Muddy Waters is short

[MMM20]

On 3/27/2024 at 6:24 PM, Tommm50 said:

A week straight of declines on no news...

Zoom out… and BTW the stock was up this month. 

 

Edited March 29 by MMM20

[Gregmal]

Yea, stocks are supposed to be volatile. Its a feature, not a bug. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

36 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yea, stocks are supposed to be volatile. Its a feature, not a bug. 

Canadian PMs still treat Fairfax like a hedge. They buy it when they are bearish banks and sell it when they are bullish banks. Bank stocks are doing pretty well lately. I think that’s part of it. 
 

There is also probably concern about owning FFH if they announce the IDBI deal or another acquisition that might cause a drawdown even though BVPS will presumably grow faster if they do. No PM wants to own FFH when the market decides Prem made another mistake. Even though we won’t know that for years the next time it happens. 

[giulio]

still at it.

Looks like mw is on a crusade now against Watsa.

 

 

 

[gfp]

I love it!  If you know something please email it to me!

[LC]

He puts the block in blockheaded. 

[Luke]

29 minutes ago, giulio said:

still at it.

Looks like mw is on a crusade now against Watsa.

 

 

 

HAHAHA, him now using these memes even to make a case, is incredible. 

[gfp]

There is this crazy school of thought out there that values companies based on their earning power but Carson knows that.

[giulio]

Will he give up when Digit goes public? The COBF should make a bet with him wrt Digit value/valuation.

[Hoodlum]

5 minutes ago, giulio said:

Will he give up when Digit goes public? The COBF should make a bet with him wrt Digit value/valuation.

 

This is just a rehash of their February report, so I guess they couldn't find anything else.  Digit represented $1.1b of their suggest $4.5b book adjustment, so yes an IPO at a good value would effectively squash their thesis and kill any credibility that people may still have in them.

 

https://www.muddywatersresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Fairfax-Financial_FFH_MW_20240208.pdf
 

Quote

Muddy Waters is short Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (FFH:CN) because we find that Fairfax has consistently manipulated asset values and income by engaging in often value destructive transactions to produce accounting gains. We believe a conservative adjustment to book value should be ~-$4.5 billion or ~-18% lower than reported. We see Fairfax as far more akin to GE than to Berkshire Hathaway.

 

Edited April 8 by Hoodlum

[Santayana]

1 hour ago, gfp said:

I love it!  If you know something please email it to me!

That is just wild!  We should all start emailing him crazy conspiracy theories about what Prem is doing. I just heard that they're going to announce that they are short BTC at the annual meeting.

 

Edited April 8 by Santayana
Saved to soon.

[Gregmal]

Move along…he’s a scumbag who uses the media to manipulate and move his positions. Nothing more. 

[Haryana]

His X video told more about him than Fairfax with these books in background:

 

1. Wealth, War & Wisdom

 

2. Power

 

3. World Without Mind

 

4. The Most Dangerous Trade

 

[Parsad]

3 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Move along…he’s a scumbag who uses the media to manipulate and move his positions. Nothing more. 

 

+1!  Yup, I'm now completely tired of schtick from jackasses like Carson Block.  His trade is losing at the moment and that's why the desperation.  He's no different than any investor...there is no nobility in what he does, even though other shorts like to pretend there is. 

 

He's just another trader...simple!  And often, he gets his facts wrong like others.

 

Cheers!

[Crip1]

Yeah, clearly an element of Skip Bayless for you sports fans out there or Jim Cramer at play in that accuracy is of secondary or tertiary importance compared to showing bravado and being bombastic/memorable. Saying something stupid is OK as long as people remember who said it. I mean, seriously, fake Canadian accents, cartoons and TicTock video clips? Only compelling enough to drive out the weakest hands with volume no higher than normal.

 

On the other hand, part of me wishes it was more successful. Their initial report allowed me to buy and sell in a period of less than a week which reduced my net cost per share by $18.50…I’d not mind doing that again.

 

-Crip.

[Xerxes]

He is throwing Mud few days before the AGM. Wondering if he will show up in person like a man. 
 

If he is right, or strongly believes that he is in the right, he ought to show up in person in his battle armour. 

 

[Gregmal]

Ive said it a million times but I dont know how anyone has ANY respect for short sellers, especially the ones that publicly pull this shit just trying to cause short term moves in stock prices. What kind of scum seeks to profit off misfortune of others? Especially so gloatingly and publicly? Like you realize tons of people invest in and/or work at these companies, have stock options, retirement plans, etc? The way they excuse this is always by trying to paint the NEOs in some nefarious way, or act like the company is evil...and hey, sometimes thats true, but often it is just fabricated, and either way...why not just let things play out without having to try to be the reason for damaging a company in a negative way?

