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rkbabang

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35 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

This highlights the systemic issue with crypto adoption though. People who are fans/hobbyists of specific technology often hold the view of "people just need to do more research and they will see the benefit". The majority of people will never "dig into" BTC and the behind the scenes benefits because they truly don't care. A great place to see examples of this would be on Reddit. There are subs of any topic you can think of that are full of cult followers. Go on r/water and look around. It's full of people obsessed with getting the purest water they can drink. To them it's absurd that everyone doesn't have a Hydroviv water filter in their house. "Why would people not do more research and see the benefits?!" 

 

I also think that individuals over emphasize how much average people actually care about a proper "store of value". Prior to BTC and crypto, how many people help gold? It was something like 1-5% of people owned physical gold in the US in 2017. If having a store of value was extremely important to the general populace then why wasn't that number higher? And why would anyone expect it to be higher in any meaningful manner now? There are financial accounts you can get now here you convert all of your cash to Gold held in some vault. You get a debit card and spend "gold". How many people use that? Pretty much nobody. 

 

Point being people will switch to Crypto why they are forced to by the powers at be (Central Bank crypto). Beyond that, the average person doesn't have time to think about the benefits of crypto when the reality of every day life sets in. People are too busy, too poor, and simply not interested. 

 

 

 

I agree that its all about adoption. I recognize that most people in the western world will be slow to adopt. Hence most people only want to trade it. Change happens slowly. BTC will not overcome fiat in a short window. But over the next generation or two? 20-50 years its feasible. BTC adoption has only continued to grow. The current young generation may end up interacting and transacting in it then they grow up and say WTF do i need a bank account for? I've been exchanging BTC with my friends at school for 10 years via my wallet. Eventually he grows up and needs a bank account to transact with us older generational businesses but he creates a new business that just wants to cater to his friends and decides BTC transactions only. no banking fees no middle men. peer to peer transactions with instant settlement. 

 

And to the last point on central bank digital currency(CBDC). The best part of BTC is i still don't need a CBDC where they can print money and change the rules of the game. I can transact with the rest of the world in a currency thats not impacted by some central bank manipulating the system. If i need to transact in the CBDC currency i can swap out a little bit here or there to make that work. 

 

Im not gonna argue much more here. I've stated my stance. Its always the same old back and forth with the same people back and forth. 

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10 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Hi rkbabang,

 

1)  I've followed cryptocurrency and blockchain technology probably longer than anyone on here...since Overstock.com started accepting and buying BTC and buying up blockchain companies in 2013.  So to generalize and say there is a broad unwillingness to understand crypto is not fair.

 

2)  That's not why the post was deleted or moved.  The "Investment Ideas" Board is for stock-exchange listed stocks only.  Not for commodities, fixed income, currency, real estate, etc.  It acts as a library and research base for those listed stocks.  Many postings on there are moved to the "General Discussion" board if it does not fit that criteria.

 

Cheers!  

 

Got it.  Fair enough.  I didn't realize that commodities, fixed income, etc wasn't allowed there either.  Maybe the name should have been "Stock Ideas" rather than "Investment" Ideas. 

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On 12/20/2022 at 6:01 PM, ValueArb said:

 

There is a free $4B for the taking if they tender enough to bring GBTC up to NAV. The question isn't why they haven't done it already, the real question is why haven't they announced they are closing GBTC and everyone is getting bought out at the current $8 price? That's a free $4B for the promoters, unless their books aren't quite correct.

 

They e repurchased a few hundred million IIRC correctly, but that was also when the BTC prices were higher so still a losing trade despite the 20-30% to NAV that they were executed at. If the parent company wasn't also having liquidity issues at this point, I'd expect more repurchased to be made to sop up the excess liquidity from sellers in this market. 

 

And I doubt they can take out the whole trust. Would require me to give up my shares to them at 50% discount and I'm not taking anything less than 10% personally.

 

On 12/20/2022 at 6:01 PM, ValueArb said:

 

Today MARA is at $3.80. Alas my options expired worthless in january and I stopped looking at it until today. I was shocked to see revenues in most recent quarter dropped YOY from $51M to $13M. It wasn't just the drop in BTC price, but also the mining rewards getting halved. And even worse, their hosting and electricity costs were $14M last quarter, so they lost money on mining before $12M in G&A and other costs!

