Aurelius Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 There is so much information out there regarding Covid19. It’s hard to distinguish signal from noise. I believe the following information is signal. Hopefully this is useful. I’d love feedback. Especially if you believe I’m wrong. Alright… lets go! Some 20 years ago the Faroe Islands (google it) had severe problems with their salmon industry. The salmon had gotten infected with ILA virus. The Faroe Islands invested in research equipment to do testing for the virus. Fast forward to the present. There is no country in the world that has done more tests and tracing per inhabitant than the Faroe Islands. Testing is fast and easy. Thus far 2.482 have been tested. The population of the country is only 52.500. 4,7% of the population have been tested! Results: Infected: 132 In hospital: 2 Intensive care: 0 https://corona.fo/ Zero critically ill out of 122 infected. Good news! But it would be nice if the sample size was larger. It gets better… (I believe) Iceland is, I believe, the country in the world that has done the 2nd most testing per inhabitant - 3,2% of all islanders have been tested. Results: Infected: 737 In hospital: 15 Intensive care: 2 Died: 2 covid.is/data Mortality rate in Iceland 0,27%. If we add the numbers of both countries the mortality rate drops to 0,23%. Note: the true mortality rate should be even lower, as not every person infected will be counted for. In fact you would have to assume the mortality rate probably ought to be way lower, as there is no chance to catch and count all infected people. The average health of people in Iceland and the Faroe Islands is similar with Scandinavian countries. Age demographics are probably also quite similarly distributed as well. There’s more good news! In Iceland they’ve done something very interesting. They have done a large scale screen test of asymptomatic people only: Results: Diagnosed tests: 5.571 Positive samples: 48 Indicating that approximately 1% of the general population has the virus. The populationg in Iceland is 364.000. Extrapolating the findings of the large scale testing there should be approximately 3.640 persons with the virus in Iceland. The mortality rate obviously plummets with these numbers. https://nordiclifescience.org/covid-19-first-results-of-the-voluntary-screening-on-iceland/ Another interesting fact they’ve found in the Faroe Islands is that there are two different types of Covid19: -one type who is more severe, but doesn’t transmit very easily -and another type who is less severe, but transmits more easily That seems like good news to me, as it will be easier to not catch the bad Covid19, if you are a person at particular risk and take the recommended precautions. The obvious problem thus far has been the lack of knowledge about the denominator. Thus wildly exaggerating that statistics on how lethal Covid19 is. https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b "The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford. If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all. “We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.” Besides we might get the answer “within days” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-mass-home-testing-to-be-made-available-within-days Sweden is and will be an interesting case to look out for. As I understand they’ve done very little to mitigate the spread. Groups shouldn’t gather when over 500! Borders partly closed. Gymnasiums and universities closed. Kindergarten and regular schools still open. As well as public sector and most of the business sector. Sweden has thus far had 62 people die of Covid19. Denmark has shutdown almost everything. 34 people have died in Denmark. Sweden has recorded 82% more deaths than Denmark. Sweden has 74% more people than Denmark. Michael Levitt praised Israel for its preventative measures. He said most people are naturally immune, and that since the infection rate in China is slowing down, "the end of the pandemic is near." https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-nobel-laureate-Coronavirus-spread-is-slowing-621145 This got longer than I intended. Needless to say I am very optimistic/bullish. This has the potential to be over before we know it! A lot of people are really bearish people. I get it - it could be very scary. At this point though I’d be scared shitless sitting on a lot of cash. But that’s just me :-) Lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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