Coronavirus

[Spekulatius]

Interesting example of news Priorities for a NYC newspaper at a day when POTUS thing was about sealing of the great NYC area:

[LC]

NYC hospitals now using morgue trailers (previously used vans).

[Spekulatius]

Separately, I'm wondering what tomorrow will bring?  The bill is signed (good, though should be priced in by now) but the news from Europe (and US?) has not been so good, and suggests US has much worse to come.

 

What news from Europe has been "not so good"?

 

Naturally thowed can reply for himself, but do you think the WHO COVID-19 sit report #69 looks good with regard to Europe?

 

What stat in particular doesn't look good?

 

Since Wednesday/Thursday number of new cases have levelled off in virtually every European country, including Italy and Spain. No more exponential growth, no more growth at all, but a flat line. I'd consider that great news honestly.

 

I agree. While Europe has flattened , the US is showing exponential growth that is going to take weeks to break.

What are you guys talking about?

 

I've attached Italy, Spain, Germany, France, UK. Aside from Italy they look pretty fucking exponential to me. Italy has had a a China style quarantine for a couple of weeks now.

 

No more growth at all? Seriously?

 

The numbers of newly infected/day has been stagnant at ~6k people daily in Italy for example. That actually is progress. Spain is still get worse, but the rate of growth has leveled off. Not great by any means but better then exponential growth.

[minten]

What are you guys talking about?

 

I've attached Italy, Spain, Germany, France, UK. Aside from Italy they look pretty fucking exponential to me. Italy has had a a China style quarantine for a couple of weeks now.

 

No more growth at all? Seriously?

 

I'm looking at new cases per day. These have stabilized almost everywhere in Europe. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries is a good source on this, click on the name of the country, scroll down a bit and look for "daily new cases". This shows a graph of how this is trending for any particular country.

 

Total cases will continue to go up obviously as they can't mathemetically possibly ever go down. Every day new cases get added to it, and nothing ever gets deducted. Not sure if this is such a great number to track.

 

Active cases would be a better indicator, if countries would actually keep track of the number of recoveries (as these would get deducted). No country in Europe actually tracks this though, probably because their health staff has better things to do than call mild cases and ask how they are doing (if they were ever registered at all).

[Spekulatius]

Potus now talks in the WH press conference to find out where all these masks go in NYC. Are they going though the back door? Someone should investigate  :o

 

Literally his words.

[brianr27]

This doc offers a clear set of phases with the milestones that need to be hit on path to recovery:

 

https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/National-Coronavirus-Response-a-Road-Map-to-Recovering.pdf

 

In the US we're clearly in phase 1. Phase 2 is probably sometime in early May based on this model: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

[John Hjorth]

I've attached Italy, Spain, Germany, France, UK. Aside from Italy they look pretty fucking exponential to me. Italy has had a a China style quarantine for a couple of weeks now. No more growth at all? Seriously?

 

Thanks, rb,

 

Obviously people here on CoBF are looking at the same things, however conclusions on observations come out out non-similar.

[rb]

MORE SANITY:  "Dr. Knut M. Wittkowski, the former chief biostatistician and epidemiologist at Rockefeller University Hospital, told The Post he was not practicing social distancing and said he regularly goes to one of two illicit restaurants secretly operating in his Upper East Side neighborhood.

 

“Yesterday I went to my favorite speakeasy and had dinner,” he said, saying there were about eight others dining alongside him. He declined to name the establishment.

 

The veteran physician believes social distancing will only prolong the virus by preventing the natural development of “herd immunity.”

 

“All respiratory epidemics end when 80 percent of all people have become immune,” he said “Then if a new person gets infected, the person doesn’t find anybody else to infect. The best strategy you can do is isolate the old and fragile people — make sure that nobody visits the nursing homes — then let the children go to school and let people go to work. … They have a mild disease. Then they become immune, and after two or three weeks the epidemic is over.”