[Malmqky]

30 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Ive said it a million times but I dont know how anyone has ANY respect for short sellers, especially the ones that publicly pull this shit just trying to cause short term moves in stock prices. What kind of scum seeks to profit off misfortune of others? Especially so gloatingly and publicly? Like you realize tons of people invest in and/or work at these companies, have stock options, retirement plans, etc? The way they excuse this is always by trying to paint the NEOs in some nefarious way, or act like the company is evil...and hey, sometimes thats true, but often it is just fabricated, and either way...why not just let things play out without having to try to be the reason for damaging a company in a negative way?

Couldn’t agree more. Well said. Could never pray on someone/somethings downfall like this.

 

It’s telling the short report doesn’t actually go into real analysis on the “14 positions”. Just gives basically a one liner stating something like “this is on the balance sheet as x, it’s actually y”.

 

If MW was legit, they’d break things down way more and invite scrutiny to their methodology/analysis.

 

Instead, MW is just marketing ran by pseudo-intellectuals who want to make money by being “smart” instead of just taking swings at far pitches.

 

Also, why would you short a company that’s “overvalued by 18%”. Like 18%? Lol. Huge upside there!

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, Malmqky said:

Couldn’t agree more. Well said. Could never pray on someone/somethings downfall like this.

 

It’s telling the short report doesn’t actually go into real analysis on the “14 positions”. Just gives basically a one liner stating something like “this is on the balance sheet as x, it’s actually y”.

 

If MW was legit, they’d break things down way more and invite scrutiny to their methodology/analysis.

 

Instead, MW is just marketing ran by pseudo-intellectuals who want to make money by being “smart” instead of just taking swings at far pitches.

 

Also, why would you short a company that’s “overvalued by 18%”. Like 18%? Lol. Huge upside there!

Legit short sellers keep their positions quiet and generally abhor the idea of their positions leaking as if youre actually investing it makes many of the short specific nuances much more challenging. Its only the smash and grabbers who only look to keep the position on in a very short term way who take the scream from the mountain tops hoping to scare people and move the market approach. 

[ValueMaven]

MuddyWater's posted a video on Twitter basically asking for the public's help in finding dirt on FFH.  

I guess he didnt do enough homework himself.

[Alekbaylee]

Timing is probably not a coincidence. MW’s afraid the stock price pops further up after the AGM, widening their losses. Sounds like a desperate mayday call.

[Luke]

How can he be SO stubborn, even if there would be overstating of book value, the fundamentals are so great that it's unshortable...pfff

[Thrifty3000]

FWIW - I don't think anyone has already posted this here, and I hadn't seen it before I spent time digging on MW's site today - but on the day of the last FFH conference call Muddy Waters published a list on their website of specific questions and accounting discrepancies for Fairfax (this was separate from the original report).

 

https://www.muddywatersresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Fairfax_MWQuestionsForQ423Call.pdf

 

One example:

 

"There is a $101.7 million discrepancy between what the acquirer reports paying for RiverStone, pro rata for Fairfax’s ownership, and the total consideration Fairfax reports receiving. The pro rata discrepancy grows to $335.4 million when looking at the cash consideration that CVC reported paying."

 

I'm not qualified/motivated to assess the legitimacy of several of the claims. But, if anything raises an actual red flag, it might be worth asking Prem/Jen for clarification at the meeting.

Edited April 9 by Thrifty3000

[Cigarbutt]

3 hours ago, Thrifty3000 said:

FWIW - I don't think anyone has already posted this here, and I hadn't seen it before I spent time digging on MW's site today - but on the day of the last FFH conference call Muddy Waters published a list on their website of specific questions and accounting discrepancies for Fairfax (this was separate from the original report).

https://www.muddywatersresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Fairfax_MWQuestionsForQ423Call.pdf

One example:

"There is a $101.7 million discrepancy between what the acquirer reports paying for RiverStone, pro rata for Fairfax’s ownership, and the total consideration Fairfax reports receiving. The pro rata discrepancy grows to $335.4 million when looking at the cash consideration that CVC reported paying."

I'm not qualified/motivated to assess the legitimacy of several of the claims. But, if anything raises an actual red flag, it might be worth asking Prem/Jen for clarification at the meeting.

To help with 'clarification', the following was posted earlier in the Fairfax 2024 thread.

Fairfax 2024 - Page 28 - Fairfax Financial - Corner of Berkshire and Fairfax - The Value Investor's Haven (thecobf.com)

Hope this helps.

 

[Parsad]

13 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Legit short sellers keep their positions quiet and generally abhor the idea of their positions leaking as if youre actually investing it makes many of the short specific nuances much more challenging. Its only the smash and grabbers who only look to keep the position on in a very short term way who take the scream from the mountain tops hoping to scare people and move the market approach. 

+1!  Agree...I have no problem with legit short sellers.  They do increase market efficiency.

 

Like Greg, its the smash and grab short sellers that I despise like the pump and dump long promoters!  Cheers!