Political Posts

[dealraker]

18 minutes ago, dealraker said:

For 15 years you've termed anyone or any view opposed to yours as liberal gotcha which you and everyone else on this forum knows is an eye roller.  Are you emulating Trump to see how far you can take words into the abyss and get away with it?   You been introduced to Rand yet?

 

Speaking for John (of course)!  

 

 

 

So for those who take things too seriously it may help to know that when I saw what Greg had written, when I typed the above...I was laughing so hard to nearly pee in my pants both as to Greg's post and my response.  The subtext/satire/actual meaning often ain't what it seems in print!

[Gregmal]

17 minutes ago, dealraker said:

For 15 years you've termed anyone or any view opposed to yours as liberal gotcha which you and everyone else on this forum knows is an eye roller.  Are you emulating Trump to see how far you can take words into the abyss and get away with it?   You been introduced to Rand yet?

 

Speaking for John (of course)!  

 

 

 

For John's sake(of course), I am just trying to find the consistency. If the "obvious Trump move" was to TACO and rollout, claiming a quick win, should the commentary on a ground attack even matter if its not "well I clearly was mistaken"?

 

Just the same as, if the commentary was "Trump will never bomb Iran, he'll TACO and they dont even have weapons", is it appropriate to do anything but laugh when immediately after they get bombed, those same narratives arent..."welp we were off in left field" but miraculously "they didnt even do any damage to the weapons" and "Israel played Trump"? John definitely needs to know!

[cubsfan]

25 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Recall Iran round one it went like this:

 

-Trump will TACO, hes lying about being serious about bombing them. TACO!

-Iran doesnt even have weapons

 

Trump bombs Iran

-they didn't even get the weapons, only minor damage! YES! We got him!(based on high level intel from.....oh yea, when you have TDS you just instantly know these things with certainty!)

 

 

 

Got it all wrong Greg.  The war is lost, Iran is kicking ass.  Worse yet - the Chinese and Russians are coming to the rescue.

 

Trump is finished!!!

[Gregmal]

Just now, dealraker said:

So for those who take things too seriously it may help to know that when I saw what Greg had written, when I typed the above...I was laughing so hard to nearly pee in my pants both as to Greg's post and my response.  The subtext/satire/actual meaning often ain't what it seems in print!

Same LOL. Morning mental exercise....I think youre viewed very favorably, so you probably dont have to contend with the same number of angry anons rushing in to pick fights, but generally speaking, theres an underlying satire to it all amongst the familiars...

[John Hjorth]

36 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

John, that's one of the funniest posts I've ever read ("wifey behaves like a solar eclipse").  Can't stop laughing - thanks for making my morning after some rough dental work!

 

HaHa! 

 

In a relationship with another human being, there are always ups and downs. I have been in the dog house a bit lately, trying to work on it, to make it up.

 

I screwed up dearly at Valentines day. 

 

I never stray from her, ever! I've taught her never to drag our disagreements into the bedroom. It's a demilitarizied zone! No discussion there! Never let the sun go down on your wrath! Only good times and rest, sleep in the bedroom!

 

No matter what, I always sleep next to her at my spot in the bed. She always know where I am, ETA home again said while leaving, if deviations from expectations, I call or text her.

 

Her deceased only hubby ever and father to her two kids [adults today] failed her in some respects. In the early years in our relationship I could clearly feel she had challenges ever to trust a man again, so I had actively to work on gaining it, and now, it's just a habit.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Rough dental work can really be a downer, but it normally gets better i a few days!

Edited March 20 by John Hjorth

[Sweet]

59 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I'm curious about the following theoretical;

 

If the US puts boots on the ground, what narrative gets abandoned? That Trump was certain to quickly and sloppily pull out and declare a big win and move on? Or do we re-engage the "forever war" and "Trump tricked by Israel" one? 

 

It's clever because it seems that no matter what scenario unfolds, there s an angry liberal gotcha just waiting for it! 

 It’s fairly clear, to me at least, that he underestimated what it would take to win strategically and that troops will be required to finish the deal.

 

But yeh, the complaining will just shift to something else.

[rogermunibond]

Bob Brackett from Bernstein was on the Odd Lots podcast.  He said he had no opinion on oil price but that when price + crack spread exceeds $180/barrel that is enough for a recession.

