The optimistic take on Covid-19

[Cigarbutt]

I’ve spent a few hours trying to find statistics for different countries. What I’ve tried to find is:

1. Countries that have tested a lot. Preferably over 1% of the population.

2. Cases (infections)

3. Deaths

I’ve noticed a huge problem - it’s super difficult getting the information on how many tests countries have done. Everyone seems to report on infections and deaths. I’m no expert, but you’d think reporting on the denominator would be of vital information!

 

Any recommended site that tracks: countries; number of tests done; infections; deaths?

Norway has tested over 1,4% of it’s population:

Tests: 73.089

Cases: 3.346

Deaths: 14

Mortality rate: 0,42%

What you ask requires a lot of work and integration of heterogeneous data on many levels. Some people are trying and the picture is slowly taking form:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Go to:

What information about test coverage do we currently have?

They give their methodology, the data is regularly updated and the graphs are interactive.

 

[LongHaul]

Good site for data

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#daily-cases

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Good site for data

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#daily-cases

 

Excellent resources.

 

The severe and critical cases rising on an exponential scale has to be concerning though - no? 15k cases and rising logarithmically.

[bergman104]

We need to stop comparing this to the flu.

 

It's worse in a few ways. A person with influenza A (~75% of flu cases) starts to show symptoms within a day and are typically critically ill 6-7 days later. COVID-19 takes 4-5 days to start showing symptoms, with about 5% of people showing symptoms as late as 11-12 day. Secondly, COVID-19 takes ~3 weeks for ICU admission after initial infection. Meaning the time course is from 3-4 weeks from infection to serious disease. The flu is much more dramatic. The slow process is also why COVID is so scary, because people can spread the infection for so much longer. Finally, our best estimates are COVID is about twice as infective as the flu, which also sucks. I think the arguments about mortality rate are valid. We'd have better data if we had more tests. But if the 1.5% mortality rate holds it will be 15x more deadly than the typical flu.

 

I understand the analogies, but this is not a normal flu season packing into a few weeks. They are different processes and scary for different reasons. Sorry, rant over.

 

Paper on incubation period

https://annals.org/AIM/FULLARTICLE/2762808/INCUBATION-PERIOD-CORONAVIRUS-DISEASE-2019-COVID-19-FROM-PUBLICLY-REPORTED

 

Paper on clinical course

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673620305663

 

Influenza Incubation Period

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1473309909700696

 

Incubation period and mortality

https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/full/10.1148/radiol.2020200463

[Aurelius]

Hielko: you're right. It's too simplistic to just take cases and divide by mortality, as you explained very well. Nevertheless mortality rates seem way lower in countries that have done a lot of testing and that is encouraging.

 

Also very encouraging seeing the testing done in Iceland. It shows that about 1% of it's population has the virus - 3600 people. So far 2 deaths and 3 in intensive care. It will be interesting seeing how things progress in Iceland.

 

bergman: Lots of good information - thanks. I wanna make it clear. I'm not saying Covid19 is just a regular flu - lets get back to normal.

 

The next 2-4 weeks are going to be very interesting. If the mortality rate really is 1,5%, we should start seeing a lot of people dying in Iceland as their study assumes 1% has the virus.

 

It will also be very interesting comparing Denmark and Sweden, as Sweden is doing very little to contain the virus whereas Denmark has locked down. So far mortality per 100.000 is nearly identical.

[investmd]

great post Aurelius.  value added.

 

relying to another post:  "The problem isn't the mortality rate, it's the virulence - how many people get infected and how fast." 

 

I disagree wholeheartedly.  every flu season we are indifferent to virulence and mortality..I suppose because we offer a predictive vaccine, we believe we are doing enough.  I doubt anyone on this board would have known before covid-19 that there are 10,000-50,000 flu-related deaths in US every year.

