about the owner of the car than it did about Musk.

 

What Musk has accomplished is extraordinary. Getting to space isn’t easy. The proof of this is that to this day there isn’t another company or government anywhere on Earth launching, landing, and regularly reusing rockets.  And there is nothing comparable to Starship. Nuts, indeed.

 

We need more nuts like Elon.

[Spekulatius]

25 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

An example of why they truly loathe him just from today. With him owning X there is an information distribution outlet which isn’t under their complete control, which drives them insane.  Whether or not you agree with Trump or if what he’s saying makes any sense, the media is lying to make him look like he’s inciting violence, which obviously isn’t the case. And Musk’s X is the only social media platform where people are free to point out the lies. However much you hate the mainstream corporate media, it isn’t nearly enough.

 

 

Actually, on the  CNBC interview I watched, they were rightfully discussing the blood bath in the context of the car industry. I guess the headline creators do the clickbait thing with this, but once you actually read the article, it becomes clear what it’s about.

 

This is the thing with many media articles, the headlines are designed as clickbait and often don’t represent what is actually the content.

[thowed]

I'm not going to waste much time on an idiot like Trump, but a quick scan of the talk suggested that, as he often does, it's deliberately ambiguous so people can read what they want into it.

 

And on Elon - I think you can respect him for the things he has achieved, especially with Space X, while thinking he says some incredibly dumb things and holds some ignorant views.

 

What I can't stand is people who have no room for nuance.  'X is right', 'Y is wrong'.  And nothing inbetween.  None of you would analyse a company like that, so I don't get why you can simplify your views on politicians to such a degree.  Most people get some things right & some things wrong, and they should be called out on the stuff they get wrong, regardless of whether they're 'your team'.

[ValueArb]

The only thing I can say about Elon and Twitter is that he's tweeted a lot of dumb things at times, and I like the community notes feature he added which I think offers the appropriate balance between allowing mostly unrestricted speech on his private property while providing reasoned pushback to misinformation. 

 

That said SpaceX made a pretty big step forward this week with Starship. The major accomplishments that I can see are

 

1) They solved propellent clog problem on SuperHeavy well enough that it was able to do the flip maneuver and hypersonically fly back to his preplanned landing spot.

 

2) They solved the fuel leak that led to the fire on Starship when it dumped fuel in the previous test, and Starship was able to achieve its entire planned sub-orbital trajectory until re-entry.

 

3) They tested the "pez dispensor" door they'll need to use Starship to launch Starlink satellites. 

 

4) Essentially this Starship/SuperHeavy test prototype accomplished everything any other finished commercial launch system does. By putting its last stage into orbit, its basically ready to be used as a fully expendable launch system.

 

5) Tested fuel transfer between tanks (an important requirement for in orbit refueling key to the HLS and other deep space missions), but as yet I haven't seen any confirmation it was successful yet. 

On a more minor accomplishment: the added Starlink terminals sent a lot of incredible footage back of the beginning of re-entry, something we've never been able to see before given how the plasma blanket cuts off radio communications during hypersonic re-entry.

 

Where it fell short of a "perfect" mission

1) Couldn't relight enough engines to soft-land SuperHeavy in the ocean. Likely means that an actual landing attempt is at least two more tests away.

 

2) Had issues controlling attitude in orbit leading to an uncontrolled roll. This is probably why it broke up in re-entry because it wasn't able to keep the heat-shield side facing into the hypersonic torch stream. I'm still a bit surprised by the break up since the stainless steel still should have been fairly robust at handling the heat of re-entry. Makes me wonder if the break-up was caused by the flight termination system triggering because it regarded the roll as out of flight path requirements. I'm also wondering if the roll was caused by the fuel transfer test changing the center of gravity, and if so why the thrusters weren't able to control it, so they might need upgrading.

