Best Investment Idea(s) for 2022

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, fareastwarriors said:

I can't help but to like Swedish Match more and more everyday.

 

https://www.swedishmatch.com/Investors/The-share/Shares-outstanding/

see this mentioned alot - dont see an investment idea thread....could be worth starting one...... any write ups you could point me towards that nail the essense of the thesis.....have to say a nicotine/tobacco company thats growing volumes like SWMA are has to catch your eye.....any thoughts on spin dynamics of the cigar biz later this year....simplifies the smokeless nicotine remain co company story I presume? 

Edited February 23, 2022 by changegonnacome

[KJP]

6 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

see this mentioned alot - dont see an investment idea thread....could be worth starting one...... any write ups you could point me towards that nail the essense of the thesis.....have to say a nicotine/tobacco company thats growing volumes like SWMA are has to catch your eye.....any thoughts on spin dynamics of the cigar biz later this year....simplifies the smokeless nicotine remain co company story I presume? 

 

Here's one:  https://sinstockpapi.substack.com/p/swma?utm_source=url

[gfp]

Jesus.  I had read Match King years ago but I had no idea this was the company behind these cigar wrappers I find littered all over the street in major cities.  Imagine a cigar business that is booming because the cigars are so cheap and so shitty that virtually every customer cuts them open, empties the contents out, and puts something else in the wrapper to smoke. (and promptly throws the plastic wrapper on the street)

[changegonnacome]

6 hours ago, KJP said:

 

Here's one:  https://sinstockpapi.substack.com/p/swma?utm_source=url

Cheers

[BG2008]

On 12/27/2021 at 5:40 PM, BG2008 said:

I was going to post something similar.  @gregmal absolutely called the Sunbelt Multi-family trends in 2021.  Holy crap.  I wish I had paid more attention to it.  I would love to hear what other people think 2022 key themes will be.  2020 was obviously covid beneficiaries. 2021 was a slaughter for the likes of $PTON etc.  On the RE side, I think $CLPR is poised to perform as the rent increases gets passed through via quarterly new leasing and lease renewals.  I think 2022 is finally the NYC recovery year.  NYC office may catch a bid as well.  Maybe? 

 

$FRPH remains my biggest position and one of my favorite as it benefits from infrastructure bill passage, pricing power in the aggregate royalty, Bryant Street should be fully stabilized and they should print a decent GAAP net income number of stabilization as well.  Their Greenville, SC (Sunbelt MF) should also stabilize well and print a really good GAAP net income number.  It is low leverage, good management team, and a sleep well at night.  Inflation will be very good for them.  Recession, they will weather it well.  Just solid all around.  

 

I like $PTON in small sizes, 1%.  I like $AMBP, it's boring packaging with lots of growth.  Potential to double in 2-3 years.  The $AMBP 5 year warrants are interesting as well. 

 

I have shorted some  TLT (20yr US Treasury) as I think inflation will eventually cause rates to go higher.  It's more of a hedge due to my large RE exposure.  

 

I think $HQI remains one of the more fascinating picks due to the jockey.  

 

$INDT trades close to NAV.  So it is not pound the table anymore.  But it will be interesting to see what the CEO/Chairman combo can do.  

 

TLT chart - Imagine buying US Treasuries and losing 16% in 3-4 months? 

 

Edited April 8, 2022 by BG2008

[Gregmal]

9 minutes ago, BG2008 said:

Imagine buying US Treasuries

+1. Getting what they deserve. What kind of idiot buys this stuff? Oh yea, the smart money. 

[scorpioncapital]

Well that's the thing I was curious about the 80s too. When you could buy a 30 year treasury for 10% interest or 14% how did the buyer know that was not gonna be a loss and go even higher?  After all if inflation was 12% and rate was 14% you'd still be only making 2% real return. Sometimes I don't understand gov bonds so i stay out of the market )

 

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, scorpioncapital said:

Well that's the thing I was curious about the 80s too. When you could buy a 30 year treasury for 10% interest or 14% how did the buyer know that was not gonna be a loss and go even higher?  After all if inflation was 12% and rate was 14% you'd still be only making 2% real return. Sometimes I don't understand gov bonds so i stay out of the market )

 

Yes, what people forget about buying 18% long dated treasuries in 1980 is that inflation was 13% and rapidly rising. So buying long dated treasuries was a bet on normalization. If you had done the same thing in Weimar or Argentina before the hyperinflation, you would have gotten wiped out.

 

In fact you can read up on Stinnes who borrowed all he could pre hyperinflation in Germany at what seamed to be high interest rates. He bought companies (partly private and partly public) and become the largest conglomerate for a short time in Germany from borrowed money that become worthless.

 

So people who claim that buying treasuries in 1980 forget that there was risk in that as well. Buying treasuries is essentially a bet on political stability and fiscal responsibility. They are not really risk free in that sense.

Edited April 8, 2022 by Spekulatius

[fareastwarriors]

Anyone want to update their picks given everything that happened?

[formthirteen]

Investing in myself and building a better life. Falling knives everywhere.

Edited May 24, 2022 by formthirteen

[Gregmal]

How one reacts to falling prices says a lot about where they are in their life. Fear or optimism? If you have a long horizon or are already in good financial shape it should be optimism and excitement. If you’re on the edge or not totally stable from a financial standpoint, it’s typically fear. 

[Viking]

2 hours ago, fareastwarriors said:

Anyone want to update their picks given everything that happened?

With the severe sell off we have seen in stocks and bonds over the first 5 months of the year this is a good time to step back take stock. Most importantly, WHAT ARE THE BEST INVESTMENT IDEAS FOR 2022 as of today?

