Short Taiwan?

[CorpRaider]

On 2/26/2022 at 12:11 PM, wabuffo said:

I think the war in Ukraine has unraveled the myth for the world to see with its own eyes that Russian (and Chinese militaries) relying mostly on conscripts with poor equipment and poor morale are somehow able to match US military capabilities and thus must be feared.  

 

If China tries to invade or even blockade Taiwan, assuming the Taiwanese people wish to remain independent - I don't believe the PLA air force and navy could subdue the Taiwanese & US military (and Japanese Self Defense Force).

 

Bill

 

 

That's right and I bet there's little chance Putin or Xi get accurate info on their troop numbers, readiness, or state of equipment.  No one is telling a negative truth if they're going to get put in the gulag.

Edited February 27, 2022 by CorpRaider

[Xerxes]

Not sure who this is. An American stuck in Kiev ?  
 

regardless of its legitimacy, it bears keeping in mind, annexation or semi-annexation means keeping the infrastructure intact among other things. A bit different than another country ripping another apart in a far flung corner of the world…

 

 

[hasilp89]

@Xerxes i saw this last night.  i had very mixed feelings and don't understand his motives.

1. I don't believe the US has went into Iraq, Afghanistan and destroyed electricity supply, water supply etc. Maybe i am wrong, but i think he is wrong there.

2. While i understand the strategy he explains and that it may not be portrayed by mainstream media (Russia wants to capture Ukraine and the Ukrainian Army so that it can install a puppet gvt and maintain stability) that doesn't make what Russia is doing right...

3. He condemns Zelensky for conscripting men to fight as despicable. Of course there are moral issues doing this. But when people want to defend their homeland against an invader what should they do? If he is going to discuss the morality of Zelnsky's actions shouldn't he consider Putin's also?  

 

 

[Xerxes]

^^^ i wouldnt put too much stock in his statements about the U.S. that is why I didnt meantion U.S. by name. The key point in mind is that it is a different situation given that it is intended to be a sort of partial annexation and/or a friendly regime. WIthout too many facts, the "current view" from the West is that Russian has been driven away by the Rebel Alliance. We just do not have any much information to go with. Fog of war is thick. And it is Day 4.

 

On a different note, I was listening to Fareed and Robert Gates. I agree with them that this miscalculation says something about Putin' state of mind. It may not have been a military miscalculation (Ukraine can be ripped apart conventionally if Moscow wish it to be) but it was a political miscalculation.

 

As far as U.S. is concerned, putting aside their idiotic politicians aside (and I include everyone here: left or right), their military and their level of professionalism deserves the outmost respect. That goes without saying. When I am bashing the U.S. i am talking the White House and the civilian retards that wrap themselves in the flag ... never their military or the men and women that signed up to serve their country (for good or bad). (well except Flynn maybe) 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

24 minutes ago, hasilp89 said:

@Xerxes i saw this last night.  i had very mixed feelings and don't understand his motives.

1. I don't believe the US has went into Iraq, Afghanistan and destroyed electricity supply, water supply etc. Maybe i am wrong, but i think he is wrong there.

2. While i understand the strategy he explains and that it may not be portrayed by mainstream media (Russia wants to capture Ukraine and the Ukrainian Army so that it can install a puppet gvt and maintain stability) that doesn't make what Russia is doing right...

3. He condemns Zelensky for conscripting men to fight as despicable. Of course there are moral issues doing this. But when people want to defend their homeland against an invader what should they do? If he is going to discuss the morality of Zelnsky's actions shouldn't he consider Putin's also?  

 

 

 

I don't know the full extent of what utilities the US did and didn't destroy in those places, but we did. 

 

The Tabqa dam was controlled by ISIS in Syria. It was supposedly on our "no hit list" because a strike could cause 10s of thousands of civilian deaths from flooding and lack of access to clean water downstream. It was attacked and ISIS blamed the US. We denied it. But an unexploded, US made bunker bomber was found in the ruins. 

 

In 2015, the US bombed a Doctor's Without Borders hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan. The military knew it was a hospital, had been in contact with Doctors Without Borders confirming the knowledge that it was a hospital and it's coordinates, but the US still bombed it anyways in belief that there was a target being treated inside. 

 

The US has does pretty heinous shit as part of its foreign policy, but it's ok because we're the US and they're just poor brown people and who is going to hold the US accountable for war crimes? 