 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/new-yorkers-are-throwing-corona-potlucks-and-visiting-speakeasies/

 

as usual we are doing things ass backwards.

 

Look, I am conservative, pro-republican so don't think what I am saying is political.  Please use some common sense.  If this thing spreads too quickly it will overwhelm the medical system.  We have ample evidence of this.  If it overwhelms the health care system people who get it will die needlessly due to lack of equipment and care.  It won't happen that way if we can spread out the infection and if we can put in place policies that lock down people who get infected, as is done in various Asian countries.  For those of us in age brackets unlikely to be affected, we risk not getting medical care if we have some medical issue other than covid.  Or getting sick and then getting covid which can kill anyone.

 

Look at it from a pure economic POV.  If we do these shutdowns and we go back and everyone is still infected we will just have to keep locking down.  This could drag on for months and months and cause economic chaos.

 

We are paying a tremendous cost due to the shutdowns, lets make it as effective as possible.

Seriously, no free lunch, I think what you are saying is a dose of sanity.

 

I don't see why this is a political thing. It's not like the virus has a party registration.

 

We are already doing social distancing and some sort of lockdown all over the place. Everyone agrees that these things help with epidemics. These cost a tremendous about of money. So why not get the most of it? Instead we have the deuchebag doctor over there going to his favourite speakeasy (among his other lesser speakeasies I presume). Then someone thinks he's the voice of sanity? Seriously? Why wouldn't you want to get the most bang out of your buck?

 

Anybody considering the speakeasy doctor's advice consider this. A few weeks ago the UK prime minister mocked the virus and the disease and the UK considered going the heard immunity route. Now the UK has a lockdown in place, the prime minister is infected, their case numbers are going vertical, and the prime minister just sent a letter to his people telling them that shit's about to hit the fan.

[rb]

Potus now talks in the WH press conference to find out where all these masks go in NYC. Are they going though the back door? Someone should investigate  :o

 

Literally his words.

Someone should tell him what the Justice Department is actually for? I don't know...

[Spekulatius]

Potus now talks in the WH press conference to find out where all these masks go in NYC. Are they going though the back door? Someone should investigate  :o

 

Literally his words.

Someone should tell him what the Justice Department is actually for? I don't know...

 

Alternatively, he could visit The Elmhurst hospital and don the PPE, mask etc and get an first hand idea how it works and where the stuff goes.

 

Combine this with what I hear from my wife, it’s quite something. Did the US ever send soldiers to war telling them to count the bullets? I don’t think so.

[Guest Schwab711]

MORE SANITY:  "Dr. Knut M. Wittkowski, the former chief biostatistician and epidemiologist at Rockefeller University Hospital, told The Post he was not practicing social distancing and said he regularly goes to one of two illicit restaurants secretly operating in his Upper East Side neighborhood.

 

“Yesterday I went to my favorite speakeasy and had dinner,” he said, saying there were about eight others dining alongside him. He declined to name the establishment.

 

The veteran physician believes social distancing will only prolong the virus by preventing the natural development of “herd immunity.”

 

“All respiratory epidemics end when 80 percent of all people have become immune,” he said “Then if a new person gets infected, the person doesn’t find anybody else to infect. The best strategy you can do is isolate the old and fragile people — make sure that nobody visits the nursing homes — then let the children go to school and let people go to work. … They have a mild disease. Then they become immune, and after two or three weeks the epidemic is over.”

 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/new-yorkers-are-throwing-corona-potlucks-and-visiting-speakeasies/

 

as usual we are doing things ass backwards.

 

Look, I am conservative, pro-republican so don't think what I am saying is political.  Please use some common sense.  If this thing spreads too quickly it will overwhelm the medical system.  We have ample evidence of this.  If it overwhelms the health care system people who get it will die needlessly due to lack of equipment and care.  It won't happen that way if we can spread out the infection and if we can put in place policies that lock down people who get infected, as is done in various Asian countries.  For those of us in age brackets unlikely to be affected, we risk not getting medical care if we have some medical issue other than covid.  Or getting sick and then getting covid which can kill anyone.