 

Current WTI + 321 Crack is around $145.  Brent + 321 Crack is $152.

 

There's not much time to play around. Even a regime change in Iran likely won't change the political dynamic in the US. People are going to be pissed.

[73 Reds]

10 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

HaHa! 

 

In a relationship with another human being, there are always ups and downs. I have been in the dog house a bit lately, trying to work on it, to make it up.

 

I screwed up dearly at Valentines day. 

 

I never stray from her, ever! I've taught her never to drag our disagreements into the bedroom. It's a demilitarizied zone! No discussion there! Never let the sun go down on your wrath! Only good times and rest, sleep in the bedroom!

 

No matter what, I always sleep next to her at my spot in the bed. She always know where I am, ETA home again said while leaving, if deviations from expectations, I call or text her.

 

Her deceased only hubby ever and father to her two kids [adults today] failed her in some respects. In the early years in our relationship I could clearly feel she had challenges ever to trust a man again, so I had actively to work on gaining it, and now, it's just a habit.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Rough dental work can really be a downer, but it normally gets better i a few days!

Yeah, been in the dog house before (usually self-inflicted).  Took a while for me to learn that a fine woman is to be appreciated and cherished.

[John Hjorth]

15 minutes ago, dealraker said:

So for those who take things too seriously it may help to know that when I saw what Greg had written, when I typed the above...I was laughing so hard to nearly pee in my pants both as to Greg's post and my response.  The subtext/satire/actual meaning often ain't what it seems in print!

 

Charlie [ @dealraker ],

 

Duly noted. 

[Xerxes]

While most of you fine North Americans and Europeans are stuck with your “recency bias” of 100,000-man force in Iraq, coupled with the word “quagmire”, thrown in for good measure, I will go back to what I said three weeks ago. 
 

Watch the Iranian regular army. Now now now don’t get too excited, I don’t mean as a deterrence to any ground operations by U.S., so no need to furiously reply how awesome are U.S. forces and how everyone should be shaking in their boots. 

 

But rather Iranian regular army as an internal pre-1979 institution that can be used to lever against the security elements of IRGC, if the right lever are pulled on the top. 
 

As far as”boots on the ground”. What does that mean exactly. If you think there are no special forces already operating, then you already off. Unless special forces don’t wear boots. 

Edited March 20 by Xerxes

[Xerxes]

18 hours ago, Viking said:

One of the interesting things is closing the Straight of Hormaz is a one-time event for Iran. They only get to play this card once. 
 

And that is because every Gulf country will be implementing a back up plan once the current conflict ends (pipelines etc). The fact that virtually no one has a back up plan tells you something about what participants thought the likelihood of this event was in the first place. Now they have new information.
 

My point is Iran has to get everything they want before opening up the Straight of Hormuz. Because they will never have this much leverage over the world/region ever again. 
 

It really is an interesting situation. 

 

“Iran has to get everything it wants” is pretty much covered by Vali Nasr last week. It is a good episode, if you do listen to it remember that Vali Nasr is speaking from a regime point of view (as that is his job as an analyst) and not his own personal view. 
 

Some people (usually Americans) who watch his analysis get confused because they think he is speaking for the regime.
 

I disagree that they cannot play this card given. In fact they normalized it. Given the range vs cost vs utility, of a 2,000 km drone, that option is always there. That is why new leadership is needed 

 

 

Edited March 20 by Xerxes

[dwy000]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

For John's sake(of course), I am just trying to find the consistency. If the "obvious Trump move" was to TACO and rollout, claiming a quick win, should the commentary on a ground attack even matter if its not "well I clearly was mistaken"?

 

Just the same as, if the commentary was "Trump will never bomb Iran, he'll TACO and they dont even have weapons", is it appropriate to do anything but laugh when immediately after they get bombed, those same narratives arent..."welp we were off in left field" but miraculously "they didnt even do any damage to the weapons" and "Israel played Trump"? John definitely needs to know!

Who said Trump wouldn't bomb Iran?  He's talked about it for a long time.  The only ones I ever heard making that argument were MAGA because he claimed the nuclear bomb making ability was obliterated 8 months ago so it wasn't necessary. I've never heard anyone else.make that argument. 

