Michael Burry’s current holdings

[Guest]

1 hour ago, rogermunibond said:

Maybe someone introduced Burry to Hussman

 

It's funny to describe someone with Aspergers as overdramatic.

 

Why's that? It's a social disorder. It's not an emotional disorder. 

 

I mean you don't think saying we would have hyperinflation and comparing the US to Weimer Germany would fall into that category?

[ERICOPOLY]

Individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) often have co-morbid anxiety and depression. Alexithymia and emotion regulation difficulties are commonly seen in individuals with ASD and in mood disorders. 

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7375152/#:~:text=Individuals with autism spectrum disorder,ASD and in mood disorders.

[CorpRaider]

I had a PDF with all of his investor letters and old message board posts.  Got if from one of the posters on here if I recall.  Did not think it suited me well as someone to study and try to emulate.  I think I deleted.  I  was impressed that he made most (?) of his counterparties post collateral for the swaps he used to short structured credit (unlike most of the others...as I understand from media accounts), but I was persuaded by Li Lu's public remarks that it (the Big Short) wasn't a good bet when you factor in solvency risk and other potential issues related to collecting on the contracts.

Edited August 16, 2022 by CorpRaider

[Gregmal]

He is a guy you want to pay attention to but my sense is that he has become more consumed with getting attention and being “the guy who called it” versus just making money. It’s a common phenomenon with these hedge fund guys. After awhile it becomes about ego more than anything else. Why else would you see people publicly campaigning short positions that aren’t even a double digit position in their book or talking up cash that earns nothing or gold which let’s face it, ain’t unique either. Most guys change after they make their fortune. Just how it is.

[ERICOPOLY]

11 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

He is a guy you want to pay attention to but my sense is that he has become more consumed with getting attention and being “the guy who called it” versus just making money.

 

When you manage money, you make money off of other people's money.  

 

Trumpeting a past success is possibly just marketing in this business.

[John Hjorth]

Last week, his transactions even hit the news media here in tiny Denmark in Europe. Honestly, I don't care one whit.

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, ERICOPOLY said:

 

When you manage money, you make money off of other people's money.  

 

Trumpeting a past success is possibly just marketing in this business.

 

I see that you're learning from your Pabrai experience, Eric! 

Edited August 16, 2022 by stahleyp

[Gregmal]

6 minutes ago, stahleyp said:

 

I see that you're learning from your Pabrai experience, Eric! 

Has Pabrai actually had real quantifiable investing success? Lol 

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Has Pabrai actually had real quantifiable investing success? Lol 

 

Is 26% per year not quantifiable?

[stockman500]

I wonder if he sells out of his positions when the news of him having those positions moves those stocks up.

Not illegal, but it would seem a bit immoral if he did that.

 

Like GEO went up 15% in 2 days on the news that that was the only stock position he held. 

[Guest]

40 minutes ago, stockman500 said:

I wonder if he sells out of his positions when the news of him having those positions moves those stocks up.

Not illegal, but it would seem a bit immoral if he did that.

 

Like GEO went up 15% in 2 days on the news that that was the only stock position he held. 

 

Why is that immoral?

[bizaro86]

51 minutes ago, stockman500 said:

I wonder if he sells out of his positions when the news of him having those positions moves those stocks up.

Not illegal, but it would seem a bit immoral if he did that.

 

Like GEO went up 15% in 2 days on the news that that was the only stock position he held. 

 

I don't think the firms he picks on average support that as a primary motivator. I mean, based on his average holding period he probably sells GEO, and that bump probably helps him.

 

But if you look at what he had the quarter before there was lots of big cap stuff that wouldn't move at all on the news.

 

If he was trying to make money monetizing his fame in the market, he's definitely smart enough to know how to do so successfully. If he was buying only a few large positions in highly liquid, highly volatile small caps every quarter that would be one thing. As a thought experiment - what do you think would happen if he took a position in something like GME or BBBY? 10% of his fund for 1 day around quarter end and then load up on options the week before the filing drops (and maybe add a tweet or two) and he'd be killing it.

[Parsad]

12 minutes ago, stahleyp said:

 

Why is that immoral?

 

Yeah, it wouldn't be immoral.  He's not talking up the stock.  If investors are stupid enough to follow every one of his buys by reading his 13-F's, then that's their problem not his.  It would be the same with Buffett or Seth Klarman's 13-F's.  