 

 

 

Yes. This is the perfect storm for miners. They had uncharacteristically high revenues in 2021 from the folding up of Chinese miners, easing of difficulty adjustments as a result, cheap energy, and a high BTC price. 

 

 

 

Literally all of those factors have reversed - difficulty near record highs, BTC price down 80%, and energy prices have risen across the board (even for renewables). And all of he mining equipment purchased in 2021 with record profits is now being delivered and coming online presently exacerbating the problem and killing ROI for those machines. And then add leverage to all of that... 

 

I've never purchased BTC mining equity before, but honestly now might be the time. Whoever survives this is going to have their pick if cheap equipment and a business model that works for BTC @ 15k when my belief is it will be significantly higher in 3-5 years. 

 

18 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

In the last 13 years S&P annual earnings have grown from $70 to $193, and dividends from 90 cents to $3.32.

 

Over the same time period Bitcoins annual earnings have gone from zero to zero, and dividends from zero to zero.

 

Yes. This is the "critical thinking" that has been present in this thread on the bear side for awhile now. Let's take something that's clearly a commodity, apply valuation mechanisms that only work for corporate structured companies, and then use that to poke holes in any non-zero value for the commodity. 

 

You know what else have non-zero prices and no cash flows? Cars. Homes. Wood. Copper. Gold. Iron. Rock. Etc etc etc.  

 

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16 minutes ago, Longnose said:

 

 

 

I agree that its all about adoption. I recognize that most people in the western world will be slow to adopt. Hence most people only want to trade it. Change happens slowly. BTC will not overcome fiat in a short window. But over the next generation or two? 20-50 years its feasible. BTC adoption has only continued to grow. The current young generation may end up interacting and transacting in it then they grow up and say WTF do i need a bank account for? I've been exchanging BTC with my friends at school for 10 years via my wallet. Eventually he grows up and needs a bank account to transact with us older generational businesses but he creates a new business that just wants to cater to his friends and decides BTC transactions only. no banking fees no middle men. peer to peer transactions with instant settlement. 

 

And to the last point on central bank digital currency(CBDC). The best part of BTC is i still don't need a CBDC where they can print money and change the rules of the game. I can transact with the rest of the world in a currency thats not impacted by some central bank manipulating the system. If i need to transact in the CBDC currency i can swap out a little bit here or there to make that work. 

 

Im not gonna argue much more here. I've stated my stance. Its always the same old back and forth with the same people back and forth. 

 

Agreed.  I was at the grocery store this summer and this old woman, probably in her 80s, was paying with a check.  I hadn't seen that in years.  She wrote out the check, then filled in info about it in the transaction journal above the check in her checkbook.  Here's someone who's never adopted credit cards or even debit cards.  I'm sure she wouldn't understand why anyone would need Applepay.   I came next and paid with my watch.

 

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35 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

Agreed.  I was at the grocery store this summer and this old woman, probably in her 80s, was paying with a check.  I hadn't seen that in years.  She wrote out the check, then filled in info about it in the transaction journal above the check in her checkbook.  Here's someone who's never adopted credit cards or even debit cards.  I'm sure she wouldn't understand why anyone would need Applepay.   I came next and paid with my watch.

 

 

+1 

 

I've also been a little slow to adopt some technologies. I didn't use my mobile wallet until the pandemic happened and I didn't want to touch the touchscreens at the store. Never really understood the value prop, but now it's nice to not have to always carry my wallet and all of my credit cards AND the transactions go MUCH faster than the traditional payment given today's chip technology. 

 

Also probably why it took my like 7-years to come around on BTC after celebrating every bust from 2013-2018. 

Edited by TwoCitiesCapital
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+1

 

Our Ukrainian venture was entirely priced in EUR from start/finish, with all cash settlements done in off-chain BTC; largely because it could be done from anywhere in the world, in real-time, and cheaply. Plus at lower amounts; CB currency control and transaction tracking can be easily circumvented. 

 

Ultimately it was no different to producing a good/service at home, and selling it in a foreign currency without any FX hedging to offset currency movement (i.e: everyday practice). Had we wanted to hedge, we would simply have bought CME puts, with a strike at the transaction date BTC/USD value. 

