Russia-Ukrainian War

[changegonnacome]

Given this is a geopolitcal event driving equity values everywhere right now - it deserves its own thread on an investing forum. I'll start it off (stolen from a post i did in a Taiwan thread):

 

The Ukraine invasion at a base level is about a petro-dollar economy, in the age of decarbonization, that is strategically weak already but for sure to be weaker still in decades.......... re-asserting a buffer zone (Ukraine & Belarus) that was laid down after the fall of the USSR, implicitly blessed by the USA and the West as being strategically important for Russian security in the age of the EU/NATO.......I say these things not to condone what Putin is doing, he's a monster and pig........but he is currently acting rationally for someone who's alternative to be being in the office, is being dead......and was watching over the years the EU/NATO/USA moving further & further East into the agreed "NATO/Russia buffer zone" of Ukraine with overtures around them joining NATO etc. etc.

 

Nobody likes to say it - but Ukraine's role in life & in European peace and security (& indeed global peace & security) is/was to straddle the East & West while making the strategically weaker partner feel safe that they had some kind of buffer zone...Ukraine is/was a pawn in the balance of powers equilibrium game (ala Kissinger) that has kept Europe peaceful now for 75+ years. The mistake was to encourage Ukraine to divert itself so completely towards pleasing or 'joining' the West & giving them some false sense that we would ACTUALLY support them in a conflict against Russia.....which in turn hardened their political stance in regard to Ukranian-Russian relations & negotiations in regards to Eastern Ukraine....this aggressive pivot to the West was encouraged by the EU/USA and it shouldn't have been. 

 

The end game for Vladmir IMO is to completely WRECK Ukraine over the next few weeks and months and then leave......such that whatever is left wont be joining ANYTHING anytime soon that might threaten Russian security........and Putin in 20 years time will die in the Kremlin Palace surrounded by friends, families and ass kissers with Russia's borders exactly as they were when he assumed power. It's all a tyrant dictator in a strategically weak and weakening position could wish for.

[Xerxes]

Wrong forum. I recommend going to the “political” forum. 

[Viking]

I think your analysis is 35 years old (perhaps longer). It was accurate when the Soviet Union still existed. And it was true when Czarist Russia still existed. The simple answer is world has changed dramatically the past 35 years and your analysis completely misses this fact. China is a great example. Japan as well. Russia as well.

Your analysis completely misses one really important concept: what do the individual countries in eastern Europe want? How badly do they want it? How much are they prepared to sacrifice to get what they want?

 

Lets forget about Ukraine for a minute. Lets look at the 3 Baltic states: Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Look at the incredible advancements these three countries have made in improving the quality of life for their citizens since breaking free from the Soviet Union in 1990. It is breathtaking. Do you think the people in these countries want to get re-assimilated into Russia because of some outdated view of history?
 

The problem with your analysis is it completely misses all the changes that have happened in all the individual countries in eastern Europe. They ARE NOT the same countries they were 35 years ago. BECAUSE THE EXPECTATIONS OF THE PEOPLE HAVE CHANGED. Its not the FAULT of the US. Or NATO.
 

Your analysis is all about Russia and its ‘historical right’ to take back what it once had. That is BS. Empires fall. Its that Darwin thing. Survival of the fittest. Russia is in decline and has been for 50-60 years. And by invading Ukraine, Putin is simply accelerating the decline. 
 

The individual countries in eastern Europe all want a better life. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are great examples of what is possible. All countries in eastern Europe want what the Baltic countries are achieving: a better life today and for future generations. SELF DETERMINATION. Ukrainia’s pivot to the West was all about a better path to build a better future - self determination. 
 

Now for a country in eastern Europe to build a better life IT HAS TO ESCAPE THE SHACKLES OF RUSSIA. Lots of countries were able to escape and they understood NATO was the only option to remain free. Ukraine unfortunately was late to pivot to the West and was not able to join NATO. Russia, a dying empire, is now trying to re-establish its old borders. And the Ukrainian people are putting up an incredible fight. 
 

History is littered with examples of empires that rise and fall. Dictatorships do not decline quietly. What we are seeing is the end of the Russian empire. And we are seeing individual  countries in eastern Europe exercise their right to self determination. A new chapter is now being written in history book of eastern Europe.

