Political Posts

[sleepydragon]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

 

We should never have been doing business with them, the second it became clear that doing business with them only strengthened the hand of the authoritarian government.

 

We should be doing business with like minded nations, and we should cease to do business with China even if it makes us poorer.

That will be a bad idea. Say, can you stop buying oil from Saudi?

[Sweet]

Saudi isn’t our global competitor trying to undermine our influence.  The prospects of a war with Saudi is very low.  In short they aren’t a threat but China is.

 

The Saudis provide a product we can’t currently live without.  We could ween ourselves off their oil over time.
 

China produces cheap products that could be produced by any number of developing countries who admire and want to cooperate with us.  No reason to be aiding their rise for them just to undermine our influence and threaten our way of life.

Edited August 1, 2022 by Sweet

[ICUMD]

1 hour ago, mcliu said:

The problem with China today is not so much it's model of government but that it's powerful enough to challenge US dominance.

Not sure about that.

 

As a superpower, there is an inherent responsibility to take care of all people.

 

Not that USA has done a great job in this regard, but it is a very culturally diverse country with many visible minorities in positions of power- business and politics.

 

OTOH, I'm highly skeptical that China's government will protect the interests of the non Chinese. Racial diversity in government and high level business is missing.  I think there is a problem with the China model.

[crs223]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

unnecessary and unforced error

IMO too soon to conclude “US won, China lost” on this issue.  Particularly when we don’t know what China is hoping to gain.

 

For example, perhaps there were other future visits planned by other leaders that will now not happen.

 

might be better to wait until 2032 before deciding if China is going about this all wrong.

 

Of course I hope that US is acting to strengthen itself in the long run.

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, Sweet said:

Saudi isn’t our global competitor trying to undermine our influence.  The prospects of a war with Saudi is very low.  In short they aren’t a threat but China is.

 

The Saudis provide a product we can’t currently live without.  We could ween ourselves off their oil over time.
 

China produces cheap products that could be produced by any number of developing countries who admire and want to cooperate with us.  No reason to be aiding their rise for them just to undermine our influence and threaten our way of life.

Actually, the USA does not need the Saudis at all. The US is energy Independent. This is different than in the 70‘s when the US needed the Saudis oil.

 

The Saudis need the US more so than the other way around, mostly to assure safe passage of the oil and trade. The Saudis are a huge exporter of oil producers and importer of pretty much everything else. The US deals with them as a frenemy to ensure stability (around is Israel) but also for the benefit of allies like Europe and Japan.

Edited August 1, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Gamecock-YT]

Nancy just looking for her next big stock trade

[Sweet]

9 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Actually, the USA does not need the Saudis at all. The US is energy Independent. This is different than in the 70‘s when the US needed the Saudis oil.

 

The Saudis need the US more so than the other way around, mostly to assure safe passage of the oil and trade. The Saudis are a huge exporter of oil producers and importer of pretty much everything else. The US deals with them as a frenemy to ensure stability (around is Israel) but also for the benefit of allies like Europe and Japan.

The US is not energy independent.

 

It produces too much light sweet crude that makes gasoline.  This grade is exported.

 

It doesn’t have enough of the heavy crude that makes diesel.  This grade  is imported from Saudi among others.

 

Counting the barrels only gives the impression it is energy independent, factor in the grade of that crude and it’s a very different story.

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

The US is not energy independent.

 

It produces too much light sweet crude that makes gasoline.  This grade is exported.

 

It doesn’t have enough of the heavy crude that makes diesel.  This grade  is imported from Saudi among others.

 

Counting the barrels only gives the impression it is energy independent, factor in the grade of that crude and it’s a very different story.

You can make Diesel out of sweet light crude, if you have to, it’s just not economical. Heavy sour crude is way cheaper than sweet crude so it makes sense to import heavy crude and export sweet crude.

 

But this is en economical consideration and not an energy security problem. 

Edited August 2, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Sweet]

Depends on API of crude produced, you aren’t getting diesel is the longer chain hydrocarbons aren’t there.

 

Much of US shale, especially more recently, is very high API and unsuitable for producing diesel.  It’s blended with the lower API grades:

 

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=30852

 

^ That’s several years ago, increasingly the oil just becomes lighter from Shale plays.

 

Saudi less and less important, and would be irrelevant if Canada could produce full tilt.  North America could be energy independent.

[Blugolds]

56% of imported oil to the US is that low API from the Canadian oil sands... and the problem isnt that Canada cant produce full tilt, they have increased exponentially and ship the surplus overseas...

