Blake Hampton Posted March 24 Posted March 24 4 minutes ago, Parsad said: I'm trying to relate to you that macro-based, defensive portfolio management is not what you are doing if you will not buy cheap assets when they are available. I completely agree. It'll likely end poorly for those betting on the long-term value of a dollar. That's why I don't buy bonds.
Viking Posted March 24 Posted March 24 3 hours ago, Parsad said: I'm all about simplifying the analytical process. Overthinking human psychology or market behavior often leads to affirmation of a set of beliefs or analysis paralysis...see Blake! I buy when I see things getting cheaper to intrinsic value...it's as simple as that. I have no idea what Trump or Iran will do...nor do I care other than for personal/ethical reasons. If things get worse, I sell more expensive stocks to buy even cheaper stocks. Works like a charm for over 25 years now, through the tech bubble, GFC, Pandemic and probably this so-called AI bubble and Iran War. I will rarely get the bottom and will probably sell well before the top...that's ok. I cover that middle ground very nicely like a mid-fielder...Trump and Iran will never come into the equation...their actions just gave me the opportunity! Cheers! +1. One of the things I love about investing is there is no one right way. The key is to find a framework that fits your intellect, psychological makeup and personal situation. You clearly have. Well done!
Viking Posted March 24 Posted March 24 I always enjoy listening to Doomberg. Very rational. Very unconventional. He has no idea how the war in the middle east is going to play out. (That makes me feel better.) I think he thinks financial markets are asleep at the wheel…
dealraker Posted March 24 Posted March 24 6 hours ago, Blake Hampton said: I completely agree. It'll likely end poorly for those betting on the long-term value of a dollar. That's why I don't buy bonds. Blake, here below is my actually "real" thinking, a guy who has watched the current pres for 50 years coming away astounded at his "business" sense. LOL, I'm 95% invested in "stuff" and have been at that percentage to near 100% since my mom and dad died now some 55 years ago leaving me a little trust fund. Blake you really need to add to your list the absolute fact that Donnie J is financially illiterate, that he will do - as he always does - as much harm to you as he possibly can. That's because he thinks in zero sum ways, that he must gain while others must lose. The man is a walking fucking idiot as to anything financial. He cheats, scams, manipulates, intimidates, basically he runs a side show of corruption parading himself around - the deserter he was - as a true patriot. Trump's "work" on our budget deficit will be legendary, count on it. We have given him far-far-far more power than anyone ever in history. The worst of it will be his financial side, I am amazed that so many even here on COBF are not more fearful of the harm this man will do. But I am 95% invested with the above thinking that "hell gunna come" and dumb shit Trump gunna lead the show. I'd rather be in a good business than in any of the other shit available. People obsess over daily prices, I obsess over not being left out of the good stuff, that be the good business that the other guys owns that I want to own. The years have made me envious of the good businesses. Ole dealraker thinks you too should be envious of those in the good businesses, that this is where the "safety" is. And safety from dumb ass Donnie is of upmost importance!
John Hjorth Posted March 24 Posted March 24 3 minutes ago, dealraker said: ... The man is a walking fucking idiot as to anything financial. ... HaHa! - I'm btw. on the way out of the door with the Lady of House to vote to the Danish Parliamentary election today, and my thoughts in the last few days have circling been circling around who is to the least degree an indiot of those I can vote for!
