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I Haven't Been This Excited About Going Against The Herd in Years!


Parsad

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2 hours ago, Nomad said:

The question that interests me even more is: Who are the sellers?

And what are they doing after they sell? Moving to apartments, condos, assisted living? Staying in a different primary residence after selling off their second houses, etc.? Where are they putting the proceeds - more real estate? Or "STONKS" that seem to be fashionable these days?

In the Chicago area, where real estate has been dead for 8/9 years, the sellers are that have wanted to get the hell out of here. If you go back 18 months there was huge inventory all over Chicago - stuff just sitting for years. Prices kept falling, inventory kept building - no one buying. Now the flood gates have opened. Homes selling in 2 days, multiple offers - all those people that have wanted to leave and who have 2nd homes in the Sun Belt are finally out of here. Apartments and condos in the city are emptying out. It's crazy.

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2 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

In the Chicago area, where real estate has been dead for 8/9 years, the sellers are that have wanted to get the hell out of here. If you go back 18 months there was huge inventory all over Chicago - stuff just sitting for years. Prices kept falling, inventory kept building - no one buying. Now the flood gates have opened. Homes selling in 2 days, multiple offers - all those people that have wanted to leave and who have 2nd homes in the Sun Belt are finally out of here. Apartments and condos in the city are emptying out. It's crazy.

That's a shame.  I lived in Chicago in 2003, and it was probably the best time to be there in the last 100 years.  My wife and I used to visit at least once a year since we met.  We've stopped that tradition and I'm not sure I feel comfortable visiting with our kids now.  I feel like we're headed back to the 1970's.

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^ Well, you are right to be concerned.  I lived downtown for 20 years. Absolutely had a blast. Now it's dangerous. Many people in the suburbs will just not go downtown anymore. Carjackings, idiot mayor that doesn't back the police, shootings on the expressway, etc.  It was a wonderful place to live, especially for singles/couples. Now it has been ruined - and will take years for trust to be rebuilt - and they are not even trying as we speak.

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A friend jokingly told me that he read something basically stating that you are significantly more likely to be physically hurt or killed walking through parts of Chicago than you are from getting covid. This seems to be acceptable though as I havent really heard anyone making a big deal of this nationally. And the only shots related to this certainly dont provide immunity. These things dont go away overnight. Or even in years. I've seen the same thing with respect to NYC as well. Ultimately, these places make their beds and now lie in it. Despite this, suburban NYC metro area real estate is pretty hot right now. A lot of moving pieces here but the main thing is that coastal cities dont offer what they used to. I grew up regularly hanging out around and in NYC. And like another posted said about Chicago, at this point I dont even know if I'd want to bring my kids there for a day trip. 

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23 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said:

Made $650k cash bid for a fixer. I was 1 of 25 and didn't even get invited to bid again. 

Oh well.

You're certainly not alone. People looking for homes cant buy homes at reasonable prices. Investors cant buy crap at a reasonable price either. Home builders cant build fast enough. Corporations have an increasing need to place money somewhere and real estate has always been top of the list. Nothing is stopping this freight train. All one needs to do is make sure they find something in the ecosystem to invest in this tailwind, and beyond anything else, just avoid execution risk/bad management. Outside of that its easy and straight forward and probably going to be a dominant theme for at least the next half decade but probably much longer. Again, Canada has been in a so called "housing bubble" for two decades. 

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Increasing/ eliminating the SALT cap while increasing the federal income tax rate to pay for it is a no brainer for the democrats, imo. NYC and other cities would be beneficiaries, Florida a relative loser.

When housing cracks, we will see it in CA and perhaps FLA first. I do think it will take a couple of years to get there.

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2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

When housing cracks, we will see it in CA and perhaps FLA first. I do think it will take a couple of years to get there.

People have been saying this about CA for last 20 years or longer.

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I follow calculatedriskblog.com and the author persistently predicts that housing prices are only going up because of very limited inventory.

 

In bayarea peninsula where I live, I got a shock. My area has these houses all built exactly the same in the 50's. So the selling price is pretty much the same, around $1M, this one house listed at $1M sold for $1.3M, I follow my local market and I've never seen that before!   A look on zillow at my neighbourhood clearly shows NO houses for sale. This was a real-life lesson in enconmics, when demand is there and supply is none, someone will pay $300k above what the last guy paid!

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6 hours ago, randomep said:

I follow calculatedriskblog.com and the author persistently predicts that housing prices are only going up because of very limited inventory.

 

In bayarea peninsula where I live, I got a shock. My area has these houses all built exactly the same in the 50's. So the selling price is pretty much the same, around $1M, this one house listed at $1M sold for $1.3M, I follow my local market and I've never seen that before!   A look on zillow at my neighbourhood clearly shows NO houses for sale. This was a real-life lesson in enconmics, when demand is there and supply is none, someone will pay $300k above what the last guy paid!

Take a look at this beauty in Boise. 400k Knew a guy looking at it until he sent me the inspection report. Knob and tub wiring under insulation. Almost completely deteriorated foundation, rusty water, in insulated pipes in crawl space, and tons of stuff out of code. Smartly he walked...don’t know if it will sell, but the fact that it’s listed at that is unbelievable to me. 
 

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/3004-N-36th-St_Boise_ID_83703_M18687-09418


 

 

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On 4/17/2021 at 10:34 PM, Castanza said:

Take a look at this beauty in Boise. 400k Knew a guy looking at it until he sent me the inspection report. Knob and tub wiring under insulation. Almost completely deteriorated foundation, rusty water, in insulated pipes in crawl space, and tons of stuff out of code. Smartly he walked...don’t know if it will sell, but the fact that it’s listed at that is unbelievable to me. 
 

