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wescobrk
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I have some shorts but I went long quite a bit in the last 5 min of Friday. So much for a bounce.

Maybe down 10% tomorrow? It is going to be an ugly day tomorrow.

I need more cash. How can we not go down more than 50% from the peak as bad as everything is?

The news will be even worse this week.

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I don't think it's as bad as 08 where it looked horrendous out for a decade.  I think there will be perhaps the the most severe recession ever but hopefully short and then followed by a huge rebound over the next year.  If businesses reflect all future cash flows it seems overdone.  In 10 years will this still have had an impact?

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I don't think it's as bad as 08 where it looked horrendous out for a decade.  I think there will be perhaps the the most severe recession ever but hopefully short and then followed by a huge rebound over the next year.  If businesses reflect all future cash flows it seems overdone.  In 10 years will this still have had an impact?

 

We didn't start at 21x P/Es on 2008 either.

 

Also, cash flows more than 10+ years out make up very little of the valuation of the company. The contraction you're seeing now is from the expected impact over the 2-3 years.

 

There will be no V shaped recovery.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/fed-s-bullard-says-u-s-jobless-rate-may-soar-to-30-in-2q

 

If this pans out, this will be worse than the Great Depression.  I'm calling it now, equities are going to tank past 60%.  We're looking at Great Depression levels of fuckery.  And this all started in 2008.  Those assholes should have fucked the economy back then.  But we all know they kicked the can way down the road, and the blowup will be 10x more severe.  It's not even the corona virus.  It's a financial crisis due to the greatest asset bubbles of ALL time: equities, housing, corporate debt, risk premium (or lack there of).  It's time to pay the pied piper.  And it's a big gay bear ready to fuck the bull in the ass.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/fed-s-bullard-says-u-s-jobless-rate-may-soar-to-30-in-2q

 

If this pans out, this will be worse than the Great Depression.  I'm calling it now, equities are going to tank past 60%.  We're looking at Great Depression levels of fuckery.  And this all started in 2008.  Those assholes should have fucked the economy back then.  But we all know they kicked the can way down the road, and the blowup will be 10x more severe.  It's not even the corona virus.  It's a financial crisis due to the greatest asset bubbles of ALL time: equities, housing, corporate debt, risk premium (or lack there of).  It's time to pay the pied piper.  And it's a big gay bear ready to fuck the bull in the ass.

 

+1. Such tragedy but could not stop laughing on the gay bear remark. Thanks.

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There will be no V shaped recovery.

 

In the economy or in stocks? If the economy, why not?

 

The political response is interesting. I think the UK (for once) is leading the world on the fiscal response to this thing. If the US does not get this right the impact at ground level *could* look like the GD. But only briefly. Eventually the pressure on pols will be huge.

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I think the fear on here is quiet interesting since decent to good Companies are 50-75 pct. off since their most recent highs and yet it sounds like risk has increased. There are stocks that'll be multibaggers off these levels, still it sounds like a lot of people are almost 100 pct. cash and spend more time acting as hobby epidemiologist or prepping for zombie apocalypse. Denmark, where I live, seems to have flattened the curve after 12 days of lockdown. More countries in Europe seem to turn the corner. You Guys in the states might be last but you'll get through this as well. And all politicians seems pretty committed to use a fiscal bazooka if needed. Good luck to all.

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I think the fear on here is quiet interesting since decent to good Companies are 50-75 pct. off since their most recent highs and yet it sounds like risk has increased.

 

Which companies do you like the best?  I don't follow that many, so I'm likely missing out on potential ideas.

 

I agree with your general point that the amount of general posts here has swamped company-specific posts for awhile.  It's been hard to get any conversation going about specific companies.

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I think the fear on here is quiet interesting since decent to good Companies are 50-75 pct. off since their most recent highs and yet it sounds like risk has increased.

 

Which companies do you like the best?  I don't follow that many, so I'm likely missing out on potential ideas.

 

I agree with your general point that the amount of general posts here has swamped company-specific posts for awhile.  It's been hard to get any conversation going about specific companies.

KJP, I understand your partially veiled impatience but it is hard to read what the Fed just announced and to continue as if it's business as usual..

