China

[Luke]

35 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

You can apologize for China all you like. I’m simply saying China has proven their danger to the world. They are not at all apologetic about the disastrous lab leak. They said it originated from wet markets, and stymied all efforts to identify the true origin. China is definitely a world power and a dangerous one at that. Uncontrollable biological weapons tells you what you need to know.

 

Make all the excuses you like for them.

Its just not the truth and so one sided, China has proven their danger to the world with what? Having a lab accident and not allowing foreigners to do research there afterwards? They suffered their fair share of Covid 19 too. Everybody talking about the "China threat" but what does that actually mean? Who is building military bases all over the world? Who is invading foreign countries under whatever reason? If China would do 1/10th of what the US does theyd be viciously attacked and the whole western media apparatus would bang out one negative piece after another. 

 

Uncontrollable biological weapons lol...i can only laugh about that. The US may as well hide Aliens in Area 51 too attack the russians with that soon.

 

Western investors have a complete bias against china and a blind eye for problems with and in the US. I am also not apologizing for china, all I want is to have a neutral view on the developments that are happening and to actually understand what's going on. 

 

[Luke]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

The cold war turning hot may not mean direct confrontation between China and the US, it could be by means of a proxy war. Most likely the cause would be around Taiwan, I think, but there could be other point of contact.

In any case, i think if you are western investor in China, and the cold war turns hot for whatever reason, you are looking at a zero here. If you invested in Apple, I think you are looking at a 2/3 loss here unless they diversified their supply chain when that unhappy day should come (likely takes a decade from here).

 

As investors, we can have an opinion on how things should be, but it doesn't matter. It is more important to observe. XJP has hardened his stance in foreign politics. Both Republicans and Democrats now regard China as an adversary. XJP has a stated goal to bring Taiwan back into the fold by 2027. US stated that they would defend Taiwan. This is what matters, not what you and I think.

 

China for me is "uninvestible" but that does not mean you can't speculate with Chinese stocks. I would personally keep the timeframe short and be aware of the wipeout risk. Others may have a different view.

Okay, so China will attack Taiwan and the US will deploy all their naval forces there? China can fire with all their missiles and both parties will be so severely weakened, Taiwan probably destroyed, the economy with it. What's realistic here? 

Most businesses will go down the shitter, severely. Inflation will be on unseen levels, so will be unemployment, huge depression for many years. Chomsky even went as far as saying if there is a war between china and the US "we are finished".  

 

Who would escalate it to that level? The US? Who wants this war?

 

Taiwan invasion is off the table for many years, military war is off the table per se. All they can do is some trade war and stop sending their machines, so what, China has access to TSMCs chips, they are spending much on research and i think its possible they come up with their own semiconductor champions. 

 

Edited July 7, 2023 by Luca

[zippy1]

Just want to recommend a great website for those who want to observe China.  This QSThoery website is from CCP central office.
http://www.qstheory.cn/
This article written by XJP was published on 06/30.  This was originally from a speech made by XJP in March, 2022.  The reason of publishing this article after its first delivery likely is that it is the direction CCP will go.
I think members of CCP and officials of government will be thinking along the guidance of this article:
http://www.qstheory.cn/dukan/qs/2023-06/30/c_1129723161.htm 
The article is in Chinese but should be translatable with ChatGPT. 

[Blugolds]

34 minutes ago, Luca said:

Its just not the truth and so one sided, China has proven their danger to the world with what? Having a lab accident and not allowing foreigners to do research there afterwards? They suffered their fair share of Covid 19 too. Everybody talking about the "China threat" but what does that actually mean? Who is building military bases all over the world? Who is invading foreign countries under whatever reason? If China would do 1/10th of what the US does theyd be viciously attacked and the whole western media apparatus would bang out one negative piece after another. 

 

Uncontrollable biological weapons lol...i can only laugh about that. The US may as well hide Aliens in Area 51 too attack the russians with that soon.

 

Western investors have a complete bias against china and a blind eye for problems with and in the US. I am also not apologizing for china, all I want is to have a neutral view on the developments that are happening and to actually understand what's going on. 

 

China Is building the most brazen military bases in the world in the SCS. And any country that sends abortion death squads to villages to forcibly remove or “dispose” of babies because of a one child policy tells you everything you need to know. That would never happen in the US. So continue to advocate for the CCP. I do not want to live in a world controlled by the CCP, but from your frequent posts in this thread it seems that you’re all for it.  