 

yes the facts have changed with a novel virus, but every season we have some novel viruses (hence vaccinated people still get sick), and the development of antibodies by the vast majority of infected by covid-19 is a big plus and necessary to deal with covid-19...which is why all of our focus should be on ring fencing and protecting elderly/immune compromised.  that we only recently barred visitation to nursing homes is batshit crazy.  that is the first thing we should have done

 

Cherceza - You are correct that thousands die annually from the flu. We know that resulting pneumonia is one of the largest Cause of Death for the elderly. The point you are missing here is how contagious COVID 19 is and the effect on the healthcare system. The worrisome aspect is healthcare systems being overrun. When that happens, normal lifesaving treatments for heart attacks, strokes, cancer etc... are compromised. In order to create capacity for Covid patients, hospitals across N. America have cancelled non emergency surgery - so if you are waiting to have heart bypass surgery - you will wait rather than having treatment. The only way currently to stop the system from being overwhelmed is to social distance.

[investmd]

"I was on a conf call today with a surgeon from Brooklyn who said their one hospital has 180 Covid patients admitted with 90 of them on a ventilator in the ICU"

 

report from good friend who is a pulmonologist/ER in Jax.  10-20 hospitalizations, zero on ventilators/ICU.

 

Yes, distribution of Covid is very heterogeneous currently in the US. I also know that Salt Lake City for example has very few cases admitted. However, the fact that Jacksonville or Salt Lake City doesn't have a big problem right now, doesn't diminish the problem in NYC and the threat.

 

As of last night, the US now has the largest number of reported Covid cases in the world! at over 81,000. By the end of the day today, it will be likely over 100,000.

 

The whole world is thinking of only Covid. I'd advocate that we as individuals think of what we can do to help with the crisis. There are frontline healthcare workers taking best care of humans, others are working to keep grocery stores open for us to eat, bus drivers are taking emergency workers to frontlines....I would not want to diminish the good of anyone's career. However, If the work you do is not VITAL to fighting the epidemic, what we as individuals can do to help contribute to society is SOCIAL DISTANCING to help BEND THE CURVE.

[no_free_lunch]

Canada has announced 75% federal wage subsidy for small and medium businesses.  That has to cover something close to half of all workers.  If this is a long quarantine, Canada could be in serious financial trouble.

 

Also in Canada, I saw a link on Reddit about a movement to not pay rent.  Rationale being why pay rent when your landlord is a greedy bastard and you are down on your luck. It plays into the legal grey area that landlord s can't evict at the moment.

[Castanza]

Canada has announced 75% federal wage subsidy for small and medium businesses.  That has to cover something close to half of all workers.  If this is a long quarantine, Canada could be in serious financial trouble.

 

Also in Canada, I saw a link on Reddit about a movement to not pay rent.  Rationale being why pay rent when your landlord is a greedy bastard and you are down on your luck. It plays into the legal grey area that landlord s can't evict at the moment.

 

Lmao this keeps getting better.

[drzola]

Hey Castanza  Question; where in Canada does one commit Capitol Punishment thru the courts of Law?

Now Please I ask you once again  how hard is it to stay Put and safe my friend,

[Castanza]

Hey Castanza  Question; where in Canada does one commit Capitol Punishment thru the courts of Law?

Now Please I ask you once again  how hard is it to stay Put and safe my friend,

 

I think you’re looking for this thread.

 

https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/what-are-you-drinking/

[John Hjorth]

... The whole world is thinking of only Covid. ...

 

It's simply just not true, ref. the topic title : "The optimistic take on Covid-19". I'm still at least once a day thinking about when I'll get sex the next time. [Not to be confused with "Was the last time really the last time?" - You know, active [agressive?] approach versus resignation & capitulation.]. I've also been pretty active with regard to keeping the supply chain intact for the household with regard all kinds of groceries [food], beverages [beer & wine] etc.

 

[DooDiligence]

... The whole world is thinking of only Covid. ...

 

It's simply just not true, ref. the topic title : "The optimistic take on Covid-19". I'm still at least once a day thinking about when I'll get sex the next time. [Not to be confused with "Was the last time really the last time?" - You know, active [agressive?] approach versus resignation & capitulation.]. I've also been pretty active with regard to keeping the supply chain intact for the household with regard all kinds of groceries [food], beverages [beer & wine] etc.

 

The boat launch near me has been jam packed every day.

 

beer > covid

[Gregmal]

... The whole world is thinking of only Covid. ...

