Russia-Ukrainian War

[CassiusKing1]

4 hours ago, Castanza said:

If you want to know who committed a crime/act then look to see who benefits.

 

The Dude:
It's like what Lenin said... you look for the person who will benefit, and, uh, uh...

[boilermaker75]

For the Russian soldiers on the ground I am sure they feel this is all FUBAR.

Edited October 4, 2022 by boilermaker75

[crs223]

We are all guessing the unknowable, based on propaganda. Then trying to argue about who is the smartest.

 

What a waste of time.

[Gamecock-YT]

This thread sheds some light on why Putin might benefit from blowing up his pipeline:

 

 

[Spekulatius]

The 1420 vblogger (highly recommend to follow/subscribe) interviews random Russians in a rural town. Ouch:

 

Edited October 5, 2022 by Spekulatius

[formthirteen]

39 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The 1420 vblogger (highly recommend to follow/subscribe) interviews random Russians in a rural town. Ouch:

 

”Protect the motherland”. In a way they are right for the wrong reasons. The Czech have already annexed Kaliningrad

 

https://visitkralovec.cz/

Edited October 5, 2022 by formthirteen

[UK]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-new-offensive-is-fueled-by-captured-russian-weapons-11664965264

 

One Ukrainian battalion, the Carpathian Sich, seized 10 modern T-80 tanks and five 2S5 Giatsint 152-mm self-propelled howitzers after it entered the town of Izyum last month, said its deputy chief of staff, Ruslan Andriyko. “We’ve got so many trophies that we don’t even know what to do with them,” he said. “We started off as an infantry battalion, and now we are sort of becoming a mechanized battalion.” 0The chief of staff of a Ukrainian artillery battalion on the Kharkiv front said his unit now operates four recently captured Russian 2S19 Msta 152-mm self-propelled howitzers, alongside American-made guns, and now has abundant Soviet-caliber ammunition. “The Russians no longer have a firepower advantage. We smashed up all their artillery units before launching the offensive, and then we started to move ahead so fast that they didn’t even have time to fuel up and load their tanks,” said the officer. “They just fled and left everything behind.”

 

Combined with weapons taken during Russia’s retreat from Kyiv and other parts of northern Ukraine in April, these recent gains have turned Moscow into by far the largest supplier of heavy weapons for Ukraine, well ahead of the U.S. or other allies in sheer numbers, according to open-source intelligence analysts. Western-provided weapons, though, are usually more advanced and precise. Ukraine has captured 460 Russian main battle tanks, 92 self-propelled howitzers, 448 infantry fighting vehicles, 195 armored fighting vehicles and 44 multiple-launch rocket systems, according to visual evidence compiled from social media and news reports from Oryx, an open-source intelligence consulting firm. The real number is likely higher as not every captured piece of equipment gets filmed.

Edited October 6, 2022 by UK

[Castanza]

https://youtu.be/nbt-CsSRJl8?t=6900

 

Bloomberg scrambling after the dude states simple logical conclusions 

 

To the US this war is about regime change. We will cut of the heads of any snakes we find and seize opportunities. Destroying a 20b asset of Russia's while also brining EU further under our wing is a no-brainer.

 

@UK Ukraine seems to be going into overdrive prior to winter.  

[Xerxes]

Jeffrey Saches will no longer be invited to Bloomberg.

Next time professor, stick to the narrative !

 

[Spekulatius]

It’s becoming more and more clear that the Kherson pocket is a trap for the Russians. Supposedly, there are 15-20k Russian soldiers north of the Dnipro river and they don’t really have a way to get out, since the bridges are blasted up.

This may take a few weeks, but I think the Russians will lose a lot of material and troops there that they cannot replace. Bloody recruits that do not want to fight  can’t make up for the losses.

 

I also don’t think the war activity will stop in winter. The Russians are not equipped for winter, they don’t even have the uniforms apparently. All the new recruits will need a lot of supplies are there will be huge problems. It’s ironical because the Russians army used to have general winter as their friend, but this time, it’s looking more and more like the opposite. I bet the Ukrainians have the means to keep fighting in winter and it may turn out to be a huge advantage for them.

[Xerxes]

General “mud” might be coming before General “February”

[Xerxes]

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-installed-ukraine-official-pours-scorn-putins-generals-defence-minister-2022-10-06/
 

The defence minister should consider this, given the true state of his portfolio of responsibility. He has become Ukraine’ biggest weapon supplier !

[Xerxes]

Just now … “Blast damages only bridge linking Russia and Crimea“

 

“Crimea, the bridge, the beginning”

 

Sleep walking to Armageddon are we … 

[John Hjorth]

@Xerxes,

 

Just another observation point in what's going on, where pretty much everyone is held in the dark with regard to the overall picture of the conflict, its recent status and stage, and expected development going forward.

