Cryptocurrencies

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 minute ago, djokovic1 said:

All this is useless unless you have an independent view of what an asset is worth without needing to look at the price.

 

 

Your independent view is useless if no one else agrees - which could be observed by the price moving closer to, or further from, your independent view. For about ~15 years now it's been moving away from your independent view...

 

[djokovic1]

I should clarify to be fair to you. What I said is true if you are in the investing game. If you are playing the trading game, then my logic doesn't apply and wish you good luck and fun!

[djokovic1]

1 minute ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Your independent view is useless if no one else agrees - which could be observed by the price moving closer to, or further from, your independent view. For about ~15 years now it's been moving away from your independent view...

The beauty is I don't need to play games that don't make sense to me. There are lot of fish in the sea. This one makes no sense to me.

[Milu]

25 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

There is nothing/nowhere I spend money on that will take it.  Who wants extra steps for purposes of "conversion"?  And most importantly, I don't take it.  But at last check, Visa is widely accepted, as is cash.  

I’m not sure how many places you spend money would accept a gold coin or bar either.  The word crypto ’currency’ has always been confused the matter, should have been crypto asset. Store your wealth in gold, bitcoin, stocks, spend your wealth in dollars, euro, yen. 

[73 Reds]

Just now, Milu said:

I’m not sure how many places you spend money would accept a gold coin or bar either.  The word crypto ’currency’ has always been confused the matter, should have been crypto asset. Store your wealth in gold, bitcoin, stocks, spend your wealth in dollars, euro, yen. 

Let's start with the US government.  Then onto any commercial enterprise.  And finally Joe Sixpack.  Don't see too many takers.  Again, I agree that somewhere in the future digital currency will replace fiat for many reasons.  But I wouldn't hold BTC overnight. The other real assets you mention have long histories/uses and no one holds stocks to spend, though we do give them away on occasion.  Unless you are a currency trader, I just don't see why anyone would hold a currency for investment purposes - they all depreciate, just some more quickly than others. 

[Dalal.Holdings]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

What else other than TA can you do if you want to trade bitcoin?  It’s not like there is an intrinsic value floor here.

No intrinsic value, but TA still doesn’t work just like with every other assets class. The best thing you can do is probably track how many cryptards have margin or similar “uncle points” (like Saylor) and then trade around those uncle points. You know when certain levels are breached, it’s going to lead to margin calls and forced selling.

 

The other key issue with Crypto, as I alluded, was the tech bros (the core crypto investor) have moved on to deploying their capital to capex heavy activities for the first time in tech: AI buildout. The capital is being sucked out of crypto, it’s the new fascination. Crypto never really worked out into a socially beneficial product

[brobro777]

I told you guys 2 months ago! My dental hygienist being so crazy about crypto was a bad sign baby, bad sign! 

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

Best part of Crypto is the entertainment. Amazing that CNBC keeps having this guy on…but not that surprising since they also employ Cramer

 

 

 

 

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

This has been answered dozens of times. Plenty of places accept it. Plenty of payment processors are willing to convert it at the buyer or sellers preference. 

 

So where can you spend it? Basically anywhere else thats accepts PayPal, Square, lightning network, or BTC...which is a lot of places. More places today accept it than 5-years ago and more places will accept it 5-years from now. 

 

Can you imagine poo-pooing Visa 5-years in because "nobody accepts it"?

 

Real question is, why spend it when I have fiat to spend? 

 

Every single payment portal, including Visa, is backed by fiat currency.  Bitcoin is backed by the lint in your pockets!  Lint may actually have more value and use.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, gfp said:

 

You're in Florida right?  Get on down to the Steak n Shake 

 

Yes, because my Steakburger cost me $6 three weeks ago, and now is down to $4.  Is Sardar going to keep accepting BTC if the Steakburger to Bitcoin ratio falls to $1 Steakburgers?  In that case, where can I find a car dealer that accepts BTC, so I can drive away in a Cadillac that may cost me $10K if BTC keeps falling?   

