Luke Posted February 8 Posted February 8 58 minutes ago, wachtwoord said: Luke, what you wrote was nonsensical and inconsistent to meaningfully respond to. Not worth my effort to comb through. You don't have to rewrite and I will simply not engage. All good. Its nonsensical and inconsistent but you refuse to respond to it - thats the spirit of COBF! Sad that you are not interested in meaningful dialogue but you still have the chance to do so!
Luke Posted February 8 Posted February 8 12 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Most currencies are decent store of value if you put them into treasuries or sovereign bonds, but some are not, due to poltical disfunction. The primary function of a currency is not to be a longer term store of value , but to be a functional medium of exchanges for goods services and to keep the economy going in good time and bad. In bad economic times the ability of fiat based currencies to create new money out of thin at is a features not a bug. There was a resounding why we went of a gold standard. With a gold standard, the central bank can’t do much if there is a crisis. We had many banking crisis in the 19th century before a central bank was institutionalized and we were running on a strict gold standard (which really was abandoned in the 1930’s mostly and then competed in 1971. Of we were to run our economy on bitcoin , we would go back to the time of frequent crashes where the banking system or parts of it would collapse because some constituents would end up short on liquidity and there would be no way to provide it, because the number of bitcoins is fixed (just like gold is). So be careful what you wish for, but I don’t think a Bitcoin based economy will work, because the financial system won’t work well with bitcoin being the medium of exchange. Yeah fully agree @Spekulatius and @wachtwoord does not want to provide an alternative solution yet - i hope he does!
wachtwoord Posted February 8 Posted February 8 16 minutes ago, Luke said: If you read about economies before state run central banks there was way less freedom for anyone and for the state because the banks controlled everything (for example Jakob Fuggers financing the election of Karl V). There was more freedom then. You simply have no clue what personal freedom constitutes and underestimate election manipulation in modern times. Your bias is showing. 16 minutes ago, Luke said: You say you dont consider Bitcoin as a currency but then bash fiat, use the terms parasitic class, - what is it you want? No oppression by the nation state so no involvement by them and voluntary choice otherwise. It's really not that difficult, why are you trying to not understand just do you can hold on to your comfy beliefs?
brobro777 Posted February 8 Posted February 8 On 2/6/2026 at 2:23 PM, TwoCitiesCapital said: Lol. I have a travel nurse friend that got into in 2023 - but that was a good time to enter and he made money. So somehow we have to pick and choose which non-financial professionals we're gonna use as signals. Oh yea I think there was some dude on this forums whose wife picked PLTR and others that outperformed. I think this guy then posted his wife's another buy was ASTS and I made some money free riding off that idea! The thing that got me about my hygienist was how she kept going on about how much she believed, BELIEVED in crypto. Listening to that I thought, uh oh...
Luke Posted February 8 Posted February 8 (edited) 2 hours ago, wachtwoord said: There was more freedom then. You simply have no clue what personal freedom constitutes and underestimate election manipulation in modern times. Your bias is showing. Election manipulation and oppression existed long time before fiat and central banks...they were enforced by private creditors or feudal lords who held all the capital...Fuggers, Rothschild...private citizens could buy a continents foreign policy (arguably you can still buy elections today looking at campaigns like Obamas or Trumps). There were zero democratic institutions to appeal to if you were stopped lending by a bank. 19th century farmers faced debt inflation with rigid money supply and this will happen with crypto as a replacement for fiat. Additionally the systematic instability - the poverty and the depressions were way worse than with the current fiat money where people made it out of the crash way better than if fiat would not have existed...so i have to hardly disagree with your assesment. 2 hours ago, wachtwoord said: No oppression by the nation state so no involvement by them and voluntary choice otherwise. It's really not that difficult, why are you trying to not understand just do you can hold on to your comfy beliefs? So i ask you the same question again: What happens if there is 25% unemployment due to "cleansing". Do you think people will accept 10 years of poverty for the sake of "sound money". If peoples children go hungry because you say so because the math says so they will not buy more bitcoin but burn down cities, attack people who have more bitcoin and eventually burn down the system. What is your answer to the lack of monetary interventions in your system? Edited February 8 by Luke
Luke Posted February 8 Posted February 8 @wachtwoord If you define freedom as the absolute right of the strongest asset holder wins at all costs then you are delusional in thinking this kind of system leads to a stable and peaceful society for the average citizen. It will be a shift from state opression to private capital opression that is accountable to NOBODY and there are no institutions to access it. So its basically a feudal system where early adopters already hold the capital - exactly the same as with the origins of states in feudal societies. You will also destroy upward mobility because young people who want to start a business or buy a home must borrow bitcoin which - because of structural deflation - will become harder and harder to be paid back in the future creating a debt peasant class where workers can never outrun the increasing value of their debt! No more social contracts where democracy can demand change, safety nets, stimulus, tax reforms etc. Just the code and the private owner is the absolute law...you are creating bitcoin fuggers. Imagine a child born in 2050. 