 

Look at it from a pure economic POV.  If we do these shutdowns and we go back and everyone is still infected we will just have to keep locking down.  This could drag on for months and months and cause economic chaos.

 

We are paying a tremendous cost due to the shutdowns, lets make it as effective as possible.

 

+1

 

Totally agree. We are so close to being done. Let's just do it well so we can get back to living as soon as possible.

[Aurelius]

Better (the best in the world?) data on Iceland  --- and its results:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6MZy-2fcBw&feature=youtu.be&t=736

 

Article on the randomized testing in Iceland:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/68ZG5SYcRQ5q8F7QR/iceland-s-covid-19-random-sampling-results-c19-similar-to

 

The official stats (not the randomized test):

https://www.covid.is/data

[rb]

Potus now talks in the WH press conference to find out where all these masks go in NYC. Are they going though the back door? Someone should investigate  :o

 

Literally his words.

Someone should tell him what the Justice Department is actually for? I don't know...

 

Alternatively, he could visit The Elmhurst hospital and don the PPE, mask etc and get an first hand idea how it works and where the stuff goes.

 

Combine this with what I hear from my wife, it’s quite something. Did the US ever send soldiers to war telling them to count the bullets? I don’t think so.

 

“President Trump is a ratings hit. Since reviving the daily White House briefing Mr. Trump and his coronavirus updates have attracted an average audience of 8.5 million on cable news, roughly the viewership of the season finale of ‘The Bachelor.’ Numbers are continuing to rise...

Maybe if you get a camera crew he will show up at Elmhurst?

[Spekulatius]

Potus now talks in the WH press conference to find out where all these masks go in NYC. Are they going though the back door? Someone should investigate  :o

 

Literally his words.

Someone should tell him what the Justice Department is actually for? I don't know...

 

Alternatively, he could visit The Elmhurst hospital and don the PPE, mask etc and get an first hand idea how it works and where the stuff goes.

 

Combine this with what I hear from my wife, it’s quite something. Did the US ever send soldiers to war telling them to count the bullets? I don’t think so.

 

“President Trump is a ratings hit. Since reviving the daily White House briefing Mr. Trump and his coronavirus updates have attracted an average audience of 8.5 million on cable news, roughly the viewership of the season finale of ‘The Bachelor.’ Numbers are continuing to rise...

Maybe if you get a camera crew he will show up at Elmhurst?

 

Everyone looks forward to Coronacrisis season two this fall?

[gary17]

it looks like Washington and California states are under control ?  only state loosing it seems to be New York!

 

[Spekulatius]

it looks like Washington and California states is under control ?  only state loosing it seems to be New York!

 

Yes, it seem that Washington state is under control for now. Hopefully it stays that way. Sometimes it actually is good to be hit first. I also think in Washington’s case, the governor did a good job, but I think part of it is just luck too. Social distancing is rally hard in NYC as well, it’s way easier in less densely populated areas.

 

The other worrying hotspots are Florida, New Orleans and I believe Washington DC as well.

[thepupil]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/wtop.com/local/2020/03/coronavirus-test-results-in-dc-maryland-and-virginia/amp/

 

Both from the data and anecdotes (wife works in DC hospital, neighbor works in another), i do not conclude that DC is a hot spot, yet at least.

 

Anecdotally, Michigan is awful (know doctors there)

[Dalal.Holdings]

There could be day to day fluctuation on how data is released. Do West Coast states release data later? In some places is as much testing and release of lab results occurring on weekend days as on weekdays? Are fewer primary care sites (testing sites) and labs (to report tests) open on weekends?

 

One would think mortality data would not have the same problem however.

 

Also would not rely on data unless the day is complete (Midnight PDT) and it's all been reported.

 

The big picture for U.S. not reassuring:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

 

And new areas (MI, FL, MA, IL, LA, PA) are entering the fold. At this point, regional quarantine is useless because this has seeded across the U.S.