[Luke]

13 minutes ago, zippy1 said:

Just want to recommend a great website for those who want to observe China.  This QSThoery website is from CCP central office.
http://www.qstheory.cn/
This article written by XJP was published on 06/30.  This was originally from a speech made by XJP in March, 2022.  The reason of publishing this article after its first delivery likely is that it is the direction CCP will go.
I think members of CCP and officials of government will be thinking along the guidance of this article:
http://www.qstheory.cn/dukan/qs/2023-06/30/c_1129723161.htm 
The article is in Chinese but should be translatable with ChatGPT. 

Thanks a lot for sharing @zippy1 I fast read through most of the sections, as expected the basic line is again: He wants what's good for the people and for the country. Also, the section with focussing not on just economic growth and development but also on good development, is miles better than what's happening in the US. If something harms the economy and the majority of the people, the CCP will ban and regulate it, no lobby, no questions asked. Might seem scary, but just look at the awful healthcare sector in the US. The massive control of businesses over congress, etc. Sure, the US is the most pro business country there is and it's a great place to invest, but stock market and economy are two different things. What about wage growth for average joe? What about diabetis medication for average susie? How do the citizens feel? Where is the wealth of the nation? How gated are the communities? 

 

I said it before, the huge inequality of where the wealth flows in the US harms their economic growth, political stability and sustainability. China knows that pressuring wages are stimulative for technological development and efficiency growth, they know that inefficient monopolies harm the overall economy and quality of life. Stock buybacks and dividends only get you so far. 

[Luke]

14 minutes ago, Blugolds11 said:

China Is building the most brazen military bases in the world in the SCS. And any country that sends abortion death squads to villages to forcibly remove or “dispose” of babies because of a one child policy tells you everything you need to know. That would never happen in the US. So continue to advocate for the CCP. I do not want to live in a world controlled by the CCP, but from your frequent posts in this thread it seems that you’re all for it.  

So China builds military bases close around their country. Look at where the US has military bases, everywhere. And they will threaten anybody who builds bases around them. 

 

And common man, abortion death squads, you cherry-pick one terrible thing of china and as I said, completely ignore US history and atrocities. 

 

This week, the non-profit National Security Archive, along with the National Declassification Center, published a batch of U.S. diplomatic cables covering that dark period. While the newly declassified documents further illustrated the horror of Indonesia’s 1965 mass murder, they also confirmed that U.S. authorities backed Suharto’s purge. Perhaps even more striking: As the documents show, U.S. officials knew most of his victims were entirely innocent. U.S. embassy officials even received updates on the executions and offered help to suppress media coverage. While crucial documents that could provide insight into U.S. and Indonesian activities at the time are still lacking, the broad outlines of the atrocity and America’s role are there for anyone who cares to look them up.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/the-indonesia-documents-and-the-us-agenda/543534/

 

 

If one points out the hypocrisy, you only hear "oh my god" "Putin lover" "communist" "CCP sheep"

 

Whenever the US does mass murders or tortures prisoners, its fine. When China does it: Nuke them now and take away their factories+stop sending them technology!!

 

China is fine as long as they produce American iPhones, as long as the dividends from Apple flow into the fat financial military district that the US has become!

Edited July 7, 2023 by Luca

[tnp20]

Not splitting hairs but taking a pragmatic approach here .....

 

Long term China is screwed, why ? :-

(i) Demographics issue will catch up but with delay

(ii) Lack of basic freedoms and rights (property rights) that go hand in hand with a true capitalistic society

(iii) World's best talent wont move there (unless we make USA a right wing white suprematist shit hole that hates foreigners)

(iv) Its miltary wont be > US + alliances

(v) Yuan wont be the reserve currency because XJP's policies are ultimately contradictory to true open flows of capital

 

Short/Medium term I am bullish, why ?:-

(i) China has to play the game set by the west to make progress towards their 2035 goal - ie wont rock the boat near term

(ii) Urbanization is 65%, Korea and Japan is 80-90% so another decade or two of strong growth still in the tank...reforming the Hokou system and greater urbanization move frees up rural labor to mitigating aging working population

(iii) They will continue to open up their markets and economy - this is what they have to do to have any chance of Yuan being the replacement for the dollar.