[rogermunibond]

[flesh]

42 minutes ago, Sweet said:

 It’s fairly clear, to me at least, that he underestimated what it would take to win strategically and that troops will be required to finish the deal.

 

But yeh, the complaining will just shift to something else.

 

53 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

For John's sake(of course), I am just trying to find the consistency. If the "obvious Trump move" was to TACO and rollout, claiming a quick win, should the commentary on a ground attack even matter if its not "well I clearly was mistaken"?

 

Just the same as, if the commentary was "Trump will never bomb Iran, he'll TACO and they dont even have weapons", is it appropriate to do anything but laugh when immediately after they get bombed, those same narratives arent..."welp we were off in left field" but miraculously "they didnt even do any damage to the weapons" and "Israel played Trump"? John definitely needs to know!

I'll admit to not knowing how to know when it comes to military actions. Afaik, if one fact changed, I could be for one way or the other. Namely, I don't think we have the intel that exists and we don't find out those details ever or often times for decades. If Iran had bioweapons ready to go and was planning at attack that would kill millions in USA, everyone would be thinking very different thoughts. Plenty of known risks, I have no idea what the unknown's are or the unknown unknowns. 

 

I don't believe history, especially political. Which history? The one fox news or the one MSNBC wrote (or those with the money, or the few that could write etc.). I don't think I've heard anyone articulate the history I would write about the massive blunders of the covid era. My version, won't be written by anybody. In order of importance, mine would center on the obvious blunder of the (unnecessary) shutdowns, the unnecessary massive debts that accelerated the death debt/inflation spiral that will hobble our country forever, the lesson to all our enemies of just how easy it is to destroy us, recipe clear for all to see. The overconfidence of scientism as opposed to science. The taking of excess powers/controlling speech of others the second the speech wasn't tenable to some.

 

It would definitely be more interesting, for those here that have strong opinions about Israel, Iran, etc. If they articulated what would be a just outcome or what they would do, when they made their opinions. Meaning, make your predictions, describe what is or isn't a good outcome and why, keep a scorecard. Not just so we can keep them accountable but so that they can clearly see their own inevitable mistakes/successes that result from clear pronouncements based on what turns out to be limited info in hindsight, often. 

 

A bit ago, I believe it was dealraker, described how he or some posters, were pushed from extreme worries about x then y then z and reflecting on the strangeness of it. I think the medium is the message there. Take Iran, if you can't say if this or that outcome happens, it's good and you find yourself only finding the bad in any outcome, ensuring you face zero cognitive dissonance, that's a good sign to look in the mirror. Alternatively if you set the bar so high, that the only good outcome exists only in utopia, ensuring your views can't lose.....

[rogermunibond]

[Gregmal]

Ah! Was waiting for the experts of Twitter to weigh in and let us all know what’s certainly going on!

[rogermunibond]

[Pelagic]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

While most of you fine North Americans and Europeans are stuck with your “recency bias” of 100,000-man force in Iraq, coupled with the word “quagmire”, thrown in for good measure, I will go back to what I said three weeks ago. 
 

Watch the Iranian regular army. Now now now don’t get too excited, I don’t mean as a deterrence to any ground operations by U.S., so no need to furiously reply how awesome are U.S. forces and how everyone should be shaking in their boots. 

 

But rather Iranian regular army as an internal pre-1979 institution that can be used to lever against the security elements of IRGC, if the right lever are pulled on the top. 
 

As far as”boots on the ground”. What does that mean exactly. If you think there are no special forces already operating, then you already off. Unless special forces don’t wear boots. 

 

One of the criticisms I read of the sinking of the Iranian ship by the US sub a week or so ago was that the ship was part of the Iranian navy and not the IRGC's naval forces like some of the other vessels destroyed in the Persian Gulf. The theory being the Iranian navy could be leveraged against the IRGC and that opportunity went out the window with the ship's sinking.

 

How accurate that theory is, and similar theories regarding the regular army, I don't know but it seemed more compelling than some of the other reductionist takes that said the US shouldn't have sunk the ship for vague reasons.

There's probably a scenario should this conflict drag on, that in a year or two from now where we look back at the ship's sinking and similarly the destruction of the girl's school like how we see the decision to disband the Iraqi army following the invasion in 2003 today - a totally unforced error. Not that these events have assured a united front from various elements within Iran but they certainly don't help when it comes to having levers to weaken the IRGC. 