 

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by TwoCitiesCapital

[Spekulatius]

@Xerxes I think he is right in terms of the Russian tactics. The Russian want to avoid too much collateral damage and they are likely trying to avoid major combat as well as going into heavy urban areas (which likely leads to heavy fighting and losses, both of their own as well as civilian). Urban combat also negates superiority in materials and technology, so as he stated, the Russian encircle cities and go around them.

 

I also think that there is no doubt the russian are winning this war.

 

However, then he rants about the Zelensky regime. I don't know much about the election process, but his claim is that Zelensky is illegitimate. and that's the first time I hear this. I think this guy is likely a Russian propaganda shill.

 

It is pretty clear that there is a propaganda war fought on both sides on social media. You see stuff like the "Ghost of Kiev" fighter ace from the Ukrainian side, allegedly shooting down several Russian air planes.  This is most likely made up. 

 

I think this Red pill guy is just another case of Russian disinformation on social media.

[Blugolds]

Guy has no idea what he is talking about…he is giving Russia way to much credit IMO, they are not avoiding civilian infrastructure, this is documented fact. And if they think that they are going to employ some strategy to get the Ukrainians to fall in line and become sub servant and under the Russian federation he is mistaken. IMO the Ukrainians will NEVER bow down to Putin. The damage is already done. Yes Russia could have completely obliterated Ukraine with missles, but would have had another problem on their hands. The world standing by while Ukraine fights its own battle is one thing, but if Russia would have completely inihilated Ukraine and turned it into a wasteland, genocide, I don’t know that the rest of the world would tolerate that, not that they are totally now.

 

Also keep in mind, he is comparing apples to oranges…when the US went into Iraq, or the Gulf war, remember Schwarzkopf’s explanation of the invasion, that was a multi national siege against a formidable foe that was dug in. That was a war and both sides were ready and knew it was coming and the reasons were clear. US and allies against the republican guard. This is Putin invading a non hostile, non threatening neighbor for no reason other than personal agenda. THAT is the difference. He could have also said, look Russia is a nuclear power, they could have just nuked Ukraine like the US did to Japan in WW2 but they didn’t! See Russia doesn’t really want to harm Ukraine they are being merciful! His comparison is a joke. Russia is doing what they can to take over, without forcing the rest of the world to get involved more than they already have. It’s like watching a school yard fight where a senior football player kicks the shit out of a skinny little freshmen that didn’t want to fight in the first place and beats him bloody but saying because the senior didn’t shoot him with a gun, he’s really a good guy because he ultimately wants to be friends with the freshmen after its over….I mean come on, he is delusional. 

 

Zelensky is doing what he can with what he has. Ukrainians are on board with him, the men/women WANT to fight. They are fighting for their lives and everything they hold dear, this guy makes it sound like Sleensky is using them as pawns, he has it all wrong and speaks as someone who has never been in the situation where you back is against the wall and you have nothing left but the kitchen sink. And I agree, he is condemning Zelensky with no regard for Putins actions.

 

I agree I think he is a Russian Shill, Ukraine has no chance against the full force of the Russian military, that’s just basic numbers etc, Russia has the resources to do what they want, its only a matter of time, but the Ukrainians are doing what they can to make it as difficult as they can on them. I also agree that the social media has a lot of fictitious stuff on it. The 80yr old Ukrainian lady giving the Russian solider sunflower seeds and saying she wants them to grow after his dead body is buried…I don’t believe that happened, the Ukranian road signs that have been changed to say F* off go home in each direction, I don’t believe that has happened. A lot of propaganda on both sides. Either way, its clear that Ukraine didn’t want this fight, did everything they could to prevent it, asked for help and are now being bullied and have a limited time left probably. Ukraine might be captured and put under rule of Russia but they wont accept it and it will be a long standing sore spot that they will never forget and probably continually resist for generations. Once you taste freedom its tough to go back to the alternative. Ukrainians have more freedom than Russians and that’s not something anybody would give up easily. We’ve all heard the adage “I’d rather die on my feet than live on my knees”. 