99% of bitcoin is already hoaarded by the people who got "in" between 2009 and 2014. These new lords dont have to produce anything, they simply sit on their digital gold while its value increases due to labor and productivity of everyone else. The value of debt will increase over time because the bitcoin demand rises with population and productivity growth so how does a young entrepreneur ever move up? If i start my business tomorrow with 1BTC i am signing a contract to be a permanent slave to this asset because its becoming more expensive and harder to acquire every year...upward mobility would require credit and the ability to have savings but in a bitcoin system the winners were already picked between 2009 and 2014...so a child born in 2050 will be a slave working for a currency they will never own in any significant amount because of structurally different headwinds than with the USD. Now imagine a child born in 2026 with the USD fiat money. With 2% moderate inflation i borrow 100k to start a business. The debt shrinks every year and i am paying back the bank with cheaper dollars then i borrowed. Inflation also pushes up the nominal value of assets slowly over time like my financed home or factory while mortgage remains fixed. Thats how the middle class can build wealth slowly over time. Banks can print the credit to fund people easily which creates way more economic activity (you would argue it would create zombie companies but look at how much wealth and growth was created since fiat was introduced...that would never have been possible with bitcoin). If our bitcoin lords would not lend at all and decide to keep 15million btc in cold storage to be king then there is no credit available for the next generation. You create an aristocracy. BECAUSE cash loses value the wealthy are forced to invest it into the real productive economy to stay ahead of inflation...with bitcoin the smart move would be to do nothing which will lead to stagnation, liquidity traps, huge unemployment, social chaos and the end of the world as we know it.
SharperDingaan Posted February 8 Posted February 8 (edited) BTC (Digital)/Gold (Analog) is where you store your value; the fiat currency you sell it for is what you spend. The fiat received could be USD, Euro, Yuan, or Ruble ... it really doesn't matter; the fiat devalues (via inflation/money printing), you just get more toilet paper for your BTC/Gold. Exchange rates change every day; when there is peace in the world ... USD 71,000/BTC, when the USD loses its reserve currency status .... USD 171,000/BTC. Simply because the once almighty USD has gone to sh1te Sure ... you're rich in the US! ... but it is only in US pesos .... that few outside of the US actually want. The price of BTC is purely a supply/demand thing ... measured in fiat currency. Demand changing every day as circumstance and utility changes, supply moving as mining and hoarding changes add/subtract from the pile. Technical Analysis for pricing signals in fiat currency 'X', supply/demand forecasting for the price of BTC itself. Central Bank influence is indirect at best. BTC supersedes the more direct control of Central Banking, which is why it's a threat. Level 2 solutions improve BTC utility, and fiat devaluation magnifies it; the why it's worth much more in a 3rd world county, than it is in a 1st world one ... where money printing is much less prevalent ( ... but still routine) Keynesian economics has its uses; mitigation of widespread misery (escape from depressions, war time rebuilding, debt devaluation) being the major ones ... but it comes at the cost of continuous fiat devaluation. Devalue at the same rate as your trading partners, and there is no net impact (carousel effect); devalue at a faster rate (USD), and the currency becomes progressively cheaper versus your trading partners. Today's state borrowing in fiat currency 'X' to rebuild infrastructure, repaid later in devalued fiat currency 'X'; the larger the nominal borrow, the better. So .... as people world wide have done for centuries; store your wealth in BTC/Gold and convert to fiat only as you need to. How much in BTC, how, and where? largely dependent upon your use and privacy requirements Not what many would prefer to promote. SD Edited February 8 by SharperDingaan
Luke Posted February 8 Posted February 8 1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said: BTC (Digital)/Gold (Analog) is where you store your value; the fiat currency you sell it for is what you spend. The fiat received could be USD, Euro, Yuan, or Ruble ... it really doesn't matter; the fiat devalues (via inflation/money printing), you just get more toilet paper for your BTC/Gold. Exchange rates change every day; when there is peace in the world ... USD 71,000/BTC, when the USD loses its reserve currency status .... USD 171,000/BTC. Simply because the once almighty USD has gone to sh1te Sure ... you're rich in the US! ... but it is only in US pesos .... that few outside of the US actually want. The price of BTC is purely a supply/demand thing ... measured in fiat currency. Demand changing every day as circumstance and utility changes, supply moving as mining and hoarding changes add/subtract from the pile. Technical Analysis for pricing signals in fiat currency 'X', supply/demand forecasting for the price of BTC itself. Central Bank influence is indirect at best. BTC supersedes the more direct control of Central Banking, which is why it's a threat. Level 2 solutions improve BTC utility, and fiat devaluation magnifies it; the why it's worth much more in a 3rd world county, than it is in a 1st world one ... where money printing is much less prevalent ( ... but still routine) Keynesian economics has its uses; mitigation of widespread misery (escape from depressions, war time rebuilding, debt devaluation) being the major ones ... but it comes at the cost of continuous fiat devaluation. Devalue at the same rate as your trading partners, and there is no net impact (carousel effect); devalue at a faster rate (USD), and the currency becomes progressively cheaper versus your trading partners. Today's state borrowing in fiat currency 'X' to rebuild infrastructure, repaid later in devalued fiat currency 'X; the larger the nominal borrow, the better. So .... as people world wide have done for centuries; store your wealth in BTC/Gold and convert to fiat only as you need to. How much in BTC, how, and where? largely dependent upon your use and privacy requirements Not what many would prefer to promote. SD We are on COBF - why not buy businesses instead of Gold?
