opihiman2

Are you paying or is this some kind of choosing beggars type of thing?

I actually wonder how these companies will be doing with all the mortgage stress coming onto the markets. Especially in the next few years. Any thoughts on this?

Chanos has done a great job with his main fund. And to the biases on this particular forum, if history had broken slightly differently he would have nailed Fairfax as well. He's been short almost all of the major frauds and even the ones he's been burned on, he's been mostly right in the long run (i.e. AOL). I see no reason not to have total respect and pay total attention when he speaks on specific companies. You're free to disagree but he's usually got a point. I recall Ackman being 100% certain Chanos was dead wrong on Valeant - and Ackman was the one caught dead wrong. Happens to all of us - but it was a good reminder that Chanos' work is usually pretty solid - Ackman works pretty hard and still missed it. Value investors specifically need to pay attention to Chanos because as a group we've missed a lot over the years and he's caught many of them. I've been paying attention to Chanos. I love the guy. I think he's one of the few short managers that has actually generated alpha from his shorts. Anyways, what's the deal with Fairfax? I haven't kept up with FFH for almost a decade now. As an aside, if I hear about a Chanos short, and it's a company I'm interested in, I don't take that trade. It's always good to hear about some short thesis from a well known short. They do way more DD than I ever would on a company. I'm probably the only one on this board who has ever actually talked to Chanos. He's smart, but his ego gets the better of him, as it did with Fairfax 15 years ago. I asked him point blank if he had done the research on Fairfax and why he was short. He said, no...he was relying on information from two analysts...and we know who they are for those that were around then. I asked him if he had ever read a Fairfax annual report or quarterly report, he said "no". He's made a huge reputation out of a couple of significant shorts, and he's made a bundle offering that service to institutions and investors. I didn't like the guy then, and I'm certainly no fan today. Cheers! Ah, much thanks for the response, Sanj. Ok, I do remember the short attack on Fairfax, but I vaguely recall the details. I did not know Chanos was part of the short attack. To be honest, I didn't really follow it until after the fact. But, I do remember a few board members made out like bandits by going long calls.

Chanos has done a great job with his main fund. And to the biases on this particular forum, if history had broken slightly differently he would have nailed Fairfax as well. He's been short almost all of the major frauds and even the ones he's been burned on, he's been mostly right in the long run (i.e. AOL). I see no reason not to have total respect and pay total attention when he speaks on specific companies. You're free to disagree but he's usually got a point. I recall Ackman being 100% certain Chanos was dead wrong on Valeant - and Ackman was the one caught dead wrong. Happens to all of us - but it was a good reminder that Chanos' work is usually pretty solid - Ackman works pretty hard and still missed it. Value investors specifically need to pay attention to Chanos because as a group we've missed a lot over the years and he's caught many of them. I've been paying attention to Chanos. I love the guy. I think he's one of the few short managers that has actually generated alpha from his shorts. Anyways, what's the deal with Fairfax? I haven't kept up with FFH for almost a decade now. As an aside, if I hear about a Chanos short, and it's a company I'm interested in, I don't take that trade. It's always good to hear about some short thesis from a well known short. They do way more DD than I ever would on a company.

Yep, I agree. A few weeks ago, I was pretty naive about the super majors being able to weather the storm. I think oil is going to be in a multi decade bear market. Past decade was a huge bear market already. The whole point of these oil majors were the dividend. Now that's definitely in question. I think XOM pays up till Q2. I wouldn't be surprised if it cuts in the second half of the year. I wouldn't be surprised if they completely suspend the dividend. That would bring the year average to about 4%. Seems to be the industry standard yield. People are delusional.

I wouldn't go long XOM anymore. It's been in the doldrums for a long time, and they've made a bunch of strategic mis-steps that have hampered their balance sheet. They're doing even worse things now like maintaining a dumb dividend and taking on massive amounts of debt to do so. I would even go so far to say you should short XOM on any price strength. It's going to be a loser in the next few years. A few weeks ago, the play for me was short anything shale, go long super majors and vertically integrated E&P. But, I'm stepping back from that, and will probably not go long any energy now except keep shorts on. RDS had one of the best balance sheets out of the majors, and it just cut dividend big time to something like < 4% yields. At this point, there's nothing attractive about these companies other than surviving the next few years and making a bet on WTI and Brent going and staying above $60 / bbl. I don't think that happens for a long time.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chesapeake-enrgy-bankruptcy-exclusive/exclusive-chesapeake-energy-preparing-bankruptcy-filing-sources-idUSKBN22B31M So it begins. Looking forward to seeing another board favorite, Sandridge Energy head into Ch.11 as well. What a stupid ride that was.

Looks like the VLCC tanker play is taking off today.

This reminds me of an old article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-03/that-time-i-tried-to-buy-some-crude-oil

Yeah, there's really no way to take advantage of this. In a contango market, direct ETF exposure is a guaranteed money loser. A lot of people don't get this and plow into funds like USO and USL without understanding how the get exposure to oil prices. These current contract prices are getting closer to the actual spot price of oil, and unless you can take delivery of an ACTUAL barrel of oil, you're still going to lose money. The only way to get exposure to oil prices without getting screwed by contango is going long equity in oil companies. But, in the past two weeks, there's been a large disconnect between the two. Unless current spot of WTI goes above $30, even XOM will be financially impacted.

Wow, how the mighty have fallen. To think I actually entertained the thought of putting in some money into CGMFX back around 05/06. But, then I realized there's no way this commodities bull market is going to keep going through the roof. I wonder how Bill Miller's new fund is doing ever since he decided to get back into money management. Talk about poor timing.