 

3) Pez dispenser didn't seem to work correctly. Scott Manley noted that the Starship seemed to be air-tight and holding significant atmosphere, which was unplanned and opening the Pez door seemed to release a bunch of gas. If so it might be as simple as drilling some holes in the upper part of Starship's skin.

 

4) Again we don't know if the fuel transfer test worked yet, if it didn't that needs to be addressed.

 

 So most of the things that still aren't working perfectly are only necessary for re-use. Based on payload.coms construction cost estimates, a fully expended Starship/SuperHeavy stack has a construction cost of about $100M including engines so a launch with fuel/pad/launch management barely costs more than that, say $110M, but should be able to put 200 tons into low earth orbit. That's more than double the payload of the SLS at a per launch cost of 1/20th to 1/40th as much. I expect to see SpaceX to launch Starlink satellites on Starship this year as a more detailed test of its capabilities.

 

Once they can land SuperHeavy and Starship, the hardware cost per launch drops from $100M to something like $1M to $5M depending upon how many flights each can be amortized over. Combined with refurbishment/maintenance costs between flights it would probably end up near $10M/flight, which is like a science fiction cost for a 150 ton payload to orbit. And we might get there as soon as the end of the year based on their goal to test prototypes every 2 months this year.

[rohitc99]

3 hours ago, ValueArb said:

The only thing I can say about Elon and Twitter is that he's tweeted a lot of dumb things at times, and I like the community notes feature he added which I think offers the appropriate balance between allowing mostly unrestricted speech on his private property while providing reasoned pushback to misinformation. 

 

That said SpaceX made a pretty big step forward this week with Starship. The major accomplishments that I can see are

 

1) They solved propellent clog problem on SuperHeavy well enough that it was able to do the flip maneuver and hypersonically fly back to his preplanned landing spot.

 

2) They solved the fuel leak that led to the fire on Starship when it dumped fuel in the previous test, and Starship was able to achieve its entire planned sub-orbital trajectory until re-entry.

 

3) They tested the "pez dispensor" door they'll need to use Starship to launch Starlink satellites. 

 

4) Essentially this Starship/SuperHeavy test prototype accomplished everything any other finished commercial launch system does. By putting its last stage into orbit, its basically ready to be used as a fully expendable launch system.

 

5) Tested fuel transfer between tanks (an important requirement for in orbit refueling key to the HLS and other deep space missions), but as yet I haven't seen any confirmation it was successful yet. 

On a more minor accomplishment: the added Starlink terminals sent a lot of incredible footage back of the beginning of re-entry, something we've never been able to see before given how the plasma blanket cuts off radio communications during hypersonic re-entry.

 

Where it fell short of a "perfect" mission

1) Couldn't relight enough engines to soft-land SuperHeavy in the ocean. Likely means that an actual landing attempt is at least two more tests away.

 

2) Had issues controlling attitude in orbit leading to an uncontrolled roll. This is probably why it broke up in re-entry because it wasn't able to keep the heat-shield side facing into the hypersonic torch stream. I'm still a bit surprised by the break up since the stainless steel still should have been fairly robust at handling the heat of re-entry. Makes me wonder if the break-up was caused by the flight termination system triggering because it regarded the roll as out of flight path requirements. I'm also wondering if the roll was caused by the fuel transfer test changing the center of gravity, and if so why the thrusters weren't able to control it, so they might need upgrading.

 

3) Pez dispenser didn't seem to work correctly. Scott Manley noted that the Starship seemed to be air-tight and holding significant atmosphere, which was unplanned and opening the Pez door seemed to release a bunch of gas. If so it might be as simple as drilling some holes in the upper part of Starship's skin.

 

4) Again we don't know if the fuel transfer test worked yet, if it didn't that needs to be addressed.

 

 So most of the things that still aren't working perfectly are only necessary for re-use. Based on payload.coms construction cost estimates, a fully expended Starship/SuperHeavy stack has a construction cost of about $100M including engines so a launch with fuel/pad/launch management barely costs more than that, say $110M, but should be able to put 200 tons into low earth orbit. That's more than double the payload of the SLS at a per launch cost of 1/20th to 1/40th as much. I expect to see SpaceX to launch Starlink satellites on Starship this year as a more detailed test of its capabilities.