 

The hardest part was getting your head around making your profit in BTC, and NOT thinking in terms of USD/EUR/CAD equivalents (Profit = total BTC received - total BTC paid).

 

SD

Edited by SharperDingaan
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2 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

They e repurchased a few hundred million IIRC correctly, but that was also when the BTC prices were higher so still a losing trade despite the 20-30% to NAV that they were executed at. If the parent company wasn't also having liquidity issues at this point, I'd expect more repurchased to be made to sop up the excess liquidity from sellers in this market. 

 

And I doubt they can take out the whole trust. Would require me to give up my shares to them at 50% discount and I'm not taking anything less than 10% personally.

 

 

Yes. This is the perfect storm for miners. They had uncharacteristically high revenues in 2021 from the folding up of Chinese miners, easing of difficulty adjustments as a result, cheap energy, and a high BTC price. 

 

 

 

Literally all of those factors have reversed - difficulty near record highs, BTC price down 80%, and energy prices have risen across the board (even for renewables). And all of he mining equipment purchased in 2021 with record profits is now being delivered and coming online presently exacerbating the problem and killing ROI for those machines. And then add leverage to all of that... 

 

I've never purchased BTC mining equity before, but honestly now might be the time. Whoever survives this is going to have their pick if cheap equipment and a business model that works for BTC @ 15k when my belief is it will be significantly higher in 3-5 years. 

 

 

Yes. This is the "critical thinking" that has been present in this thread on the bear side for awhile now. Let's take something that's clearly a commodity, apply valuation mechanisms that only work for corporate structured companies, and then use that to poke holes in any non-zero value for the commodity. 

 

You know what else have non-zero prices and no cash flows? Cars. Homes. Wood. Copper. Gold. Iron. Rock. Etc etc etc.  

 

 

Homes have cash flows. They almost all have rental value.

 

Cars are depreciating capital investments. Wood, copper, Gold, iron, rock, etc are commodities with utility for producing goods.

 

Crypto doesn't have any cash flows, and hence any intrinsic value. Just like commodities. The difference is that no one needs crypto to build anything with any utility. The exception BTC has utility, BTC is useful for transfering money in situations where you lack access to the banking system or want anonymity. But every step away from BTC in the crypto space produces less utility. Why is Dogecoin needed for money transfers in situations where BTC works fine? Network effects means BTC wins. ETH is interesting because of smart contracts, but those contracts only have utility in creating and trading crypto, which has no intrinsic value or utility so ultimately ETH has little utility.

 

Prices in the crypto space are solely driven by money in/money out flows. If you can predict those flows you can profit. But it's just speculation, not investing. If money out flows decimate the S&P 500, causing it to drop 80%, so what? I can continue to hold it in my IRA and earn that fat 9% yield until the market recognizes its value again. If BTC drops 80% you have no way of knowing whether it wont' drop another 80% and no benefit from holding it.

 

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6 hours ago, rkbabang said:

 

Agreed.  I was at the grocery store this summer and this old woman, probably in her 80s, was paying with a check.  I hadn't seen that in years.  She wrote out the check, then filled in info about it in the transaction journal above the check in her checkbook.  Here's someone who's never adopted credit cards or even debit cards.  I'm sure she wouldn't understand why anyone would need Applepay.   I came next and paid with my watch.

 

 

She used a check that will take two days to clear through a data center.  You used a form of payment that debited your credit card or account instantaneously.  But at the end of the day, you both used the same fiat currency.  Neither of you paid through crypto.  Cheers!

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13 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

She used a check that will take two days to clear through a data center.  You used a form of payment that debited your credit card or account instantaneously.  But at the end of the day, you both used the same fiat currency.  Neither of you paid through crypto.  Cheers!

 

We were talking about older folks not adopting new technologies and how older systems need to be kept in place for them while they are here.   But of course, you are correct.  We both had to have accounts with 3rd parties and trust them to store our value safely and make the transactions we requested.  Neither of us paid the grocery store directly, that technology has yet to be adopted by them.

 

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I don't understand Caroline Elllison's affidavit. Isn't this just how all crypto works (outside of BTC and ETH)?