FWIW, I read what you write but I don't understand most of the companies you mention. I do find Black Stone Minerals interesting and may contribute over the next few weeks, months.

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I think the fear on here is quiet interesting since decent to good Companies are 50-75 pct. off since their most recent highs and yet it sounds like risk has increased.

 

Which companies do you like the best?  I don't follow that many, so I'm likely missing out on potential ideas.

 

I agree with your general point that the amount of general posts here has swamped company-specific posts for awhile.  It's been hard to get any conversation going about specific companies.

KJP, I understand your partially veiled impatience but it is hard to read what the Fed just announced and to continue as if it's business as usual..

FWIW, I read what you write but I don't understand most of the companies you mention. I do find Black Stone Minerals interesting and may contribute over the next few weeks, months.

 

Yes, I agree it's useful to think about the macro situation too in times like these.  And the Fed certainly isn't acting like it's business as usual.  But I'm always curious what people are looking at when they make general statements like "there are many big bargains right now," because I don't see that in general, but I also don't look at anything close to the entire universe of companies.  If nothing else, having more names to look at will keep me busy and, hopefully, more patient.   

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There will be no V shaped recovery.

 

In the economy or in stocks? If the economy, why not?

 

The political response is interesting. I think the UK (for once) is leading the world on the fiscal response to this thing. If the US does not get this right the impact at ground level *could* look like the GD. But only briefly. Eventually the pressure on pols will be huge.

 

In either.

 

The U.S. govt can't save everyone. There will be bankruptcies and lasting employment damage from this even with Fed and Treasury support and even if the virus disappeared and everything went back to normal by the end of this month.

 

In all reality, the social distancing works to prevent hospital overload now, but if we don't get a vaccine in the next six months you'll see this hit again in the fall and another subsequent drop off in activity since we don't yet have heard immunity. Even w/o govt restrictions, there will be people who voluntarily social distance because of concern about parents, or elderly colleagues, or themselves.

 

Each wave of the virus will likely be less and less impactful, but will still be impactful with long-term damage until heard immunity or a vaccine.

 

No V shaped recovery.

 

Also, fun fact, if earnings just dropped the traditional 30% they typically do in recessions than we're still @ 22x 2020 earnings and probably a steeply elevated multiple on 2021 earnings as well.

 

This has further to go.

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Also, fun fact, if earnings just dropped the traditional 30% they typically do in recessions than we're still @ 22x 2020 earnings and probably a steeply elevated multiple on 2021 earnings as well.

 

The reported P/E ratio was highest in 2009 after the market bottomed.  It went to 123x in May 2009.

 

https://money.stackexchange.com/questions/73827/why-was-sp-500-pe-ratio-so-high-on-may-2009

 

 

 

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Also, fun fact, if earnings just dropped the traditional 30% they typically do in recessions than we're still @ 22x 2020 earnings and probably a steeply elevated multiple on 2021 earnings as well.

 

The reported P/E ratio was highest in 2009 after the market bottomed.  It went to 123x in May 2009.

 

https://money.stackexchange.com/questions/73827/why-was-sp-500-pe-ratio-so-high-on-may-2009

 

Yup, and nowhere near that extreme to think the P/E has lost its meaning this time around. Of course if we get a one-off hit to earnings that popped us to 123x, is ignore it.

 

But a normal 30% decline in earnings that occurs in most recessions doesn't tend to pop P/Es to 120+ where they become meaningless and irrelevant - and the loss in earnings isn't immediately coming back which means we can't simply write off 20x because it'll be 15x in 2021.

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I think the fear on here is quiet interesting since decent to good Companies are 50-75 pct. off since their most recent highs and yet it sounds like risk has increased.

 

Which companies do you like the best?  I don't follow that many, so I'm likely missing out on potential ideas.

 

I agree with your general point that the amount of general posts here has swamped company-specific posts for awhile.  It's been hard to get any conversation going about specific companies.