 

Once they can land SuperHeavy and Starship, the hardware cost per launch drops from $100M to something like $1M to $5M depending upon how many flights each can be amortized over. Combined with refurbishment/maintenance costs between flights it would probably end up near $10M/flight, which is like a science fiction cost for a 150 ton payload to orbit. And we might get there as soon as the end of the year based on their goal to test prototypes every 2 months this year.

thanks for sharing all the technical details !

[Dalal.Holdings]

16 hours ago, thowed said:

And on Elon - I think you can respect him for the things he has achieved, especially with Space X, while thinking he says some incredibly dumb things and holds some ignorant views.

 

What I can't stand is people who have no room for nuance.  'X is right', 'Y is wrong'.  And nothing inbetween.  None of you would analyse a company like that, so I don't get why you can simplify your views on politicians to such a degree.  Most people get some things right & some things wrong, and they should be called out on the stuff they get wrong, regardless of whether they're 'your team'.

 

The difference is that Elon is not a politician. His opinions on EVs, rocketry, and free speech (Tesla, SpaceX, X) are pretty robust. His opinions outside those fields may not be, but they are not relevant because he does not operate in those areas. Just like a brilliant neurosurgeon may have some weird views outside of neurosurgery.

 

Politicians should be under much closer scrutiny because they devise policy in areas that encompass vast swaths of society, far outside each's individual expertise.

[rkbabang]

Some Starship porn.  This guy has some good photos of all 3 launches.

 

https://www.johnkrausphotos.com/Galleries/Launches

 

 

[rkbabang]

On 3/17/2024 at 12:21 PM, Spekulatius said:

Actually, on the  CNBC interview I watched, they were rightfully discussing the blood bath in the context of the car industry. I guess the headline creators do the clickbait thing with this, but once you actually read the article, it becomes clear what it’s about.

 

This is the thing with many media articles, the headlines are designed as clickbait and often don’t represent what is actually the content.

 

Hillary engaging in clickbaiting too maybe?  Trolling for likes?  Or trying to spread lies?   I don't know.

 

 

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, rkbabang said:

 

Hillary engaging in clickbaiting too maybe?  Trolling for likes?  Or trying to spread lies?   I don't know.

 

 

 

Can't stand Hillary, but even the biggest Trump supporters must know he's a real twat and moron, who says the dumbest things to fire up the more baser instincts of his acolytes.  

 

The really sad part is that both parties truly...truly...believe that Biden and Trump are their best chances and choices!  How effed up has the U.S. gotten when it comes to their political leaders? 

 

Now please go back to talking about the Star Ship launch, instead of politics!  Cheers!

[Sweet]

8 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Can't stand Hillary, but even the biggest Trump supporters must know he's a real twat and moron, who says the dumbest things to fire up the more baser instincts of his acolytes.  

 

The really sad part is that both parties truly...truly...believe that Biden and Trump are their best chances and choices!  How effed up has the U.S. gotten when it comes to their political leaders? 

 

Now please go back to talking about the Star Ship launch, instead of politics!  Cheers!

If the media and left leaning politicians honestly reported on Trump I’m certain he would have much lower support.

 

Instead it’s been lies and misinformation for eight straight years, from the Russia collusion narrative in 2016, the endless other shit in between, and now another blatant and transparent lie with the ‘bloodbath’ reporting.

I think many on the right could agree with you about Trump’s character, but a sober analysis of his character is almost impossible when it’s just constant lies and misinformation about him spread by the powerful.  It obscures any discussion about Trump itself because everyone can see these transparent machinations from various powerful groups (media, politicians, courts) to prevent him from running.