[ourkid8]

4 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Weird. So I guess the girls claiming asylum just had flower allergies, nothing more?

Five other members pulled their asylum application. They were forced and pressured at the direction of the Epstein class to create these type of discussion to justify their actions. - SMH. (Proof is below) 
 

I can do the same with the insanity that is going on in Israel (raping Palestinians and not being charge or in the US. What’s your opinion of this? - I would love to know considering Israel dropped charges. 

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/3/12/israel-drops-charges-on-soldiers-who-allegedly-raped-palestinian-detainee
 

The incident, which occurred on July 5, 2024, resulted in the detainee being admitted to hospital. A doctor at the facility, Professor Yoel Donchin, told Israeli newspaper Haaretz he was so shocked by the man’s condition that he initially assumed it was the work of a rival armed group.

The military’s own indictment described soldiers stabbing the detainee with a sharp object near his rectum, causing cracked ribs, a punctured lung and an internal tear.

The US Department of State called the allegations “horrific” at the time and demanded a swift and full investigation. “There ought to be zero tolerance of any sexual abuse, rape, of any detainees, period,” then State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said.

 

Edited March 20 by ourkid8

[73 Reds]

1 hour ago, flesh said:

 

I'll admit to not knowing how to know when it comes to military actions. Afaik, if one fact changed, I could be for one way or the other. Namely, I don't think we have the intel that exists and we don't find out those details ever or often times for decades. If Iran had bioweapons ready to go and was planning at attack that would kill millions in USA, everyone would be thinking very different thoughts. Plenty of known risks, I have no idea what the unknown's are or the unknown unknowns. 

 

I don't believe history, especially political. Which history? The one fox news or the one MSNBC wrote (or those with the money, or the few that could write etc.). I don't think I've heard anyone articulate the history I would write about the massive blunders of the covid era. My version, won't be written by anybody. In order of importance, mine would center on the obvious blunder of the (unnecessary) shutdowns, the unnecessary massive debts that accelerated the death debt/inflation spiral that will hobble our country forever, the lesson to all our enemies of just how easy it is to destroy us, recipe clear for all to see. The overconfidence of scientism as opposed to science. The taking of excess powers/controlling speech of others the second the speech wasn't tenable to some.

 

It would definitely be more interesting, for those here that have strong opinions about Israel, Iran, etc. If they articulated what would be a just outcome or what they would do, when they made their opinions. Meaning, make your predictions, describe what is or isn't a good outcome and why, keep a scorecard. Not just so we can keep them accountable but so that they can clearly see their own inevitable mistakes/successes that result from clear pronouncements based on what turns out to be limited info in hindsight, often. 

 

A bit ago, I believe it was dealraker, described how he or some posters, were pushed from extreme worries about x then y then z and reflecting on the strangeness of it. I think the medium is the message there. Take Iran, if you can't say if this or that outcome happens, it's good and you find yourself only finding the bad in any outcome, ensuring you face zero cognitive dissonance, that's a good sign to look in the mirror. Alternatively if you set the bar so high, that the only good outcome exists only in utopia, ensuring your views can't lose.....

Don't you think you are making this more difficult than it needs to be?  Most of the Free World would probably agree with the following:

 

Good outcome:  Iran's nuclear capabilities are set back for as long as possible.

 

Better outcome:  The present regime is ousted and the Iranian population chooses a new leader and government.

 

Even better outcome:  The new leaders and government are willing to work with both Arab States and the rest of the Free World to improve life for citizens of Iran.   Start with the Abraham accords and trade relations outside oil with countries besides Russia and China and go from there.

[Gregmal]

3 minutes ago, ourkid8 said:

Five other members pulled their asylum application. They were forced and pressured at the direction of the Epstein class to create these type of discussion to justify their actions. - SMH. 
 

I can do the same with the insanity that is going on in Israel (raping Palestinians and not being charge or in the US. What’s your opinion of this? - I would love to know considering Israel dropped charges. 

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/3/12/israel-drops-charges-on-soldiers-who-allegedly-raped-palestinian-detainee
 

The incident, which occurred on July 5, 2024, resulted in the detainee being admitted to hospital. A doctor at the facility, Professor Yoel Donchin, told Israeli newspaper Haaretz he was so shocked by the man’s condition that he initially assumed it was the work of a rival armed group.

