Cryptocurrencies

[rkbabang]

13 minutes ago, dealraker said:

For the life of me I'll never understand the chants of "crpto (of some name) will be worth some exponential X (of course in dollars)."  If you are a crypto-ist, a believer, then why in living hell do you ever refer to "dollars" ---   the ancient analog of 99% dead people like Buffett/Munger.  You don't need dollars...right?

 

But they all operate 100% in dollars!  

 

DAMN!

 

And they use QuickBooks to run their businesses.  

 

 

 

Because most people in the US use and understand dollars, so it is very easy to use dollars to convey the idea that BTC or ETH will hold more value in the future than they do now.  If we started talking about the number of bananas,  pineapples, gallons of crude oil, or pork bellies  you will be able to buy with bitcoin in the future vs now it wouldn't make as much immediate sense to most listeners.

 

Edited December 13, 2022 by rkbabang

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, dealraker said:

For the life of me I'll never understand the chants of "crpto (of some name) will be worth some exponential X (of course in dollars)."  If you are a crypto-ist, a believer, then why in living hell do you ever refer to "dollars" ---   the ancient analog of 99% dead people like Buffett/Munger.  You don't need dollars...right?

 

But they all operate 100% in dollars!  

 

DAMN!

 

And they use QuickBooks to run their businesses.  

 

 

 

You'll see a lot of "1 BTC = 1 BTC" comments on crypto forums and gatherings. Not everyone is using it in reference to dollars.

 

But as long as dollars remain the world reserve currency and primary unit of account, yes, you'd expect most things to be calculated relative to USD. It doesn't speak to the illegitimacy of BTC anymore than it implies illegitimate values for Euro or Gold or houses or oil that are all also often priced in USD

 

Let's not forget this has been true of EVERY prior reserve currency and at some point they were all replaced with something anyways. Pricing things in dollars doesn't mean the things priced in dollars can't eventually become the new unit of account/reserve currency just because their value once referenced USD. 

 

Edited December 13, 2022 by TwoCitiesCapital

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, rkbabang said:

 

Because most people in the US use and understand dollars, so it is very easy to use dollars to convey the idea that BTC or ETH will hold more value in the future than they do now.  If we started talking about the number of bananas,  pineapples, gallons of crude oil, or pork bellies  you will be able to buy with bitcoin in the future vs now it wouldn't make as much immediate sense to most listeners.

 

 

I've seen the median house price charted in BTC on Reddit. There are definitely people who do this, but it's not widespread because BTC isn't yet the unit of account. 

[dealraker]

It is and has always been weath transfer and about one and only one thing and that is gaining "dollar" - that's the good ole fashioned Buffett/Munger "fossil" currency.   Get the right personality to cult it and off we go.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/12/cryptocurrency-ftx-collapse-dirty-bubble-media/672440/

[UK]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/crypto-exchange-binance-temporarily-halts-usdc-stablecoin-withdrawals.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-14/crypto-s-binance-seeks-to-reassure-over-reserves-says-debt-free?srnd=premium-europe

 

Edited December 14, 2022 by UK

[Spekulatius]

Odd lots has a good podcast on the controversial stable coin Theter:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/this-is-what-we-know-about-how-tether-works/id1056200096?i=1000589836780

 

Looks like something build to be a black box - little is known about what they own and where they hold assets (supposedly Taiwanese banks). It's basically a crypto bank in the British Virgin island operating from HK. You can't really make this stuff off. Whoever holds this and is surprised when part or all the money is gone (peg is broken etc) is not paying attention. Mindboggling...

[JRM]

There was a good episode on Tether on the Grant Williams podcast over a year ago.  Some people have seen this coming for a long time.

[dealraker]

Love the typical crypto "industry" investor on CNBC this morning, in this case David Rubenstein: "No-no-no...we have no investments in crypto...it is just too complicated...my family has no crypto...we just don't understand it."  

 

Interestingly....So then he says, "Crypto is going to be around and people are going to experiment with it...it probably does need regulation...you know these things take about a year for congress to get ahold of...to regulate...and until then there's always some issues with all new things like this."

 

So logic screams in my ear that this guy has something he ain't quite said yet, that he's got game here somewhere - because he's saying he and his family don't have crypto investments because of complexity, yet he's saying crypto is a viable thing that just needs some regulation such that it can skip right on down the road of whatnot.

 

And then...he finally says the obvious-to-come clarification: "We do have investments in the industries that service crypto."