Haven't been following this thread, so don't know if this has been posted. But, COVID19 has now killed more people in the U.S. than the flu did in the entire 2018-2019 year. And that's including the shutdowns this entire month or so. So much for the virus being just another flu.

I'm not sure if this has been posted on here before, but I just found out that strata fees / costs in Canada against large building apartment / condos, especially in BC, is getting a HUGE increase these next year or so. I'm reading anywhere from 50% to 300+% increases. So, my MIL in Kelowna lives in a large multi-building complex in a 55+ community. They were just notified their strata is going to double soon from $360 to over $600 a MONTH! They are so fuming mad, and everyone is mad as hell in her condo complex. They want to immediately sell. It's happening all over B.C. I think large high rise condos in Vancouver and Victoria are going to take a big hit in prices from this.

I'm hearing new rumors that it's likely he's been re-levering, and to be frank, that actually explains why he's dissolving the fund and has had sleepless nights and "health" issues. I've looked at the last quarter filings, and it just doesn't explain why you would dissolve the fund even if the draw-down is calculated to now about 40%. I'm thinking if he did lever up, there's more worries than fund losses. He'll be facing lawsuits and SEC inquiries. I hope this guy never comes back. He'll be another hack job like Ackman, Tilson, and a whole host of other frauds that closed up shop, and re-opened to wipe out their bad years.

WTI back to $20. Going to be a multi-decade bear market in oil. XOM just took on a HUGE ton of debt, and I wouldn't be surprised if they start cutting dividends.

What a fucking hack. Every time I see his mug, I want to punch him in the face. That guy totally just shit the bed when it comes to investing, and now he's all like, "I told you so!" about the recent rally. I hope the SPY turns over and just craters below 200 so I can just watch his shit eating grin on Yahoo Finance go away.

Wow, I haven't been keeping up with Arlington, and I just read he blew up his fund. Can anyone give me the TL;DR of what the hell happened? I read sometime last year that people were questioning his returns. Anyways, and what the hell happened to ADS? Holy hell, that stock just completely blew up over the past few years. WOW! Investing is a tough tough game.

Big fan of these guys. Learned some really interesting things from them, including the barbell strategy. Artemis and Ruffer also shaped my current view on investing. Basically, the more I see these boom / busts events with equities, I am moving away from it.

I find another forum I often visit much more insightful that this one when it comes to discussion of the oil/gas industry. I think this is pretty appropriate to the discussion of tariffs: "I struggle to see how import tariffs will have any impact on WTI pricing. What we import and what we produce are essentially two different products, even though we call them both crude oil. US refiners are already using as much light sweet crude as possible. They're tooled up to run primarily heavy sour crude. That's why we export so much crude. So an import tariff doesn't mean the refiners will be more inclined to run more domestic oil to help the shale producers. Tariffs on imported crude will just raise the price of gasoline, not WTI... We live in a world where the international markets are going to weigh heavily on the price of WTI, in part due to large volumes of exports. Trump's tariff does nothing to alter international pricing. As long as OPEC keeps flooding the international market, WTI is along for the ride. Saddle up boys..." As an aside, I didn't know this, but apparently Trump didn't know semi's run off of diesel: https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trucking-shortage-elds-leaked-audio-2020-1 Anyways, I think this thread has completely derailed. I don't think I or anyone else on here has any real edge in oil investments. I've looked at Deep Basin Capital's recent filings, and even these guys have been making pretty bad bets on the sector. But what I do know is this: 1) There's a shit ton of oil out there -- peak oil was stupid 2) For the next few years, oil demand is going to stay low 3) NA oil / gas production will likely be decimated 4) The only real long term bet is integrated majors and some midstreams. But, even refiners will have a hard time. Midstream MLP's will likely get wiped out or their dividends will get crushed. My bets are going to be: BP, RDS, CVX, VLO, and maybe PSX. Shorting all things shale related.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/04/oil-set-to-crater-monday-as-opec-meeting-delayed-tensions-flare-between-saudi-arabia-and-russia.html Oil is going to crater next week. Even with large oil production cuts: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-iea/deep-opec-cuts-wont-be-enough-to-prevent-oil-inventory-build-iea-head-idUSKBN21L222?rpc=401&

Yeah, I've been noticing that at some of my local grocery stores as well. It's kind of a scary thing to see. Entire aisles nearly wiped out, and 2 weeks later, still nothing. I'm starting to see the rationale behind all these conspiracy nut jobs with their hoarding of food, water, guns, and other rations. I'm also hearing that crime is starting to increase. People on some other forum said they've had break-ins in their neighborhood, and car break-ins seem to be going up too. Desperate people do desperate things. It's a bit un-nerving, and I used to wonder if those post apocalypse movies / books were grounded in any sense of realism. Feels like I will need to start buying guns at the very least.

This is all stupid. After thinking about it some more. WTF would Russia cut production to 5+ mpd when the US is trucking along at 12 mpd??? Russia is denying now and SA just went silent. This is bullshit. Oil is going to tank back to $20.

How the hell does Kasparov know anything worth a shit when it comes to oil? From the IEA: https://www.iea.org/articles/the-global-oil-industry-is-experiencing-shock-like-no-other-in-its-history and not some rando's on the Internet! We'll see tomorrow whether Trump is full of shit or not.

LoL! Exactly.

Geezus, I've been bamboozled by the media! Looks like Trump's tweet might be bullshit: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-Oil-Producing-Countries-Not-Discussing-Any-New-Deal.html https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-A-15-Million-Bpd-Cut-Will-Never-Happen.html Yeah, it doesn't make sense to me why Russia would cooperate with fucking USA to subsidize their bullshit, inefficient oil production. We'll see. I'll believe all of this when production #'s come down outside of the US. in the next IEA report.