 

 

[Viking]

2 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Not sure who this is. An American stuck in Kiev ?  
 

regardless of its legitimacy, it bears keeping in mind, annexation or semi-annexation means keeping the infrastructure intact among other things. A bit different than another country ripping another apart in a far flung corner of the world…

 

 

What a bizarre take on what is going on. Walks and quacks like propoganda…so… He makes what Russia is doing sound so Disney (helped with lots of smiles). The reality, of course, is quite different. If what this guy says is true Ukraine would have rolled over by now. The fact it hasn’t and Putin felt it necessary to already offer peace talks with no conditions tells you all you need to know about what a disaster this has been for Russia. (Of course, The talks are a complete smoke screen on the part of Putin - meant to give the press in the West false hope… but i think people are finally starting to understand Putin’s playbook…). 
1.) I think it is pretty well understood that Russia’s initial plan was PutinKrieg into Kiev, kill the Ukraine leadership, and install a puppet regime. BIG FAIL. Yes, they have now moved on to plan ‘B’. 

2.) speed was everything for Russia.

- That was the best way to avoid the worst of the sanctions. The longer this goes on the more the rest of the world will respond - not good for Russia. The stuff we are seeing is unprecedented (see below for another example). And more is likely coming. Russia is already paying a huge price for its Ukraine catastrophe.

- every day that passes is another day Ukraine is able to re-arm itself via Poland. The arms from other countries are now rolling into Ukraine - and now in volume. This is all part of the Russian plan?

3.) Ukrainians do not see the Russians as liberators (that guns and killing thing…). That is such a BS take. Achieving military victory will likely come for the Russians (no idea.. and hope not). But good luck governing a country full of people who hate you and are armed to the teeth. And the longer the war drags on the deeper the hatred of all things Russia will only increase among the Ukrainian population.

4.) Putin has made President Zelensky a national hero in Ukraine. “I need ammunition, not a ride” is already one of the great quotes. Zelensky is giving his country leadership and hope. The guy has been a rock star. Not what Russia expected. Zelensky was voted in with +70% of the popular vote… and my guess is he is much more popular today. He has also become an inspiration for the rest of the world.

—————

Switzerland says it will freeze Russian assets, setting aside a tradition of neutrality.

- https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/world/europe/switzerland-russian-assets-freeze.html

 

GENEVA — Switzerland, a favorite destination for Russian oligarchs and their money, announced on Monday that it would freeze Russian financial assets in the country, setting aside a deeply rooted tradition of neutrality to join the European Union and a growing number of nations seeking to penalize Russia for the invasion of Ukraine.

 

After a meeting with the Swiss Federal Council, Switzerland’s president, Ignazio Cassis, said that the country would immediately freeze the assets of Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, Prime Minister Mikhail V. Mishustin and Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov, as well as all 367 individuals sanctioned last week by the European Union.

 

Switzerland said it was departing from its usual policy of neutrality because of “the unprecedented military attack by Russia on a sovereign European state,” but expressed a willingness to help mediate in the conflict. It also joined European neighbors in closing its airspace to Russian aircraft, except for humanitarian or diplomatic purposes. But said it would evaluate whether to join in subsequent E.U. sanctions on a case-by-case basis.

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by Viking

[Xerxes]

Viking, the point of my posting that video, the portion that matters is about the fog of war. I actually did not listen when he talks about Zelensky.

 

Whether it is under the guise of the Golden Horde, Grand Duchy of Moscow, House of Romanov, USSR and now 'modern' era, the Slavic desire of for an empire is always there as they cast their wary eyes on the West. If not Putin, it would have been someone else. In my view, Ukrain leaning toward West is reaction to Russia domineering the relationship, if there was no Russia, it would be Ukraine the very nexus of that empire.

 

West simplifies this into+ > Putin didnt like how the cold war ended, rememner his comment about it being the greatest tragedy, he wants to undo the end of the war.

 

Nothing is wrong with NATO expanding to East, but like everything else in life there are consequence, and at the end of the day it is the normal everyday people like you, me and Ukrainian or Russian that pay the price.

 

I live in Iran during the 8-year war as a kid, so have a different perspective than the usual view of West-is-right-everybody-else-is-wrong (not saying that you are saying that)

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

The military conflict aside, this is an interesting demonstration how owning the world's most important reserve and trade currency, controlling important elements of the financial system (SWIFT) and creating unity with other allies allows the US to use a weapon of financial mass destruction without ever firing a shot.