 

And so it goes, the law makers, private $, hedgies...they all got crpto connections.  This game, that's the industry survival, is based on ever increasing $ coming in to support or increase the price of those already in....and of course those industries- Rubenstein's private money-  "serving" the business.

 

Let the "let's regulate" games begin and let those with the $ in the game make the "regulations" so that the $5k bunch can chant "My $5k will make me endlessly rich- that's a sure $1 mil" - by 2025...or is it 2027 or 28...or whatever...it is a certainty 'cause Cathie said so."

 

The crypto industry, in my view, should NOT be regulated.  Regulation by those who are invested will do nothing but extend what will inevitably happen.  And nobody knows the when or what will inevitably happen but by then the Rubenstein bunch will be in yet another budding industry anyway.

 

But until then the little lovers will get the living hell beat out of them all while they chant in union: "A 20 PE business that grows at a 8-15% a year is the fed's making and it will collapse from the inevitable destruction of capitalism because of this free money."   

 

It's the NEW NEW THING and Michael Lewis has yet another book on the way.

 

 

[SharperDingaan]

20 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

I've seen the median house price charted in BTC on Reddit. There are definitely people who do this, but it's not widespread because BTC isn't yet the unit of account. 

 

When we were looking at putting a fixed portion of our gains/losses into crypto, and further investing in UK RE we built six data series/graphs. Average price of our 'target' UK home vs ounces of gold, versus BTC, versus CAD; plus ounces of gold vs BTC. All dating back to the beginning of 'reliable' BTC market quotes. 

 

There are diversification possibilities, but one has to be mindful that the correlations are not stable over time, and the possibility of market discontinuity has to be stress tested - CAD/BTC, BTC/GBP, GBP/RE involves at least 4 variables that change significantly over time.

 

It also requires a change of mind set. Book of record denominated in BTC, and seeing the RE as a dwelling that could be literally anywhere in the world. The place you live in day-to-day, alongside rental properties that are now anywhere in the world - and wherever the best risk-adjusted deals are. Rental property on a Greek island, versus rental property in either the same or a nearby city. 

 

SD

Edited December 14, 2022 by SharperDingaan

[rkbabang]

29 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

CAD/BTC, BTC/GBP, GBP/RE involves at least 4 variables that change significantly over time.

 

 

Yes, comparing one thing of value to another always has multiple variables.  Even using USD is problematic because not only is BTC always changing in respect to the USD, but the USD is changing in value with respect to other goods as well, not just BTC.  Saying BTC will be worth some X amount of USD someday doesn't tell you much because the obvious question is "which USD?"  The 2007USD, the 2022 USD, or the someday USD?  Because if BTC is ever worth $1M USD it will be both because BTC is worth more than now and the USD is worth less than now.

 

Edited December 14, 2022 by rkbabang

[Xerxes]

Is that fair ? The type of prison he is heading. I am guessing that is short term until he is pulled into US

 

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/bahamian-prison-where-sam-bankman-024059598.html

 

“The rate of imprisonment in the Bahamas is one of the highest in the world, with 409 per 100,000 people detained in the country, according to a 2020 US State Department human rights report. The sheer number of Bahamian prisoners means Fox Hill is overpopulated, and conditions at the facility suffer as a result.“

[Dinar]

46 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Is that fair ? The type of prison he is heading. I am guessing that is short term until he is pulled into US

 

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/bahamian-prison-where-sam-bankman-024059598.html

 

“The rate of imprisonment in the Bahamas is one of the highest in the world, with 409 per 100,000 people detained in the country, according to a 2020 US State Department human rights report. The sheer number of Bahamian prisoners means Fox Hill is overpopulated, and conditions at the facility suffer as a result.“

Not in my opinion, but he is fighting extradition to the US if I am not mistaken.

[Dinar]

His mother by the way seems certified batshit crazy leftist with zero common sense.  If I am not mistaken, she claimed that people have no free will, and concepts of personal responsibility in crime and finance should not exist.  There goes civilization...

 

A real pity, since SBF is clearly a brilliant guy who was raised by brilliant parents with probably zero common sense.  What a waste of intellect!

[SharperDingaan]

2 hours ago, rkbabang said:

Yes, comparing one thing of value to another always has multiple variables.  

 

The kicker is that everything is relative to your book of record currency (BTC), and BTC will not be the currency you're using for day-to-day living; you will be using your nations cash/CBDC instead. Daily change in BTC is meaningless unless you need to buy/sell for local cash/CBDC.