 

Imagine if none of this occurred and we didn’t have these talking points about the media (and others) because he was fairly and honestly appraised.  There would be nothing to rage against and a sober assessment of Trump would be possible.  I’m certain many would dislike what they see.

 

Edited March 19 by Sweet

[Longnose]

Dont hijack the starship thread. Take politics back to the russia thread.. or elsewhere...

 

This is from the launch 10 months ago when they blew up the first rocket but some of the things they highlight in this blew my mind around the impacts of making these starships feasible and eventually getting them to be reusable.

 

Not an elon fan but i love watching the progress hes making for mankind. 

 

 

 

[Parsad]

12 hours ago, Sweet said:

If the media and left leaning politicians honestly reported on Trump I’m certain he would have much lower support.

 

Instead it’s been lies and misinformation for eight straight years, from the Russia collusion narrative in 2016, the endless other shit in between, and now another blatant and transparent lie with the ‘bloodbath’ reporting.

I think many on the right could agree with you about Trump’s character, but a sober analysis of his character is almost impossible when it’s just constant lies and misinformation about him spread by the powerful.  It obscures any discussion about Trump itself because everyone can see these transparent machinations from various powerful groups (media, politicians, courts) to prevent him from running.

 

Imagine if none of this occurred and we didn’t have these talking points about the media (and others) because he was fairly and honestly appraised.  There would be nothing to rage against and a sober assessment of Trump would be possible.  I’m certain many would dislike what they see.

 

This is the garbage that feeds the Trump machine!  Is that really what American’s want or do they support him as a big Eff-you to mainstreet politics?  There is nothing sober about Trump.  He’s a crook and fraud like most politicians.    And perhaps the biggest narcissist the world has ever seen.  Good people don’t run for politics anymore…just the people who play the game…on both sides!  Cheers!

[Sweet]

7 minutes ago, Parsad said:

This is the garbage that feeds the Trump machine!  Is that really what American’s want or do they support him as a big Eff-you to mainstreet politics?  There is nothing sober about Trump.  He’s a crook and fraud like most politicians.    And perhaps the biggest narcissist the world has ever seen.  Good people don’t run for politics anymore…just the people who play the game…on both sides!  Cheers!

I think that’s certainly part of it, a big F off to career politicians, media and other powerful groups and people. 

[rkbabang]

2 hours ago, Parsad said:

Good people don’t run for politics anymore…

They never did. History is written by the winner to make themselves look good.

[Gregmal]

2 hours ago, Sweet said:

I think that’s certainly part of it, a big F off to career politicians, media and other powerful groups and people. 

At the end of the day, because of the corrupt nature of it all, you have to ignore the candidate, and simply look at the policies.

 

Do you believe in high taxes or lower taxes?

 

Do you believe in law and order, or zero accountability chaos?

 

Do you believe in responsible immigration or a free for all?

 

We were obviously fucked, when even smart people like Mitt Romney, and heck LOL even a big number of folks we could see even on this site, just total emotionally crippled dumbasses, just couldn’t put their personal disdain for the guy aside, and openly supported a guy who literally ran on “open borders”…and will now listen to the same guy claim he had nothing to do with the current border situation despite reversing what? 40 different border policies within his first month in office? The same people cried about “cozying up to dictators” and voted for a guy who’s a career warmonger and guess what? Now we ve had a new war pop up pretty much each year he’s been in office.
 

Like with religion, sometimes the enemy is just brainwashed even though otherwise they might mean well. 

[Gregmal]

I mean watch how many people vote Biden even though the dude isn’t even capable of holding a conversation, asks his keepers if he’s even allowed to answer questions from the press who white glove him to begin with, and quite clearly is guilty the same shit they whined about Trump and his family doing? My goodness. And then when you ask them why? You’ll get some bullshit cop out like “they’re both bad but he’s better than the other guy” like some handicap 5 year old!

[Parsad]

49 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

At the end of the day, because of the corrupt nature of it all, you have to ignore the candidate, and simply look at the policies.