Edited February 28, 2022 by Spekulatius

[mcliu]

39 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I live in Iran during the 8-year war as a kid, so have a different perspective than the usual view of West-is-right-everybody-else-is-wrong (not saying that you are saying that)

Western hypocrisy. The US has done plenty of sketchy shit and killed a ton of civilians (probably more than Russia in the last 20 years) but so far no sanctions, no flight cancellation, no global condemnation and no asset freezes/seizure of US leadership.

 

https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/human/civilians

[Xerxes]

@Viking

Remember this Saudi enterpreunur & businessman from the 1990s. This is from 1993, few years after John Rambo and him fought side by side in Afghanistan as Rebel Alliance against the might of the Soviet Union.

 

We do not need more of these future 'crazies' with/or/without beard being created. And we need new Rambo movies even less. The last was one was total garbage.

 

[nsx5200]

On 2/25/2022 at 9:03 PM, LC said:

To allude to what Greg said earlier I think the best hedges are good undervalued  companies that would be a decent investment on their own, AND also would benefit from whatever situation you are trying to bet against. So you give yourself multiple ways to potentially win under various scenarios.

 

Did I hear somebody say Coke, Berkshire, or Costco?  (maybe not (too) undervalued... )

[Peregrine]

Didn't realize that there was a topic on this already. But I'll repost this from the Sberbank thread (along with some added thoughts):

 

For those comparing what's happening now to what might happen between China and Taiwan, I think there's a big difference:

 

Ukraine has been leaning toward the West for a long time because of what they foresee as better economic opportunities. China does not have this problem with Taiwan...in fact, the reverse is true.

 

It's economic strength that draws countries closer to each other. Russia, unfortunately, has a weak economy and is increasingly seeing former satellite states forge closer bonds with the West. I can understand why Putin, who grew up in the Cold War and sees things through black and white dichotomies, feels increasing anxiety.

 

Despite their antipathy for the Chinese communist party, most moderate Taiwanese view unification as inevitable. Moreover, it may well in the end by largely a symbolic gesture as China's economy grows larger and larger and draws Taiwan closer to its orbit.

 

I visited Taipei a few years ago and was astounded by how antiquated their society was - their banking system was still pen and paper, the population is old and in the words of the locals, the economy had been in stasis for 20 years. The contrast is night and day compared with China's Tier 1 cities. Taiwan's young also sees this and are making conscious choices to move to China in search of better jobs. 

[mcliu]

57 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

I visited Taipei a few years ago and was astounded by how antiquated their society was - their banking system was still pen and paper, the population is old and in the words of the locals, the economy had been in stasis for 20 years. The contrast is night and day compared with China's Tier 1 cities. Taiwan's young also sees this and are making conscious choices to move to China in search of better jobs. 

Thanks. That's an accurate take. I think Taiwan's stagnation also coincides with China's rise. Taiwan became a much less attractive investment for foreigners & even locals.

 

I think despite economic integration, younger Taiwanese seem less politically aligned with the one-China position than their parents, which is reflected in election results, frequent DPP wins over KMT. Overall I agree, integration is inevitable, hopefully peaceful, but there is risk of a confrontation. Timing is uncertain.

 

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, Peregrine said:

Didn't realize that there was a topic on this already. But I'll repost this from the Sberbank thread (along with some added thoughts):

 

For those comparing what's happening now to what might happen between China and Taiwan, I think there's a big difference:

 

Ukraine has been leaning toward the West for a long time because of what they foresee as better economic opportunities. China does not have this problem with Taiwan...in fact, the reverse is true.

 

It's economic strength that draws countries closer to each other. Russia, unfortunately, has a weak economy and is increasingly seeing former satellite states forge closer bonds with the West. I can understand why Putin, who grew up in the Cold War and sees things through black and white dichotomies, feels increasing anxiety.

 

Despite their antipathy for the Chinese communist party, most moderate Taiwanese view unification as inevitable. Moreover, it may well in the end by largely a symbolic gesture as China's economy grows larger and larger and draws Taiwan closer to its orbit.

 

I visited Taipei a few years ago and was astounded by how antiquated their society was - their banking system was still pen and paper, the population is old and in the words of the locals, the economy had been in stasis for 20 years. The contrast is night and day compared with China's Tier 1 cities. Taiwan's young also sees this and are making conscious choices to move to China in search of better jobs. 

