Viking Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Timely interview. I find Dalio hard to follow at times and this interview is long at 45 minutes :-) i especially liked his discussion of how he is looking at investing today (about 27:30 minute mark if you are pressed for time). My notes below were put together quickly; hopefully they are generally accurate. - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-04-15/ray-dalio-on-the-economic-impact-of-the-coronavirus-crisis-video Big buckets: - goods and services - will see deflation - asset prices: inflation (driven by central bank actions) - currency - devaluations Next 12 months world GDP will contract 4-5% Recession will be bigger than 2008; most comparable to 1930-1945. We will adapt. When central banks open the spigots, historically this usually indicates the bottom is in for stocks 2008 the issue was banks. Issues today go way beyond banks; who do you want to save? Where we go from here? - helps to look at it in two ways: countries and asset types - people will be looking for storehold of wealth - bonds are the clear losers today. Who would hold an instrument that pays zero or even negative interest rate? Currency risk. - some stocks will win: strong balance sheet and stable income - globally, there will also be winners and losers. Countries without a ’Fed’ will be losers (EM?) - other things to watch: civil behavior (income inequality)? Changes in tax rates? Severely different world moving forward: 1.) countries will be more self sufficient: health care; supply chain 2.) climate change When will Bridgewater get back to old normal? - current situation (working from home) is not a big deal; was contemplated and prepared for many years - will be very conservative with plan to return; this is a health issue - virus - history has shown these viruses come in waves - humans adapt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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