Xerxes Posted March 1 Posted March 1 (edited) 32 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: The Shah grandson would be a poor choice. The Shah deserves a lot of blame for the Islamic revolution succeeding in the first place. There have to be people with more legitimacy. three wrong statements in the same paragraph - crown prince is the late Shah son not grandson - 1979 was a popular revolution. That was when the merchant, clerical and civil establishments took on the monarchy as a power center. It was not an Islamic revolution. It only became that after the islamist faction consolidated power. - crown prince may not sit on the Peacock Throne. But not because who his father was or was not. But simply for the fact that he has seen no hardship and been living in the U.S. for decades. That said I believe he can be a transitional figure. bonus: - the late Shah to his credit didn’t slaughter +10,000 of his own people. He simply left. Can’t say the same for these guys. Edited March 1 by Xerxes
John Hjorth Posted March 1 Posted March 1 21 minutes ago, Xerxes said: three wrong statements in the same paragraph - crown prince is the late Shah son not grandson - 1979 was a popular revolution. That was when the merchant, clerical and civil establishments took on the monarchy as a power center. It was not an Islamic revolution. It only became that after the islamist faction consolidated power. - crown prince may not sit on the Peacock Throne. But not because who his father was or was not. But simply for the fact that he has seen no hardship and been living in the U.S. for decades. That said I believe he can be a transitional figure. bonus: - the late Shah to his credit didn’t slaughter +10,000 of his own people. He simply left. Can’t say the same for these guys. @Xerxes is our library on two legs. But as @Spekulatius and others have posted here : Let's hope this paves the way for change to the better, for the good of all of us.
dealraker Posted March 1 Posted March 1 (edited) So now while we discuss Iran for the next 50, Cuba, etc. the thing perfectly obvious is that we have a man who said it would be deals and not global interventions or whatnot. What we have is a POTUS who will take this county, and it cubs, wherever he wants - or better said needs - to go...and for various reasons and timing he will do so. We discuss only what he wants us to discuss; we avoid what he wants us to avoid. Some of you make fun of ole deal's obsession with Trump - while you have the exact same obsession. But I've watched this man for decades. What you think you and he have in common is only for the moment. Trump is going to be out and about raising hell and moving on. Like it or not, you are on this journey with him. He's in complete control and you'll end up with what's left after he's moved on. In the meantime cyclical stocks...please remember "folks" we are giving Trump the green light because Mr. Market is giddy...are slamming to the upside. Old school value is the happy place. Yea, we are all distracted and you can be sure Trump is headed to an entirely new spot. You will focus on that, and only that! Edited March 1 by dealraker
John Hjorth Posted March 1 Posted March 1 29 minutes ago, dealraker said: So now while we discuss Iran for the next 50, Cuba, etc. the thing perfectly obvious is that we have a man who said it would be deals and not global interventions or whatnot. What we have is a POTUS who will take this county, and it cubs, wherever he wants - or better said needs - to go...and for various reasons and timing he will do so. We discuss only what he wants us to discuss; we avoid what he wants us to avoid. Some of you make fun of ole deal's obsession with Trump - while you have the exact same obsession. But I've watched this man for decades. What you think you and he have in common is only for the moment. Trump is going to be out and about raising hell and moving on. Like it or not, you are on this journey with him. He's in complete control and you'll end up with what's left after he's moved on. In the meantime cyclical stocks...please remember "folks" we are giving Trump the green light because Mr. Market is giddy...are slamming to the upside. Old school value is the happy place. Yea, we are all distracted and you can be sure Trump is headed to an entirely new spot. You will focus on that, and only that! - Even KALs cartoons can't keep up with the speed implemented by POTUS - LOLz! - Last one dated 26 February, and already totally out of date :
dealraker Posted March 1 Posted March 1 (edited) 32 minutes ago, John Hjorth said: - Even KALs cartoons can't keep up with the speed implemented by POTUS - LOLz! - Last one dated 26 February, and already totally out of date : This is probably the best financial read you'll ever come across as to how right-in-your-face it all happens. It does prepare you, it literally instructs you, as to understanding what Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger are/were about...and of course what Donald John Trump is all about. That is precisely what we are living today, all of us, like it or not. It just never comes up as to what Trump is all about. Life is great...if you can stand it! https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/12/nyregion/donald-trump-atlantic-city.html Edited March 1 by dealraker
