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Q2 2021


Parsad
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I thought I would start a new thread in preparation for tomorrow's release.

 

I'm expecting about a 5% ROE based on everything I've been reading from other insurers and reinsurers...so book somewhere around $520-525 USD for Q2. 

 

That's on top of any gains from Digit that would be recorded in the 3rd Quarter...which should round book to about $600 USD assuming similar gross premiums written and a $60 gain on Digit. 

 

Ending Q2...stock should be about $650 CDN based on book.  Ending Q3...stock should theoretically be valued at $750 CDN based on book and peer valuations.

 

Cheers!

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My guess is we may see Q2 earnings of around $20/share; so right in line with what Parsad posted above. Absent Fairfax getting much more aggressive with share buybacks i am not sure what the catalyst will be in the near term to drive the share price higher given all insurers are selling off after posting very strong Q2 results.
 

A few things i will be looking for tomorrow:

 

1.) Gross premiums?  Up 17% in Q1. I think growth could be higher in Q2.

2.) CR? 96% in Q1 = $149 million. Brit is the watchout. Does CR improve from Q1?

3.) Non insurance company results? Wild card; covid lock downs were a headwind in April; likely Q3 before this bucket gets going.

4.) Net gains on investments? My spreadsheet had +$470 million for Q2 and it is usually light (given it does not capture a bunch of holdings).

5.) Excess of fair value over adjusted carrying value of investments in non-insurance associates? My spreadsheet had +$200 million (incl Boat Rocker and Farmers Edge)

6.) Total debt to total capital ratio, excluding non-insurance companies? Was 30.2% in Q1. Would like to see this drop but likely will not happen until Riverstone closes.

 

Updates:

7.) Riverstone UK sale ($750 million)/sale of 14% of Brit ($375 million) - what is the hold up? When will it close?

8.) Purchase of remaining stake in Eurolife? Amount? Transaction tied to 7.) above?

9.) FFH total return swaps - position still at 1.964 million shares?

10.) Digit valuation increase of $1.8 billion - any additional disclosure/discussion?

11.) Mosaic Capital acquisition for C$277 million - for businesses or management team?

12.) Fairfax India: update on Sanmar and Seven Islands IPO’s and Anchorage transaction. Estimate Q2 BV = $19/share

 

Wild card:

13.) Blackberry - able to lock in US $15 price in Q2? (One can hope 🙂

14.) stock buybacks - given how low shares are trading and plans to make this a higher priority in the near term?

Edited by Viking
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1 hour ago, Viking said:

My guess is we may see Q2 earnings of around $20/share; so right in line with what Parsad posted above. Absent Fairfax getting much more aggressive with share buybacks i am not sure what the catalyst will be in the near term to drive the share price higher given all insurers are selling off after posting very strong Q2 results.
 

 

 

Looking at the chart below, we don't really need a catalyst.  As we can see, the main competitors for FFH were priced similarly pre-March 2020.  Then you had a substantial drop where Fairfax was hit the worst and then Everest Re.  White Mountains, Renaissance Re and Markel got hit about the same.  White Mountain and Markel have essentially recovered.  Everest Re has recovered much of its loss.  Renaissance Re and especially Fairfax have a much more substantial distance to go yet.

 

Thus in an insurance industry where all insurers are doing good business and writing 20-25% ROE's I would imagine the market will automatically close the gap between them as institutions and funds reach for yield in a mature stock market.  Cheers!

 

959602063_Fairfax-July282021.thumb.png.b44fdd84cc53b83065a7121d35d8123a.png

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6 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Can this be the birth of a futures market, where people make bet on the quarterly results before their release.

 

If only we could...if only we could!  Cheers!

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Book value per basic share at June 30, 2021 was $540.62 compared to $478.33 at December 31, 2020 (an increase of 15.2% adjusted for the $10 per common share dividend paid in the first quarter of 2021).

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Just killing it!  The two best turnarounds I've seen in the last year have been Handler at JEF and Prem at FFH.  Nearly doubled Viking and my expectations!  Nice job Fairfax!  Cheers!

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3 minutes ago, Parsad said:

Just killing it!  The two best turnarounds I've seen in the last year have been Handler at JEF and Prem at FFH.  Nearly doubled Viking and my expectations!  Nice job Fairfax!  Cheers!

+1

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16 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Now watch - it'll trade flat tomorrow and be up 5% on Monday/Tuesday. 

That's happened numerous times before, no doubt.
 

For the love of GOD I hope they bought back more shares in July.

-Crip

Edited by Crip1
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Where this gets really interesting is the catalysts remain in play. In Peter Lynch language the story is just getting better and better:

1.) hard market driving significant top line growth (27% in Q2); and increasingly improvement in bottom line (CR <95 in Q2)

2.) non insurance investments continue to perform very well and are poised for further gains in 2H

3.) deleveraging is on track when Riverstone UK transaction happens hopefully in August; cash from this transaction (including 14% Brit sale) will be significant ($750 + $375=$1,125).