 

Quote

In July 2019, when FTX launched FTT, Alameda received a substantial portion of the 350 million FTT tokens that were minted, including all of the “company tokens” that were allocated to FTX. Alameda did not pay for these tokens.

 

Alameda programmed its automated trading tools (or “bots”) to conduct trades and execute transactions to purchase FTT at specific prices. On more than one occasion, Alameda and Ellison, at Bankman-Fried’s direction, actively engaged in the trading of FTT with the goal of supporting the price of the token. On these occasions, Alameda adjusted the trading parameters of its trading bots in order to support the price of FTT.

 

For example, in 2019, there was downward pressure on the price of FTT as the token was being unlocked for early-stage investors. Bankman-Fried became concerned about, among other things, the psychological effect of the price of FTT dropping below a specific threshold, and instructed Ellison to have Alameda purchase FTT to support the price and avoid that outcome. In another instance in 2021, the price of FTT was again facing downward pressure from external events, this time related to substantial sales of FTT by a third party. Bankman-Fried again instructed Ellison to have Alameda purchase FTT on trading platforms to support the price.

 

Edited by ValueArb
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I have never owned crypto. But maybe the bottom is close or is already in for BTC. The world's best counter-indicator says so:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3920549-jim-cramer-i-would-not-touch-crypto-in-a-million-years

 

Also, once you substract the 20% of BTC that is considered lost forever, its market cap is "only" $260B. Is that low enough for all the drug money, untaxed money, and billions of aid to Ukraine that may or may not have been funneled into thousands of BTC wallets? That's what the cynic in me thinks.

BTC may get another day in the sun. Is there a way to play BTC with options?

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, backtothebeach said:

I have never owned crypto. But maybe the bottom is close or is already in for BTC. The world's best counter-indicator says so:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3920549-jim-cramer-i-would-not-touch-crypto-in-a-million-years

 

Also, once you substract the 20% of BTC that is considered lost forever, its market cap is "only" $260B. Is that low enough for all the drug money, untaxed money, and billions of aid to Ukraine that may or may not have been funneled into thousands of BTC wallets? That's what the cynic in me thinks.

BTC may get another day in the sun. Is there a way to play BTC with options?

 

 

 

 

FTX will let sell you BTC futures, oops, well I'm sure that there is someone else selling BTC futures who is a trustworthy counterparty;)

 

Drug dealers and tax cheats had no problems when BTC's market cap was under $100B. The reality is that speculations are like the whip end of market liquidity, when there is a lot of liquidity they run up many times more than safe investments, when liquidity declines they collapse.

 

More specifically zero interest rates created a huge pot of money looking for higher returns, it peaked with stimulus payments adding to that mountain of liquidity that blew up the crypto/tech bubble. But now interest rates are increasing rapidly, that makes bonds far more attractive inflated to profitless speculations. I expect the fed to run up rates rate up to 5-6% next year, which will continue to drain liquidity from crypto and profitless tech speculations, and even profitable equities.

Edited by ValueArb
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On 12/17/2022 at 12:41 PM, Sweet said:


Is 13 years is long term history?  
 

Most people in crypto have been in it for a few years only.  This thread is from 2017 - 5 years.

 

Who buys crypto as a store of value?
 

What I see is people buying it in the hope of making it rich.  I would buy it for that reason.

 

As a store of value, it’s supposedly an argument for crypto, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen a person actually buying for that reason.  


Is that really why you bought it?

 

Look better. This is not the original thread. The naming of this threat showed focus was lost not gained (original threat was called Bitcoin NOT cryptocurrencies like this one).

 

Remember Bitcoin is decentralized while the others are not (basically none of them) and all off the major panics stem from problems of centralization. Bitcoin IS a long term store of value. Everything else is pure speculation. 

 

I don't post here often but am often amazed of the simple-mindedness of many clearly very intelligent people (to be clear: NOT targetted at the post I'm responding to specifically). This really shouldn't be very difficult.

 

Carry on 😅

And happy holidays! 🎅

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On 12/23/2022 at 5:28 PM, ValueArb said:

I don't understand Caroline Elllison's affidavit. Isn't this just how all crypto works (outside of BTC and ETH)?

