Have We Hit The Top?

[Red Lion]

1 hour ago, rogermunibond said:

western, educated, industrialized, rich democracies.

You don’t have to go so far back into the history books to see other examples. eg the opium wars. 

[Castanza]

7 hours ago, Malmqky said:

 

 

Of course the black market wouldn’t be eliminated, but the international drug trade/organized crime portion would be destroyed/crippled. 

 

Addicts would just buy the cheaper, easier, cleaner, better and legal product. The goal is to make it so there’s no money to be made by manufacturing/reselling on a massive scale.

 

Yes people would still resell in small quantities and stuff, I meant the government shouldn’t be selling to non-addicts. Impossible to buy from government (prescription needed maybe?).

 

This is a fanciful thought that I don’t actually think is the complete answer, but worth discussing.

I think just legalizing it and allowing the free market to come up with solutions etc. makes the most sense. I think if you go a step further and try to regulate it (in the context you mentioned) that it just creates another black market. 
 

There is always going to be a subset of people not taking drugs now that will try them if legal. But I think the positives outweigh the negatives from a societal level. 
 

@Spekulatius the majority of the people who take heavy thugs now would do so whether they are legal or not. If heroin is legal tomorrow there would be a percentage of people who will try it….but by and large most would not. I mean would you? Drugs are not difficult to get as it is. I mean we can’t even keep them out of super max prisons. 
 

No real good solution imo…it’s a sad aspect of life, but I think some approaches offer better outcomes or paths forward for those individuals who go down that road. That’s probably the best we can do. 

Edited November 28 by Castanza

[rogermunibond]

1 hour ago, Red Lion said:

You don’t have to go so far back into the history books to see other examples. eg the opium wars. 

yeah I take that back.  The UNODC 2024 report has a lot of data (not all of it good or even up to date but it’s the best available).  Heroin addiction is a big problem in Iran, Afghanistan, Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe. Opioids is a much bigger issue in US, UK, Canada, Australia, Sweden, Egypt, Nigeria, India, Pakistan. 60 million opioid/opiate addicts globally. 
 

[changegonnacome]

On 11/26/2024 at 4:26 PM, changegonnacome said:

realize that Mr.Trump is the most PR president that has ever held office (i mean they all are)......actually moving the ball down the field in a real sense rarely comes into it........what matters is the headline, the photo, the soundbite and the perception of promises made, promises kept.........give him a public 'win' that can go on the front page of the WSJ, NYT or trend on X for his supporters to cooo over

 

Voila......and just like that.........the Southern Border has been 'fixed', the migrant crisis ended....all in a phone call with the President of Mexico......and effective immediately! Wonderful to hear it.

 

https://nypost.com/2024/11/27/us-news/trump-says-mexicos-president-has-agreed-to-stop-migrants-from-crossing-the-us-border-illegally/

 

“Mexico will stop people from going to our Southern Border, effective immediately,” the 45th president said.

 

“She has agreed to stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border,” he added. 

 

 

[mcliu]

Something got really fucked up in the US/Canada the last 20 years.. Maybe if we can figure out what that is, we can reverse it.

Even if you can get back to the 80s/90s/2000 levels, that would be a massive win for society.

 

 

[Spooky]

9 hours ago, mcliu said:

Something got really fucked up in the US/Canada the last 20 years.. Maybe if we can figure out what that is, we can reverse it.

Even if you can get back to the 80s/90s/2000 levels, that would be a massive win for society.

 

 

My guess is the legal mass over prescription of Oxycontin. It lead to many people getting addicted to opiates. It's a terrible tragedy.

[cubsfan]

14 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Voila......and just like that.........the Southern Border has been 'fixed', the migrant crisis ended....all in a phone call with the President of Mexico......and effective immediately! Wonderful to hear it.

 

https://nypost.com/2024/11/27/us-news/trump-says-mexicos-president-has-agreed-to-stop-migrants-from-crossing-the-us-border-illegally/

 

“Mexico will stop people from going to our Southern Border, effective immediately,” the 45th president said.

 

“She has agreed to stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border,” he added. 

 

 

 

Finally the adults are in charge and the nationwide nightmare ends.

[Spekulatius]

Problem was already fixed anyways - illegal border crosses were way down in October:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-mexico-border-migrant-crossings-reach-new-biden-era-low/

[cubsfan]

10 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Problem was already fixed anyways - illegal border crosses were way down in October:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-mexico-border-migrant-crossings-reach-new-biden-era-low/

 

Nothing but a head fake by the losing party. 

 

Americans didn't fall for it.

[Spekulatius]

12 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Nothing but a head fake by the losing party. 