SharperDingaan Posted March 1 Posted March 1 (edited) Round 1 to the Americans/Israelis .... but even by their best estimates, this a 2-3 week sustained event (14-21 days). 21 rounds, with every round going their way ... have you ever seen that in any kind of extended fight ??? ... there is almost never a walkover. Don't want to talk about it. The Ayatollah is dead; good riddance, the man was scum! Congratulations .... the Ayatollah is now a martyr, right after his Friday declaration from the pulpit that Satan's demands were just unacceptable .... the Americans/Israelis are now fighting a holy war against the Great Satan. How do you think it's going to go at Friday prayers this week, after you've just assassinated the supreme leader, along with the senior leadership of the religions protective guard ??? One of the great hopes is that enough of the republican guard now lays down its arms, and successfully implements a coup d'etat returning the monarchy, with the population in the streets supporting it. Just after the republican guard has been radicalised via the execution of their leadership, there is strong incentive to suppress via the use of live ammunition on the crowds of would be supporters, and assassinate the replacement as rapidly as possible. What if the newly installed, just doesn't live very long ??? Another of the great hopes is that oil production/shipping is left alone (Kharg Island, Strait of Hormuz), so that the people of Iran might still benefit, post regime change. No possibility that the newly radicalised intentionally choose not to go 'scorched earth' ??? and simply destroy it ..... as the pulpits now proclaim as acceptable revenge upon the Great Satan .... reliant upon that oil. No possibility that Saudi Arabian radicals quietly arm Houthis with ship killing missiles, to maintain attacks on tanker traffic, so as to keep oil prices high ??? Bin Laden, and Khashoggi excepted, we're friends now! Awesome planes, awesome navy, raining hell upon earth ... but largely unable to stop it, if it doesn't go their way. Not once and done; high risk, high return for a reason, and not much one can do against fanatics with little to lose.. Don't want to talk about it. Obviously, we hope it works out as planned, but that usually isn't the experience; buckle up. SD Edited March 1 by SharperDingaan
Spekulatius Posted March 1 Posted March 1 The Republican guard cannot step aside after killing probably ten thousands of people and running the country for decades effectively with the Mullahs as ideological cover. They are too deeply involved in these crimes and ten thousands of them will go on trial or perhaps even hang from poles before right after they cede power, because people will be rightly very angry at them. The likely course of action for the Republican guards is to soldier on and escalate. Best case scenario is that top leadership starts to bail to Russia and the system crumbles from the top.
changegonnacome Posted March 1 Posted March 1 32 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: The likely course of action for the Republican guards is to soldier on and escalate. Best case scenario is that top leadership starts to bail to Russia and the system crumbles from the top. Yeah that's the dream but there is no coherent opposition in Iran ready to bubble up from below and bring order to a power vacuum....chaos is likely to ensue....and regime change is most likely to mean a civil war first. What comes out of that isnt clear - a liberal democracy? Maybe. I applaud President Trump his success the world is a far better place with Khamenei not in it.....but this isn't a movie where you get to roll credits when you take out the big baddie at the end.
Xerxes Posted March 1 Posted March 1 1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said: One of the great hopes is that enough of the republican guard now lays down its arms, and successfully implements a coup d'etat returning the monarchy, with the population in the streets supporting it. Just after the republican guard has been radicalised via the execution of their leadership, there is strong incentive to suppress via the use of live ammunition on the crowds of would be supporters, and assassinate the replacement as rapidly as possible. What if the newly installed, just doesn't live very long ?? I think you meant the Revolutionary Guard …. and not the republican guard, which don’t exist in Iran. By definition the Revolutionary Guard are the guardians of the revolution. Any coup from IRGC will be to take power from the clerical establishment, and transfer that power to itself : the IRGC … not to the Monarchy, which doesn’t really exist as a power center. The better statement would be to call for the national army (which is an institution that goes back decades prior to the revolution) to march on Tehran. But it is too early for that. Right now the ball is in Larijani court.
