Political Posts

[SharperDingaan]

6 hours ago, Cigarbutt said:

For net capital outflows from the US to occur, a net trade surplus (?) to the world is (mathematically) necessary...

 

Think of your bank account. Capital outflow (spend) doesn't depend on your debt (trade surplus); it just depends on you having a positive balance in your account (reserves) at the time of the outflow. As your reserves and debt capacity deplete, you get poorer, and the outflows accelerate as the crowd stampedes the exit. 

 

If you weren't sure on this, look at London SW real estate prices before and after the various oil crises. Same thing is coming to the US.

 

SD

 

 

[wachtwoord]

2 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

The tax system taxes citizens based on what is believed to be fair contributions based on income.  Just like every individual is allowed a vote in an election.  no individual gets more or less votes based on the level of tax they pay.  So if the tax system is fair (and that can be argued either way), then the populace should have equal access to the same non-profit institutions based on proportionate representation.  Cheers!

 

But that is inherently unfair and extremely exploitable, as modern politics CLEARLY demonstrates. Voting power SHOULD be weighed by tax contribution otherwise politicians will just use the many to hold the few true societal contributors hostage and share the spoils (5% for the plebs and 95% for the politicians and their robber buddies).

 

Who pays should decide. Any other system is no different than paying the mafia protection money: theft by extortion.

 

Next to being immoral, it also stunts societal growth. Far less will spend their energy and time on this planet creating true betterment for society in such an environment. 

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

 

You agree Conservatives are wildly underrepresented, yes?

 

Where?

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

The argument is as fucked up as saying "there are more black people in the NBA because they have a genetic athletic advantage".

The only difference is that as soon as IQ comes into play, for some reason you have to tip toe around it.

 

Not to go further off topic but did the British have a statistically funded basis for their statements?

 

Steph Curry is half black and half white.  Wembayana is also.  They dominate the league.  Are you going to say that their black half is what allows them to do so?

 

The world (and people in general) are a lot more complicated than just their genetic makeup.  And standardized tests to measure intelligence have been proven to be inefficient in deciding a person's fate or outcome.  

 

I just can't believe that people still believe this crap!  Cheers!

[james22]

3 hours ago, Parsad said:

That's a very fucked up argument.

 

That's evolution.

[Parsad]

3 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

That's evolution.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/mar/02/the-unwelcome-revival-of-race-science

 

Cheers!

[Paarslaars]

31 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Steph Curry is half black and half white.  Wembayana is also.  They dominate the league.  Are you going to say that their black half is what allows them to do so?

 

The world (and people in general) are a lot more complicated than just their genetic makeup.  And standardized tests to measure intelligence have been proven to be inefficient in deciding a person's fate or outcome.  

 

I just can't believe that people still believe this crap!  Cheers!

We are getting way off topic but just to make things clear, you're reading too much into what is actually said.

I claim there is a genetic component to all these things, I'm not excluded that there are other components nor that we should take generalized actions (i.e. determining someone's fate).

 

However, I do believe immigration wise it is useful to look at statistics related to nationality/races and base your policy on.

For instance:

You can see 1.8% crime rate for Germans vs 14.5% for Afghani migrants in Germany.

Based on this data, I have no problem with countries implementing stricter immigration policies for Afghani migrants.

[Xerxes]

Seems like an interesting book given today environment. Will post on book thread when I get it. 
 

 

 

Edited April 17, 2025 by Xerxes

[Sweet]

11 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Seems like an interesting book given today environment. Will post on book thread when I get it. 
 

 

 

 

 

The last paragraph is a brutal lesson.

[wachtwoord]

28 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/mar/02/the-unwelcome-revival-of-race-science

 

Cheers!

 

Science is never unwelcome to any scientist. Only to the woke elites that cosplay as scientists and/or science-proponents.

 

Disallowing the rigorous research of something, anything, is inherently oppressive. It just results in contrarions to be extremely suspicious of what is attempted to be hidden. Just research it in broad daylight and show there's nothing there!

[Dinar]

6 hours ago, RichardGibbons said:

 

You can draw a different conclusion just by assuming the distribution of black students' results is bimodal. Suppose that the top 10% of students are admitted to Stuyvesant, and the top 0.1% are admitted to Harvard.  Suppose 18% of the top 0.1% are black, but there are basically no black students in the top 10% other than those ones in the top 0.1%.

 

In general, I think it's just a bad idea to assume that differences in outcome are caused by discrimination. (That said, the Harvard one clearly has a discrimination component, because they say it is.)

 

All that aside, it's a really terrible idea for people to go back to the idea that race really should mean something significant or that people should have different rights and responsibilities based on some arbitrary "race" category. 

 

The 20th century showed what a bad idea this was, and I struggle to think of a single nation that maintained the idea of "race should be a significant determinant of your outcomes" that had generally good outcomes for everyone.  (And it's obvious why--we all benefit when others are innovative, productive, and allowed to grow. Hindering people's ability to succeed based on completely arbitrary criteria like race hurts everyone. I benefit when Steve Jobs creates the iPhone and when Satya Nadella builds Microsoft's cloud solution. I don't want either one of them limited by their race.)