—————

Lets pretend you are married to a complete asshole. A drunk. Beat you every day of your life. Treated your kids like shit (beat them too). And then one day you escaped - you found a place to live where you were no longer beaten… You divorced your husband. You found a job… your quality of life improved… your kids future looked bright. Every day you thanked your lucky stars you had been able to escape your old abusive relationship. 
 

And then one day your old husband showed up. Said he did not ‘recognize’ the divorce. And that you and your kids MUST move back in with him. It is obvious he is drunk. So what do you do? You decide to fight… and to fight to the bitter end. That is what is going on in Ukraine. And it is incredible to watch what they have been able to accomplish so far.

 

We are learning THE PEOPLE OF EASTERN EUROPE ARE DONE WITH LIVING IN THE RUSSIAN EMPIRE. Brave new world.

[Gregmal]

Man that reads like an OP-ED from the Washington Post, written by a gender neutral Czech, who's grandparents and parents both grew up in the US, Viking. While there are certainly people there that want the American way of life, theres others that dont. Meanwhile in America everyone thinks the rest of the world is envious of our way of life, and frankly, that just isnt true. All these "oligarchs"(aka private citizens and individuals being persecuted simply because of their nationality) that are being hunted like witches have the resources to be wherever they want, as do the numerous athletes from old USSR and current Eastern European nations. Many of which still call these places home, and by choice. Trump or Biden doesnt reflect everything about me, an American, nor does Trudeau(hopefully) represent you. But today we have no problem casting blankets on the Ukrainian and Russian people like its a Yankees/Red Sox game. 

[Viking]

@Gregmal i did not say the people in Ukraine are fighting because they want an ‘American’ way of life. I did not write about the US at all. I thought i was writing about Ukraine. And the Ukraine people. And what they want. And willing to die for.
—————

The Ukrainian people are fighting for the ‘Ukrainian way of life’ and the ability to determine what that is. That self determination thing…

—————

So you might find it helpful to forget for a second that you are American. Pretend that you live in Kiev today. With your family. Russian bombs are reducing the city to rubble. Some of your friends/family are probably dying. What are you thinking about? American way of life? Please… When you put your head in the mouth of a lion what do you think it is going to do? Ukrainian’s have been there before and they aren’t stupid. And they are fighting like hell. 

Edited March 4, 2022 by Viking

[Gregmal]

That’s the whole thing, you can pretend to forget what you are but you can’t reasonably put yourself in the shoes of something you know nothing about. As much as you may want to envision living in Ukraine or Russia you can’t. Nor can you envision living in South Africa and a black person, or a white person, and trust me, there’s a huge difference there too. Your “vision” will still be skewed by western bias. Plenty of Eastern Europeans who come to America love it, and still keep ties to their home countries. And it’s not cuz they’re forced to. Interesting side note a friend of mine was looking at Ilya Kovalchuks old NJ mansion which is current up for sale; an absolutely breathtaking place. But that’s besides the point. Kovalchuk has been in the US since a teenager. His family has homes in NJ, and CA, in addition to back in Russia. They in fact, prefer to have their kids go to school in Russia. By choice! Imagine that. There’s different ways of life and cultural values and it all doesn’t fit in a box. War is an unfortunate and ugly part of life. But it’s known to the inhabitants of those areas as a possibility. They can stay or leave or whatever. It sucks, but the people make choices. As others have mentioned, the US and EU have done tons to destabilize Ukraine. They deserve lots of criticism. But hey, now Brandon has his excuse for higher gas prices and fucking up the economy! Great success! Poke the bear enough and eventually the bear creates a gigantic mess. Then euthanize the bear and say it was cuz he was a violent threat. The western way.

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

 

If Captain Jean Luc Picard was reading this, he would say, “we cannot violate the Prime directive”

 

lots of emotional inertia, like there was with 2011 Arab spring. 10 years later back to what it was. 
 

I see a dark future. I see barb lines, and DMZ cutting through Ukraine. I see de-population. I see garrisons. I see a cesspool of hate & nationalism & blame that will take 40 years to heal. 
 

putin had said: “there is no reason for the world to exist if there is no Russia” At some point Zelensky has in turn to decide if “there is no reason for the world to exist if there is no Ukraine”. Very sad.  

Edited March 4, 2022 by Xerxes

[boilermaker75]

7 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

 

putin had said: “there is no reason for the world to exist if there is no Russia” At some point Zelensky has in turn to decide if “there is no reason for the world to exist if there is no Ukraine”. Very sad.  

 

I think if you asked Putin, "When will the world end," his response would be, "With my death." 

 

That is why this is scary. If it gets to the point there is no way out for him he will try to take everyone out.

Edited March 4, 2022 by boilermaker75

[Xerxes]

4 minutes ago, boilermaker75 said:

 

I think if you asked Putin, "When will the world end," his response would be, "With my death." 

 

That is why this is scary. If it gets to the point there is no way out for him he will try to take everyone out.

 In the other thread in the political section I alluded to Nixon’s Mad Man theory. For the threat of mutually assured destruction to be credible, one must appear credibly out of hinge and irrational. Or we can hope. 

 

[Gregmal]

5 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

 In the other thread in the political section I alluded to Nixon’s Mad Man theory. For the threat of mutually assured destruction to be credible, one must appear credibly out of hinge and irrational. Or we can hope. 

 

That’s IMO what kept things in check with Trump. He just might have been crazy enough to hit the red button if Kim Jung got out of hand. And that had to be considered. And the majority of Americans agree, even amongst democrats, that Putin would not have pulled this if Brandon hadn’t been elected. Not coincidentally, the last time he did this was….under who’s watch? The establishment politicians have no surprise factor. You know exactly what they’ll do and respond and to a mad man that works in their favor.

 

Some get why they voted for, and others just have to live with it unfortunately.

[SharperDingaan]

The reality is that the USSR used to be a super-power. Now it's just Russia, and its the junior in what are now three super-powers.

The powers that be recognize they have little remaining time at the top, and want their 'glory' days back! Gaming wise they have little to lose - whether death by misadventure, or death by dementia/failing health, death is still very near.

 

The world has moved on, whereas these individuals were not able to.

THE big takeaway from 1945, was that an early and successful assassination would have saved millions of lives. The SECOND takeaway was that population/infrastructure replacement will touch off a long and sustainable economic boom. Putin in a box, as an economic policy; wars exist because it was not possible to reach a political solution.

 

Lot of direct investment opportunities presenting themselves, but expect to lose everything invested.

The reality is that trying to predict outcome on the other side of a difficult regime change is impossible. In the meantime try to take in as many Ukrainians as you can, get them to safety, support them in a fresh start, and get out of their way. Stand up to be counted when it mattered, and you will reap the rewards for DECADES to come.

 

SD

 

Edited March 4, 2022 by SharperDingaan

[Viking]

58 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

That’s the whole thing, you can pretend to forget what you are but you can’t reasonably put yourself in the shoes of something you know nothing about. As much as you may want to envision living in Ukraine or Russia you can’t. Nor can you envision living in South Africa and a black person, or a white person, and trust me, there’s a huge difference there too. Your “vision” will still be skewed by western bias. Plenty of Eastern Europeans who come to America love it, and still keep ties to their home countries. And it’s not cuz they’re forced to. Interesting side note a friend of mine was looking at Ilya Kovalchuks old NJ mansion which is current up for sale; an absolutely breathtaking place. But that’s besides the point. Kovalchuk has been in the US since a teenager. His family has homes in NJ, and CA, in addition to back in Russia. They in fact, prefer to have their kids go to school in Russia. By choice! Imagine that. There’s different ways of life and cultural values and it all doesn’t fit in a box. War is an unfortunate and ugly part of life. But it’s known to the inhabitants of those areas as a possibility. They can stay or leave or whatever. It sucks, but the people make choices. As others have mentioned, the US and EU have done tons to destabilize Ukraine. They deserve lots of criticism. But hey, now Brandon has his excuse for higher gas prices and fucking up the economy! Great success! Poke the bear enough and eventually the bear creates a gigantic mess. Then euthanize the bear and say it was cuz he was a violent threat. The western way.

@Gregmal The whole reason we are discussing this top is to share ideas, better understand the situation and hopefully learn something new along the way. 
- ‘walk in someone else's shoes’ is a mental model i have used for years for lots of different situations. I find it useful. Clearly you don’t. Just because it doesn’t work for you doesn’t mean it doesn’t work for others. Of course, i have no idea how ordinary Ukrainians are feeling right now - they are living real time though a human catastrophe. But i will TRY to understand.
- if a stud Hockey player of Russian descent want to raise his family in Russia that is great. Back to that self determination thing. My comments previously about Russia are referencing the Russian state - not the Russian people.