(iv) Huge potential in domestic consumption and developing the larger middle class

(v) Valuations in China are very cheap

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[cubsfan]

52 minutes ago, Luca said:

Its just not the truth and so one sided, China has proven their danger to the world with what? Having a lab accident and not allowing foreigners to do research there afterwards? They suffered their fair share of Covid 19 too. Everybody talking about the "China threat" but what does that actually mean? Who is building military bases all over the world? Who is invading foreign countries under whatever reason? If China would do 1/10th of what the US does theyd be viciously attacked and the whole western media apparatus would bang out one negative piece after another. 

 

Uncontrollable biological weapons lol...i can only laugh about that. The US may as well hide Aliens in Area 51 too attack the russians with that soon.

 

Western investors have a complete bias against china and a blind eye for problems with and in the US. I am also not apologizing for china, all I want is to have a neutral view on the developments that are happening and to actually understand what's going on. 

 

You are SO wrong.

 

Its the coverup that China unrolled for years, not the lab leak. It’s the coverup.

[crs223]

“US spreads spreads war to push its agenda; COVID leak was an accident”.

 

“if you like abortion death squads so much, why don’t you move to China?“

 

[John Hjorth]

8 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

You are SO wrong.

 

Its the coverup that China unrolled for years, not the lab leak. It’s the coverup.

 

1 minute ago, crs223 said:

“US spreads spreads war to push its agenda; COVID leak was an accident”.

 

“if you like abortion death squads so much, why don’t you move to China?“

 

It would be nice to getting back to sharing facts.

[Luke]

Outsourced manufacturing to the disadvantage of the average American worker (rust belt), financial sector that controls more than half of the world's economic productivity, more hedge funds than stocks in the US, own real citizens not getting wealthier, increasing political instability and extremism...they can't even compete in manufacturing anymore due to higher costs. Now if the factories are gone and industrial Asia starts developing their own superior products and starts exporting: 

 

Washington goes to war!

[Blugolds]

18 minutes ago, Luca said:

So China builds military bases close around their country. Look at where the US has military bases, everywhere. And they will threaten anybody who builds bases around them. 

 

And common man, abortion death squads, you cherry-pick one terrible thing of china and as I said, completely ignore US history and atrocities. 

 

This week, the non-profit National Security Archive, along with the National Declassification Center, published a batch of U.S. diplomatic cables covering that dark period. While the newly declassified documents further illustrated the horror of Indonesia’s 1965 mass murder, they also confirmed that U.S. authorities backed Suharto’s purge. Perhaps even more striking: As the documents show, U.S. officials knew most of his victims were entirely innocent. U.S. embassy officials even received updates on the executions and offered help to suppress media coverage. While crucial documents that could provide insight into U.S. and Indonesian activities at the time are still lacking, the broad outlines of the atrocity and America’s role are there for anyone who cares to look them up.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/the-indonesia-documents-and-the-us-agenda/543534/

 

 

If one points out the hypocrisy, you only hear "oh my god" "Putin lover" "communist" "CCP sheep"

 

Whenever the US does mass murders or tortures prisoners, its fine. When China does it: Nuke them now and take away their factories+stop sending them technology!!

 

China is fine as long as they produce American iPhones, as long as the dividends from Apple flow into the fat financial military district that the US has become!

one child policy ended in…2016!! And that is definitely not “one cherry picked thing” in chinas history. America is not perfect, far from it for sure. Plenty of skeletons in the closet. But if I have to chose I choose the USA x10000. 
 

I have zero problems with Chinese people, I am not anti China, I’m anti CCP. Now you take that however you want. Either you say they are different things or they are the same. If you say they are the same then you are just reiterating the point. There is no freedom in China. 
 

I can’t tell if you are more pro China or Anti US. You say you just want unbiased facts but then every post of yours, sometimes several in a row, are either bashing the US or advocating for how great China is. Surprised you’re on a message board whose namesake heralds from Canadian and US dirty companies, is there a Chinese alternative you would feel more comfortable in? No there is not…and we all know why Berkshire and Fairfax are not HQ’s in China…
 

 

Edited July 7, 2023 by Blugolds11

[Luke]

15 minutes ago, tnp20 said:

Not splitting hairs but taking a pragmatic approach here .....