I don't even know where to begin. I think the ground is littered with bargains. Can they get cheaper? Sure. Who knows. I'm just surprised how pretty much every study indicates it's impossible to time the market (Ray Dalio called cash trash like 3 weeks before COVID-19 struck...), yet when I read this forum I get the sense the world is about to end and most prefer cash - which wasn't my impression two months ago. But perhaps people like myself have simply gotten our asses kicked (I have!) and stay low while all the cash-rich fellas' are looking to invest at the bottom.

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I think the fear on here is quiet interesting since decent to good Companies are 50-75 pct. off since their most recent highs and yet it sounds like risk has increased.

 

Which companies do you like the best?  I don't follow that many, so I'm likely missing out on potential ideas.

 

I agree with your general point that the amount of general posts here has swamped company-specific posts for awhile.  It's been hard to get any conversation going about specific companies.

I don't even know where to begin. I think the ground is littered with bargains.

 

I'm not saying you're wrong.  I'm genuinely interested in understanding the companies you're referring to.

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I think the fear on here is quiet interesting since decent to good Companies are 50-75 pct. off since their most recent highs and yet it sounds like risk has increased.

 

Which companies do you like the best?  I don't follow that many, so I'm likely missing out on potential ideas.

 

I agree with your general point that the amount of general posts here has swamped company-specific posts for awhile.  It's been hard to get any conversation going about specific companies.

I don't even know where to begin. I think the ground is littered with bargains.

 

I'm not saying you're wrong.  I'm genuinely interested in understanding the companies you're referring to.

Lots of mega caps and sleep well at night stocks seem cheap; Berkshire, Google, Altria.

 

I think ALT managers have a bright future and like KKR where apart from earnings there's some tangible value in their investments (which have taken a hit, obviously). Espescially with low rates. Unlike say BAM you don't have to have a strong opinion on malls.

 

Also like retailers (ugh!) like Ulta Beauty - and an asset light (but sub prime heavy!) play on retailers like Alliance Data Systems. The last one has been expensive for me, but hopefully it'll be a multibagger from here.

 

I also like car dealerships. Auto Nation and Ashbury Automotive are cheap and well run in the states, but they also have a bit of leverage. Their new car sales will be hurt in a recession, obviously, but they're making around 40-45 pct. of their GP on service, which is resilent. I like both, but have invested in Vertu Motors and Cambria Automobiles in UK instead - they're simply cheaper.

 

Vertu with around half of the market cap in net cash and coming out of a large investment cycle (thus harvesting FCF now), Cambria arguably a better business and with a fine balance sheet but bigger capex cycle ahead (perhaps some will be postphoned). I also really like Clipper Logistics in the UK (a play on retail and ecommerce), which I've written up, as well as St. James Place (money manager with sticky capital, high ROIC, asset light).

 

My biggest position is Berkshire, second biggest is Linamar, which is a founder-led Canadian auto parts, industrial and and agri company. 2019 was a tough year for them, and they did close to 700m in FCF vs. a market cap of 1,6b today. Guided for another 500-700m this year.

 

That was a couple of weeks before auto OEMS closed shop, they themselves will be shut down for some time, but I think the world will go on in 6-8 weeks, and I expect them to keep throwing off cash and diversify further (latest is into medtech - hopefully something less cyclical!). Trades around 0,3xBV and will probably do mid/high teens ROE if things start hitting on all cylinders at some point. Insiders have been buying.

 

All can be debated - well not really, most have gotten killed - but they're pretty simple business that are easy to understand and should be here in 5-10 years if they don't go bust before then. No idea about the upside, I'm mostly trying to figure out the downside, because if they get through to the other side, I'll much prefer to own 10 plus ROE businesses with fat dividends and half-resilent earnings and net cash should at 1,5xev/ebitda (Vertu) than hold cash - volatility be damned.

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I think the fear on here is quiet interesting since decent to good Companies are 50-75 pct. off since their most recent highs and yet it sounds like risk has increased.

 

Which companies do you like the best?  I don't follow that many, so I'm likely missing out on potential ideas.

 

I agree with your general point that the amount of general posts here has swamped company-specific posts for awhile.  It's been hard to get any conversation going about specific companies.

I don't even know where to begin. I think the ground is littered with bargains.