[Spekulatius]

The bridge from Kerch to Crimea needed to go, so that’s great news, and it looks like it’s mostly gone. It may need another strike to totally severe  and make it unusable.

We can see now the broad strokes of a giant encirclement. First the 15-20k army group north of Dnipro is pinned down and probably get’s destroyed. Then I think Ukraine can attack and cut off the land bridge to Crimea and whatever is there going to be sealed off as well.

 

Frigging Putin can end this - take the balls and go home. Claim it all was the plan to begin with and Ukraine is de-nazified successfully. Apply doublethink playbook. Blame whatever failure there is on his army generals and throw them out of the window or sent them to Siberia. It has been done before and that’s how I see the war ending.

[Viking]

The Ukraine war has been a disaster for Russia. The longer it goes on the weaker Russia becomes. The weaker Russia becomes the less influence it has in the former Soviet sphere. China is licking its chops. Ukraine, with its success dramatically weakening Russia’s military, is now helping China grow its influence. (Makes one wonder why China is not sending Ukraine weapons :-) As this becomes more obvious, got to wonder when  Russian’s wake up to the reality of what is going on.
 

Putin invaded Ukraine to re-establish Russia’s former empire/influence/glory. It is becoming more and more clear he is achieving the opposite: Russia’s standing in its former empire is deteriorating badly. The decline in its influence is accelerating. And glory has been replaced with defeat and shame. I am starting to wonder how long the war can continue along its current trajectory…
—————

A Distracted Russia Is Losing Its Grip on Its Old Soviet Sphere

- https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/08/world/asia/russia-putin-soviet.html
 

Russia’s domination of Central Asia and the Caucasus region is unraveling as the Kremlin focuses on the war in Ukraine — and border violence is flaring.

 

… “Until Ukraine, China and Russia were not interested in open competition in Central Asia,” said Asel Doolotkeldieva, a senior lecturer at the OSCE Academy in Bishkek, a center for postgraduate studies focused on security issues. “There was a tacit division of labor: security for Russia, economics for China. But Russia is not doing its job anymore. It has shown that it is unable, or unwilling, to protect the region.”

 

….. “Putin is no longer the great invincible leader that everyone wants to meet,” said Emil Dzhuraev, a researcher in Bishkek with Crossroads Central Asia, a research group. “He has lost his aura.”

 

By contrast, Mr. Xi has become more assertive. On a visit to Kazakhstan last month, he pledged to “resolutely support Kazakhstan in the defense of its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity,” a remark widely interpreted as a warning to Moscow not to try anything.”

Edited October 8, 2022 by Viking

[Viking]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

The bridge from Kerch to Crimea needed to go, so that’s great news, and it looks like it’s mostly gone. It may need another strike to totally severe  and make it unusable.

We can see now the broad strokes of a giant encirclement. First the 15-20k army group north of Dnipro is pinned down and probably get’s destroyed. Then I think Ukraine can attack and cut off the land bridge to Crimea and whatever is there going to be sealed off as well.

 

Frigging Putin can end this - take the balls and go home. Claim it all was the plan to begin with and Ukraine is de-nazified successfully. Apply doublethink playbook. Blame whatever failure there is on his army generals and throw them out of the window or sent them to Siberia. It has been done before and that’s how I see the war ending.

It looks like Russia will view this as an escalation of the war by Ukraine. In this game of chess, what will be Putin’s next move?

—————

Impact of Kerch bridge blast will be felt all the way to the Kremlin

- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/08/impact-of-kerch-bridge-blast-will-be-felt-all-the-way-to-the-kremli

 

…..When the Russian president opened its road span on 15 May 2018, driving an orange Kamaz truck across the bridge, he boasted of its significance.

 

“In different historical epochs, even under the tsar priests, people dreamed of building this bridge. Then they returned to this [idea] in the 1930s, the 40s, the 50s. And finally, thanks to your work and your talent, the miracle has happened.”

 

… How Moscow responds is the big question, but one that had been looming ever more powerfully as Ukraine has successfully pressed its counteroffensive in recent weeks amid mounting disquiet among Russian elites and commentators over the conduct of Putin’s war.

 

In April, Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president and prime minister, and currently deputy chair of the Security Council of Russia, said: “One of the Ukrainian generals talked about the need to strike at the Crimean Bridge. I hope he understands what the retaliatory target will be.”

 

At the very least it is a huge propaganda victory for Kyiv that will be held up as a sign that not only is it unafraid of Putin’s nuclear threats but that it believes it is winning the war.

Edited October 8, 2022 by Viking

[LC]

Just wondering what parallels anyone sees between this war and America’s 20? Year war in the Middle East (Afghanistan, Iraq).