 

The ability to run very sour crude requires different design/metallurgy at refineries. Increased maintenance and investment...investment that southern refineries may have not made because they didnt have to, if they run sweet feed. So even if the US bought every bit of sour feed the Canadians could give us, we couldnt run it without significant changes/investment made to those large refineries set up to run sweet. There are a few Northern refineries in the country that pull right off the pipeline and are built to run the cheap sour crude from Canada...a significant competitive advantage...pulling first off the pipeline, buying the cheapest feed available, that often doesnt have another buyer because the guys down south cant run it without upgrades. Its nasty stuff and if your design is to run API of 30+ you arent gonna be able to handle feed API of 10...enter the upgraders and synbit, western canadian select ,there are some more modern refiners here in the states that basically upgrade it themselves so they can take the nasty stuff. But there's a little more to it than canada just not producing full tilt. Not just metallurgy, additional process equipment/units, catalyst needs are significantly different etc.

 

"Canada's oil sands production is at a record 3.5 million barrels a day. Most of that is exported to use in the United States, but a growing number of barrels are transiting the country to the U.S. Gulf Coast, where it is then re-exported.

In 2021, Canadian exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast averaged more than 180,000 bpd, reaching nearly 300,000 bpd in December"

 

 "Production has increased about 3% on average per year through the last decade, and is expected to reach 3 million bpd in 2020, and possibly even 5 million bpd by 2030, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. To put these numbers into perspective, the total world output last year was roughly 85 million bopd, meaning that crude production from the oil sands will make a significant contribution to our current and future energy balance."

 

 

[Xerxes]

On 7/24/2022 at 1:35 PM, Xerxes said:

^^^ 

On a different note, I just bought a copy of “Peter the Great” and “Catherine the Great” books, written by Robert Massie.  

 

 

Received my +900 page copy of Peter the Great. The objective would be to be wiser 900 pages later. 
 

[Viking]

On 8/1/2022 at 10:06 AM, Spekulatius said:

The threats were a dump move by Xi Jinping, because now he is in Zugzwang (german chess expression). If he does nothing, he "loses face" as they say in China (big deal for a leader in China), but every move is a bad one...

 

Again, totally unnecessary and unforced error in practical terms, but not in Xi's ideology framework of course.

If you want to rattle China’s cage you do what Pelosi is doing today - visit Taiwan after you have been told to stay away. The US is clearly ‘crossing the line’ with this move. Xi is looking to get re-elected in the fall and he cannot look weak (which he does today). This is looking like the next chapter in China’s Century of Humiliation (from a Chinese perspective). I HOPE it is part of some larger, well thought out strategy. But i have little confidence in Biden/Democrats right now. 
 

What is the investment angle? I continue to be completely unable to comprehend what companies like Apple are thinking - they are all in on China today. And seemingly oblivious to the new direction China is pivoting towards the past couple of years (nationalist, communist and authoritative). The West’s relations with China are a slow moving train wreck… and what is happening in Taiwan today is throwing gasoline on the fire. 
—————

- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Century_of_humiliation

Edited August 2, 2022 by Viking

[Gregmal]

Everyone is overreacting, as usual. My man nails it here

 

 

[Sweet]

@Vikingi hope you aren’t blaming the US here?

 

The investment angle for me has long been stay away from China.

Edited August 2, 2022 by Sweet

[Spekulatius]

@Viking as I said before, this was an unforced error by China, which tried to intimidate and failed. I also came to the conclusion that Xi Jinping is tremendously overrated - he is a really poor leader for China.

 

Now it seems that China is stuck with him for likely for a long time, the downside of an autocratic regime. China is un-investible for me. Yes, you can try to make some quick buck here and there, playing some setups but to put money long term there seems irresponsible. Investing in Apple right now  isn't a whole lot better, they really need to diversify their manufacturing base away from China as quickly as possible, imo.

 

I do respect that others have a different view.

Edited August 2, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Viking]

54 minutes ago, Sweet said:

@Vikingi hope you aren’t blaming the US here?

 

The investment angle for me has long been stay away from China.

 

@Sweet no, of course in am not blaming the US. I am just trying to understand what is going on (from the very different perspective of each player). And how things are likely to play out in the future. And hopefully make some $ along the way

----------

Bottom line, Taiwan is a big, big deal for China. US is crossing a line... i am not sure why. Perhaps US is not happy with China's positioning with Russia and Ukraine war. What do you do if you want to get China's full attention? Visit Taiwan. The next move is now China's. What will they do? Escalate or not?

Edited August 2, 2022 by Viking

[Viking]

9 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

@Viking as I said before, this was an unforced error by China, which tried to intimidate and failed. I also came to the conclusion that Xi Jinping is tremendously overrated - he is a really poor leader for China.