 

I'm not saying you're wrong.  I'm genuinely interested in understanding the companies you're referring to.

Lots of mega caps and sleep well at night stocks seem cheap; Berkshire, Google, Altria.

 

I think ALT managers have a bright future and like KKR where apart from earnings there's some tangible value in their investments (which have taken a hit, obviously). Espescially with low rates. Unlike say BAM you don't have to have a strong opinion on malls.

 

Also like retailers (ugh!) like Ulta Beauty - and an asset light (but sub prime heavy!) play on retailers like Alliance Data Systems. The last one has been expensive for me, but hopefully it'll be a multibagger from here.

 

I also like car dealerships. Auto Nation and Ashbury Automotive are cheap and well run in the states, but they also have a bit of leverage. Their new car sales will be hurt in a recession, obviously, but they're making around 40-45 pct. of their GP on service, which is resilent. I like both, but have invested in Vertu Motors and Cambria Automobiles in UK instead - they're simply cheaper.

 

Vertu with around half of the market cap in net cash and coming out of a large investment cycle (thus harvesting FCF now), Cambria arguably a better business and with a fine balance sheet but bigger capex cycle ahead (perhaps some will be postphoned). I also really like Clipper Logistics in the UK (a play on retail and ecommerce), which I've written up, as well as St. James Place (money manager with sticky capital, high ROIC, asset light).

 

My biggest position is Berkshire, second biggest is Linamar, which is a founder-led Canadian auto parts, industrial and and agri company. 2019 was a tough year for them, and they did close to 700m in FCF vs. a market cap of 1,6b today. Guided for another 500-700m this year.

 

That was a couple of weeks before auto OEMS closed shop, they themselves will be shut down for some time, but I think the world will go on in 6-8 weeks, and I expect them to keep throwing off cash and diversify further (latest is into medtech - hopefully something less cyclical!). Trades around 0,3xBV and will probably do mid/high teens ROE if things start hitting on all cylinders at some point. Insiders have been buying.

 

All can be debated - well not really, most have gotten killed - but they're pretty simple business that are easy to understand and should be here in 5-10 years if they don't go bust before then. No idea about the upside, I'm mostly trying to figure out the downside, because if they get through to the other side, I'll much prefer to own 10 plus ROE businesses with fat dividends and half-resilent earnings and net cash should at 1,5xev/ebitda (Vertu) than hold cash - volatility be damned.

 

Thanks for the thoughts.  To the extent it's useful, I have an eye on the following:

 

FRP Holdings

Griffin Industrial Realty

Williams Companies

LICT Corp.

Rosetta Stone

Comcast

Black Stone Minerals (it's hard to even type that right now)

Daily Journal

Hill International

NVR

 

For a few of them, I've been buying a bit here and there, but largely waiting for them to get even cheaper.

 

 

 

 

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I think the fear on here is quiet interesting since decent to good Companies are 50-75 pct. off since their most recent highs and yet it sounds like risk has increased. There are stocks that'll be multibaggers off these levels, still it sounds like a lot of people are almost 100 pct. cash and spend more time acting as hobby epidemiologist or prepping for zombie apocalypse. Denmark, where I live, seems to have flattened the curve after 12 days of lockdown. More countries in Europe seem to turn the corner. You Guys in the states might be last but you'll get through this as well. And all politicians seems pretty committed to use a fiscal bazooka if needed. Good luck to all.

 

In Germany the trend is flatting too, as seems to be the case in Italy as the hammer finally came doen. US still had more pain ahead in this department. The reason why everyone looks at headlines is because it is a headline and liquidity (or lack thereof) driven market. I do agree there are some unbelievable bargains out there, short of going into a real depression.

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I think the fear on here is quiet interesting since decent to good Companies are 50-75 pct. off since their most recent highs and yet it sounds like risk has increased.

 

Which companies do you like the best?  I don't follow that many, so I'm likely missing out on potential ideas.

 

I agree with your general point that the amount of general posts here has swamped company-specific posts for awhile.  It's been hard to get any conversation going about specific companies.

I don't even know where to begin. I think the ground is littered with bargains.

 

I'm not saying you're wrong.  I'm genuinely interested in understanding the companies you're referring to.