 

The fact that BTC has zero stability compared to...ah, pretty much everything on the planet...should answer the question on how it would ever replace fiat currency!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, djokovic1 said:

The beauty is I don't need to play games that don't make sense to me. There are lot of fish in the sea. This one makes no sense to me.

 

100% correct!  You fish where you want to and when you want to. 

 

The "missing out" feeling is one rule for the ages on "what not to do when investing"!  Cheers!

[TwoCitiesCapital]

I mean, it's displaying a similar volatility to gold over the last 6-months, just not in the same direction. And gold has had pretty massive booms/busts through out its history. 

 

Is always weird to me that people think store of value = stable price when every single store of value has had volatile periods of huge prices swings in either direction. Gold, art, real estate, government bonds, Bitcoin, etc. Big swings in value have happened to them all? But one stands above all over the last 10 years. 

[Charlie]

I liked these two posts from shrewd´m.com about Bitcoin:

 

Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman had some interesting comments today: 

" First, today’s price action shouldn’t change your view about Bitcoin’s usefulness or lack thereof. If, like me, you consider the whole thing a delusion — BTC isn’t a medium of exchange, nor is it a reliable store of value — then you already knew that and the fact that we seem to be having a Wile E. Coyote moment isn’t information about the fundamentals. (There are no fundamentals.) If you have some story about why this aging financial innovation is actually useful — do tell...

Second, the fact that BTC is now lower than it was before the 2024 election is significant in two ways. It shows the limits of political favor — all the boasts about making American a crypto superpower, all the deregulatory talk and pardons for cryptocriminals, in the end couldn’t defy gravity...

And in general the whole “Say what you like about Trump, but markets are up” mindset must be under severe strain."

 

 

 

Richard Farr, chief market strategist and partner at Pivotus Partners, has issued a stark prediction for Bitcoin (BTC-USD), setting a price target of zero for the cryptocurrency.

“Our BTC price target is 0.0. That’s not just for shock factor. It’s where the math takes us,” the strategist said, noting that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has failed to function as a dollar hedge and instead operates as “a speculative instrument correlated to the Nasdaq.”

According to Farr, the cryptocurrency faces insurmountable obstacles in gaining institutional adoption or serving as a legitimate medium of exchange.

“No serious central bank will ever own something where Michael Saylor controls the float,” he said on X, referring to the Strategy (MSTR) executive who has accumulated massive bitcoin holdings.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4547997-bitcoin-s-pr...

 

 

 

[wachtwoord]

11 hours ago, Milu said:

I’m not sure how many places you spend money would accept a gold coin or bar either.  The word crypto ’currency’ has always been confused the matter, should have been crypto asset. Store your wealth in gold, bitcoin, stocks, spend your wealth in dollars, euro, yen. 

 

Ding ding ding ding, we have a winner.

 

Also lol at all the Schadenfreude posters in the topic . Indeed what always happens in this part of the cycle so it must still be alive. Human nature is hilariously ironic sometimes

[Spekulatius]

On 1/29/2026 at 5:24 PM, gfp said:

People are using stablecoins to do some of the things they used to use Bitcoin to do.  Makes sense if you are primarily interested in the utility for a specific purpose and don't desire price volatility.

 

I will post this chart again, because the price behavior is following the previous analog to a T so far.  The price of Bitcoin is selling off because it looks identical to the same bear flag in 2022.

 

Stable coins are indeed of much more practical value than crypto currencies like BTC for cross border payments. If you are located in the Philippines or Argentina, where the currency transfer fees are high and inflation is an issue (in Argentina), they could save a a lot of money and the holder could just keep the money in their wallet as USD stand pints until needed for consumption and then convert, Digital currencies depending on how they are designed and regulated could do the similar things.

 

Less friction would create more competition for currencies as holders could easily swap one for another until needed for consumption. 

Edited February 6 by Spekulatius

[Buckeye]

IDK, 3 days of Schadenfreude, from a group that’s had to hear “have fun staying poor” for 10+ years seems warranted. 
 

I was told many times on this thread that Bitcoin’s value was derived from the fact that it was backed by the most powerful computer in the entire world!!! It’s so valuable, I was told, you almost can’t even put a value on it

 

Me thinks that these “computers” that OpenAi, Google, Meta and Xai are building may be slightly more powerful, but what do I know.

[tede02]

For people that really want to understand the history of money and banking...and an extremely reasonsed case for bitcoin, I'd suggest reading Lyn Alden's book, Broken Money. I just finished it. Exceptional read. One thing I realized reading this book is if you've lived your entire life in the US (like me), you take the financial system and the fact that the dollar is the global reserve currency for granted (it's all you know). Likewise, if you're in the top 20% of income earning households, you usually don't have trouble accessing the financial system or obtaining credit. But for a huge percentage of the world, access to credit or a currency that isn't constantly being inflated away rapidly isn't there. This was eye opening to me. Again, if you're in the developed world with a good job, you don't even think about this stuff. Additionally, much of the world lives under authoritarian regimes where privacy and the ability to move one's own money around isn't a given. I've followed the bitcoin story for at least 10-years in financial media passively. I finally understand at least some of the substantive arguments for a decentralized, non-sovereign money. 

[Gregmal]

I always love watching people who have been wrong or missed things dearly get gratification out of "owning" folks because theres price action normally associated with speculative things, in said speculative things...that for the same reasons theyve been wrong, makes them feel validated and sadly, feeds their derangement.

 

Between this and Tesla, the 20%+ drawdowns are grade A entertainment. "Oh here's so and so blowhard talking head taking a victory lap. Proven correct after claiming Tesla/BTC was worthless in 2016....now its up only 5000% from his original bearish call, but hey it's off the highs, he must be on the something!". Truth is, I need to find me some investment where I do nothing, also classified as jack shit, and then just watch and get some sort of validation, maybe even some secret monetary benefit(which would explain the emotion they have invested in these) from seeing a "drawdown". It's the ultimate gravy train. No downside being wrong on 100%, 1,000%, 10,000% moves against you, but big reward cuz "its down 40% from the ATHs!"....

[73 Reds]

25 minutes ago, tede02 said:

For people that really want to understand the history of money and banking...and an extremely reasonsed case for bitcoin, I'd suggest reading Lyn Alden's book, Broken Money. I just finished it. Exceptional read. One thing I realized reading this book is if you've lived your entire life in the US (like me), you take the financial system and the fact that the dollar is the global reserve currency for granted (it's all you know). Likewise, if you're in the top 20% of income earning households, you usually don't have trouble accessing the financial system or obtaining credit. But for a huge percentage of the world, access to credit or a currency that isn't constantly being inflated away rapidly isn't there. This was eye opening to me. Again, if you're in the developed world with a good job, you don't even think about this stuff. Additionally, much of the world lives under authoritarian regimes where privacy and the ability to move one's own money around isn't a given. I've followed the bitcoin story for at least 10-years in financial media passively. I finally understand at least some of the substantive arguments for a decentralized, non-sovereign money. 

So are you suggesting that the bull case for BTC is desperation?  No one in the US takes the reserve currency status of the Dollar or our financial system for granted when your dollar buys a small fraction of what it purchased a few decades ago - some of us are old enough to remember.    But as many here have stated, BTC is backed by nothing and is exactly worth its backing - nothing.    And for that part of the World that lives under oppressed regimes?  Currencies are the least of their problems but there is always WU.

Edited February 6 by 73 Reds
word

[KJP]

15 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Let's start with the US government.  Then onto any commercial enterprise.  And finally Joe Sixpack.  Don't see too many takers.  Again, I agree that somewhere in the future digital currency will replace fiat for many reasons.  But I wouldn't hold BTC overnight. The other real assets you mention have long histories/uses and no one holds stocks to spend, though we do give them away on occasion.  Unless you are a currency trader, I just don't see why anyone would hold a currency for investment purposes - they all depreciate, just some more quickly than others. 

 

Respectfully, I don't think this is responsive to @Milu's point, which was that no place where you actually shop accepts gold either.  So, is gold worthless?  By bringing in the concept of "currency" I believe you are creating a straw man -- my understanding is that BTC bulls see it as a type of long term store of value, like gold, rather than a everyday medium of exchange like the USD.  

 

I've never owned BTC or any other crypto (or gold for that matter).  But I do not see how you or other others making similar comments have differentiated BTC from gold, other than gold's long history of use, which I agree is a significant distinction.

[changegonnacome]

13 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Amazing that CNBC keeps having this guy on

 

Agree.....CNBC gives these guys a platform....it was rather innocently stupid until he became Chairman of a DAT (Bitmine i think) and started selling shares at x5 m/nav of the underlying ETH via ATMs........shameless from him but CNBC continued to let him on to sell the story/shares......David Faber, to his credit, was the only host to tackle him on how deeply skewed the economics are for insiders/existing holders versus new holders in these structures. 

[KJP]

14 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

No intrinsic value, but TA still doesn’t work just like with every other assets class. 

 

 

@gfp is giving us a real-time test of this proposition.  He has been right so far on this down leg.  Why has his analysis to date not been sufficient to change your prior (at least slightly) on this question?  If he continues to make correct calls on BTC via TA, will you change your mind?  

 

[Milu]

29 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I always love watching people who have been wrong or missed things dearly get gratification out of "owning" folks because theres price action normally associated with speculative things, in said speculative things...that for the same reasons theyve been wrong, makes them feel validated and sadly, feeds their derangement.

 

Between this and Tesla, the 20%+ drawdowns are grade A entertainment. "Oh here's so and so blowhard talking head taking a victory lap. Proven correct after claiming Tesla/BTC was worthless in 2016....now its up only 5000% from his original bearish call, but hey it's off the highs, he must be on the something!". Truth is, I need to find me some investment where I do nothing, also classified as jack shit, and then just watch and get some sort of validation, maybe even some secret monetary benefit(which would explain the emotion they have invested in these) from seeing a "drawdown". It's the ultimate gravy train. No downside being wrong on 100%, 1,000%, 10,000% moves against you, but big reward cuz "its down 40% from the ATHs!"....

Yea it’s an interesting trait alright. If somebody calls something ridiculously overvalued, bubble, worthless at $5k, $10k whatever, and that asset currently sits at $65k (after a 50% drawdown) you haven’t really been proved right. 

[Gregmal]

7 minutes ago, Milu said:

Yea it’s an interesting trait alright. If somebody calls something ridiculously overvalued, bubble, worthless at $5k, $10k whatever, and that asset currently sits at $65k (after a 50% drawdown) you haven’t really been proved right. 

And then theres also the fact that they take volatility, something naturally inherent in pretty much anything, and point to its existence, as proof that their obvious biases are well founded and rational LOL......

Edited February 6 by Gregmal

[73 Reds]

4 minutes ago, KJP said:

 

Respectfully, I don't think this is responsive to @Milu's point, which was that no place where you actually shop accepts gold either.  So, is gold worthless?  By bringing in the concept of "currency" I believe you are creating a straw man -- my understanding is that BTC bulls see it as a type of long term store of value, like gold, rather than a everyday medium of exchange like the USD.  

 

I've never owned BTC or any other crypto (or gold for that matter).  But I do not see how you or other others making similar comments have differentiated BTC from gold, other than gold's long history of use, which I agree is a significant distinction.

Isn't BTC a "cryptocurrency"?  If its not a currency why is it called a currency?  Like anything that has a tangible use, gold has value.  It also has biblical and historical significance.  And for its entire existence there have been plenty of parties around the World who gladly accept gold in payment for goods and services.  But that's not really the issue here.  I don't begrudge anyone who has made a lot of money with BTC; that is what makes markets.  But at the same time I have little doubt about its ultimate outcome.  For my $ there is no need to invest in mind games when you can easily make money on assets with a legitimate IV.