73 Reds Posted February 8 Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, Luke said: We are on COBF - why not buy businesses instead of Gold? Yeah; it's news to me that people for centuries have been storing their wealth in BTC/gold. Not sure what planet that would be. All the wealthy folks I've ever heard or read about store their wealth mostly in what created their wealth.
Luke Posted February 8 Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: Yeah; it's news to me that people for centuries have been storing their wealth in BTC/gold. Not sure what planet that would be. All the wealthy folks I've ever heard or read about store their wealth mostly in what created their wealth. And we are on a board to discuss investments and businesses. We can close the board if we just hold gold or BTC xD
73 Reds Posted February 8 Posted February 8 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Luke said: And we are on a board to discuss investments and businesses. We can close the board if we just hold gold or BTC xD I suppose the same goes for a "store of wealth". This seems to be something the crypto/gold crowd hangs their hat on - for what reason I don't know or even care about. Edited February 8 by 73 Reds missed word
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 8 Posted February 8 What a cheap out of the discussion: "This is an investment forum, so we talk about investments" while ignoring the asset class that is trouncing the absolute shit out just about any company you can think of over a 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-year horizon. We're all here to make money - you do yourself a disservice to ignore the thing that has made some of the most. In other news, just transferred ~$10k of BTC for 31 cents and had it confirmed in less than ~3 minutes. And yes supposedly, TradFi is still better despite the deposit I made to my HYSA on Friday AM still not showing....
Luke Posted February 8 Posted February 8 (edited) 8 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: What a cheap out of the discussion: "This is an investment forum, so we talk about investments" while ignoring the asset class that is trouncing the absolute shit out just about any company you can think of over a 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-year horizon. We're all here to make money - you do yourself a disservice to ignore the thing that has made some of the most. In other news, just transferred ~$10k of BTC for 31 cents and had it confirmed in less than ~3 minutes. And yes supposedly, TradFi is still better despite the deposit I made to my HYSA on Friday AM still not showing.... You know what Buffett and Munger said regarding Bitcoin - you could have made the same money investing in actual producing assets. If you want you can invest in women underpants or whatever suits you but for my liking id like to stay with real assets and i think the majority on this board is more interested in businesses and not cryptocurrencies which indeed generated a great return over time which furthers the illusion of investing in something real. Edited February 8 by Luke
SharperDingaan Posted February 8 Posted February 8 (edited) 2 hours ago, 73 Reds said: Yeah; it's news to me that people for centuries have been storing their wealth in BTC/gold. Not sure what planet that would be. All the wealthy folks I've ever heard or read about store their wealth mostly in what created their wealth. All those hoards of coins/gold jewellery in clay pots buried in the ground ... that keep getting turned up by archaeologists all over the pace Buried in fields at night, before the owner had to run, hopefully to return sometime later (if they lived) to unearth it. All those Egyptian pharaohs, taking their wealth with them, and plagued by legions of tomb robbers forever more after their death ..... Businesses are great, so long as you can sell them when you wish/need to (age &/or change in circumstance). You may have so much stock in a listed company, that your stock sales may adversely move the price .... if you can move that quantity at all, and at a price that you think is fair. A private business may not be saleable at all, unless you are a temporary part of the package, and willing/able to offer vendor take back financing .... actual retirement may take you years to execute. Most often, you will be trying to self liquidate, by selling assets vs the business itself; while liquidity events can be created ... you are exchanging for fiat ... a portion of which will go into BTC/Gold to store what is not immediately required. A compromise is limited partnerships in small businesses, that are intentionally kept small. Have fun while you more than recover your capital over the years, and assume that you will get nothing in an eventual bankruptcy. All bonus if it actually gets sold to someone else. Different point of view SD Edited February 8 by SharperDingaan
Gregmal Posted February 8 Posted February 8 (edited) The whole purpose of investing is making money. Can I make money on this is the only relevant question. But yea, feel free to take lectures from the guy who’s chased his tail buying high and selling low on Cayman Island domiciled Chinese ADRs for the past half decade… Edited February 8 by Gregmal
SharperDingaan Posted February 8 Posted February 8 25 minutes ago, Luke said: If you want you can invest in women underpants or whatever suits you but for my liking id like to stay with real assets and i think the majority on this board is more interested in businesses and not cryptocurrencies which indeed generated a great return over time which furthers the illusion of investing in something real. This is the cryptocurrency thread, a specific asset class. Native Coin, Alt Coin, NFT's, BTC-Treasuries, Miners, etc. are all fair game ... specific companies have their own ticker threads in the investment forum. Most people are looking for highest investment return per unit of risk; the only restrictions being legality, investor morality, and the volatility. No illegal drugs/arms/protection/transshipment ..... though thankfully, the legal drug makers, arms makers, 'roofs', and logistic companies are OK . Obviously, not all stocks are for everybody either (tobacco, sugar, oil, crypto, etc.). Like it or not, as has been repeatedly pointed out, BTC has produced incredible returns. For some the volatility is such that it doesn't matter, 'it's not investable'; whereas for others; with the runway, risk tolerance and ability to mitigate the volatility, those returns are the attraction. We make our choices, and live the consequences ... It is just not what folks prefer to hear. SD
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 8 Posted February 8 (edited) 1 hour ago, Luke said: You know what Buffett and Munger said regarding Bitcoin - you could have made the same money investing in actual producing assets. If you want you can invest in women underpants or whatever suits you but for my liking id like to stay with real assets and i think the majority on this board is more interested in businesses and not cryptocurrencies which indeed generated a great return over time which furthers the illusion of investing in something real. I dunno where things stand now after the drop, but when it was around $100k, NVDA was the ONLY US large cap stock that had any comparable performance over a long period of time. So no, you couldn't have just made the same money in "producing assets". And I expect BTC will continue outperforming them for the foreseeable future because it is still dirt cheap for the value it provides. Buffett also famously avoided tech investments and bought a commodity textile as his platform for investments. Mistakes I won't be making. Edited February 8 by TwoCitiesCapital
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 8 Posted February 8 (edited) Is funny to me that everyone who demands cash flows is just demanding a middle man to split the profits with. God forbid you buy the gold, or the textiles, or the agriculture products to sell for a gain at a later. Buffett spits on your name. But if you buy stock in the miner, farmer, grocer, or clothing brand that does it for you - and makes you split the profits with all the executive staff to do so - somehow you're superior. Sometimes the value of something is obvious. And you don't need cash flows for it to be obvious or to be the one to generate the cash flows by selling it a later date. I don't need to buy stock in a "Bitcoin" company that sells Bitcoin for cash flows. Those cash flows are just as dependent on BTC price as buying BTC directly - the only way it works out well is if the price you paid is lower than the value you get (either for the BTC or for the company's inventory of BTC). This goes for any product/service or company who sells them. I think $1 trillion is far too low a price for the global value potential of BTC and I'm willing to cut out the middle man, buy the commodity myself, and will generate my own cash flows with its sale at a later date, and not have to split a damn penny to pay someone to do it on my behalf just so I can call it a a "cash flow" instead of a "price". Edited February 8 by TwoCitiesCapital
Luke Posted February 8 Posted February 8 (edited) 1 hour ago, Gregmal said: The whole purpose of investing is making money. Can I make money on this is the only relevant question. But yea, feel free to take lectures from the guy who’s chased his tail buying high and selling low on Cayman Island domiciled Chinese ADRs for the past half decade… Lol my portfolio is up 100% the last 3 years so feel free to insult more Is gregmal now also long Bitcoin Edited February 8 by Luke
Gregmal Posted February 8 Posted February 8 (edited) I don’t. But it’s hilarious watching like locust people come in, solely in response to price action, which to be honest isn’t even that drastic, and thinking it’s validating the same stale ass arguments they’ve been fruitlessly making for a decade. The only thing that matters when evaluating an investment is “can I make money”….not some bullshit Buffett or Pabrai said that got jotted down in some book or regurgitated on Twitter Edited February 8 by Gregmal