Lots of mega caps and sleep well at night stocks seem cheap; Berkshire, Google, Altria.

 

I think ALT managers have a bright future and like KKR where apart from earnings there's some tangible value in their investments (which have taken a hit, obviously). Espescially with low rates. Unlike say BAM you don't have to have a strong opinion on malls.

 

Also like retailers (ugh!) like Ulta Beauty - and an asset light (but sub prime heavy!) play on retailers like Alliance Data Systems. The last one has been expensive for me, but hopefully it'll be a multibagger from here.

 

I also like car dealerships. Auto Nation and Ashbury Automotive are cheap and well run in the states, but they also have a bit of leverage. Their new car sales will be hurt in a recession, obviously, but they're making around 40-45 pct. of their GP on service, which is resilent. I like both, but have invested in Vertu Motors and Cambria Automobiles in UK instead - they're simply cheaper.

 

Vertu with around half of the market cap in net cash and coming out of a large investment cycle (thus harvesting FCF now), Cambria arguably a better business and with a fine balance sheet but bigger capex cycle ahead (perhaps some will be postphoned). I also really like Clipper Logistics in the UK (a play on retail and ecommerce), which I've written up, as well as St. James Place (money manager with sticky capital, high ROIC, asset light).

 

My biggest position is Berkshire, second biggest is Linamar, which is a founder-led Canadian auto parts, industrial and and agri company. 2019 was a tough year for them, and they did close to 700m in FCF vs. a market cap of 1,6b today. Guided for another 500-700m this year.

 

That was a couple of weeks before auto OEMS closed shop, they themselves will be shut down for some time, but I think the world will go on in 6-8 weeks, and I expect them to keep throwing off cash and diversify further (latest is into medtech - hopefully something less cyclical!). Trades around 0,3xBV and will probably do mid/high teens ROE if things start hitting on all cylinders at some point. Insiders have been buying.

 

All can be debated - well not really, most have gotten killed - but they're pretty simple business that are easy to understand and should be here in 5-10 years if they don't go bust before then. No idea about the upside, I'm mostly trying to figure out the downside, because if they get through to the other side, I'll much prefer to own 10 plus ROE businesses with fat dividends and half-resilent earnings and net cash should at 1,5xev/ebitda (Vertu) than hold cash - volatility be damned.

 

Thanks for the thoughts.  To the extent it's useful, I have an eye on the following:

 

FRP Holdings

Griffin Industrial Realty

Williams Companies

LICT Corp.

Rosetta Stone

Comcast

Black Stone Minerals (it's hard to even type that right now)

Daily Journal

Hill International

NVR

 

For a few of them, I've been buying a bit here and there, but largely waiting for them to get even cheaper.

I'm familiar with most of those (and have a large stake in WMB since recently). How do you decide whether they're cheap enough or not? The other day, when WMB went down 30 pct. to below 9 - apparently somewhat due to forced selling from ETF's - I think that seemed like a good time to pounce. Things can always get cheaper, obviously, but I think it's too difficult to try and time the bottom and thus stay fully invested - now with a little margin on top - if I can find investments that meet my criteria.

 

That was possible for me before the selloff (I might have to increase my hurdle rate - I'm too easily lured I think), and it has been dead easy since S&P went down 1/3 in 4 weeks. Anyway, my question is - when we've had a day like today (up 10 pct.) - how does one ever get back in if things just shoot up? Not saying that'll happen, or that it's even likely, but doesn't one risk missing all the action because one is anchored to prices just last week (with a lot of stuff since then up 50-100 pct.)? I think I would. I already find it extremely hard not to anchor to prices that aren't around 52-week lows - as arbitrary and dumb as it is.

 

I know being fully invested isn't for everyone - I've been down almost 50 pct. in 4 weeks - but it takes a lot of difficult mental gymnastics out of the equation. Obviously one needs to be able to stomach some crazy volatility. And be able to find decent investments.

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I think the fear on here is quiet interesting since decent to good Companies are 50-75 pct. off since their most recent highs and yet it sounds like risk has increased.