 

 

 

Arbitrarily created tokens aren't a cryptocurrency.

 

There are many others that are marketed/sold as cryptocurrency that aren't yes but that doesn't make your statement true as those aren't cryptocurrrencies  just unregistered self issued securities with literally zero decentralized aspects.

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2 hours ago, wachtwoord said:

I don't post here often but am often amazed of the simple-mindedness of many clearly very intelligent people (to be clear: NOT targetted at the post I'm responding to specifically). This really shouldn't be very difficult.

 

Carry on 😅

And happy holidays! 🎅🏻 


It can be converted to dollars, and its value has increased a lot in the past decade+, so in some ways you are right, it is a store of value.

 

However that value has dropped 75% from its high though, and that’s a mark against it being a store value since it can lose so much.  
 

I also recently read that even most long terms holders (6 months or more) are now losing money.  No idea if true.

 

I’m happy for anyone to be believe it is a store of value and invest accordingly - I don’t care it’s your money.

 

I personally don’t trust that it will act as store of value long term, and would never buy for that reason.  I also don’t value crypto, I value assets like land, real estate or businesses.
 

I’d speculate on it however.

 

I’ll never understand why advocates of crypto need to evangelise the world though.  I am also confused why otherwise intelligent individuals cannot understand that when an asset produces nothing, it’s value is basically subjective.

 

 

Edited by Sweet
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4 hours ago, wachtwoord said:

 

Arbitrarily created tokens aren't a cryptocurrency.

 

There are many others that are marketed/sold as cryptocurrency that aren't yes but that doesn't make your statement true as those aren't cryptocurrrencies  just unregistered self issued securities with literally zero decentralized aspects.


These tokens are literally cloned off the Bitcoin code base, created just as arbitrarily is Bitcoin was, snd are just as decentralized as Bitcoin. The only difference is that BTC is harder to manipulate.

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6 hours ago, Sweet said:


It can be converted to dollars, and its value has increased a lot in the past decade+, so in some ways you are right, it is a store of value.

 

However that value has dropped 75% from its high though, and that’s a mark against it being a store value since it can lose so much.  
 

I also recently read that even most long terms holders (6 months or more) are now losing money.  No idea if true.

 

I’m happy for anyone to be believe it is a store of value and invest accordingly - I don’t care it’s your money.

 

I personally don’t trust that it will act as store of value long term, and would never buy for that reason.  I also don’t value crypto, I value assets like land, real estate or businesses.
 

I’d speculate on it however.

 

I’ll never understand why advocates of crypto need to evangelise the world though.  I am also confused why otherwise intelligent individuals cannot understand that when an asset produces nothing, it’s value is basically subjective.

 

 

 

You are on a value orriented investment and think that 6 months is long term and you value investment by recent price action?

 

It's a store of value due to its intrinsic characteristics and it's extremely obvious if you'd actually take a look.

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2 hours ago, ValueArb said:


These tokens are literally cloned off the Bitcoin code base, created just as arbitrarily is Bitcoin was, snd are just as decentralized as Bitcoin. The only difference is that BTC is harder to manipulate.

 

You clearly have no idea what you are talking about or even where to look.

 

1. These tokens are fully centralized and ran by a central party

2. Even if you do copy Bitcoin literally and allowed anyone to run it that would not automatically lead to a similar level of centralization.

 

I'm always amazed how otherwise intelligent people like to pretend to have a well formed opinion about something they clearly know nothing about. It's fine to not know things and to not look into it to learn because you chose it does not interest you. It's (morally) bad to pretend to know what you are talking about and spread misinformation. And for what? To stroke your own ego?

 

Anyway, I'll leave it at this again I've said enough.

 

I take my head of for eg Rkabang snd others here who are showing angelic patience trying to help others on this board. I decided it's unnecessary as people that are truly interested can go back years on this board and find the sane discussions that are being held today. Nothing material changed and people keep falling for the same things. Story of the world I guess.

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39 minutes ago, wachtwoord said:

 

You are on a value orriented investment and think that 6 months is long term and you value investment by recent price action?

 

It's a store of value due to its intrinsic characteristics and it's extremely obvious if you'd actually take a look.