Spekulatius Posted March 1 Posted March 1 (edited) Yes, I ment Revolutionary guard. The Republican guard were the elite units in Iraq’s army under Hussein. My brain must melting. The Revolutionary Guard is the machinery that runs the Iran, and the military industrial and executive complex so to speak. I wonder if the US command is going to disable Kharg Island. 90% of Iran’s oil exports run over this hub. Without it, they can export much and that means no foreign currency income. Yes, it would sent crude prices higher but it would foremost hit China, which gets discounted Iranian crude. That would not be a bad thing either. Edited March 1 by Spekulatius
John Hjorth Posted March 1 Posted March 1 1 hour ago, Xerxes said: I think you meant the Revolutionary Guard …. and not the republican guard, which don’t exist in Iran. By definition the Revolutionary Guard are the guardians of the revolution. Any coup from IRGC will be to take power from the clerical establishment, and transfer that power to itself : the IRGC … not to the Monarchy, which doesn’t really exist as a power center. The better statement would be to call for the national army (which is an institution that goes back decades prior to the revolution) to march on Tehran. But it is too early for that. Right now the ball is in Larijani court. That's actually a bit funny! - - - o 0 o - - - Then I hear in my ear snail from White House that 'We want to talk', all while 48 members of the Iranian clerical rule have been taken out! <*BOOM*> -Don't wanna talk? : Implied <more *BOOM*> The rest of the Iranian clerical rule scrared shitless, trying to hide! Butt ugly all of it, but it could be Friday, I think, in stead of Sunday!
Xerxes Posted March 1 Posted March 1 30 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: Yes, I ment Revolutionary guard. The Republican guard were the elite units in Iraq’s army under Hussein. My brain must melting. The Revolutionary Guard is the machinery that runs the Iran, and the military industrial and executive complex so to speak. I wonder if the US command is going to disable Kharg Island. 90% of Iran’s oil exports run over this hub. Without it, they can export much and that means no foreign currency income. Yes, it would sent crude prices higher but it would foremost hit China, which gets discounted Iranian crude. That would not be a bad thing either. I personally think Kharg shouldn’t be touched. It is national asset and not IRGC asset. The war is waged against the regime and not the people. It would be counter productive to hit a major national asset, in my view, the better threat is the personal asset and P&L of IRGC leadership. Like you stated IRGC is commercial-military-industrial complex with many stakeholders. Interesting thing about IRGC: right after the Iran-Iraq War, the government in Tehran has no more cash flow to sustain two different militaries. So Rafsanjani gave the mandate to IRGC to become a self funding organization to avoid dismantling. So they got into business and over the decades they got their hands in everything. To Rafsanjani’ deepest regret years later as he lost power to the Khameni-IRGC power center. But the real booster of IRGC was ironically the economic sanctions that Washington imposed. That minted millionaires and billionaires as they took control of the export-import.
Xerxes Posted March 1 Posted March 1 (edited) 41 minutes ago, John Hjorth said: That's actually a bit funny! - - - o 0 o - - - Then I hear in my ear snail from White House that 'We want to talk', all while 48 members of the Iranian clerical rule have been taken out! <*BOOM*> -Don't wanna talk? : Implied <more *BOOM*> The rest of the Iranian clerical rule scrared shitless, trying to hide! Butt ugly all of it, but it could be Friday, I think, in stead of Sunday! subtly: clerical rule refers to the regime itself. clerical establishment refers to one of the power centers. Other being IRGC, the merchant etc. Clerical establishment was there before 1979. Khamenei role was to balance the needs of different stakeholders and build consensus. Stubborn man he was but he knew how to rule through division. Edited March 1 by Xerxes
SharperDingaan Posted March 1 Posted March 1 (edited) 2 hours ago, Xerxes said: I think you meant the Revolutionary Guard …. and not the republican guard, which don’t exist in Iran. By definition the Revolutionary Guard are the guardians of the revolution. Any coup from IRGC will be to take power from the clerical establishment, and transfer that power to itself : the IRGC … not to the Monarchy, which doesn’t really exist as a power center. The better statement would be to call for the national army (which is an institution that goes back decades prior to the revolution) to march on Tehran. But it is too early for that. Right now the ball is in Larijani court. Correct, it should be the Revolutionary Guard. Praying for the military to implement a coup is a long shot. They were under the revolutionary guard for a long time, and the potential leaders will be known ... simple matter to return the policy of leader assassination. This is a time when the next crop of viscous killers will make their reputations ... all that a Mossad can do is try to snuff them in the crib, before they do their thing. Useful to keep in mind that orange boy has also made a lot of enemies of late, and made his head an assassination trophy. What goes around comes around, and as in pool .... break the frame, and there is lots of opportunity. State on state assassination is a legitimate policy these days. Not what many want to hear. SD Edited March 1 by SharperDingaan
John Hjorth Posted March 1 Posted March 1 49 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said: Correct, it should be the Revolutionary Guard. Praying for the military to implement a coup is a long shot. They were under the revolutionary guard for a long time, and the potential leaders will be known ... simple matter to return the policy of leader assassination. This is a time when the next crop of viscous killers will make their reputations ... all that a Mossad can do is try to snuff them in the crib, before they do their thing. Useful to keep in mind that orange boy has also made a lot of enemies of late, and made his head an assassination trophy. What goes around comes around, and as in pool .... break the frame, and there is lots of opportunity. State on state assassination is a legitimate policy these days. Not what many want to hear. SD Actually, an awful read, yet still, thank you, SD [ @SharperDingaan ], The whole thing is deeply depressing to think about. - - - o 0 o - - - Shared here, just to get in a better mood and sentiment - I really think we deserve it! : Loudmouth - Get Lucky [to me, an awesome chear-up in this situation, all while I really hate green - LOLz
whatstheofficerproblem Posted March 1 Posted March 1 I am actually kinda glad that the US/Israel has Khamenei killed. So many 'elements' in India are exposing themselves and that is giving a lot of folks a much needed reality check. His predecessor Khomeini was part Indian, it's always the radicals from India who set out to teach their own colonizers the religion they imposed on them .