[DocSnowball]

 

The big picture for U.S. not reassuring:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

 

And new areas (MI, FL, MA, IL, LA, PA) are entering the fold. At this point, regional quarantine is useless because this has seeded across the U.S.

 

+1

And this is not priced into the markets yet...especially that the social distancing will need to go on another month or so and it's financial impacts

[meiroy]

 

Social distancing can only really work if it's extremely strict or if everyone is forced to wear masks by law and it is enforced.  It's enough to have one super spreader to start the whole thing again.

 

Current half-assed measures are at best just to buy hospitals some time to load up on equipment and make sure they are not swamped.

 

Not only is it not going to reopen by Easter or whatever, within two weeks to three weeks we are going to see some extreme measures in place.

 

 

[meiroy]

So far best response: South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore.

Is it because they all have mandatory military service for men and the people are more alert about incoming threats (from North Korea, China, Malaysia)?

Something to consider?

 

Simple. 1. Everyone in these countries wore masks, and I mean EVERYONE -- the best form of social distancing that actually works.  + 2. testing + 3. due to SARS they had a system in place + 4. pro-science functioning governments.

 

What about the USA? 1. nope. 2. only starting 3. had a system but it was ignored and the responsible team fired 4. None of that.

 

Goodluck.

 

 

 

 

[muscleman]

In case you guys want some real stories.

This is what it looks like in Wuhan today.

So after reporting fake 0 cases for a couple of days, people start to resume their life now. My friend in the most famous Wuhan hospital said they still have 100 new cases per day, but the mayor told them anyone reporting that number will be fired.

Everyone's being extremely careful and wearing masks all the time. I don't think that can completely prevent the 2nd wave of outbreak but that could certainly help though. So maybe what happens next is that people still get the virus but the number is not as big as the first wave's peak.

[no_free_lunch]

In case you guys want some real stories.

This is what it looks like in Wuhan today.

So after reporting fake 0 cases for a couple of days, people start to resume their life now. My friend in the most famous Wuhan hospital said they still have 100 new cases per day, but the mayor told them anyone reporting that number will be fired.

Everyone's being extremely careful and wearing masks all the time. I don't think that can completely prevent the 2nd wave of outbreak but that could certainly help though. So maybe what happens next is that people still get the virus but the number is not as big as the first wave's peak.

 

This is good to hear.  Keep us posted on developments!  So hard to know what is really going on in China.

[Viking]

In case you guys want some real stories.

This is what it looks like in Wuhan today.

So after reporting fake 0 cases for a couple of days, people start to resume their life now. My friend in the most famous Wuhan hospital said they still have 100 new cases per day, but the mayor told them anyone reporting that number will be fired.

Everyone's being extremely careful and wearing masks all the time. I don't think that can completely prevent the 2nd wave of outbreak but that could certainly help though. So maybe what happens next is that people still get the virus but the number is not as big as the first wave's peak.

 

This is good to hear.  Keep us posted on developments!  So hard to know what is really going on in China.

 

Yes, thanks for the up to date information. Encouraging.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-contrarian-coronavirus-theory-that-informed-the-trump-administration

 

The dangers of botching interpretation of data and forecasting (and not engaging in the precautionary principle), and as recently as March 16th:

 

According to the Washington Post, “Conservatives close to Trump and numerous administration officials have been circulating an article by Richard A. Epstein of the Hoover Institution, titled ‘Coronavirus Perspective,’ that plays down the extent of the spread and the threat.”

 

Epstein, a professor at New York University School of Law, published the article on the Web site of the Hoover Institution, on March 16th. In it, he questioned the World Health Organization’s decision to declare the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic, said that “public officials have gone overboard,” and suggested that about five hundred people would die from covid-19 in the U.S. Epstein later updated his estimate to five thousand, saying that the previous number had been an error. So far, there have been more than two thousand coronavirus-related fatalities in America;

 

A broken model leads to policy makers not taking this seriously...SMH