I never said what I am.  


That’s true believer stuff you just posted.  
 

I’m sorry, but Bitcoin has no objective intrinsic value.  It just doesn’t.


It has subjective intrinsic value for you, and plenty of others, but not me.

 

The benefits of Bitcoin are not even unique to Bitcoin, but to the blockchain technology.

 

At this stage you’d have to be living under a rock to not know the basics of Bitcoin.  At no point in nearly 10 years has anyone ever demonstrated it’s ‘extremely obvious’ intrinsic value because none exist.

 

For my part I had a chance to buy Bitcoin around $100 - one I regret passing up.  My regret is that it turned into this huge speculative asset class that blew up, one that I was exposed to at an early stage, and had the money and opportunity to advantage of but didn’t.

 

However I’ve never fooled myself into believing it was anything more than a speculative bet - because it isn’t.


 

 

Edited by Sweet
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1 hour ago, wachtwoord said:

 

You clearly have no idea what you are talking about or even where to look.

 

1. These tokens are fully centralized and ran by a central party

2. Even if you do copy Bitcoin literally and allowed anyone to run it that would not automatically lead to a similar level of centralization.

 

I'm always amazed how otherwise intelligent people like to pretend to have a well formed opinion about something they clearly know nothing about. It's fine to not know things and to not look into it to learn because you chose it does not interest you. It's (morally) bad to pretend to know what you are talking about and spread misinformation. And for what? To stroke your own ego?

 

Anyway, I'll leave it at this again I've said enough.

 

I take my head of for eg Rkabang snd others here who are showing angelic patience trying to help others on this board. I decided it's unnecessary as people that are truly interested can go back years on this board and find the sane discussions that are being held today. Nothing material changed and people keep falling for the same things. Story of the world I guess.


Instead of taking your toys home, you could instead promote discussion by defining “centralization” and cite facts that show differences between BTC and other crypto currency’s beyond trading volume. I'll be happy to admit when I'm wrong, because it means I'm learning something new.


But if you can’t rebut my post with anything other than a tirade, it just seems like you are emotionally involved in a speculation that you don't really understand. 

Edited by ValueArb
Better communicate my point with less inflammatory language
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1 hour ago, Sweet said:


I never said what I am.  


That’s true believer stuff you just posted.  
 

I’m sorry, but Bitcoin has no objective intrinsic value.  It just doesn’t.


It has subjective intrinsic value for you, and plenty of others, but not me.

 

The benefits of Bitcoin are not even unique to Bitcoin, but to the blockchain technology.

 

At this stage you’d have to be living under a rock to not know the basics of Bitcoin.  At no point in nearly 10 years has anyone ever demonstrated it’s ‘extremely obvious’ intrinsic value because none exist.

 

For my part I had a chance to buy Bitcoin around $100 - one I regret passing up.  My regret is that it turned into this huge speculative asset class that blew up, one that I was exposed to at an early stage, and had the money and opportunity to advantage of but didn’t.

 

However I’ve never fooled myself into believing it was anything more than a speculative bet - because it isn’t.


 

 

 

But why? You seem to have your final opinion cemented quite hard in your brain already. Bitcoin has no intrinsic value 😅

 

Anyway I'll play nice and share this article from 2012 (once again) which has all the content you should need to understand this. New link cause the original link is dead.

 

https://medium.com/lux-initiative/bitcoin-the-libertarian-introduction-c616edd8496c

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1 hour ago, ValueArb said:


Instead of taking your toys home, you could instead promote discussion by defining “centralization” and cite facts that show differences between BTC and other crypto currency’s beyond trading volume. I'll be happy to admit when I'm wrong, because it means I'm learning something new.


But if you can’t rebut my post with anything other than a tirade, it just seems like you are emotionally involved in a speculation that you don't really understand. 

 

Again: this has all been discussed over 8 years ago and nothing changed so I suggest you go read it if you truly want to know (I doubt it).

 

You can also read the article I posted above but you could have easily found this in old posts on this very forum.

 

My comment here today was just me lamenting. I don't think there's much to add on the subject. Especially not at the level this discussion is stuck at. 

 

What rkababang and the others are doing is a Sisyphean Task.

 

Merry Christmas!

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