 

Currently, wealth has to be stored in either physical or intangible assets; both of which can be seized at any time. Whereas, if BTC is to be the store of value; reliance is on the 21M cap staying in place, and criminal 'enforcement'. Both have their merits, and a prudent diversification would be high weightings in both alternatives. 

 

BTC at 100,000 USD? No big deal if USD devalues 50%, and there is even a very modest shift towards BTC as a store of value. BTC at 12,000 USD? No big deal if USD revalues 15%, and some of the walking dead bite the dust. All that really matters is how much BTC you have (as per your book of record), and inability to seize it.

 

One thing to 'know' it, but a whole different thing to implement it!

 

SD

[rkbabang]

9 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

The kicker is that everything is relative to your book of record currency (BTC), and BTC will not be the currency you're using for day-to-day living; you will be using your nations cash/CBDC instead. Daily change in BTC is meaningless unless you need to buy/sell for local cash/CBDC.

 

Currently, wealth has to be stored in either physical or intangible assets; both of which can be seized at any time. Whereas, if BTC is to be the store of value; reliance is on the 21M cap staying in place, and criminal 'enforcement'. Both have their merits, and a prudent diversification would be high weightings in both alternatives. 

 

BTC at 100,000 USD? No big deal if USD devalues 50%, and there is even a very modest shift towards BTC as a store of value. BTC at 12,000 USD? No big deal if USD revalues 15%, and some of the walking dead bite the dust. All that really matters is how much BTC you have (as per your book of record), and inability to seize it.

 

One thing to 'know' it, but a whole different thing to implement it!

 

SD

 

Well said.  

 

Many people think the USD is some standard by which everything else can be valued, but its value is in constant flux.  Pricing stocks in USD has the same problem.  When a stock increases in price over time, it could be that the stock is more valuable, but it also could be that the USD is less valuable, or more likely some combination of the two.  You see this when you own stocks priced in foreign currencies.  The value in USD goes up and down not only with the stock price, but also with the fluctuation in value between the currency it is priced in vs your local currency.  Right now most Americans use the USD as the baseline of value in their heads, but that could easily change.  I only care about how much BTC I own, not what it is happens to be worth today in USD.

 

[dealraker]

rkbabang you are quite free I'd suspect to begin pricing everything you own, particularly your stocks, in crypto at any time you want.  Rather than an endless verbal or in print delivery to others of complex variables that are certain to occur to ramp up whatever crypto you choose...that is always based on the assumption of the ever worthless crappy dollar...why not just go all in and stop referring at all to the dollar and even further just stop using it at all.

 

I price my stocks in dollars and I'm just about as disinterested in anyone else's price, particularly those making today's or tomorrows daily quotes, as anyone in the history of this planet.  That's my nature, and it always has been.

 

You could take that very same belief, and apparently you have such strong belief, over to your crypto of choice.  

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

The kicker is that everything is relative to your book of record currency (BTC), and BTC will not be the currency you're using for day-to-day living; you will be using your nations cash/CBDC instead. Daily change in BTC is meaningless unless you need to buy/sell for local cash/CBDC.

 

Currently, wealth has to be stored in either physical or intangible assets; both of which can be seized at any time. Whereas, if BTC is to be the store of value; reliance is on the 21M cap staying in place, and criminal 'enforcement'. Both have their merits, and a prudent diversification would be high weightings in both alternatives. 

 

BTC at 100,000 USD? No big deal if USD devalues 50%, and there is even a very modest shift towards BTC as a store of value. BTC at 12,000 USD? No big deal if USD revalues 15%, and some of the walking dead bite the dust. All that really matters is how much BTC you have (as per your book of record), and inability to seize it.

 

One thing to 'know' it, but a whole different thing to implement it!

 

SD

 

If the rest of the world goes in the shitter...why would BTC have any value at all?  Ask yourself that.  Frankly farmland would have far more value!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

7 minutes ago, dealraker said:

rkbabang you are quite free I'd suspect to begin pricing everything you own, particularly your stocks, in crypto at any time you want.  Rather than an endless verbal or in print delivery to others of complex variables that are certain to occur to ramp up whatever crypto you choose...that is always based on the assumption of the ever worthless crappy dollar...why not just go all in and stop referring at all to the dollar and even further just stop using it at all.

 

I price my stocks in dollars and I'm just about as disinterested in anyone else's price, particularly those making today's or tomorrows daily quotes, as anyone in the history of this planet.  That's my nature, and it always has been.

 

You could take that very same belief, and apparently you have such strong belief, over to your crypto of choice.  

 

Because they can't! 

 

99% of the world currently would not accept BTC or other crypto for any other asset unless you pay a massive premium in price using the crypto.  Then maybe you'll get some takers! 