 

Americans didn't fall for it.

You claim the data isn’t correct? I believe the dems have been tone def to illegal immigration for too long and the pivot was too late.

Trump is great at propaganda. He will sell the same economy that we have right now as the greatest ever (which it is) and MAGA folks will believe it after thinking the same state of affairs was shitty a one.

 

 

[cubsfan]

2 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

You claim the data isn’t correct? I believe the dems have been tone def to illegal immigration for too long and the pivot was too late.

Trump is great at propaganda. He will sell the same economy that we have right now as the greatest ever (which it is) and MAGA folks will believe it after thinking the same state of affairs was shitty a one.

 

 

 

We all know that the very brief shutdown of the border was a political stunt by Harris to win the election.

 

Take it from the people closest to the problem: US Border Agents

 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/border-patrol-morale-through-roof-after-trumps-re-election-union-says

 

They finally get to enforce the laws and keep the country safe again.

[Red Lion]

5 hours ago, Spooky said:

 

My guess is the legal mass over prescription of Oxycontin. It lead to many people getting addicted to opiates. It's a terrible tragedy.

And then the rug got pulled and they all switched to heroin. And then the heroin got contaminated with fentanyl. All over the last 12 years. 

[Lazarus]

The drug problem is tough. The govt will never win the war on drugs. They can't even keep drugs out of prison - a space where everyone going in and out gets searched, mail gets searched, and inmates have no privacy. Yet you can still find all sorts of drugs in prison. 

 

Legalizing it to destroy the black market and eliminate the crime associated with it makes a lot of sense (since the war on drugs can't be won), but then you have the downside of society-sponsored addiction, ruined lives and overdoses. And if the govt doesn't offer some drugs (fentanyl, etc.) those will still be offered on the black market. You can't win. 

 

The Switzerland model is worth a try, but keep in mind that Switzerland is a small and relatively homogenous society of very responsible and organized people. I spent a year there recently and couldn't get over how rigidly organized the Swiss can be. Swiss drug addicts are probably more organized and reliable than the average north american non-addict. I'm exaggerating a bit, but only a bit...

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

Finally the adults are in charge and the nationwide nightmare ends.

Not sure you picked up my sarcasm….or the post above it that pre-dated Trump doing exactly what I said he would (telling the public something is fixed when nothing in a

practical & quantifiable way has changed at all )….but it goes to prove my point…truth social or X posts are the new governing…the tribalism inherent in the country (on both sides) means simply telling your ‘team’ that you’ve fixed something…results in them swallowing it …..forget the post-truth era….we are living in the political vibes era….your party/president is in power and everything is automatically great again (data be damned)….your party/president isn’t in power and the place has gone to hell in a hand basket again (no matter what the data says)…democrat and republican diehards are as guilty of this as each other..it’s quite the trick they’ve pulled the boys and girls in D.C.….turning each parties supporters against each other like rabid dogs….is a genius move for politicians that now run on clicks and vibes…versus actually doing stuff. 

 

 

[Spooky]

New article in the FT about Fentanyl - US Fentanyl deaths have been falling for almost a year: https://on.ft.com/49aOdag

 

[cubsfan]

10 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

Not sure you picked up my sarcasm….or the post above it that pre-dated Trump doing exactly what I said he would (telling the public something is fixed when nothing in a

practical & quantifiable way has changed at all )….but it goes to prove my point…truth social or X posts are the new governing…the tribalism inherent in the country (on both sides) means simply telling your ‘team’ that you’ve fixed something…results in them swallowing it …..forget the post-truth era….we are living in the political vibes era….your party/president is in power and everything is automatically great again (data be damned)….your party/president isn’t in power and the place has gone to hell in a hand basket again (no matter what the data says)…democrat and republican diehards are as guilty of this as each other..it’s quite the trick they’ve pulled the boys and girls in D.C.….turning each parties supporters against each other like rabid dogs….is a genius move for politicians that now run on clicks and vibes…versus actually doing stuff. 

 

 

 

I totally got your sarcasm.

 

I'm delighted with the outcome. Under the Biden admin, the country was headed off the cliff - but everyday Americans have voted to save what is special about the USA. The southern border will be fixed quickly as any self-respecting government should have done from Day 1. Trump has his work cut out for him after all the lying from the media & administration about "how wonderful life is for the average citizen". Stunning and well deserved defeat for the Harris agenda.

[Junior R]

Markets are up over 6%+ at the index level in Nov alone lol...Even though I think we are overpriced ...I think this could continue into Dec and Jan might be the time where reality kicks in

[SharperDingaan]

The drug problem has always existed, everywhere in the world. It was tolerated 'cause it was fairly small scale, controlled by organised crime in return for keeping it 'contained', and was fairly easily kept out of the media of the day as few wanted to talk about it.  Quite a bit different today.