SharperDingaan Posted February 8 Posted February 8 (edited) 1 hour ago, Luke said: Lol my portfolio is up 100% the last 3 years so feel free to insult more Is gregmal now also long Bitcoin There are lots of ways to make a dollar, not just one way Just keep in mind that while 100% over 3 years is a very good result, there are also people on this board who might do that in a year or less, and often do it every 3 years or so. Different risk tolerances, experience, investment expertise, etc. A great many in corporate finance use a 25% IRR as the minimum threshold return for a riskier multi-year project, and a great many of these types of project across the world are recommended by CFO's to investment committees for approval every year. That 100% over 3 years is a CAGR slightly higher than a 25% IRR; while good for a retail investor, it is just the table stake in corporate finance .... The good news is that COBF is a great training ground ... and a modest 20% improvement, would reduce your double time to 2.6 yrs SD Edited February 8 by SharperDingaan
Gregmal Posted February 8 Posted February 8 (edited) lol well there’s also the fact that boasting about personal returns on the internet is so………lame. Same as how every 22 year old frat boy claims to have a 9 inch cock….til the bluff gets called. Here we have the posts and the track records the emerge from said posts, not “stated returns”. That’s how we judge people. Because some always claim to have the returns despite it not generally lining up with what they’re saying/what they’re doing. If you’ve been around long enough you know who’s confidence is warranted and who’s is just for show. And well, the Buffett quoting Bitcoin haters are on the same side of things as they were in 2022 or 2018…. Edited February 8 by Gregmal
Luke Posted February 9 Posted February 9 (edited) 10 hours ago, Gregmal said: lol well there’s also the fact that boasting about personal returns on the internet is so………lame. Same as how every 22 year old frat boy claims to have a 9 inch cock….til the bluff gets called. Here we have the posts and the track records the emerge from said posts, not “stated returns”. That’s how we judge people. Because some always claim to have the returns despite it not generally lining up with what they’re saying/what they’re doing. If you’ve been around long enough you know who’s confidence is warranted and who’s is just for show. And well, the Buffett quoting Bitcoin haters are on the same side of things as they were in 2022 or 2018…. Its okay to own bitcoin and defend Bitcoin owners but its also okay to point out the flaws in the thesis without needing a lecture from Gregmal about returns. And i would have never expected from you to defend this thread the way you do but as i already said, everyone has their own development and thats also for everybody to see on this board.... Edited February 9 by Luke
UK Posted February 9 Posted February 9 (edited) Well, for what it is worth:), I still agree with Luke on fiat system vs some hard money system (not going there anytime soon), but I have bought some IB1T just recently and will see how it goes from there:) Edited February 9 by UK
73 Reds Posted February 9 Posted February 9 18 hours ago, SharperDingaan said: All those hoards of coins/gold jewellery in clay pots buried in the ground ... that keep getting turned up by archaeologists all over the pace Buried in fields at night, before the owner had to run, hopefully to return sometime later (if they lived) to unearth it. All those Egyptian pharaohs, taking their wealth with them, and plagued by legions of tomb robbers forever more after their death ..... Businesses are great, so long as you can sell them when you wish/need to (age &/or change in circumstance). You may have so much stock in a listed company, that your stock sales may adversely move the price .... if you can move that quantity at all, and at a price that you think is fair. A private business may not be saleable at all, unless you are a temporary part of the package, and willing/able to offer vendor take back financing .... actual retirement may take you years to execute. Most often, you will be trying to self liquidate, by selling assets vs the business itself; while liquidity events can be created ... you are exchanging for fiat ... a portion of which will go into BTC/Gold to store what is not immediately required. A compromise is limited partnerships in small businesses, that are intentionally kept small. Have fun while you more than recover your capital over the years, and assume that you will get nothing in an eventual bankruptcy. All bonus if it actually gets sold to someone else. Different point of view SD Don't think I want to take my cue from a few Egyptian Pharaohs. The marketability or salability of businesses is entirely besides the point as long as your store of wealth continues generating additional wealth. By far the most logical way for that to happen is by generating products or services of value to mankind. Cryptocurrency is no different than any other kind of currency; its highest and best use is as a means of exchange. IMO BTC is the worst available present alternative for that. Its entire existence is a mere blip on the radar of history and my guess is it will be forgotten just as quickly as it surfaced.
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