4.) Digit is shaping up to be next home run

 

5.) Eurolife stake increased from 50 to 80% at cost of $142 million; nice to get this finally done

6.) Singapore Re stake increased from 28 to 94% for $103 million; perhaps now gives Fairfax Asia needed scale

 

Stock closed today at $416. BV = $540. P/BV = .77

With the additional gain in Digit we have clear line of sight to BV of $600 at end of Q3 = P/BV of 0.69

And this ignores the $750 million in non insurance investments not captured in BV (another $29/ share).

Edited by Viking
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5 minutes ago, Viking said:

Where this gets really interesting is the catalysts remain in play. In Peter Lynch language the story is just getting better and better:

1.) hard market driving significant top line growth (27% in Q2); and increasingly improvement in bottom line (CR <95 in Q2)

2.) non insurance investments continue to perform very well and are poised for further gains in 2H

3.) deleveraging is on track when Riverstone UK transaction happens hopefully in August

4.) Digit is shaping up to be next home run

 

And all of this with certain businesses still struggling and recovering like BIAL, Recipe, retail businesses, etc.  $19B in cash firepower ready to do some damage in bonds and equities when the opportunity arrives. 

 

Then finally you have the total return swaps on the FFH shares...what are the gains if they hit $850-900 CDN per share by 2025?  Based on 3rd Q book, even if you mark their shares at 0.85 of book value as presently they are...you are talking about $630-640 CDN per share now.  Trading at book now would be $735-740 CDN.  Could be a homerun like the CDS investments in 2009 by 2024-2025!  Cheers!

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2 minutes ago, ERICOPOLY said:

Up until 2 weeks ago I've been completely out of this stock for 8 or 9 years.  And now my average cost of $525 CDN is actually below the $540 USD book value.

 

 

Should surpass $600 USD a share by the end of the 3rd Q in book value.  My average cost was $450 CDN, but it has risen to about $485 CDN after adding 33% more to my stake last week and this week.  Cheers!

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Investment gains to one side, the insurance results were stellar, Good stuff Fairfax. Agree with Crip, hopefully they have been able to pull the trigger on more share repurchases in July 👍

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20 minutes ago, Viking said:

3.) deleveraging is on track when Riverstone UK transaction happens hopefully in August


Deleveraging already happening as equity grows. They don’t need this to close. 

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11 minutes ago, Parsad said:

And all of this with certain businesses still struggling and recovering like BIAL, Recipe, retail businesses, etc.


And the monster ATCO position executing beautifully but stock going nowhere…

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Yes, Atlas is looking very undervalued. There are others too. Eurobank is looking well positioned once they get another tranche of bad loans off their books later this year (Mexico tranche). If we see tourism (and the Greek economy) rebound over the next 12 months then Eurobank should do very well from current levels (double not out of the question). My point is the investment portfolio could do very well for an extended period as there is still lots of value there when you dig into the individual holdings..

Edited by Viking
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18 minutes ago, petec said:


Deleveraging already happening as equity grows. They don’t need this to close. 


True. I was not expecting they would need the full amount for deleveraging. After paying down debt i was hoping there would be enough cash left over to see some meaningful stock buybacks. I wonder if we do not see a big buyback after the Riverstone deal closes (similar to what we are currently seeing with Fairfax India). That would be like attaching rocket ships to Fairfax’s stock price. 

Edited by Viking
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9 minutes ago, Viking said:

Yes, Atlas is looking very undervalued. There are others too. Eurobank is looking well positioned once they get another tranche of bad loans off their books later this year (Mexico tranche). If we see tourism (and the Greek economy) rebound over the next 12 months then Eurobank should do very well from current levels (double not out of the question). My point is the investment portfolio could do very well for an extended period as there is still lots of value there when you dig into the individual holdings..


Agree. Not inconceivable Eurobank pays a mid teens dividend from 2023 onwards.

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Fairfax India shares closed today at $13.49. BV is now up to $19.26. 

 

“At June 30, 2021 common shareholders' equity was $2,876.3 million, or book value per share of $19.26, compared to $2,446.9 million, or book value per share of $16.37, at December 31, 2020”

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What a great result - 27% growth in GWP and 94% CR immediately stood out - quarterly operating result for insurance & reinsurance looks to be a record  I believe at$398 mil -  we are only half way through the year but still excellent progress so far.

 

The non-insurance operating result has a lot more room to improve too as we continue covid-19 vaccination effort provided the economic recovery stays on track, so I think when looking at normalised operating earnings potential for Fairfax there is still appears to be a lot of scope for growth. 

 

Great to see even a small buyback of $63 mil in 2Q '21 hopefully that will continue

 

 

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