Spekulatius Posted March 16, 2023 Author Posted March 16, 2023 7 hours ago, benchmark said: Given the new 'reality' that deposits are safe, if anyone buy them at the current price, they are getting it cheap. I do think FRC is a dead man walking. JPM is probably going to buy this for $1.
sleepydragon Posted March 16, 2023 Posted March 16, 2023 I am surprised schw is up yesterday. schw is really hard to say if its price is overvalued or bargaining now..
Xerxes Posted March 16, 2023 Posted March 16, 2023 Steve Eisman showed up for about 10 min on CNBC. “Don’t be Hero” he says “Don’t be Hero to Zero” he says (no he didn’t say that I made it up)
Spekulatius Posted March 16, 2023 Author Posted March 16, 2023 (edited) Not that great (deposits moving to MM funds) if true. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deposits-started-moving-money-market-145355809.html I always think that headlines that we are having wakes up people wo tend to do nothing and often get them to do something. When you have access cash that is sitting there, then the question is why not move this to XXX where it's safe and I earn interest? Again, stuff can be sticky until it isn't. Edited March 16, 2023 by Spekulatius
Gregmal Posted March 16, 2023 Posted March 16, 2023 4 hours ago, Xerxes said: Steve Eisman showed up for about 10 min on CNBC. “Don’t be Hero” he says “Don’t be Hero to Zero” he says (no he didn’t say that I made it up) Eisman is very underrated. Great, flexible thinker. Some people you can just tell see the world in probability rather than black and white.
kh812000 Posted March 16, 2023 Posted March 16, 2023 (edited) Eisman basically said the financial sector is uninvestible. More regulation is coming even excluding any other financial black swans out there. These regulations will clamp down on ALL banks, meaning even the "too big to fail" will suffer.... I'm with him 100% Edited March 16, 2023 by kh812000
Spekulatius Posted March 16, 2023 Author Posted March 16, 2023 (edited) @Gregmal good interview. He does have a point on commercial real estate towards the end. Just looking at BXP and VNO charts shivers my timbers. Edited March 16, 2023 by Spekulatius
Gregmal Posted March 16, 2023 Posted March 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: @Gregmal good interview. He does have a point on commercial real estate towards the end. Just looking at BXP and VNO charts shivers my timbers. Yea I have a starter in HIW and forgot how the elevator down goes during crunches like this. Ugh. The VNO/SLG/BXP s of the world, idk but it seems like so many people want to make a value investment out of them that they still aren’t even really “that” out of favor. Basically the WPG or Macerich of the office Reit world. The whole way down people think they’re contrarian and point to the dividend and then one day you look and have an 80% loss and it’s like oh, gee, how’d that happen. ALX though looks good due to simplicity plus higher probability now that VNO buys them for the cash, but office in general is toast. The only people still doing massive offices the last few years were tech and finance lol….whoops.
Gregmal Posted March 16, 2023 Posted March 16, 2023 8 minutes ago, dealraker said: Won't affect Brookfield... Actually it’ll be good for them!
dealraker Posted March 16, 2023 Posted March 16, 2023 9 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Actually it’ll be good for them! Yes particularly given they only count the good stuff. LOL. Just being silly.
Dinar Posted March 16, 2023 Posted March 16, 2023 14 minutes ago, dealraker said: Yes particularly given they only count the good stuff. LOL. Just being silly. You just jealous cause Bruce is a creative accountant and you aint!
dealraker Posted March 16, 2023 Posted March 16, 2023 Just now, Dinar said: You just jealous cause Bruce is a creative accountant and you aint! LOL. Listened to too many of the wife's calls through the years stating to clients (actually she was emotionally screaming) that iffin' they didn't shape up she was gunna be gone. She had this restaurant owner client named Harold (high school classmate - bright rebellious dropout) who had a dive in "the fan" in Richmond, served one meal a day and had bands later in the evening. Jammed up place, people waiting in line; he paid himself (this was 35 years ago) $80k a year and made a profit above that of $120k a year. Dude bought boats and swimming pools but wouldn't do his payroll taxes. Padlocked door...became streetwalker who didn't recognize us...died. So messin' wiffin' them books ain't my game!
Spekulatius Posted March 16, 2023 Author Posted March 16, 2023 So FRC loses $30B in deposits, likely to JPM, BAC, PNC etc and those create a residue package and give back the $30B to FRC and everyone is happy. Anyways, here is an interesting chart from Twitter: I say this much, if any line item below FRC fails, all the hell will break lose.