How many Taiwanese do you know? The ones I know don't think reunification is inevitable at all. They would never want to live in China. They move to the USA not China, if they can.

[zippy1]

Maybe you all can look at the last election's result to gauge what Taiwanese think.
If TSMC, MediaTek and a host of Taiwanese companies can make the most advanced semiconductors in the world, do you think the Taiwanese are that dumb to not notice what happened in Hong Kong?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Taiwanese_presidential_election

[Peregrine]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

How many Taiwanese do you know? The ones I know don't think reunification is inevitable at all. They would never want to live in China. They move to the USA not China, if they can.

 

Many. Though the ones I know lean more toward the affluent/business class, so perhaps there's some innate bias there.

[Peregrine]

50 minutes ago, zippy1 said:

Maybe you all can look at the last election's result to gauge what Taiwanese think.
If TSMC, MediaTek and a host of Taiwanese companies can make the most advanced semiconductors in the world, do you think the Taiwanese are that dumb to not notice what happened in Hong Kong?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Taiwanese_presidential_election

 

Like I said in my response to you in the other thread, I have no doubt that all what you say is true.

 

There's an economic reality:

 

China's GDP: $US 15 trillion

Taiwan GDP: $US 0.66 trillion

 

And even more relevant:

 

Shenzhen GDP/capita: $USD 23k

Taiwan GDP/capita: $USD 20k

 

In a little more than 30 years, a marshland transformed into one of the biggest and most economically vibrant cities in the world and surpassed Taiwan by both GDP per capita and total GDP.

 

Agreed that Taiwan has a vibrant semiconductor industry but how many can they employ? Semiconductor companies involve huge CAPEX with very little labor. TSMC only employs ~50k people. It's the future of the young people that decides the future direction of a country.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Peregrine

[zippy1]

31 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

 

Many. Though the ones I know lean more toward the affluent/business class, so perhaps there's some innate bias there.

Would it be ok to ask you how many years ago the conversations took place?

I think the attitude shifted a great deal over the past couple years.  
With the current geopolitical situation, many Taiwanese companies are moving back to Taiwan.
Due to Covid-19, most of the companies in the Hsinchu Science park had record earnings last year.
Engineering students are now given job offers 18 months before the graduation.
The job market is excellent for engineers. Many companies have to boost their pay just to keep the current staff.
Maybe your view reflects what the attitude was before 2018.  But I don't think it reflect current attitude any more.
 

Edited March 1, 2022 by zippy1

[Peregrine]

2 minutes ago, zippy1 said:

Would it be ok to ask you how many years ago the conversations took place?

I think the attitude shifted a great deal over the past couple years.  
With the current geopolitical situation, many Taiwanese companies are moving back to Taiwan.
Due to Covid-19, most of the companies in the Hsinchu Science park had record earnings last year.
Engineering students are now given job offers 18 months before the graduation.
The job market is excellent for engineers. Many companies have to boost their pay just to keep the current staff.
Maybe your view reflects what the attitude was before 2018.  But I don't think it reflect current attitude any more.
 

 

2018 - visited Taipei. Had never gone before so was quite stunned to see how antiquated the city was, especially given my preconceived notions about how advanced and modern Taiwan was.

[zippy1]

8 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

 

2018 - visited Taipei. Had never gone before so was quite stunned to see how antiquated the city was, especially given my preconceived notions about how advanced and modern Taiwan was.

Every Chinese friends told me that, which is what we like actually.

[Peregrine]

5 minutes ago, zippy1 said:

Every Chinese friends told me that, which is what we like actually.

 

It wasn't just antiquated in a quaint way. I was literally shocked to see banking being done by pen and paper and it took me 1 hr to exchange 500 USD into Taiwan dollars in the year 2018.

[zippy1]

1 minute ago, Peregrine said:

 

It wasn't just antiquated in a quaint way. I was literally shocked to see banking being done by pen and paper and it took me 1 hr to exchange 500 USD into Taiwan dollars in the year 2018.

 The banking system indeed is not the competitive part of the economy.  
Many banks still use paper-copy passbooks. 
Don't ask me why they do that.       

[fareastwarriors]

You guys not only people thinking it:

https://www.quora.com/Why-are-Taiwanese-cities-so-shabby