dealraker Posted March 24 Posted March 24 (edited) 46 minutes ago, John Hjorth said: HaHa! - I'm btw. on the way out of the door with the Lady of House to vote to the Danish Parliamentary election today, and my thoughts in the last few days have circling been circling around who is to the least degree an indiot of those I can vote for! I'll give the young man an example, given the ole Berk has linked up to it a bit now. Way back in Outstanding Investor Digest days, that the early 1990's I read there about Tokio Marine and Fire. Can't remember exactly who brought it up but the valuation seemed ok and this was the era of "discovery" for me of the Berkshire, Fairfax, Markel, Tokio Marine, White Mountains...etc type business. Yes I'd owned both Berkshire and Markel for some time...by this time. But I didn't know crap about them, a bare minimum of their business models. But on OID I could read in quick layman's terms how these businesses worked and of course I set out in discovery of more stocks to buy. I didn't have much $ to buy stocks, but I did buy anyway. Fees from the buys were crazy high, but while this was true the fees also prevented thoughts of selling because selling of course was equally expensive. But anyway, I've been accumulating this thing call Tokio Marine for 35 years or so. The return? I have no clue, but I bet it is far and way better than fearful short term treasuries, yes multiples of return better. I've brought up Tokio here on COBF, no one replies so I guess it isn't considered anything great. But to me it is yet another good business to own over time. And Blake has a whopping lot of time, decades of it. I'm so envious. His options are endless with near guaranteed success even with financial disasters like Trump running the show. The endless praise of Donnie? So if I'd done as well as Donnie what would my net worth be today? My $47,000 inheritance, and Donnie was inheriting when I did, would likely be about 3 or 4 hundred thousand, and that given his crypto and other escapades of today. That my friends is so pathetic it should make us all want to vomit each time he mentions anything about finance. Instead of good businesses Trump has spent decades intimidating little tax departments and filing nearly 4,000 lawsuits, some 390 or so are active today. All of us can do the Donnie J side show of idiocy, the game of trying to destroy others while not thinking at all about what he wanted to do in business that is legitimate and near certain to make you financially sound over time. Think about the successful real estate people in NY who read Donnie claims of wild success, they laugh their asses off when doing this. Ole deal is on a roll this morning. No one should actually take me too seriously...that is except that if you want to invest with a 100% chance of not failing? Well just own good business. Good businesses all around. And good thinking here on COBF about them. Own business Blake! Edited March 24 by dealraker
73 Reds Posted March 24 Posted March 24 8 hours ago, Blake Hampton said: I completely agree. It'll likely end poorly for those betting on the long-term value of a dollar. That's why I don't buy bonds. Blake, consider the folks here, the amount of time they've been investing and the advice they are giving you. They've seen a lot more in the way of disruption than you have and their conclusions are to invest in great, durable businesses and largely ignore most macro events. It doesn't get any more direct and simple than that. You can accept their advice or ignore it. Many of them are in financial/net worth brackets that you undoubtedly hope to be. BTW, like many young investors, I had to retrain my mind and rid it of many investing preconceptions early on, among them worrying about macro stuff.
Gregmal Posted March 24 Posted March 24 So much benevolent wisdom has been gifted to Blake and yet Blake always knows better. We ve had waves of these kind of irrational, wobbly, smart sounding but stupid in the real world fits over the many years I’ve been investing and been here. Such as; -Stocks are dangerous because they’re volatile(no, they’re not if you’re investing) -past returns are impossible to be exceeded by future ones, and then when they are we retrofit why it was obvious that then and now this again won’t be the case going forward, rinse and repeat -stocks are a bad inflation hedge because they can move around day to day and if you make all sorts of cherry picked and subjective adjustments to some figures, and then eliminate the good performing stocks, you would have been better in fixed income, but only if you make similarly subjective cuts and dashes to the types of fixed income and then book end the timeline and sprinkle in some day trading in between -hedging with shorts and cash is prudent even though the supposed best short sellers ever didn’t produce positive long term returns(but did get rich charging fees, aka Chanos) -all you have to do to make money in the market is follow the Fed even though no one knows what the future holds -following (insert big name) into investments and being patient will lead to riches even though investment objectives and time horizons vary vastly(cough OXY) -better to panic first, if you’re lucky you might avoid a couple months of volatility -simply staying the course, despite almost irrefutable proof that it’s the way to go, should be shunned in favor of “timing” the market, “on occasion”. (Repeat that occasion 3x a year!) -debt and leverage is the devil Bobby Boucher! Ignore that every successful investor in the history of investing has used or does use leverage I could go on and on but it’s a waste because collectively, what do we know? No one knows anything, right?
73 Reds Posted March 24 Posted March 24 4 minutes ago, Gregmal said: So much benevolent wisdom has been gifted to Blake and yet Blake always knows better. We ve had waves of these kind of irrational, wobbly, smart sounding but stupid in the real world fits over the many years I’ve been investing and been here. Such as; -Stocks are dangerous because they’re volatile(no, they’re not if you’re investing) -past returns are impossible to be exceeded by future ones, and then when they are we retrofit why it was obvious that then and now this again won’t be the case going forward, rinse and repeat -stocks are a bad inflation hedge because they can move around day to day and if you make all sorts of cherry picked and subjective adjustments to some figures, and then eliminate the good performing stocks, you would have been better in fixed income, but only if you make similarly subjective cuts and dashes to the types of fixed income and then book end the timeline and sprinkle in some day trading in between -hedging with shorts and cash is prudent even though the supposed best short sellers ever didn’t produce positive long term returns(but did get rich charging fees, aka Chanos) -all you have to do to make money in the market is follow the Fed even though no one knows what the future holds -following (insert big name) into investments and being patient will lead to riches even though investment objectives and time horizons vary vastly(cough OXY) -better to panic first, if you’re lucky you might avoid a couple months of volatility -simply staying the course, despite almost irrefutable proof that it’s the way to go, should be shunned in favor of “timing” the market, “on occasion”. (Repeat that occasion 3x a year!) -debt and leverage is the devil Bobby Boucher! Ignore that every successful investor in the history of investing has used or does use leverage I could go on and on but it’s a waste because collectively, what do we know? No one knows anything, right? The irony is, eventually he will probably be proven right. The problem is, there is also a steep price to be paid so who wants to be "right"?
Gregmal Posted March 24 Posted March 24 (edited) 6 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: The irony is, eventually he will probably be proven right. The problem is, there is also a steep price to be paid so who wants to be "right"? The worst thing in the world for an investor is to be proven right on some goofy macro prediction, early on at least. Look at all the guys from The Big Short. Look at Prem(for the following decade). Burry is selling newsletters. Einhorns 2% short position in LEH that made him famous(while being simultaneously invested in a mortgage lender that went bust) cost him for the next 15 years. It’s like those friends we ve all had who hit huge on their first couple trips to the casino. They think they’re special and then learn the hard way. It’s really not hard, put your fucking head down, find some businesses you like and understand, and then start participating in the joys of ownership. The younger you are the less valuations even matter. Edited March 24 by Gregmal
Malmqky Posted March 24 Posted March 24 @Blake Hampton Why do you not invest in Berkshire or Fairfax or JPM, considering you seem to respect Buffett, Prem, and Dimon (not to mention the Berkshire/FFH equity portfolios include OXY)? Or why don't you follow Buffett's advice: "My regular recommendation has been a low-cost S&P 500 index fund." Unless you think he's changed his mind since 2017, etc? Or think his advice doesn't apply to your situation? Serious questions and not gotchas, as I know you've considered both these options, but for some reason have chosen to invest differently. Thanks.
dwy000 Posted March 24 Posted March 24 37 minutes ago, Gregmal said: The worst thing in the world for an investor is to be proven right on some goofy macro prediction, early on at least. Look at all the guys from The Big Short. Look at Prem(for the following decade). Burry is selling newsletters. Einhorns 2% short position in LEH that made him famous(while being simultaneously invested in a mortgage lender that went bust) cost him for the next 15 years. It’s like those friends we ve all had who hit huge on their first couple trips to the casino. They think they’re special and then learn the hard way. It’s really not hard, put your fucking head down, find some businesses you like and understand, and then start participating in the joys of ownership. The younger you are the less valuations even matter. Look what you've done @Blake Hampton. Im actually in full agreement with Greg and Reds on something. Maybe the world IS coming to an end.
Parsad Posted March 24 Posted March 24 Senior US official has now reached out to Iranians. TACO'ed! Let's see what type of deal the U.S. gets here now. At least all the bullshit is over and we can go back to some sense of normality as oil prices drop and market stability returns. Cheers!
John Hjorth Posted March 24 Posted March 24 37 minutes ago, Gregmal said: ... Burry is selling newsletters. ... Not much worse that being a lawyer, [ -and no, auditors are very, very much different! ]
Parsad Posted March 24 Posted March 24 51 minutes ago, Gregmal said: So much benevolent wisdom has been gifted to Blake and yet Blake always knows better. We ve had waves of these kind of irrational, wobbly, smart sounding but stupid in the real world fits over the many years I’ve been investing and been here. Such as; -Stocks are dangerous because they’re volatile(no, they’re not if you’re investing) -past returns are impossible to be exceeded by future ones, and then when they are we retrofit why it was obvious that then and now this again won’t be the case going forward, rinse and repeat -stocks are a bad inflation hedge because they can move around day to day and if you make all sorts of cherry picked and subjective adjustments to some figures, and then eliminate the good performing stocks, you would have been better in fixed income, but only if you make similarly subjective cuts and dashes to the types of fixed income and then book end the timeline and sprinkle in some day trading in between -hedging with shorts and cash is prudent even though the supposed best short sellers ever didn’t produce positive long term returns(but did get rich charging fees, aka Chanos) -all you have to do to make money in the market is follow the Fed even though no one knows what the future holds -following (insert big name) into investments and being patient will lead to riches even though investment objectives and time horizons vary vastly(cough OXY) -better to panic first, if you’re lucky you might avoid a couple months of volatility -simply staying the course, despite almost irrefutable proof that it’s the way to go, should be shunned in favor of “timing” the market, “on occasion”. (Repeat that occasion 3x a year!) -debt and leverage is the devil Bobby Boucher! Ignore that every successful investor in the history of investing has used or does use leverage I could go on and on but it’s a waste because collectively, what do we know? No one knows anything, right? We all learn over time...especially when we are young...Blake is no different. You wish young people would take advice and at least reexamine their long-term position, but we all know we are stubborn as hell when we are young. I first heard about Buffett from my 14 year old best friend who somehow chose to read the original Money Masters. I had no clue who Buffett was, nor did I care. Fast forward almost another 15 years, and then I finally paid attention after hearing his name again, and then realized I heard about this man when I was in high school, but was foolish enough not to care! What a fucking waste of 15 years. I had a paper route, I worked at McDonalds, I received a small allowance for house chores, I used to do whatever I could to scrape up odd jobs and money elsewhere. I had a nice savings account and some government bonds. Those 15 years of compounding would have demolished any economic crisis event where the stock market fell! But nope, didn't buy my first Berkshire "B" share till early 1999 when I was 29 years old! I bought shit before that like Rain Forest Cafe...what a bust! Buy what you know...fucking Peter Lynch! I hope the younger people we speak to on here will listen, heed some advice...but I don't expect it, because I was too smart for my own good back then as well! Cheers!
cubsfan Posted March 24 Posted March 24 12 minutes ago, Parsad said: We all learn over time...especially when we are young...Blake is no different. You wish young people would take advice and at least reexamine their long-term position, but we all know we are stubborn as hell when we are young. I first heard about Buffett from my 14 year old best friend who somehow chose to read the original Money Masters. I had no clue who Buffett was, nor did I care. Fast forward almost another 15 years, and then I finally paid attention after hearing his name again, and then realized I heard about this man when I was in high school, but was foolish enough not to care! What a fucking waste of 15 years. I had a paper route, I worked at McDonalds, I received a small allowance for house chores, I used to do whatever I could to scrape up odd jobs and money elsewhere. I had a nice savings account and some government bonds. Those 15 years of compounding would have demolished any economic crisis event where the stock market fell! But nope, didn't buy my first Berkshire "B" share till early 1999 when I was 29 years old! I bought shit before that like Rain Forest Cafe...what a bust! Buy what you know...fucking Peter Lynch! I hope the younger people we speak to on here will listen, heed some advice...but I don't expect it, because I was too smart for my own good back then as well! Cheers! Indeed - a great story of the youth. You could have written that for me, I was far denser than you....time wasted due to thinking you know it all. Blake is a very smart young man, and I'm pretty sure he will learn something here. He fits in well.
Hoodlum Posted March 24 Posted March 24 24 minutes ago, Parsad said: Senior US official has now reached out to Iranians. TACO'ed! Let's see what type of deal the U.S. gets here now. At least all the bullshit is over and we can go back to some sense of normality as oil prices drop and market stability returns. Cheers! it will be interesting to see what the mid-term impact will be for oil and natural gas production, once the conflict ends. This conflict seems to have had a more material impact on middle east production than prior conflicts.
rogermunibond Posted March 24 Posted March 24 https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/23/mattis-ending-iran-war-now-cede-hormuz-00841109
Malmqky Posted March 24 Posted March 24 https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-us-israel-news-updates-2026/card/pentagon-to-order-3-000-82nd-airborne-soldiers-to-middle-east-3H7VxKvxkaorsOLcRt5g?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqcOTLXUkOpxKdInewN1SgM6KlgyLih6RJBpgYtIaKNF4aHZnvJd4AEZjINbWlI%3D&gaa_ts=69c2cef1&gaa_sig=34cuzPc86CG7nLN0AdHhaqtjXvG7G-V8ilD-1ZkiUDtMHGMQMG4N-gJk92D-fs69UH8fVL5BuEuHjaJGwyn2Rw%3D%3D
Xerxes Posted March 24 Posted March 24 2 hours ago, Parsad said: Senior US official has now reached out to Iranians. TACO'ed! Let's see what type of deal the U.S. gets here now. At least all the bullshit is over and we can go back to some sense of normality as oil prices drop and market stability returns. Cheers! The equilibrium has been overturned, the genie is out of the bottle. There is no going back. Let’s assess impact twelve months from now. In the short term any one person can extrapolate a prevailing snapshot. We just don’t know lot of things.
SharperDingaan Posted March 24 Posted March 24 (edited) 10 hours ago, dealraker said: Blake, here below is my actually "real" thinking, a guy who has watched the current pres for 50 years coming away astounded at his "business" sense. LOL, I'm 95% invested in "stuff" and have been at that percentage to near 100% since my mom and dad died now some 55 years ago leaving me a little trust fund. Blake you really need to add to your list the absolute fact that Donnie J is financially illiterate, that he will do - as he always does - as much harm to you as he possibly can. That's because he thinks in zero sum ways, that he must gain while others must lose. The man is a walking fucking idiot as to anything financial. He cheats, scams, manipulates, intimidates, basically he runs a side show of corruption parading himself around - the deserter he was - as a true patriot. Trump's "work" on our budget deficit will be legendary, count on it. We have given him far-far-far more power than anyone ever in history. The worst of it will be his financial side, I am amazed that so many even here on COBF are not more fearful of the harm this man will do. But I am 95% invested with the above thinking that "hell gunna come" and dumb shit Trump gunna lead the show. I'd rather be in a good business than in any of the other shit available. People obsess over daily prices, I obsess over not being left out of the good stuff, that be the good business that the other guys owns that I want to own. The years have made me envious of the good businesses. Ole dealraker thinks you too should be envious of those in the good businesses, that this is where the "safety" is. And safety from dumb ass Donnie is of upmost importance! Keep repeating ... " I need a long straddle on Orange Boy, I need a long straddle on Orange Boy ... quick!; before some idiot takes him out too early ". But miss the opportunity .... and Orange Boy will piss on your grave, for the rest of your days. SD Edited March 24 by SharperDingaan
Blake Hampton Posted March 24 Posted March 24 I do appreciate the feedback and wisdom. I recognize there are indeed many smart people here. I still disagree with some of you on various things, but the belief that buying businesses is generally the best place for an individual to put money is not one of them.
DooDiligence Posted March 24 Posted March 24 I smell a bankruptcy filing. https://archive.is/9Gtaw https://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/06/donald-trump-on-us-debt.html
Parsad Posted March 24 Posted March 24 These people are truly evil...evil, evil people...running crooked elections with mail in ballots. We're the only country in the world that uses mail in ballots...evil, crooked people! DOH!! https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/24/politics/trump-votes-by-mail-in-ballot-in-florida-special-election-as-he-tries-to-sharply-limit-absentee-voting Yeah Cubs...best President in history. More like the most hypocritical President in history! Cheers!
DooDiligence Posted March 24 Posted March 24 1 hour ago, Parsad said: These people are truly evil...evil, evil people...running crooked elections with mail in ballots. We're the only country in the world that uses mail in ballots...evil, crooked people! DOH!! https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/24/politics/trump-votes-by-mail-in-ballot-in-florida-special-election-as-he-tries-to-sharply-limit-absentee-voting Yeah Cubs...best President in history. More like the most hypocritical President in history! Cheers! You forgot, stupidest individual to ever occupy the office. Big last minute bets on ME bombings and doubling down on dinosaurs. Can't expect much more from a guy who bankrupted a casino. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-do-china-and-america-think-about-the-energy-transition/
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