 

Which companies do you like the best?  I don't follow that many, so I'm likely missing out on potential ideas.

 

I agree with your general point that the amount of general posts here has swamped company-specific posts for awhile.  It's been hard to get any conversation going about specific companies.

I don't even know where to begin. I think the ground is littered with bargains.

 

I'm not saying you're wrong.  I'm genuinely interested in understanding the companies you're referring to.

Lots of mega caps and sleep well at night stocks seem cheap; Berkshire, Google, Altria.

 

I think ALT managers have a bright future and like KKR where apart from earnings there's some tangible value in their investments (which have taken a hit, obviously). Espescially with low rates. Unlike say BAM you don't have to have a strong opinion on malls.

 

Also like retailers (ugh!) like Ulta Beauty - and an asset light (but sub prime heavy!) play on retailers like Alliance Data Systems. The last one has been expensive for me, but hopefully it'll be a multibagger from here.

 

I also like car dealerships. Auto Nation and Ashbury Automotive are cheap and well run in the states, but they also have a bit of leverage. Their new car sales will be hurt in a recession, obviously, but they're making around 40-45 pct. of their GP on service, which is resilent. I like both, but have invested in Vertu Motors and Cambria Automobiles in UK instead - they're simply cheaper.

 

Vertu with around half of the market cap in net cash and coming out of a large investment cycle (thus harvesting FCF now), Cambria arguably a better business and with a fine balance sheet but bigger capex cycle ahead (perhaps some will be postphoned). I also really like Clipper Logistics in the UK (a play on retail and ecommerce), which I've written up, as well as St. James Place (money manager with sticky capital, high ROIC, asset light).

 

My biggest position is Berkshire, second biggest is Linamar, which is a founder-led Canadian auto parts, industrial and and agri company. 2019 was a tough year for them, and they did close to 700m in FCF vs. a market cap of 1,6b today. Guided for another 500-700m this year.

 

That was a couple of weeks before auto OEMS closed shop, they themselves will be shut down for some time, but I think the world will go on in 6-8 weeks, and I expect them to keep throwing off cash and diversify further (latest is into medtech - hopefully something less cyclical!). Trades around 0,3xBV and will probably do mid/high teens ROE if things start hitting on all cylinders at some point. Insiders have been buying.

 

All can be debated - well not really, most have gotten killed - but they're pretty simple business that are easy to understand and should be here in 5-10 years if they don't go bust before then. No idea about the upside, I'm mostly trying to figure out the downside, because if they get through to the other side, I'll much prefer to own 10 plus ROE businesses with fat dividends and half-resilent earnings and net cash should at 1,5xev/ebitda (Vertu) than hold cash - volatility be damned.

 

Thanks for the thoughts.  To the extent it's useful, I have an eye on the following:

 

FRP Holdings

Griffin Industrial Realty

Williams Companies

LICT Corp.

Rosetta Stone

Comcast

Black Stone Minerals (it's hard to even type that right now)

Daily Journal

Hill International

NVR

 

For a few of them, I've been buying a bit here and there, but largely waiting for them to get even cheaper.

How do you decide whether they're cheap enough or not? The other day, when WMB went down 30 pct. to below 9 - apparently somewhat due to forced selling from ETF's - I think that seemed like a good time to pounce.

 

...

 

Anyway, my question is - when we've had a day like today (up 10 pct.) - how does one ever get back in if things just shoot up? Not saying that'll happen, or that it's even likely, but doesn't one risk missing all the action because one is anchored to prices just last week (with a lot of stuff since then up 50-100 pct.)? I think I would. I already find it extremely hard not to anchor to prices that aren't around 52-week lows - as arbitrary and dumb as it is.

 

 

I agree with you re: going to all cash.  I didn't do that for the reasons you mentioned.  But I start adding much too early, before I understood the seriousness of the likely fallout from the virus.  So, I slowed my buying considerably (though I did buy a bit of WMB between 9 and 10 for the reasons you mentioned).  If I missed a buying opportunity with some of my cash, I'm OK with that, but I recognize I cannot time the bottom or perhaps even recognize it until it's long since past.  That's why I do have general price targets for many of the ones I mentioned.

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