CorpRaider Posted March 17, 2023 Posted March 17, 2023 (edited) PNC only gave a billion. I can't believe Citi gave $5 billion. I hope they sent it to the right bank this time. Edited March 17, 2023 by CorpRaider
Mephistopheles Posted March 17, 2023 Posted March 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, CorpRaider said: PNC only gave a billion. I can't believe Citi gave $5 billion. I hope they sent it to the right bank this time. Lmao
Spekulatius Posted March 17, 2023 Author Posted March 17, 2023 (edited) I guess it’s like with TARP, not taking the medicine wasn’t an option. Now this time, the bankers self insure and not kicking in wasn’t an option either. Feels like March 2008 when Bear Stearns failed, I am afraid. This fellows says, the near term banking crisis is over, but I don’t think so: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/first-republic-receive-30b-deposits-223938171.html Edited March 17, 2023 by Spekulatius
Gregmal Posted March 17, 2023 Posted March 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Spekulatius said: I guess it’s like with TARP, not taking the medicine wasn’t an option. Now this time, the bankers self insure and not kicking in wasn’t an option either. Feels like March 2008 when Bear Stearns failed, I am afraid. This fellows says, the near term banking crisis is over, but I don’t think so: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/first-republic-receive-30b-deposits-223938171.html A lot of ways it reminds me of the Gamestop crisis. They keep trying to cut the head off behind the scenes and the market keeps sniffing it out and pushing harder for something to break. IMO the only reasonable solution is for Powell to clearly indicate that they are gonna sit tight for a bit at 5%. Giving reasons for any part of the curve to blow out more will be wild. They need things to settle here.
Spekulatius Posted March 17, 2023 Author Posted March 17, 2023 Yes, I think we get another 0.25% raise and then they will let it sit there and let things stabilize hopefully. The confidence termites chewing on foundations of the banking system is not a good thing.
John Hjorth Posted March 17, 2023 Posted March 17, 2023 52 minutes ago, CorpRaider said: PNC only gave a billion. I can't believe Citi gave $5 billion. I hope they sent it to the right bank this time. 44 minutes ago, Mephistopheles said: Lmao Lmao +1!
mcliu Posted March 17, 2023 Posted March 17, 2023 7 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Not that great (deposits moving to MM funds) if true. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deposits-started-moving-money-market-145355809.html I always think that headlines that we are having wakes up people wo tend to do nothing and often get them to do something. When you have access cash that is sitting there, then the question is why not move this to XXX where it's safe and I earn interest? Again, stuff can be sticky until it isn't. My understanding is that while you can withdraw deposits individually, collectively the aggregate amount of deposits do not change. ex. When you buy a treasury, someone else has to sell the treasury and deposit the cash. It almost seems like aggregate deposits depends on the amount of "money" or credit outstanding. 1 hour ago, CorpRaider said: PNC only gave a billion. I can't believe Citi gave $5 billion. I hope they sent it to the right bank this time. LOL classic
LearningMachine Posted March 17, 2023 Posted March 17, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Anyways, here is an interesting chart from Twitter: How trustworthy is the table above from twitter? Does anyone know the original source, and how it was put together? I looked at the profile of the person who tweeted it, but can't tell from the profile if it is someone who would have put together this table from authoritative sources of info. Edited March 17, 2023 by LearningMachine
DooDiligence Posted March 17, 2023 Posted March 17, 2023 https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/svb-signature-racked-up-some-high-rates-of-uninsured-deposits-74747639
Spekulatius Posted March 17, 2023 Author Posted March 17, 2023 (edited) On 3/14/2023 at 8:05 PM, tnathan said: M&T is the pick for me. Seems they didn’t overextend on the maturities and it trades cheaper than the others. @tnathanCould you elaborate on $MTB. MTB has been a value investors favorite from what i can remember. the CEO writes very well written shareholder letters and the bank is sensibly run. I did notice relatively high commercial real estate exposure (~$43B vs ~$23b in equity) as well as high non performing loans - ~1.85% of the total. That's a very high number in the current economic framework. They do not have egregiously large holdings of long duration securities though. FWIW, i bought a few shares as part of my regional bank stock basket. Edited March 17, 2023 by Spekulatius
Gregmal Posted March 17, 2023 Posted March 17, 2023 Unintended consequences of raising interest rates in hopes of making people poorer? Rich folks demanding more interest on their deposits. Because we all know rich people only control a small percentage of the overall wealth…
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