 

I'm happy to sell a share of BRKA for $10M in BTC.  Sharper?  RK?  Cheers!

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said:

No big deal if USD devalues 50%, and there is even a very modest shift towards BTC as a store of value. BTC at 12,000 USD? No big deal if USD revalues 15%, and some of the walking dead bite the dust. All that really matters is how much BTC you have (as per your book of record), and inability to seize it.

 

 

What does that mean exactly ?

devalue by 50% ?

 

I think what you mean is the purchasing power of USD goes down by 50%. I doubt you will see major devaluation against other currencies (all safe perhaps Swiss Francs). That would in turn mean the purchasing power of most currencies going down as well

[TwoCitiesCapital]

20 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

If the rest of the world goes in the shitter...why would BTC have any value at all?  Ask yourself that.  Frankly farmland would have far more value!  Cheers!

 

Until its seized, or taxed, by your local governmental authorities. Why assume they wouldn't if the world truly has "gone in the shitter"? 

 

 

16 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Because they can't! 

 

99% of the world currently would not accept BTC or other crypto for any other asset unless you pay a massive premium in price using the crypto.  Then maybe you'll get some takers! 

 

I'm happy to sell a share of BRKA for $10M in BTC.  Sharper?  RK?  Cheers!

 

Pretty certain you're already wrong on the 99% figure with each passing year showing increasing adoption and increasing propensity of people to HODL the BTC they've acquired. 

[Longnose]

58 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Because they can't! 

 

99% of the world currently would not accept BTC or other crypto for any other asset unless you pay a massive premium in price using the crypto.  Then maybe you'll get some takers! 

 

Friend of mine who is an Attorney recently started working for a new firm that is in the crypto space. The firm only pays in USD-C or BTC you can choose which you want deposited into your wallet. The space for people who will accept your BTC is only growing. I paid for something on overstock.com in BTC once just to say i did it. Overstock will happily accept your BTC. 

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

 

If the rest of the world goes in the shitter...why would BTC have any value at all?  Ask yourself that.  Frankly farmland would have far more value!  Cheers!

If world goes to shitter I want farm land too... you can keep your BRK-A shares and your USD's 

Money is only used for exchange of promises. Personally I think BTC is better money than USD. Ill continue to HODL mine. 

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Until its seized, or taxed, by your local governmental authorities. Why assume they wouldn't if the world truly has "gone in the shitter"? 

 

 

 

Pretty certain you're already wrong on the 99% figure with each passing year showing increasing adoption and increasing propensity of people to HODL the BTC they've acquired. 

 

If it's seized, then what good would BTC be?  

 

There was once a massive market for trading stamps...at least they could be traded for something.  Current crypto is the new trading stamp...but with no set value that you can trade for.  You may get $60K a coin or you may get nothing!  

 

Cheers!

[Spekulatius]

Who says that crypto is safe from let's say a majority attack? It's just 14 years old construct and has never really been tested against a determined player with huge resources or a few of them working together. Once a player has control of the network , they can double spent coins and wreck the integrity of the blockchain.

 

If you really think that a government seizes all assets, could it be stopped from wrecking crypto that way? I don't know but I don't think it safe to assume that crypto is safe from an attack from a player like China, the US, EU or even few of them working together.

[dealraker]

1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Until its seized, or taxed, by your local governmental authorities. Why assume they wouldn't if the world truly has "gone in the shitter"? 

 

 

 

Pretty certain you're already wrong on the 99% figure with each passing year showing increasing adoption and increasing propensity of people to HODL the BTC they've acquired. 

I'd be willing to trade my $8,500 dollars for one Bitcoin if I can get access to that BTC today and be able to sell it tomorrow morning...but it would have to be very early in the morning tomorrow.  If I can not get the one BTC today, if I have to wait 5 years for access, then I'll give you $250 for it.  

 

Adoption is not relevant to that decision for me.  

 

 

[rkbabang]

9 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

If it's seized, then what good would BTC be?  

 

There was once a massive market for trading stamps...at least they could be traded for something.  Current crypto is the new trading stamp...but with no set value that you can trade for.  You may get $60K a coin or you may get nothing!  

 

Cheers!

 

 

The same could be said for the USD.  What is the intrinsic value of a piece of green paper?   You can wipe your butt with it, but Charmin does that better.    It's all just stamps if the world goes to shit.   If the world doesn't all go completely to shit, then the USD is likely to keep losing value over time, while I think BTC is likely to keep gaining value over time.