 

There has been so much carnage in so many sectors i currently don’t have a single ‘best idea’ pick. Rather, i think this is likely a good time to be expanding equity exposure in a bunch of areas. Not ‘all in’. But a great time to buy companies and sectors that are getting killed. Example today? GOOG. Last week? US financials. CRM is back at 52 week lows. Lots of solid opportunities if someone has a 3-5 years holding period.
 

As of today i am 40% stocks and 60% cash. I am in no hurry to get to 100% invested. 

Edited May 24, 2022 by Viking

[sleepydragon]

My investment theory: the more prices fall, the more I buy.

In practice: the more I buy, the more prices fall.

 

[Parsad]

31 minutes ago, Viking said:

With the severe sell off we have seen in stocks and bonds over the first 5 months of the year this is a good time to step back take stock. Most importantly, WHAT ARE THE BEST INVESTMENT IDEAS FOR 2022 as of today?

 

 

Overstock.com!  $450M cash sitting on the books.  Will do about $2.5B in revenues with a 3-4% net profit margin.  $1.05B valuation.  Hardly any debt.  Means a P/E of about 7-10 times. 

 

Medici Ventures (blockchain portfolio) is given zero value...free call option.  Could be worth anywhere from $750M to $4-5B depending on how they grow and are monetized.  tZero alone could grow to a $50B business over the next 10-15 years!  Pelion Ventures is now managing the Medici assets as the Medici Fund...an LP in which Overstock.com is the sole LP.  Cheers!

[Gamecock-YT]

15 hours ago, fareastwarriors said:

Anyone want to update their picks given everything that happened?

 

We're not even midway through the year. 

[Viking]

As we think about investing ideas for 2023, i thought it would be interesting to bring forward the same thread from the start of 2022. Lots to learn. Druckenmiller’s advice is especially useful at this time of the year: be inquisitive… and open minded. 

[StevieV]

On 12/28/2021 at 7:46 AM, StevieV said:

 

Second APO.  I have been an APO holder for a number of years along with the other alts.  APO has moved up nicely, but lagged some others such as BX and ARES.  I think it has a lagged a bit because of the uncertainty surrounding the pivot caused by the Athene acquisition.  I was and still am a bit uncertain about the acquisition myself, but I think they laid out the case for it pretty well during the Investor Day.

 

As you point out, both somewhat cheap and growing nicely.  I think they'll grow earnings in the mid-teens percentages.  Should do pretty well even without a re-rate.  I also expect a bit of a re-rate.

 

 

I had forgotten about this thread.  APO was negative 12% for the year, before dividends.  Not great, but several percentage points better than the S&P.  Also, the best of the peer group - better than BX, CG, KKR, ARES, BAM.

 

Not the right sector for '22.

[backtothebeach]

On 1/3/2022 at 3:42 PM, backtothebeach said:

Not a "best", but a speculative idea: Leoni (LEO - IBIS, Germany)

 

Recovering, highly indebted supplier for the car industry, hampered by supply chain issues.

 

If they did not go bust during Covid I guess the risk of them going bust is very small.

 

I'm biased, because after the financial crises 2009 I rode them up from 7.50 to 60, finally sold at 40.

 

Currently a little above 10, after a pop on high volume today. I have a small position entered at ~$13, currently under water. I think this one could get volatile on good news and print above $20 in the next couple of years.

 

On 1/3/2022 at 7:20 PM, Spekulatius said:

...

 

I think Norma NOEJ.DE may be an easier bet, same idea, but much better balance sheet and a better business. I do think that the automobile suppliers are a good place to look for a turnaround plays in 2022.

 

FWIW, my speculative idea LEO.DE lost 50% in 2022. So did NOEJ.DE.

 

Luckily I sold my small LEO.DE position half way through the drop in a portfolio cleanup.

 

Nothing but bad news for Leoni, falling sales, rising losses, now possiblly having to litigate a failed attempt to sell their cable business to lower debt. Their P/S ratio is 0.03. I suppose this means either massive upside in a turnaround, or that the market is anticipating massive dilution or wiping out shareholders in a restructuring.

Edited January 2, 2023 by backtothebeach

[Spekulatius]

On 1/12/2022 at 9:23 AM, Spekulatius said:

JST.DE (truck trailer etc) seems like a great business, but it is also somewhat expensive. It appears they dominate their niche.

 

I think SHA.DE (Schaeffler) may be a better bet than LEONI risk adjusted. Somewhat levered but profitable. Family controlled which could be an issue. Statistically cheap, but hasn't been a great performer since IPO.

@Aurel RIP Leoni:

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/sanierungskonzept-leoni-aktie-fast-85-prozent-im-minus-leoni-soll-nach-kapitalschnitt-von-der-boerse-genommen-werden-12305476

 

[Aurel]

26 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

@Aurel RIP Leoni:

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/sanierungskonzept-leoni-aktie-fast-85-prozent-im-minus-leoni-soll-nach-kapitalschnitt-von-der-boerse-genommen-werden-12305476

 

Well..I'm glad that all companies above ended up in the too-hard-pile pretty quickly..

 

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Aurel said:

Well..I'm glad that all companies above ended up in the too-hard-pile pretty quickly..

 

JST is a pretty good business, but I would like to buy it cheaper.

[Aurel]

17 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

JST is a pretty good business, but I would like to buy it cheaper.

Me too. It's been on my watchlist for quite some time. I like the easy-to-understand business model and the down-to-earth management.

I think if you get the shares around 40 it's pretty cheap. But I still haven't made up my mind to buy anything, or had other stuff to buy.