 

Long term China is screwed, why ? :-

(i) Demographics issue will catch up but with delay

(ii) Lack of basic freedoms and rights (property rights) that go hand in hand with a true capitalistic society

(iii) World's best talent wont move there (unless we make USA a right wing white suprematist shit hole that hates foreigners)

(iv) Its miltary wont be > US + alliances

(v) Yuan wont be the reserve currency because XJP's policies are ultimately contradictory to true open flows of capital

 

Short/Medium term I am bullish, why ?:-

(i) China has to play the game set by the west to make progress towards their 2035 goal - ie wont rock the boat near term

(ii) Urbanization is 65%, Korea and Japan is 80-90% so another decade or two of strong growth still in the tank...reforming the Hokou system and greater urbanization move frees up rural labor to mitigating aging working population

(iii) They will continue to open up their markets and economy - this is what they have to do to have any chance of Yuan being the replacement for the dollar.

(iv) Huge potential in domestic consumption and developing the larger middle class

(v) Valuations in China are very cheap

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lack of basic freedoms? I see Chinese citizens all over the world, traveling, doing happy selfies etc. They too have state capitalism but with a state that accepts and does more regulation. 

 

Demographics are an issue i agree, will monitor it closely. 

 

World best talent wont move there but spawns inside. And yeah, i think with all the hate against China, Chinese people don't feel particularly good in the US, didnt even Li Lu sponsor some foundation that fights against racism against asians?

 

 

 

[Luke]

8 minutes ago, Blugolds11 said:

one child policy ended in…2016!! And that is definitely not “one cherry picked thing” in chinas history. America is not perfect, far from it for sure. Plenty of skeletons in the closet. But if I have to chose I choose the USA x10000. 

You are willing to pick one atrocity the chinese did to make a case that China is horrible while ignoring all the other cherries of horrible acts by the US government. 

8 minutes ago, Blugolds11 said:

I have zero problems with Chinese people, I am not anti China, I’m anti CCP. Now you take that however you want. Either you say they are different things or they are the same. If you say they are the same then you are just reiterating the point. There is no freedom in China. 

I also have zero problems with americans, i was talking about the people in the US government. Never said those two are the same. If you really believe there is NO freedom in China i completely disagree, in fact, i see chinese people everywhere and they are not telling me what a horrible country it is and how opressed and suffering they are.

8 minutes ago, Blugolds11 said:

I can’t tell if you are more pro China or Anti US. You say you just want unbiased facts but then every post of yours, sometimes several in a row, are either bashing the US or advocating for how great China is. 

This is the china thread, right now the sentiment in western media almost NEVER points out something where china is doing something good. China is a threat, china is doing this bad and this bad. You tell me if it's biased! I am just sick of not actually having a factual discussion about what they are actually doing good and what's positive about china. 

 

That the US is the greatest country in the world, an investors heaven etc is pretty mainstream opinion. 

Edited July 7, 2023 by Luca

[Luke]

23 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

You are SO wrong.

 

Its the coverup that China unrolled for years, not the lab leak. It’s the coverup.

Yes, i wrote that they stopped people from investigating. You are talking about biological weapons and releasing a virus against their "enemies" (while virtually harming themselves maybe even more)

[SharperDingaan]

You might want to consider the USD losing its current status as the worlds reserve currency. Lot of work going on that will replace the USD with a supra-national CBDC for use in nation-to-nation trade settlements. US/China/BRICS as roughly equals.

 

The reality is that both the Chinese and US economies are economically about the same size. Settle the bulk of global payments independently from tourist/remittance flows, the gorillas get smaller/more manageable, and the focus shifts to global people flow. 

 

Not going to happen soon, but it will happen, and probably within the next decade. 

Not a bad thing.

 

SD

[Viking]

26 minutes ago, Luca said:

You are willing to pick one atrocity the chinese did to make a case that China is horrible while ignoring all the other cherries of horrible acts by the US government. 

I also have zero problems with americans, i was talking about the people in the US government. Never said those two are the same. If you really believe there is NO freedom in China i completely disagree, in fact, i see chinese people everywhere and they are not telling me what a horrible country it is and how opressed and suffering they are.

This is the china thread, right now the sentiment in western media almost NEVER points out something where china is doing something good. China is a threat, china is doing this bad and this bad. You tell me if it's biased! I am just sick of not actually having a factual discussion about what they are actually doing good and what's positive about china. 

 

That the US is the greatest country in the world, an investors heaven etc is pretty mainstream opinion. 

@Luca  Have you watched the video below? The liberal democracies of the West and the CCP are completely different animals. When i watch this video it makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up. It provides a great real life  example of how the CCP operates - basically it does whatever it needs to do to stay in power… WITH ZERO CHECKS AND BALANCES. Yes, all liberal democracies are flawed. But the CCP is a frightening form of government (putting it politely).