Except that it is the top 0.7% that are accepted to Stuyvesant.  It is a well known fact that SAT scores for black students at Harvard are 200-300 points below whites and asians.  

[Ulti]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-adviser-wants-rewrite-global-154157647.html
 

interesting read .. and associated with Harvard

[Investor20]

In 2013: 9,600 Fentanyl related deaths:

U.S., China Reach Agreement to Stem U.S.-Bound Flow of Fentanyl
The drug contributed to at least 9,600 fatal overdoses in U.S. since 2013...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-china-reach-agreement-to-stem-u-s-bound-flow-of-fentanyl-1472935551

The Obama administration on Saturday announced new “enhanced measures” it will take with China to potentially stem the U.S.-bound flow of fentanyl, the powerful narcotic drug linked to the deaths of thousands of Americans in the past several years.

In 2023: Hundreds of thousands of Americans died of Fentanyl:

President Biden pressed the Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Wednesday to crack down on the Chinese firms that are helping to produce fentanyl, a potent drug that has killed hundreds of thousands of Americans.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/15/business/economy/biden-xi-fentanyl.html

 

Principle:
You can't make a good deal with a bad person - Warren Buffett

[Investor20]

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/drugs-fentanyl-supplychain/

We bought everything needed to make $3 million worth of fentanyl.
All it took was $3,600 and a web browser
July 25, 2024
At the tap of a buyer’s smartphone, Chinese chemical sellers will air-ship fentanyl ingredients door-to-door to North America. Reuters purchased enough to make 3 million pills. Such deals are astonishingly easy – and reveal how drug traffickers are eluding efforts to halt the deadly trade behind the fentanyl crisis..

 

What is the plan, like Obama and Biden try another diplomatic agreement?

Or Time to Apply Warren Buffett Principle

You can't make a good deal with a bad person.

Edited April 17, 2025 by Investor20

[dwy000]

21 minutes ago, Investor20 said:

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/drugs-fentanyl-supplychain/

We bought everything needed to make $3 million worth of fentanyl.
All it took was $3,600 and a web browser
July 25, 2024
At the tap of a buyer’s smartphone, Chinese chemical sellers will air-ship fentanyl ingredients door-to-door to North America. Reuters purchased enough to make 3 million pills. Such deals are astonishingly easy – and reveal how drug traffickers are eluding efforts to halt the deadly trade behind the fentanyl crisis..

 

What is the plan, like Obama and Biden try another diplomatic agreement?

Or Time to Apply Warren Buffett Principle

You can't make a good deal with a bad person.

You don't actually think the whole tariff debacle is about fentanyl do you?  That's just the excuse to impose "emergency" powers for the exec orders. 

[Pelagic]

7 hours ago, Sweet said:

He is trying to insert a further wedge between the US and EU.  He’s playing to what Trump cares about, investment in the US, and he’s tempting him with a big pile of money.

Scenario: Trump might see the money as a form of payback to America from Europe for underspending on NATO defence.  He might demand that such money is released because it’s an important part of the peace negotiations.  If Europe refuse Putin and Trump might then claim Europe is standing in the way of peace.

 

So basically he’s tempting Trump’s greed.

It's strange Trump refused to sell Ukraine $50B worth of patriot missiles if making deals for America is his priority. His press conference made it sound like Ukraine was asking for offensive missiles, ATACMS or something similar to strike inside Russia, but then it turns out they want to buy more air defense capabilities with mostly EU funds. Hard to see the EU giving an inch on allowing Russian access to frozen funds when their plan to fund Ukraine's purchase of materiel from US stocks seems to have stalled. I think most would agree this is a fairly good plan, let the EU fund Ukraine as it can and if it doesn't have the capacity to provide weapons the US let's Ukraine purchase weapons from its stockpiles. The US gets paid back, the EU bears the brunt of the costs, and Ukraine receives the aid it needs.

 

There's also this report by The Economist where Trump's admin apparently pressured a European ally to stop providing aid to Ukraine and they told him to pound sand. 

https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/04/15/trumps-ukraine-ceasefire-is-slipping-away

 

[Sweet]

2 minutes ago, Pelagic said:

There's also this report by The Economist where Trump's admin apparently pressured a European ally to stop providing aid to Ukraine and they told him to pound sand. 

Less and less will listen or care what he says going forward.  It’s like being told off by someone you know, over and over again, eventually you just think… whatever.

[John Hjorth]

9 hours ago, Viking said:

... , I think what people are missing is Trump can’t be trusted (I am putting it politely). There will never be an actual ‘deal,’ in terms of what people think that means (and how you wrote). Yes, he will do a ‘deal.’ And then when it suits him, he will demand to renegotiate (he will manufacture a reason and the MAGA crowd will buy it hook line and sinker). It will be a constant state of flux for other countries.
 

The USMCA trade deal with Canada and Mexico is a great example. Trump was the one who actually did that deal and it went into effect in 2020. But Trump has now decided a deal is not really a deal. It is just the next stage in him/the US extracting its pound of flesh. Because it can. 
 