 

Make small quantities legal, and you clear a lot of court time for the more serious crimes. Costs vs benefits. Safe injection, clean and free drugs, and you save a lot of lives. Compassion vs Not In My Back Yard (NIMBY). Better social supports and you will have fewer addicts. Fix vs cover up the problem.

 

For those caught, the traditional solution has been an automatic draft into the military; mercenaries or reservists determined by the seriousness of the crime. Nations need cannon fodder, addicts have a place to go, hard-cases end up either dead or very good (both useful), and prisons have space again.

 

The solutions are there ...  societies? ... not so much.

 

SD      

Edited December 1 by SharperDingaan

[Castanza]

7 hours ago, Junior R said:

Markets are up over 6%+ at the index level in Nov alone lol...Even though I think we are overpriced ...I think this could continue into Dec and Jan might be the time where reality kicks in

RSP and small caps  are playing catch up this past month to the S&P500. 

[Dinar]

6 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

The drug problem has always existed, everywhere in the world. It was tolerated 'cause it was fairly small scale, controlled by organised crime in return for keeping it 'contained', and was fairly easily kept out of the media of the day as few wanted to talk about it.  Quite a bit different today.

 

Make small quantities legal, and you clear a lot of court time for the more serious crimes. Costs vs benefits.

Safe injection, clean and free drugs, and you save a lot of lives. Compassion vs Not In My Back Yard (NIMBY).

Better social supports and you will have fewer addicts. Fix vs cover up the problem.

 

For those caught, the traditional solution has been an automatic draft into the military; mercenaries or reservists determined by the seriousness of the crime. Nations need cannon fodder, addicts have a place to go, hard-cases end up either dead or very good (both useful), and prisons have space again.

 

The solutions are there ...  societies? ... not so much.

 

SD      

Based on what exactly?  Does Singapore have more drug problem than the Netherlands?

[rkbabang]

No one should have to steal or commit crimes against innocent people to buy drugs. You should be able to buy heroin or Coke by the pound at Walmart and let the problem take care of itself. If you want to prohibit something, maybe prohibit the police or ambulances from carrying Narcan in the vehicles with them.

[mcliu]

On 11/29/2024 at 8:32 AM, Spooky said:

New article in the FT about Fentanyl - US Fentanyl deaths have been falling for almost a year: https://on.ft.com/49aOdag

 

Thanks for the article.

I'm surprised there's not more focus on the # of addicts, not just deaths. It's likely millions are dysfunctional from drugs. So many personal tragedies and massively damaging to society.

I think there's enough positive correlation between availability and usage that it might be good policy to crackdown instead of loosen drug supply.

The goal should be to reduce addiction not to reduce deaths because less addicts will result in less deaths anyways.

There are several plausible theories as to what’s happening. One is simple: there is growing evidence that the supply of fentanyl is down, and when there’s less fentanyl around, fewer people die. Data from Ohio shows deaths rose and are now falling in almost perfect lockstep with supply. My analysis of national data shows the same pattern, and I also find that just like the deaths, the dip in supply started in the east.

 

Why would supply be down? A branch of Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel thought to have been one of the largest fentanyl suppliers has reportedly banned its production in a bid to ease pressure from law enforcement. There is some scepticism as to how real or lasting this stance will be, given the economic incentives, but for now the dip in circulation looks real.

[Red Lion]

I've been trimming some big winners in my 401k and raised 40% cash which is currently parked in very short duration T-bills. I also raised some cash in taxable accounts by doing a cash-out refi on an investment property at 60% LTV (at 6.6% APR on a 30 year mortgage). It's been a good several years, and so far I'm up 36% in 2024 after a great 2022 and 2023. 

 

I'm honestly not market timing, but unfortunately my favorite investments are all priced, if not for perfection, at least for an excellent future, and I have a quite concentrated stock portfolio. I'm not a full time investor, although it feels like my most important job these days. I plan to spend time doing more research and deploy most of this capital opportunistically. 

 

I'm sure I'll find something more attractive than T-bills in fairly short order. If I don't find something compelling, I'll probably get back to selling short duration puts while I continue looking. 

 

Right now my largest publicly traded positions are JOE, APO, OWL, BTI, PM, CPT, OXY/WT, but my stock allocation is the lowest it's been in the last few years. I've taken significant profits from APO, OWL, and PM over the last few weeks, and some less significant profits on a few other smaller positions. 

[Spekulatius]

We must be getting close:

 

[John Hjorth]

19 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

We must be getting close: