Russia-Ukrainian War

[scorpioncapital]

does Putin not want Ukraine to join Nato or the EU as well? You can have Eu country that is not NATO. But it is funny since the world seems to be sending equipment to Ukraine anyway so its very loose definition. It would be very easy for Ukraine to join EU and not Nato (perhaps like romania/bulgaria but with the same neutrality as Sweden or Finland). can't see what the objection would be to that. Maybe Ukraine was too stubborn to want Nato membership as they are fighting Russia anyway without it.

[Peregrine]

9 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

+1

 

as above Ukraine though will be wrecked first by aerial bombardment such that its hobbled for a generation.....the price has already been paid by Putin...... sanctions, international condemnation.......logic dictates that Russia's full objectives now need to be completed & Putin will swiftly move to aerial bombardment, decide on a level of destruction he deems appropriate......& then come to the negotiating table to participate in diplomacy theatre where each sanction lifted is traded for some Russian de-escalation (that they would have done anyway cause they have no intention of staying). Macron/Biden will eat up every hollow diplomatic 'victory' as a sign of their 'strength' and 'statesmanship',  cause they need it for their own domestic audiences but in reality they'll realize Putin is throwing them bones. He did what he wanted to do and nobody stood up to him.

 

If Putin is still rational, then he won't continue with this war any longer than he has to. Time is of the essence and he risks destroying the Russian economy if he prolongs this further. The West also has reasons to seek a negotiated peace ASAP.

[mcliu]

Russian demands:

https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-will-stop-moment-if-ukraine-meets-2022-03-07/

1) Neutrality

2) Crimea

3) Donetsk & Luhansk

 

Will Ukraine take the deal?

[changegonnacome]

Russian demands are consistent with their red lines communicated to NATO/EU/UN/USA immediately prior to the invasion & for the last decade. 

 

You have listed the demands well, by order of importance I would argue.

 

They have IMO already in many ways achieved objective No.1, yes better if it gets put in a constitution - but Ukraine is the hot stove that the child (NATO/EU/USA) will never touch again now that its been so badly burned.

 

Crimea/Donetsk/Luhansk........some power sharing, regional autonomy fudge can be created for these.

Edited March 7, 2022 by changegonnacome

[Spekulatius]

14 minutes ago, mcliu said:

Russian demands:

https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-will-stop-moment-if-ukraine-meets-2022-03-07/

1) Neutrality

2) Crimea

3) Donetsk & Luhansk

 

Will Ukraine take the deal?

You forgot that Putin demands unconditional surrender implicitly (lay down arms) while the Russians still attack. Ukrainians would be stupid to take this deal. Demilitarization also is a squishy term. It means that the Ukrainians need to hand over all the keys to the Russians.

 

There needs to be a mediated cease fire first with UN troop involvement most likely.

[Gregmal]

So the demands are much more rational and more or less consistent with what should have been respected to begin with than the media and twitterers have portrayed? I’m shocked!

[Gregmal]

Also thought this was utterly hilarious. Nevertheless they will still have some ratings when the next wave is published. 

 

 

[mcliu]

It sounds like the media narrative is starting to change.

 

I wonder how long before the a 10x rise energy prices dips Europe into a recession. Politicians must be doing their math, maybe pushing Ukraine for a deal, especially given the uncertain political situation in many EU countries.

 

I guess US is a beneficiary as manufacturing becomes more competitive vs Europe given the far lower energy prices.

Not surprisingly Europe is getting cold feet on more Russian sanctions while US pushes on.

5 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Also thought this was utterly hilarious. Nevertheless they will still have some ratings when the next wave is published. 

LOL that timing

Edited March 7, 2022 by mcliu

[Peregrine]

50 minutes ago, mcliu said:

Russian demands:

https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-will-stop-moment-if-ukraine-meets-2022-03-07/

1) Neutrality

2) Crimea

3) Donetsk & Luhansk

 

Will Ukraine take the deal?

 

Certainly a positive that they're no longer seeking the ouster of their leadership.

[sleepydragon]

1 hour ago, mcliu said:

Russian demands:

https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-will-stop-moment-if-ukraine-meets-2022-03-07/

1) Neutrality

2) Crimea

3) Donetsk & Luhansk

 

Will Ukraine take the deal?

Why would Ukraine take this deal given their city already damaged and every male is already pulled into war?  Yet, Putin has more to lose if this continues. 

 

[shhughes1116]

33 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

Why would Ukraine take this deal given their city already damaged and every male is already pulled into war?  Yet, Putin has more to lose if this continues. 

 

Agreed.

 

Amazing how many people in the West, sitting in their comfy chairs safe from indiscriminate rockets, believe that Ukraine should give up their ability to defend themselves and give up their rights as a sovereign nation, in response to an invading country that has a 100 year history of murdering Ukrainians.  

When your house is destroyed and your children have been murdered, there isn’t much left to live for.  Lot of people in Ukraine are in this situation right now.  Do you think they are going to lay down their arms and roll over for Russia?   Or do you think they are going to grab a bunch of javelins and molotovs and slaughter as many Russian soldiers as they possibly can?  I would go with the latter. 
 

And let’s talk about a practical problem for Putin.  The first Tank Guards Army, the elite military ground unit in the Russian army and based in the Western District of Russia, is getting mauled in Ukraine.  This happens to be the same unit that would lock down Moscow and the surrounding region if the populace attempted to overthrow the government.  Continuing to bleed his army dry in Ukraine will undermine his ability to stay in power if the Russian populace revolts.    

[shhughes1116]

Since the thread is about the endgame, I’ll offer my view.  At this point, I see almost no chance that Ukraine agrees to de-militarization and neutrality.   
 

With each day that passes, the Russian ability to wage war decreases, and the Ukrainian ability to wage war (and their resolve to do so) increases.  Each child that is murdered by indiscriminate rocket fire and artillery fire puts another parent on the battlefield that has nothing to lose in their quest to slaughter Russian soldiers.  
 

In the coming week, I think we will see more surrendering of Russian soldiers, more abandoned military equipment, and small areas where the Ukrainians push the Russians back.  I also think the Russians will intensify their bombing of civilian areas in an effort to kill civilians and force the Ukrainians to negotiate.

Medium-term, I think the Ukrainians push the Russians back to their borders, and turn the Donbas into a demilitarized wasteland, a la the Korean Peninsula.  If Poland hands over their 30 Mig29s, I think this happens faster.     
 

During all of this,  I think there is a greater than 50% chance that Russia bombs their own troops (or potentially a small town in russian) with a dirty bomb in order to justify further aggression against Ukraine.  

[changegonnacome]

52 minutes ago, shhughes1116 said:

Do you think they are going to lay down their arms and roll over for Russia?   Or do you think they are going to grab a bunch of javelins and molotovs and slaughter as many Russian soldiers as they possibly can?  I would go with the latter. 

 

The Russian’s & their missiles will mainly be in the air soon…..there won’t be any of them to kill on the ground in Kiev/insert Ukrainian city…..just a relentless barrage from above from things you can’t see and people you can’t shoot at. This is the Russian way. 

[SharperDingaan]

Bear in mind that the US/Poland exchange is really an open-ended revolving 'lend/lease' arrangement. US supplied Polish planes (of different types) over the Ukraine, flying out of Polish air bases, supported by US AWAC assistance. Predator drones continually looking for high-ranking 'targets of opportunity'.

 

Arms merchants need to demonstrate the efficacy of their weaponry, live targets are better, and it is very easy to make foreign pilots 'dual nationals'. Hot pursuits back into Polish airspace providing live targets for sophisticated friend/foe air defense systems.

 

Putin propaganda cant hide large numbers of crashing aircraft, or burnt bodies coming home in body bags, and it would appear that is now the intent. It also cant hide how the war has turned the 1945 Russian 'special hate' for Nazis... into todays very similar Ukrainian 'special hate' for Russian troops. Afghanistan repeating itself.  

 

SD

[Parsad]

5 hours ago, Gregmal said:

So the demands are much more rational and more or less consistent with what should have been respected to begin with than the media and twitterers have portrayed? I’m shocked!

 

You're actually going after the media when a dictator starts an unprovoked war against a country 1/10th its size militarily and 1/3rd its size in population?  I too said that Putin will win out of this through concessions, since the West can't get fully involved and Putin will need to save face.  But to go after the media and their "irrationality" is sorely misplaced!  Cheers!

[Gregmal]

Absolutely. 100% the media is scum of the earth. An enemy just like Putin except they effect more Americans than he does. If that isn’t evident even in the last few month with what’s come out of the Palin defamation case, Russia/Clinton fabrications, CNN problems, etc….don’t know what to tell you. 
 

What’s happening in Ukraine is tragic, but again another instance of the US meddling in foreign affairs and then just shrugging when their actions cause harm to others. 

[Parsad]

2 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Absolutely. 100% the media is scum of the earth. An enemy just like Putin except they effect more Americans than he does. If that isn’t evident even in the last few month with what’s come out of the Palin defamation case, Russia/Clinton fabrications, CNN problems, etc….don’t know what to tell you. 
 

What’s happening in Ukraine is tragic, but again another instance of the US meddling in foreign affairs and then just shrugging when their actions cause harm to others. 

 

So the liberal media was responsible for Putin attacking Ukraine?  Because as we know, "Putin is a great guy!"  Cheers!

[Parsad]

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-investor-bill-ackman-warns-181807581.html

 

Ackman comments on the war. 

 

I agree with him that China is the one who can end this thing right away.  Question is, will they?  The war is to the benefit of their future interests in Taiwan, but at the same time, the sanctions and economic issues could destabilize China itself.  

 

Cheers!

[Xerxes]

Folks. I submit to you that it is time for NATO members not to increase their defence budget but rather to decrease. 
 

clearly Russian capability to project power is not there, beyond bludgeoning through sheer dumb scale. 
 

I just hope NATO are not planning to bleed the Russian to the last Ukrainian. 

[Xerxes]

Ackman is yet another Westerner who just woke up and realized that the world is one big bad place. 
 

Forget about wars .. how many genocides we had in the past 30 years ? I can think of former Yugoslavia, Rwanda, Burma etc they were throwing babies in fire in Burma

 

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/theyre-throwing-babies-onto-fires-in-myanmar-we-need-to-recognize-genocide-is-occurring/wcm/37e88f89-0e4c-495d-aa09-99ff8c307032/amp/

 

now the latte-sipping crowd is getting concerned. 

[Gregmal]

I think Bill is right that China comes out of this looking very good. But otherwise, yea, he's got another short bet and sometime in the future gonna boast about turning another $100 into $2B or something. Thats all I am reading in his war cries. Like alright dude, we know how you do this. 

[Blugolds11]

45 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I think Bill is right that China comes out of this looking very good. But otherwise, yea, he's got another short bet and sometime in the future gonna boast about turning another $100 into $2B or something. Thats all I am reading in his war cries. Like alright dude, we know how you do this. 

 

Ackman was going for an Emmy with his crying on MSNBC with the pandemic...this seems a little reserved with is calls for WW# compared to the sobbing before...but yes...everyone has seen his playbook and Im sure his positions are in, now hes talking his book. 

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

Ackman is yet another Westerner who just woke up and realized that the world is one big bad place. 
 

Forget about wars .. how many genocides we had in the past 30 years ? I can think of former Yugoslavia, Rwanda, Burma etc they were throwing babies in fire in Burma

 

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/theyre-throwing-babies-onto-fires-in-myanmar-we-need-to-recognize-genocide-is-occurring/wcm/37e88f89-0e4c-495d-aa09-99ff8c307032/amp/

 

now the latte-sipping crowd is getting concerned. 

 

Xerxes, don't lie!  We all know you sip lattes like the rest of us!    Cheers!

[Xerxes]

LOL ... Yes, i do indeed like my lattes

in fact, i love coffee, that first sip in the morning kills me !  

 

Damn, i hope that does not mean that I am projecting myself and actually that it is me who up just woke and realized the world is one big ugly place. 

 

Seriously though, some of those scenes that you see, where black people (students or otherwise) trying to leave Ukraine, and they are being held back by Polish or Ukrainian police at the border really pisses me off. I dont see much coverage of that. Granted I dont have full context but I assume this is not the time to let or not let people to escape to safety based on the color of their skin. This crisis has really shown the best and the worse of us.

 

Edited March 8, 2022 by Xerxes

[Parsad]

40 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

LOL ... Yes, i do indeed like my lattes

in fact, i love coffee, that first sip in the morning kills me !  

 

Damn, i hope that does not mean that I am projecting myself and actually that it is me who up just woke and realized the world is one big ugly place. 

 

Seriously though, some of those scenes that you see, where black people (students or otherwise) trying to leave Ukraine, and they are being held back by Polish or Ukrainian police at the border really pisses me off. I dont see much coverage of that. Granted I dont have full context but I assume this is not the time to let or not let people to escape to safety based on the color of their skin. This crisis has really shown the best and the worse of us.

 

 

Isn't that first sip awesome!  I don't actually really drink lattes much...the occasional mocha or cappuccino.  I do blends of my favorite coffee grinds and then I do a pour over.  Not those fancy cone pour over things all the millennials use, but the same little strainer I've used for 20 years well before the millennial baristas started doing pour overs.  I use an unbleached filter, three pours with the first to bloom the grinds, and then suck that bad boy up!  Damn that's good coffee!

 

I saw a young orphaned Ukrainian boy, maybe 9-10 years old, carrying his little backpack and just crying painfully as he walked alone.  Gut punch as I thought about my own niece and nephew and what if they had to go through such agony.  I just don't understand how someone could do this without provocation...ridiculous!