The military’s own indictment described soldiers stabbing the detainee with a sharp object near his rectum, causing cracked ribs, a punctured lung and an internal tear.

The US Department of State called the allegations “horrific” at the time and demanded a swift and full investigation. “There ought to be zero tolerance of any sexual abuse, rape, of any detainees, period,” then State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said.

 

Ok, well appreciate the perspective. I dont have high level conviction in anything I hear from MSM. And not holding my breath that there would ever be anything positive said here about Iran(assuming there are in fact positive things to be said). So it's all taken with a grain of salt either way. Same goes for China, Russia, etc. Internal media bans on anything that doesnt show them as animals "not like us"...

[cubsfan]

6 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Don't you think you are making this more difficult than it needs to be?  Most of the Free World would probably agree with the following:

 

Good outcome:  Iran's nuclear capabilities are set back for as long as possible.

 

Better outcome:  The present regime is ousted and the Iranian population chooses a new leader and government.

 

Even better outcome:  The new leaders and government are willing to work with both Arab States and the rest of the Free World to improve life for citizens of Iran.   Start with the Abraham accords and trade relations outside oil with countries besides Russia and China and go from there.

 

It's pretty much that simple.

 

But our boys here felt it all should have been done in 1 week - otherwise the operation is a total failure.

 

Delusions...

[Xerxes]

31 minutes ago, Pelagic said:

 

One of the criticisms I read of the sinking of the Iranian ship by the US sub a week or so ago was that the ship was part of the Iranian navy and not the IRGC's naval forces like some of the other vessels destroyed in the Persian Gulf. The theory being the Iranian navy could be leveraged against the IRGC and that opportunity went out the window with the ship's sinking.

 

How accurate that theory is, and similar theories regarding the regular army, I don't know but it seemed more compelling than some of the other reductionist takes that said the US shouldn't have sunk the ship for vague reasons.

There's probably a scenario should this conflict drag on, that in a year or two from now where we look back at the ship's sinking and similarly the destruction of the girl's school like how we see the decision to disband the Iraqi army following the invasion in 2003 today - a totally unforced error. Not that these events have assured a united front from various elements within Iran but they certainly don't help when it comes to having levers to weaken the IRGC. 

Sinking the warships was childish affair unworthy of Pentagon. The Navy was probably the most insulated element of the armed forces from IRGC ideologues. 

The hunting the other ship close of Sri Lanka was nothing more than a recreation of sinking of General Belgrado by HMS Conqueror for the MAGA Faithful. 

 

Instead they should have gone after the drone mine ship and IRGC gunboats right away. They left that for second half. 

[ourkid8]

7 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Ok, well appreciate the perspective. I dont have high level conviction in anything I hear from MSM. And not holding my breath that there would ever be anything positive said here about Iran(assuming there are in fact positive things to be said). So it's all taken with a grain of salt either way. Same goes for China, Russia, etc. Internal media bans on anything that doesnt show them as animals "not like us"...

What do you think of Zionists raping Palestinians in jail, brutally torturing them and then they are not convicted? That’s shows a broken society where there is no rule of law. This is what happens when the leader is a genocidal war criminal.

 

That’s why I am here to add that other perspective. (I usually do not even post much either) We are not sheep, we are value investors that need to look past the noise. - if I wasn’t here, you guys would just follow all the Epstein class propaganda. 

Edited March 20 by ourkid8

[Xerxes]

4 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Ok, well appreciate the perspective. I dont have high level conviction in anything I hear from MSM. And not holding my breath that there would ever be anything positive said here about Iran(assuming there are in fact positive things to be said). So it's all taken with a grain of salt either way. Same goes for China, Russia, etc. Internal media bans on anything that doesnt show them as animals "not like us"...

 

it is simple anything that has high resolution camera from Tehran is state-approved. Now a days, you even see a lot of “interviews” with women without Hijab in state rallies. Sometimes you see the same hijab less woman appearing in different locations expressing her love for IR. Weird that regime always happen to find the same woman to interview. 

 

And the fools from CNN played into their hand by sending there one CNN reporter to watch state rally and funerals by the regime Faithful. Wow. Some amazing on the ground reporting.