 

It's simply just not true, ref. the topic title : "The optimistic take on Covid-19". I'm still at least once a day thinking about when I'll get sex the next time. [Not to be confused with "Was the last time really the last time?" - You know, active [agressive?] approach versus resignation & capitulation.]. I've also been pretty active with regard to keeping the supply chain intact for the household with regard all kinds of groceries [food], beverages [beer & wine] etc.

 

The boat launch near me has been jam packed every day.

 

beer > covid

 

Cheers to that. Bud light, Marlboros and walleye fishing for some reprieve

[drzola]

I will counter Castanza's you tube thread he suggested with this one here;

 

 

I suggest you may humbly accept this counter eh!

 

Cheers.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Good site for data

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#daily-cases

 

Excellent resources.

 

The severe and critical cases rising on an exponential scale has to be concerning though - no? 15k cases and rising logarithmically.

 

Now up to 24k cases after a single day.

[StevieV]

 

According to this tweet, the CDD is going to start recommending masks.  No brainer.  Problem is getting the masks out.

 

I've read about the "stigma" of wearing a mask.  Sure, 3 months ago if I had worn a mask to work, it would have stood out and people would have wondered what was wrong.  If I wore one next month, seems like it would be fine.

[StevieV]

Testing is coming along.  Abbott has a test that can give a result in as little as 5 minutes.  I also ran across this article about an at-home test.  We could also really use antibody tests.  One of the treatments being investigated proving that it helps somewhat would also be a huge plus.

 

I think there is a path to decent scenarios.  In the short term, I'm not sure.  I'm somewhat optimistic/hopeful that we'll be in reasonable shape to contain it in the fall.

[Gregmal]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28963428/espn-burke-symptom-free-positive-test

 

These are the stories we dont really hear about often. Just the 36 year old mother found dead with her kids and the 22 year old with no underlying conditions....

[Guest cherzeca]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28963428/espn-burke-symptom-free-positive-test

 

These are the stories we dont really hear about often. Just the 36 year old mother found dead with her kids and the 22 year old with no underlying conditions....

 

as far as I can tell, with many of these narratives of "no underlying conditions" there are in fact underlying conditions.  cardiovascular risk, high blood pressure, asthma, etc, one is able to cope normally without outward effect, but this virus takes advantage of the senescent cells resulting from these conditions to become virus reproducing factories, which triggers an inflammatory reaction, which results in pneumonia, which...

[Aurelius]

Norway: 


1,59% of population tested - 85.136

Infected: 4.265

Died: 26 - case fatality rate: 0,6%

Average age of victims: 84

% of infected 80 years and older: 4,9% --> locking down countries vs protecting the elderly/vulnerable?

Life expectancy in Norway: 82,5 years.

 

 

 

 

[Aurelius]

Denmark vs Sweden: lockdown vs open

In Sweden, the number of deaths per million stands at 11, while it is 12 in Denmark.

But there are relatively more Swedish patients in intensive care, so these numbers could change over the next coming days…

[John Hjorth]

Denmark vs Sweden: lockdown vs open

In Sweden, the number of deaths per million stands at 11, while it is 12 in Denmark.

But there are relatively more Swedish patients in intensive care, so these numbers could over the next coming days…

 

Aurelius,

 

This line of thinking is flawed. Where is Mr. Anders Tegnell's downside protection? [For him and for every Swedish citizen]?

[Aurelius]

John Hjorth,

 

I am not making any judgements. Just reporting. It's going to be very interesting seeing how things progress in Sweden and Denmark...

 

If in 2-4 weeks there is no mortality difference between the countries - what then?

[Spekulatius]

Denmark vs Sweden: lockdown vs open

In Sweden, the number of deaths per million stands at 11, while it is 12 in Denmark.

But there are relatively more Swedish patients in intensive care, so these numbers could change over the next coming days…

 

It will be interesting to see how it works. Something they works in one country, may not work in another. Sweden has a good health care system and the people in general are way healthier than most other countries including the US (much lower rates for asthma and obesity compared to the US or Germany example)

 

While they are taking some risk, the Swedes are also considered responsible so if the government brings the hammer down, they will probably see pretty good compliance.

 

I think a lot can be learned how each country approaches this and how they do, but it is difficult to compare this directly and conclude what works in one country will work in another as well without adjustments.

 

Italy and Spain are socioeconomic and cultural similar and have a similar outcome in this epidemic for example.