Sweet Posted March 1 Posted March 1 1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said: Correct, it should be the Revolutionary Guard. Praying for the military to implement a coup is a long shot. They were under the revolutionary guard for a long time, and the potential leaders will be known ... simple matter to return the policy of leader assassination. This is a time when the next crop of viscous killers will make their reputations ... all that a Mossad can do is try to snuff them in the crib, before they do their thing. Useful to keep in mind that orange boy has also made a lot of enemies of late, and made his head an assassination trophy. What goes around comes around, and as in pool .... break the frame, and there is lots of opportunity. State on state assassination is a legitimate policy these days. Not what many want to hear. SD The Iranians were reported to be trying to assassinate Trump before his second term.
dealraker Posted March 1 Posted March 1 2 hours ago, SharperDingaan said: Correct, it should be the Revolutionary Guard. Praying for the military to implement a coup is a long shot. They were under the revolutionary guard for a long time, and the potential leaders will be known ... simple matter to return the policy of leader assassination. This is a time when the next crop of viscous killers will make their reputations ... all that a Mossad can do is try to snuff them in the crib, before they do their thing. Useful to keep in mind that orange boy has also made a lot of enemies of late, and made his head an assassination trophy. What goes around comes around, and as in pool .... break the frame, and there is lots of opportunity. State on state assassination is a legitimate policy these days. Not what many want to hear. SD We ain't talkin' 'bout stuff Trump don't want us to talk 'bout...he controls the narrative, he wins. He's playing golf, there's a time period now where the media rants but he gets and extended break. Fox is doing their one story all else is tabloid thing while CNN is dancing through its typical awfulizations. Next up? I'm about ready to enter the predictions marketplace for Trump actions, I'm pretty good at it.
Xerxes Posted March 1 Posted March 1 1 hour ago, whatstheofficerproblem said: His predecessor Khomeini was part Indian, it's always the radicals from India who set out to teach their own colonizers the religion they imposed on them . I always thought that Khomeini being half Indian was a payback for Nader Shah conquest of Delhi and its subsequent looting.
whatstheofficerproblem Posted March 2 Posted March 2 5 hours ago, Xerxes said: I always thought that Khomeini being half Indian was a payback for Nader Shah conquest of Delhi and its subsequent looting. Hahahaha. Unfortunately lots of folks in India still live in a delusion that they are 'Iranians' and came as part of Nader's army which isn't true. There are rallies going on in India right now where folks of a certain denomination are protesting Khamenei's death.
Gregmal Posted March 2 Posted March 2 2 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said: Hahahaha. Unfortunately lots of folks in India still live in a delusion that they are 'Iranians' and came as part of Nader's army which isn't true. There are rallies going on in India right now where folks of a certain denomination are protesting Khamenei's death. There’s NY and CA liberals in India?
frommi Posted March 2 Posted March 2 I get the impression that Trump put the middle east on fire and now it spreads and he is not able to put the fire out anymore.
cubsfan Posted March 2 Posted March 2 40 minutes ago, frommi said: I get the impression that Trump put the middle east on fire and now it spreads and he is not able to put the fire out anymore. When has the Middle East not been on fire?
adventurer Posted March 2 Posted March 2 If they re-install the Shah again, it will just be another cycle starting from anew. To my mind it shows that the people of Iran are not ready for a true liberation in the form of a completely new political system. Instead they are stuck between a monarchy and an islamic state. Both with a strong tendency towards authoritarianism. At some point the islamic forces will regain strength and the country will once more tumble into chaos. This part of the world is stuck in an authoritarian spiral. If the people don`t manage to find a completely new system but are instead stuck in past times this will never end.
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now