 

 

[cubsfan]

28 minutes ago, Luca said:

Yes, i wrote that they stopped people from investigating. You are talking about biological weapons and releasing a virus against their "enemies" (while virtually harming themselves maybe even more)

Of course, that is a lie. I said China was a powerful and dangerous country. That is what I said. 
 

Their behavior during the coverup phase led to the deaths of MILLIONS of people - which you so callously disregard. China stonwalled at every point.

 

Now you are just blaming the victims - And ignoring the true culprits.

 

”Why does nobody trust China, you ask?” 
 

You just don’t like the answer 

[Spekulatius]

Applause everyone:

 

[crs223]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

Its the coverup that China unrolled for years

 

US and China both tried to cover up the lab leak.  (I don’t understand why the US wanted to cover it up.)

 

I don’t follow the logic “millions of deaths prevented if China did not cover up COVID origin”.

 

 

 

[tnp20]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3226039/china-mounts-cultural-offensive-win-war-narratives-against-us-will-other-countries-be-swayed?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=share_widget&utm_campaign=3226039

 

"However, analysts said that while Beijing could succeed at boosting cultural pride within China, it might struggle to convince the rest of the world of its alternative to the Western-dominated global order."

 

The top economies in 2050 will be USA, China, India, Indonesia (the exact order is debatable). No one is going to convince India and Indonesia to join "China order", let alone Europe, Japan, Korea, Anazc.

 

China's best hope is LATAM and Africa. I think the world order will still be western led over our lifetimes.

[Gregmal]

Asking most brainwashed westerners about China is equivalent to asking your wife if your girlfriend is pretty….

[sleepydragon]

people has to keep in mind there are different camps in China's political systems too. You can tell from the social media reaction of Yellen's visits to the Chinese restaurant. People I know in china are all talking about Yellen ordered 3 mushroom dishes. Yellen's visit is going to strengthen the pro-western camps in China.  

[zippy1]

3 hours ago, Luca said:

Thanks a lot for sharing @zippy1 I fast read through most of the sections, as expected the basic line is again: He wants what's good for the people and for the country. Also, the section with focussing not on just economic growth and development but also on good development, is miles better than what's happening in the US. If something harms the economy and the majority of the people, the CCP will ban and regulate it, no lobby, no questions asked. Might seem scary, but just look at the awful healthcare sector in the US. The massive control of businesses over congress, etc. Sure, the US is the most pro business country there is and it's a great place to invest, but stock market and economy are two different things. What about wage growth for average joe? What about diabetis medication for average susie? How do the citizens feel? Where is the wealth of the nation? How gated are the communities? 

 

I said it before, the huge inequality of where the wealth flows in the US harms their economic growth, political stability and sustainability. China knows that pressuring wages are stimulative for technological development and efficiency growth, they know that inefficient monopolies harm the overall economy and quality of life. Stock buybacks and dividends only get you so far. 

The way that most CCP members will use this kind of articles is different than the way you used it, though.  

one way they use it is like the following: if a party member is going to propose a policy change, they will check through this article to see whether they can find "support" to claim that their policy change proposal is to bring about the "intended results" based on XJP's thought.  At the same time, they will check whether their proposal can be viewed as against XJP’s thought by others (including their political competitors/ enemies.)

For example, if one is going to propose to abolish the Hu-Kuo system, he/she will check against this article to see whether he/she can gain support or can get in trouble or not. 

Another way is to compare the article against earlier articles to check the difference to see whether there is any indications about the change of the “direction.”

[cubsfan]

3 hours ago, crs223 said:

 

US and China both tried to cover up the lab leak.  (I don’t understand why the US wanted to cover it up.)

 

I don’t follow the logic “millions of deaths prevented if China did not cover up COVID origin”.

 

 

 

 

For sure, Dr Fauci, the US media and corrupt administration did all they could to cover up the real issues. So yeah, the behavior of our own government and media was contemptible.

 

Million of deaths MAY have been prevented if China had come clean right from the beginning about the lab leak, and assisted the rest of the world. They just choose to deny, deny and deflect.

 

China proved they are not to be trusted.

 

We shouldn't be surprised from a country that runs concentration camps for Muslims.

Edited July 7, 2023 by cubsfan