 

Do you believe in high taxes or lower taxes?

 

Do you believe in law and order, or zero accountability chaos?

 

Do you believe in responsible immigration or a free for all?

 

We were obviously fucked, when even smart people like Mitt Romney, and heck LOL even a big number of folks we could see even on this site, just total emotionally crippled dumbasses, just couldn’t put their personal disdain for the guy aside, and openly supported a guy who literally ran on “open borders”…and will now listen to the same guy claim he had nothing to do with the current border situation despite reversing what? 40 different border policies within his first month in office? The same people cried about “cozying up to dictators” and voted for a guy who’s a career warmonger and guess what? Now we ve had a new war pop up pretty much each year he’s been in office.
 

Like with religion, sometimes the enemy is just brainwashed even though otherwise they might mean well. 

 

First of all, 3 items isn't all that's on the agenda:

• What about the U.S. station in the world...relationship to allies...retaining and growing global trade?
• You can't let Russia or China run unchallenged around the world...nor can you cozy up to dictators like Putin and Kim Jong Un.
• What about the growing divide between the wealthy and the poor?
• How about the budget deficit and national debt?
• What about national infrastructure including roads/highways, the electrical grid, hospitals, schools, etc?
• How about the strength of the military?
• There are probably hundreds of other important and necessary issues.

While some of those issues may not be as important to part of the population, it may mean everything to others.  

 

The country needs a President that will work for everyone...not just half of the population...and unfortunately, for the last 20 years, they've all been partisan Presidents!  Which has just escalated the rhetoric and stupidity between each side.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

43 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I mean watch how many people vote Biden even though the dude isn’t even capable of holding a conversation, asks his keepers if he’s even allowed to answer questions from the press who white glove him to begin with, and quite clearly is guilty the same shit they whined about Trump and his family doing? My goodness. And then when you ask them why? You’ll get some bullshit cop out like “they’re both bad but he’s better than the other guy” like some handicap 5 year old!

 

Greg, it's equally mind-boggling how many vote for Trump...as you said...the dude isn't even capable of holding a conversation, ask his keepers as well.  Problem is that Trump's keepers can't get him to stop self-immolating!  

 

Frankly, both parties are insane in pushing these guys to the front!  The American people and both parties are doing exactly what the U.S. presently deserves...retards for President!  You just better hope that as Buffett says, the company (known as the U.S.) has enough competitive advantages to survive poor managers running it!  Cheers!

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Greg, it's equally mind-boggling how many vote for Trump...as you said...the dude isn't even capable of holding a conversation, ask his keepers as well.  Problem is that Trump's keepers can't get him to stop self-immolating!  

 

Frankly, both parties are insane in pushing these guys to the front!  The American people and both parties are doing exactly what the U.S. presently deserves...retards for President!  You just better hope that as Buffett says, the company (known as the U.S.) has enough competitive advantages to survive poor managers running it!  Cheers!

I’m just generally over it and have given up. The last 4 years(starting with COVID, not Biden) I’ve just come to terms with the fact that the system is unbeatable. It’s not changing. You can only change what you have control over yourself. 
 

Even my great little Northern NJ town that I moved to over a decade ago now…started as probably 60/40 conservative, but the thing is, no one talked about politics. No one really cared or lived with it influencing anything they did. Then we get COVID, and all these shoebox dwelling assholes I guess apparently realized they value some space and not having the government tell them where they’re allowed to go for a walk or shop, and then come out here thinking they’re hardasses with their dumb hate has no home here bumper stickers on their $90k Suburbans and guess what? Now all the red hats come out, we have antivax rallies outside the town square, every board of Ed election is now about tampon dispensers in the boys rooms and what’s available in the libraries….and it’s the same shitshow it is everywhere else I detest. Fuck all these people. 
 

So like a grumpy old man I’m packing my shit and moving to where the only topics are what’s your t-time and how’s the investments looking? Just done with it all.