- Russia does not have a right (legal or moral) to invade a sovereign country and bomb and kill its inhabitants. Because it was ‘poked’ by Europe/US? Seriously? Even if true, it does not justify his actions. Is that the new threshold for war? 
- Putin told us exactly why he went into Ukraine. Well he keeps updating the list of reasons. The latest is he is liberating the country: ‘de-Nazification’. Not the ‘poke’ thing you mention… got to prevent the genocide… his words. 

————-

As Russian bombs pound Ukraine, and its soldiers pour into Ukrainian territory, the question on everyone’s mind is: Why? What does Russia hope to accomplish with a massive invasion?

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin gave his version of an answer in his televised speech Wednesday night, announcing a “special military operation” whose “goal is to protect people who have been abused by the genocide of the Kyiv regime for eight years.” Ultimately: “We will strive for the demilitarization and de-Nazification of Ukraine, as well as bringing to justice those who committed numerous bloody crimes against civilians.”

 

- https://www.vox.com/2022/2/24/22948944/putin-ukraine-nazi-russia-speech-declare-war

Edited March 4, 2022 by Viking

[Gregmal]

8 minutes ago, Viking said:

‘walk in someone else's shoes’ is a mental model i have used for years for lots of different situations. I find it useful. Clearly you don’t.

I use it when it can be applied. I dont when trying to do so will just give me a false sense of understanding and arrogance. 

 

Imagine what its like not to be able to afford groceries. I can put myself in those shoes.

 

Imagine being black and gay and living in Saudi Arabia. I cant do that. Being honest with yourself and your limitations is crucial to anything. Saying I could do the later would be arrogant and disrespectful to the people really in that situation. 

Edited March 4, 2022 by Gregmal

[Dinar]

Guys, I do not have an answer for you, but a number of my friends happen to be either Russians from Russia proper, or Ukrainians from Russia proper, all of whom live in the US.  While everything that Gregmal says is true - we did poke the bear, the real problem in their eyes is the fact that Putin cannot tolerate a prosperous Ukraine next to Russia.  Same people (ethnically/culturally) thriving while people under his rule are doing very poorly.  Are my friends/acquaintances correct?  I do not know, but that is one theory.  Another, much scarier theory that they expressed is that he has gone crazy.  A third one is that he just miscalculated - surrounded by sycophants who told me that Ukrainians would welcome him with open arms and Crimean campaign - a military success would be repeated again.  I do think that we are making a mistake.  We need to find a way for Putin to save face and claim victory (without actually winning), otherwise I am afraid this bloodshed and destruction will only continue to increase.  Russia cannot win this war, but it can cause hundreds of thousands of deaths.  

[Gregmal]

2 minutes ago, Dinar said:

We need to find a way for Putin to save face and claim victory (without actually winning), otherwise I am afraid this bloodshed and destruction will only continue to increase.  Russia cannot win this war, but it can cause hundreds of thousands of deaths.  

Exactly. I was having a discussion the other day with some folks about this. Putin is very much like Trump where his ego leads him to constantly and compulsively "call and raise". He doesnt have a winning hand here and the only real way out, peacefully is for someone to recognize this. Not keep calling his bluff because that will end badly. 

[ValueArb]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances

 

"1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine;

2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or

political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations;

3. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind;"

 

Putins invasion goal was to install a puppet government so he could control the Ukraine. That seemed doable before the invasion, now it seems audacious. He may have pivoted to trying to wreck the Ukraine's economy to make it less able to withstand Russian coercion and interventions. 

 

What's likely going to happen is he'll eventually take Kyiv and most of the eastern part of Ukraine at a very heavy loss in Russian military equipment and lives. He'll try to install a fake government over essentially "The Republic of Eastern Ukraine" supported by Russian troops, but it will still suffer heavily from guerrilla attacks and assassinations. I think eventually he'll be forced to withdraw Russian forces back to Crimea and Donbas, the puppet regime will fail, and that the US, Britain and EU will use seized Russian reserves to rebuild Ukraine.

 

The alternative is regime change in Moscow, which would quickly lead to withdrawal of troops, a peace agreement and probably collapse of the Donbas as I think the new Russian leaders won't want any of Putin's bloody ulcer.

Edited March 4, 2022 by ValueArb

[CorpRaider]

From what I've read, Ukraine is like 5 WW1 sopwith camels with machine guns away from just absolutely decimating those russian columns.  I wonder if those migs from the eastern european countries (that the US is going to replace with good jets have arrived yet).

Edited March 4, 2022 by CorpRaider

[changegonnacome]

Listen we can talk all day about how we got here - it’s only useful in terms of what happens next.
 

Forget the mad man theory - if he is mad it’s no use anyway in trying to predict what happens next.

 

Lets presume for the purposes of an investment discussion, he’s rational.

 

if he’s rational - I think the aim is to wreck Ukraine so that nobody can “have it” - West or East. Buffer restored & the West doesn’t poke the bear again as @Gregmal rightly says. He will have thought the West he may be a declining state but one that makes credible threats when it feels it’s sovereignty or sphere of influence is encroached upon (save it for another thread on whether you think he’s right or wrong).

 

If the above is the case this is a regional conflict that ends in Ukraine in tatters and kind of frozen conflict.

 

The two big errors I see are (1) that politicians in the US & EU, driven by public support for Zelinsky/Ukraine, to please their public put boots on the ground and get into a fight with a Putin/Russia who have way less to loose than we have….all Vladimir’s nightmares of being the Tzar in charge when Russia itself collapsed to Western forces would appear before his eyes and we aren’t in Kansas anymore  (2) Ukrainian forces in an attempt to draw the West into the fight concoct some circumstance to precipitate an entry by NATO. For example steal some Russian weaponry & launch it at Poland. Why wouldn’t they? They would argue they’ve spent the last 10 years being told by NATO/USA/EU that they ‘stand’ with the Ukrainian people and democracy & freedom……but have found out everyone is an idealist till they get punched in the face….and now nobody is showing up to help at the darkest hour…..we send our sympathies & money & weapons….and do everything to help, short of helping.
 

 

Edited March 4, 2022 by changegonnacome

[ValueArb]

4 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Listen we can talk all day about how we got here - it’s only useful in terms of what happens next.
 

Forget the mad man theory - if he is mad it’s no use anyway in trying to predict what happens next.

 

Lets presume for the purposes of an investment discussion, he’s rational.

 

if he’s rational - I think the aim is to wreck Ukraine so that nobody can “have it” - West or East. Buffer restored & the West doesn’t poke the bear again as @Gregmal rightly says. He will have thought the West he may be a declining state but one that makes credible threats when it feels it’s sovereignty or sphere of influence is encroached upon (save it for another thread on whether you think he’s right or wrong).

 

If the above is the case this is a regional conflict that ends in Ukraine in tatters and kind of frozen conflict.

 

The two big errors I see are (1) that politicians in the US & EU, driven by public support for Zelinsky/Ukraine, to please their public put boots on the ground and get into a fight with a Putin/Russia who have way less to loose than we have….all Vladimir’s nightmares of being the Tzar in charge when Russia itself collapsed to Western forces would appear before his eyes and we aren’t in Kansas anymore  (2) Ukrainian forces in an attempt to draw the West into the fight concoct some circumstance to precipitate an entry by NATO. For example steal some Russian weaponry & launch it at Poland. Why wouldn’t they? They would argue they’ve spent the last 10 years being told by NATO/USA/EU that they ‘stand’ with the Ukrainian people and democracy & freedom……but have found out everyone is an idealist till they get punched in the face….and now nobody is showing up to help at the darkest hour…..we send our sympathies & money & weapons….and do everything to help, short of helping.
 

 

 

NATO, the US and the EU aren't putting troops into this conflict, they are doing a lot to help the Ukraine but they refuse to enforce a no fly zone or do anything that could provoke a confrontation with the little bear cub. I mean right now they won't even sell used MIGs to the Ukraine.

 

Ukraine isn't going to attack Poland to provoke a wider war, Poland is front and center doing the most to help them and is their most important ally. Maybe if the Ukrainian government would disintegrate and the war devolves into a bunch of regional guerrilla fights. Then maybe radical Ukrainian freedom fighting group would pull some whacky stunt but I think they would be far more motivated for a terrorist attack on Moscow than on a friend that is probably still supplying them. And it wouldn't work anyways.