It is a completely bizarre way to run a country. It is right out of some third world banana republic (might is right, lies, corruption…).
 

I agree with you. The only way to manage this shit show is to stall and delay. If you negotiate in good faith he will simply view you as weak and keep coming for more. Trump is a predator. He eats. He is never satiated. Welcome to the new USA. (And many Americans wonder why the rest of the world is getting so pissed. They view the T-Rex is the victim in their world.)

 

Lars [ @Viking ],

 

Three days more, and then we're just three months into this scenario.

 

Today : 

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

It's not that long ago [a couple of weeks or so?] Charlie [ @dealraker ] posted, that the decisions already made and actions already taken by POTUS  likely and eventually will catch up with him, and take control over him.

 

I think we are already at that point.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I've always been of the opinion that the World lost a hell of a software engineer by my personal decision while young to become a bean counter.

 

Attached is my humble contribution to make the World a better place. [The cat Lulu thinks it's awesome!, while The Lady of the House thinks I've now totally lost it. ]

 

Excel file for CofBFers to help cope with things as is - 20250417.xlsx

[Investor20]

25 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

You don't actually think the whole tariff debacle is about fentanyl do you?  That's just the excuse to impose "emergency" powers for the exec orders. 

Trump administration says it is about both IP theft and Fentanyl crisis. Irrespective of what Trump administration is saying, is it worth cheaper goods for "hundreds of thousands" kids dying? What is your solution?

 

I prefer Warren Buffett Principle: You cannot make a good deal with a bad person. When someone does not give a damn about kids health and life, I dont do business with them. Period.

 

 

[LC]

2 minutes ago, Investor20 said:

Trump administration says it is about both IP theft and Fentanyl crisis. Irrespective of what Trump administration is saying, is it worth cheaper goods for "hundreds of thousands" kids dying? What is your solution?

 

We should declare a War on Drugs.

It really worked well the last time we tried it.

[John Hjorth]

7 hours ago, Sweet said:

He is trying to insert a further wedge between the US and EU.  He’s playing to what Trump cares about, investment in the US, and he’s tempting him with a big pile of money.

Scenario: Trump might see the money as a form of payback to America from Europe for underspending on NATO defence.  He might demand that such money is released because it’s an important part of the peace negotiations.  If Europe refuse Putin and Trump might then claim Europe is standing in the way of peace.

 

So basically he’s tempting Trump’s greed.

 

24 minutes ago, Pelagic said:

It's strange Trump refused to sell Ukraine $50B worth of patriot missiles if making deals for America is his priority. His press conference made it sound like Ukraine was asking for offensive missiles, ATACMS or something similar to strike inside Russia, but then it turns out they want to buy more air defense capabilities with mostly EU funds. Hard to see the EU giving an inch on allowing Russian access to frozen funds when their plan to fund Ukraine's purchase of materiel from US stocks seems to have stalled. I think most would agree this is a fairly good plan, let the EU fund Ukraine as it can and if it doesn't have the capacity to provide weapons the US let's Ukraine purchase weapons from its stockpiles. The US gets paid back, the EU bears the brunt of the costs, and Ukraine receives the aid it needs.

 

There's also this report by The Economist where Trump's admin apparently pressured a European ally to stop providing aid to Ukraine and they told him to pound sand. 

https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/04/15/trumps-ukraine-ceasefire-is-slipping-away

 

Reading these posts by @Sweet and @Pelagic, and thinking about the content of them, and the built-in POTUS logic in them, has caused a minor brain hemorrhoid. 

Edited April 17, 2025 by John Hjorth

[Investor20]

2 minutes ago, LC said:

 

We should declare a War on Drugs.

It really worked well the last time we tried it.

At the least dont make the guy who wants to sell illicit drugs and kill our children richer by doing business with them and Buffett says he never was able to make a profitable deal with such a person.

Edited April 17, 2025 by Investor20

[dwy000]

Just now, Investor20 said:

Trump administration says it is about both IP theft and Fentanyl crisis. Irrespective of what Trump administration is saying, is it worth cheaper goods for "hundreds of thousands" kids dying? What is your solution?

 

I prefer Warren Buffett Principle: You cannot make a good deal with a bad person. When someone does not give a damn about kids health and life, I dont do business with them. Period.

 

 

Lying (which is Trumps go to starting point) about fentanyl as a reason for trade wars undermines any actual effort to fight against fentanyl.  They're 2 different fights and Trump is using one without any effort to do anything about it, as an excuse to act against the other. 

[changegonnacome]

 

Another example of Trump getting in his own way.

 

What purpose does goading the Fed for interest rate cuts do?.....Zero....they won't listen to you anyway on short rates......and at the margins, your lack of respect for Fed independence, is putting upward pressure on long rates.

[Investor20]

2 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Lying (which is Trumps go to starting point) about fentanyl as a reason for trade wars undermines any actual effort to fight against fentanyl.  They're 2 different fights and Trump is using one without any effort to do anything about it, as an excuse to act against the other. 

It is a priinciple Warren Buffett says he used all his life...to select only good people to do business with.
My question is a person selling Illicit drugs killing hundreds of thousands of children a good or a bad person?