 

Now if he was doing 120 slide powerpoints like Ackman and Einhorn at huge conferences with hundreds of hedge fund managers and investors...that would be immoral!  Cheers!

[changegonnacome]

I have simple theory on Burry’s latest 13F filing….it’s a 13F played for laughs( and attention) using the imperfect filing date moment in time snapshot…..it’s kind of joke to him to liquidate his positions on the day previous to 13F reporting…. bar a prison stock for effect of course….there’s a message in there too clearly regarding his bearishness….which was previously expressed with puts that DID show up in previous 13F but are gone now….I’m sure he loaded all these bearish positions up again the very next day.

[Guest]

13 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Yeah, it wouldn't be immoral.  He's not talking up the stock.  If investors are stupid enough to follow every one of his buys by reading his 13-F's, then that's their problem not his.  It would be the same with Buffett or Seth Klarman's 13-F's.  

 

Now if he was doing 120 slide powerpoints like Ackman and Einhorn at huge conferences with hundreds of hedge fund managers and investors...that would be immoral!  Cheers!

 

To one man an action is "immoral". To another, that man is intolerant and a bigot because of his views of said actions.

 

Perhaps you do believe in moral truths then, Sanj? 

 

 

[Longnose]

14 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

I have simple theory on Burry’s latest 13F filing….it’s a 13F played for laughs( and attention) using the imperfect filing date moment in time snapshot…..it’s kind of joke to him to liquidate his positions on the day previous to 13F reporting…. bar a prison stock for effect of course….there’s a message in there too clearly regarding his bearishness….which was previously expressed with puts that DID show up in previous 13F but are gone now….I’m sure he loaded all these bearish positions up again the very next day.

 

He's bought and sold GEO a couple times now...  Definitely trading it based on valuation / technicals.

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, Longnose said:

He's bought and sold GEO a couple times now...  Definitely trading it based on valuation / technicals.

for sure but selling everything and leaving only that on the 13F filing day returns is kind of a laugh for him…..designed to do exactly what this thread is doing….get attention and get people talking. I assume also there’s an element of if things turn out as he’s predicted he can point back to a contemporaneous 13F filing but I think that’s kind of a nice bonus. This is a 13F played for laughs and folks should see it that way. 

 

when I saw it reported in financial media - I laughed out loud….he knew exactly what he was doing the 13F filing thing is a joke and anybody who clones them too closely wants their head examined. The only 13F’s worth paying attention too are from managers who adhere to and have track records of running relatively concentrated portfolios and holding positions long term.

 

The most extreme of the opposite of this is David Tepper….if your following his 13F well you’ve officially lost the plot.

[Paarslaars]

15 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

The only 13F’s worth paying attention too are from managers who adhere to and have track records of running relatively concentrated portfolios and holding positions long term.

Anyone in mind? Cause I remember even Buffet held on to his IBM investment for 6 years ending break even.

[changegonnacome]

Off the top of my head:

 

RVCapital

Chuck Akre

Greenlight

Giverney

Baupost

Bronte

 

Now lets differentiate between whether I think those managers are good or not...or worth following not gonna get into it......what I'm really pointing is that at least their 13F's are basis for gaining some insights to what they believe will do well over say 5 years.......they are thoughtful about what they own, they tend to own it in concentration and they dont churn the portfolio too much such that positions remain in their 13F over time.......but YOU have to figure out whether you think they are 'good' and whether you agree with their company choice.......the biggest mistake in 13F diving is buying into something based on a filing of a hot manager, doing little DD yourself....then the stock falls and the next 13F filing comes out & your guru has sold out of the position..........its a recipe for buying high and selling low IMO.

[bennycx]

Very smart move on hindsight!

[Guest]

2 put positions. Really hard to say how big they but look huge at least. 

[Gregmal]

I remember last year around this time when it was reported to be a very big deal that Burry “sold all his stocks!!!”. 

[Spekulatius]

Burry has become a rapid fire swingtrader. I bet his current positions are already different than what was posted on 6/30.

[Castanza]

11 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Burry has become a rapid fire swingtrader. I bet his current positions are already different than what was posted on 6/30.

Can’t blame him in this environment tbh. There is so much volatility even among solid companies. The puts are surprising though. 

[ValueArb]

4 hours ago, stahleyp said:

2 put positions. Really hard to say how big they but look huge at least. 

 

They are probably around $30M, not that big at all. Just some hedge that he might not even own anymore.