 

Now it seems that China is stuck with him for likely for a long time, the downside of an autocratic regime.

 

@Spekulatius I think you might be right. I am 1/2 way through the video you posted on Xi (thanks for doing that). A real eye opener. It sure makes one appreciative of liberal democracies of the West (with all their faults).  

----------

From an investing perspective, China is in my too hard pile... especially given Xi's hard pivot to nationalism/communism/autocracy and the rising tensions with the West. Not to say there are not great investments there... just not a fit for me.  

Edited August 2, 2022 by Viking

[Spekulatius]

10 minutes ago, Viking said:

 

@Sweet no, of course in am not blaming the US. I am just trying to understand what is going on (from the very different perspective of each player). And how things are likely to play out in the future. And hopefully make some $ along the way

----------

Bottom line, Taiwan is a big, big deal for China. US is crossing a line... i am not sure why. Perhaps US is not happy with China's positioning with Russia and Ukraine war. What do you do if you want to get China's full attention? Visit Taiwan. The next move is now China's. What will they do? Escalate or not?    

The visit was planned for quite some time, initially planned in April and delayed because Pelosi got COVID-19. So, the Chinese knew about this for many many month (probably February). They didn't need to make it a big deal, they choose to.

Edited August 2, 2022 by Spekulatius

[formthirteen]

As a not-yet-retired five-star armchair general with combat experience from Desert Storm and later wars, my prediction is that Nancy just pulled the rug out from under Xi and China. Nobody (I) will be able to trust or respect a leader that is upset over visitors to a neighboring country. Oh wait, VIX still at 23.93. Forget what I said.

 

 

 

Edited August 2, 2022 by formthirteen

[Parsad]

On 7/30/2022 at 9:44 AM, Gregmal said:

Regardless of what’s going on, haven’t folks realized by now it’s a bad idea in general to make bets against basically everything blowing up? Essentially wagering that the powers that be will just stand by and let it happen? You’re already seeing it in the US….now folks wanna blame and be hostile that the bear trade is losing steam but bottom line is you should know better and when there’s intervention, like there always is, you don’t get to moan and groan about how you got screwed. 
 

Even more generally speaking, WTF is it with the bear people? Like there’s a million and one ways you can make easy money being long a whole variety of things. Yet for some reason these folks have this need to stand on a pedestal, screaming for attention, hoping to call a measly 10-25% down move? Which is not only challenging, but also difficult to time. So these experts and fund managers and doomsdayers aren’t even really trying to make money it seems, but simply get attention and walk around for a short while as “the guy who called it”….isn’t that kind of pathetic? 

 

And your upside is limited while the downside is unlimited!  It's just stupid.  Cheers!

[ICUMD]

China has been at 'Battle' with USA for 20-30 years on many fronts: economically, technologically and now with governance.

 

USA has just wisened up to this challenge. Pelosi's visit is a political test of boundaries and reaction.  Just like Russia is testing NATO resolve in the Ukraine.  

 

Give an authoritarian Muppet leader an inch and they will take Manhattan.  

[sleepydragon]

1 hour ago, formthirteen said:

As a not-yet-retired five-star armchair general with combat experience from Desert Storm and later wars, my prediction is that Nancy just pulled the rug out from under Xi and China. Nobody (I) will be able to trust or respect a leader that is upset over visitors to a neighboring country. Oh wait, VIX still at 23.93. Forget what I said.

 

 

 

to be fair, if Xi can have birthday party with Putin why can’t Pelosi have a tour with Taiwan? What’s the big deal. I feel China is acting up intentionally, to support someone own agenda of remaining in power — or some are certain fractions in China who want to escalate- maybe the defense companies

 

[Spekulatius]

Russian economy in bad shape:

 

[Spekulatius]

Russia running out of friends. Probably the next target for an invasion:

https://www.wsj.com/video/series/shelby-holliday/kazakhstan-unease-toward-russia-grows-as-ukraine-war-drags-on/2A4C2EC4-481D-401E-89E8-D94D1A185565

[Spekulatius]

Here is a translation of the controversial intelligence law from 2017 that was referenced in the recent DW feature posted above.

https://www.chinalawtranslate.com/en/national-intelligence-law-of-the-p-r-c-2017/
 

Key provisions see, to be 7 and 11. Those clearly state is that every Chinese citizen or organization has to cooperate with the national intelligence agency, be it in China or abroad.

 

Someone tell if I took crazy pills and TikTok or any other Chinese company would not sent information on US citizens to China if the Chinese intelligence service asks them to.