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/3004-N-36th-St_Boise_ID_83703_M18687-09418


 

 

I bet this sells. Looks like it has new lipstick on the pig, and has a decent sized yard from the pictures. Someone who doesn’t know anything about buildings will buy it. I’m glad I don’t need to spend 400k for something like that where I live. 

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2 hours ago, Morgan said:

I bet this sells. Looks like it has new lipstick on the pig, and has a decent sized yard from the pictures. Someone who doesn’t know anything about buildings will buy it. I’m glad I don’t need to spend 400k for something like that where I live. 

I did some pocking around and found about a dozen like this in the area. One was 500 sqft and 350k...

Someone seems to have a solid angle on flipping garden sheds. All this to say, didn’t realize the market in that area was so hot. 

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1 hour ago, Castanza said:

I did some pocking around and found about a dozen like this in the area. One was 500 sqft and 350k...

Someone seems to have a solid angle on flipping garden sheds. All this to say, didn’t realize the market in that area was so hot. 

It might be one of those neighborhoods where they pay a seemingly crazy price for an old shed like this, tear it down, and build and sell a McMansion for 4x the price. Maybe this seller will flip a few sheds and then have enough cash to build a McMansion. 

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Reading all of the posts on this thread and it looks to me like we are seeing the initial result of all the Central bank easing/cheap money/liquiity/no recession (unprecedented) and government deficit spending (unprecedented except in war time). And people are sick of covid (and want to spend and enjoy life like rarely before). I am liking the whole ‘roaring ‘20’s’ analogy more and more. I wonder if we do not see the mother of all asset bubbles where everything goes straight up for the next couple of years. Like +50% (stocks) to 100% (US housing) from current levels. It looks like the stars are all aligned right now...

Edited by Viking
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On 4/16/2021 at 11:45 AM, Nomad said:

The question that interests me even more is: Who are the sellers?

And what are they doing after they sell? Moving to apartments, condos, assisted living? Staying in a different primary residence after selling off their second houses, etc.? Where are they putting the proceeds - more real estate? Or "STONKS" that seem to be fashionable these days?

I am a recent seller. Will be renting a 4 bedroom house. Moving from the burbs (walking distance to great schools and parks) to the city (walking distance to the beach and great restaurants). Both houses are located in great neighbourhoods (quiet, established, beautiful, good neighbours, lots of recreational opportunities). Proceeds from sale will be re-invested into stocks. Where I live (Vancouver) house prices in the burbs are through the roof and rentals in the urban parts of the city are somewhat plentiful in supply and rental prices are down about 8% year over year. All 3 of our kids will be gone in Sept at university and my wife and i are getting on with the next stage of our life: we are looking forward to playing tourist in a really fun part of Vancouver (especially with covid likely hampering international travel into 2022); and we will be much close to the kids which is what sold my wife on the whole plan (and explains the 4 bedroom rental... my wife was adamant the kids have a place to come home to when they want). 🙂 

Edited by Viking
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Recent anecdote from a seller in our neighborhood.

The house was too big for them. Could have hired cleaners, live-in's, etc. but they really needed to downsize - when and where to go. They bought a 1/4 floor of a new-build apartment block in a desirable location, and have rented a basic flat for one-year near a daughter with very young kids. Meanwhile the developer finishes the apartment to their specs. Per the specs it will be a vety nice place, everything on one floor, and with space for kids to stay and visit.

Very smart, and a great many others in the neighborhood have similar versions of the above in mind, comes their turm. It is old housing stock being swapped for new, via a new way of doing things. Hard to knock it.

SD

Edited by SharperDingaan
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On 4/17/2021 at 7:34 PM, Castanza said:

Take a look at this beauty in Boise. 400k Knew a guy looking at it until he sent me the inspection report. Knob and tub wiring under insulation. Almost completely deteriorated foundation, rusty water, in insulated pipes in crawl space, and tons of stuff out of code. Smartly he walked...don’t know if it will sell, but the fact that it’s listed at that is unbelievable to me. 
 

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/3004-N-36th-St_Boise_ID_83703_M18687-09418

wow 350k (reduced) for a 800 sq ft house in Boise? in the condition that you described?
 

 

 

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8 hours ago, Castanza said:

Here’s the inspection report. Complete sh!thole 

Summary of 3004 N 36th Street.pdf 15.29 MB · 19 downloads

That is funny, crumbling foundation, sagging floor support, rafters moved, among so many other problems.  The "house" should be purchased just for the land, and demolished.  But get this, it is sale pending according to zillow.  And looking at the price chart, it was valued at $120 k just 5 years ago.  What is causing Boise real-estate to be so hot?  Guess I am not going to judge until I find out the final sale price.

I am keeping the home inspection report as a reminder of the purpose and need of the home inspection!

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2 hours ago, randomep said:

That is funny, crumbling foundation, sagging floor support, rafters moved, among so many other problems.  The "house" should be purchased just for the land, and demolished.  But get this, it is sale pending according to zillow.  And looking at the price chart, it was valued at $120 k just 5 years ago.  What is causing Boise real-estate to be so hot?  Guess I am not going to judge until I find out the final sale price.

I am keeping the home inspection report as a reminder of the purpose and need of the home inspection!

I think Boise is turning into an Austin style city. From what my friend said there is an upward trend of new tech startups. 
 

From an investment (real estate focused) perspective I haven’t really seen any good plays or anything interesting. 

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