 

iirc the US military had a lot of trouble early on in Afghanistan, but look how long troops stayed there…

[Spekulatius]

48 minutes ago, LC said:

Just wondering what parallels anyone sees between this war and America’s 20? Year war in the Middle East (Afghanistan, Iraq).

 

iirc the US military had a lot of trouble early on in Afghanistan, but look how long troops stayed there…

Afghanistan was an insurgency . In Iraq, the US won the war, but can’t win the insurgency

 

Insurgencies are like weed in a yard, you can control it, but you can never “win”. Once you stop working in your yard, the weed comes back.

 

Afganistan wasn’t out even our yard, so we got the hell out there in a way that didn’t look good to put it mildly. Ukraine - Russia is a conventional war. There is a front line. Two armies are fighting each other. Afghanistan and Ukraine are very different conflicts and have little to do with each other. To get back to a similar similar situation with the US involved, you have to go back to Korea in the 50’s. The US has not lost a conventional war for a long time.

Edited October 8, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

44 minutes ago, LC said:

Just wondering what parallels anyone sees between this war and America’s 20? Year war in the Middle East (Afghanistan, Iraq).

 

iirc the US military had a lot of trouble early on in Afghanistan, but look how long troops stayed there…

just to add t Spek’ comment

 

In the Soviet involvement in Afghanistan, U.S. involvement in Afghanistan and U.S. involvement in Iraq —- in all three conflicts the assailants captured the country (i.e critical infrastructure) within months. In case of Afghanistan and the Soviet it was in matter of weeks IIRC. 
 

Yet in all three they lost the long game. 
 

In case of Ukraine/Russia in 2022, that first phase has not even been completed. 

Edited October 8, 2022 by Xerxes

[changegonnacome]

7 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Sleep walking to Armageddon are we … 

 

Exactly........what does it look like to 'win' against Putin..........I mean the narrative in the press is to win, to beat Putin on his doorstep no less, humiliate him.........is it a good idea to corner a rat who has nuclear bombs? Guess we'll find out...........I mean what would it look like to win the battle in Ukraine, but loose the planet via nuclear conflict.......where are the god damn off ramps here people!!......ones that respect the reality that the country your trying to beat, holds the worlds destruction at its fingertips.......as folks cheer on Ukraine's advancement to Russian borders with NATO weapons in hand I'm not so sure we should be feeling so joyous.

 

An existential threat to a nuclear superpower is the final chapter in the bad version all our life stories.

 

[Dinar]

7 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Exactly........what does it look like to 'win' against Putin..........I mean the narrative in the press is to win, to beat Putin on his doorstep no less, humiliate him.........is it a good idea to corner a rat who has nuclear bombs? Guess we'll find out...........I mean what would it look like to win the battle in Ukraine, but loose the planet via nuclear conflict.......where are the god damn off ramps here people!!......ones that respect the reality that the country your trying to beat, holds the worlds destruction at its fingertips.......as folks cheer on Ukraine's advancement to Russian borders with NATO weapons in hand I'm not so sure we should be feeling so joyous.

 

An existential threat to a nuclear superpower is the final chapter in the bad version all our life stories.

 

I agree, the top priority for the West should be to find a way for Putin to save face and end this war as soon as possible.

[patience_and_focus]

7 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

 

An existential threat to a nuclear superpower is the final chapter in the bad version all our life stories.

 

Existential, really!? Because Ukraine army wants to erase Russian identity and is marching across border into St Petersburg?

 

If Putin uses nuclear weapons, then surely there will be existential threat to current Russian regime. 

[Viking]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

just to add t Spek’ comment

 

In the Soviet involvement in Afghanistan, U.S. involvement in Afghanistan and U.S. involvement in Iraq —- in all three conflicts the assailants captured the country (i.e critical infrastructure) within months. In case of Afghanistan and the Soviet it was in matter of weeks IIRC. 
 

Yet in all three they lost the long game. 
 

In case of Ukraine/Russia in 2022, that first phase has not even been completed. 

Ukraine is fighting being invaded by a foreign aggressor, Russia. The West is supporting the local population. The lesson from Afghanistan is the local population, if motivated and well armed, is eventually able to push the aggressor out. And that is what we are seeing play out in Ukraine (just much quicker than anyone thought).

Edited October 8, 2022 by Viking

[Viking]

23 minutes ago, Dinar said:

I agree, the top priority for the West should be to find a way for Putin to save face and end this war as soon as possible.

How do you negotiate with someone who doesn’t want to negotiate? Just imagine if Churchill had decided the best course of action was to negotiate with Hitler (and sue for peace)? Yes, the war would have been over much earlier. And the world would look very different today, especially in Europe. Looking with hindsight, i think Churchill made the right decision.