 

This is Putins Vietnam. The Ukrainians are never going to surrender, even if the government is wiped out and replaced, they will be fighting across the Ukraine for as many years as it takes to eject the Russians and restore their government, and they'll be way better supplied and unified than the Vietnamese ever were.

[CorpRaider]

End game is he stops at the river to save face, best case scenario.  More likely he gets whacked or deposed because of all the Russian body bags and pissed off starving oligarchs (and Xi).  No man is an island.  I mean they can't even take mariopol which is like RIGHT on the border of crimea.

 

Edited March 4, 2022 by CorpRaider

[Parsad]

Putin will win this unless his generals step up and replace him.  Why?

 

1)  Ukraine is not part of the European Union or NATO...so they will continue to only get limited support from outside, otherwise we risk a World War in Europe again.

2)  Putin wants to protect his border and prevent any further progress of NATO or democracy...so if he gives up Ukraine, he will want major concessions...if he does not get them, he will take over Ukraine after all of the bluster from NATO.

3)  Putin has some sort of illness or knows he may be deposed...this is the scenario I don't want to think of...the f**k you to the World after I'm gone scenario.  In this case, his generals have to stop him.

 

The comparison to Vietnam is a good one, but probably won't last nearly as long.  If they take over cities fairly quickly, I think the World/UN will have to accept Ukraine becoming part of Russia fairly quickly, and the Russian people will have to suffer for 5-10 years as sanctions remain in effect and economic prosperity will continue to elude them...the price you pay for Putin remaining leader.  Cheers!

[mcliu]

This showed up on my YouTube. Not sure if this is fake news, but Ukraine uses actual neo-nazi units in their military? What the actual fuck?

 

[mcliu]

2 hours ago, CorpRaider said:

End game is he stops at the river to save face, best case scenario.  More likely he gets whacked or deposed because of all the Russian body bags and pissed off starving oligarchs (and Xi).  No man is an island.  I mean they can't even take mariopol which is like RIGHT on the border of crimea.

 

It's not conclusive that if Putin is going, he'll be replaced by a pro-West democratic govt.

Isn't there possibility that someone even worse comes along?

 

4 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Exactly. I was having a discussion the other day with some folks about this. Putin is very much like Trump where his ego leads him to constantly and compulsively "call and raise". He doesnt have a winning hand here and the only real way out, peacefully is for someone to recognize this. Not keep calling his bluff because that will end badly. 

This is the way.

[Dinar]

17 minutes ago, Parsad said:

Putin will win this unless his generals step up and replace him.  Why?

 

1)  Ukraine is not part of the European Union or NATO...so they will continue to only get limited support from outside, otherwise we risk a World War in Europe again.

2)  Putin wants to protect his border and prevent any further progress of NATO or democracy...so if he gives up Ukraine, he will want major concessions...if he does not get them, he will take over Ukraine after all of the bluster from NATO.

3)  Putin has some sort of illness or knows he may be deposed...this is the scenario I don't want to think of...the f**k you to the World after I'm gone scenario.  In this case, his generals have to stop him.

 

The comparison to Vietnam is a good one, but probably won't last nearly as long.  If they take over cities fairly quickly, I think the World/UN will have to accept Ukraine becoming part of Russia fairly quickly, and the Russian people will have to suffer for 5-10 years as sanctions remain in effect and economic prosperity will continue to elude them...the price you pay for Putin remaining leader.  Cheers!

Parsad, there was Ukrainian guerrilla warfare for nearly a decade after the end of WW2 against the Soviet Union; the USSR with its battle tested army could not finish the Bandera guerrillas for a decade.  Russia will defeat Ukraine, I am highly confident of that, but there is zero chance in hell that it will be able to control the territory.  If it does win, it will need a local puppet government, not actual Russian control - they will not be able to achieve control.  

[Parsad]

56 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Parsad, there was Ukrainian guerrilla warfare for nearly a decade after the end of WW2 against the Soviet Union; the USSR with its battle tested army could not finish the Bandera guerrillas for a decade.  Russia will defeat Ukraine, I am highly confident of that, but there is zero chance in hell that it will be able to control the territory.  If it does win, it will need a local puppet government, not actual Russian control - they will not be able to achieve control.  

 

I agree with that, but he will essentially get control or concessions from the West...via puppet regime or directly.  The point is, the Ukrainian people are in for a world of hurt and deprivation for a decade...the West essentially cannot intervene without the war spreading to NATO countries.  Cheers!