Energy Sector

[Castanza]

47 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

This is the worst energy shock in history lol. The IEA is saying it's worse than both the 1973 and 1979 oil crises combined.

 

 

Probably. Idk about the oil equities though. 

Yeah and the 70s stagflation didn’t stop Sam Walton from growing Wal-mart. Didn’t stop Microsoft, Apple, Home Depot, FedEx all which were founded in the 70s. 
 

There is always a reason to bitch and moan. Pays to be an optimist! 

[Gregmal]

Remember how following Covid, a lot of folks, pretty much everywhere they looked, saw Covid, or were shitting bricks because “a new variant” was just around the corner? Well that’s what we have now with the inflation infatuation. After the real wave of it, some folks, obsessively, see and forecast inflation everywhere. You pretty much want to immediately write off anyone who’s talking about the 70s. It’s nothing remotely similar. But this is a common pattern/phenomena with markets and market participants.

Edited March 28 by Gregmal

[Mephistopheles]

Every single day the strait remains closed, that’s what like 10mn barrels lost? Now the Houthi’s are joining the war, so same shit expected in the Red Sea. For the experts - why are oil futures only $70 for October, just a handful of months away? Feel like it’s a good hedge to buy these. Thoughts?

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Mephistopheles said:

Every single day the strait remains closed, that’s what like 10mn barrels lost? Now the Houthi’s are joining the war, so same shit expected in the Red Sea. For the experts - why are oil futures only $70 for October, just a handful of months away? Feel like it’s a good hedge to buy these. Thoughts?

It’s a better risk reward than buying oil stocks right now with their long duration. I keep selling down my PBRA.

Edited March 28 by Spekulatius

[Dalal.Holdings]

Trump is clearly getting Marines and other assets positioned in the area. USS Tripoli and others. Like before the strikes when he got the Carrier Strike Groups positioned. I think likelihood of securing the Strait with amphibious assault around the area is growing.

 

It might cause an oil price spike…but then if he successfully removes the Iran threat from the Strait, oil prices head south.

 

Or maybe there’s a truce? Or Maybe the regime refuses to negotiate and unleashes everything on energy assets in the region?

 

So many possible ways this goes in the short term. Very hard to nail a solid bet one way or another.

 

If there is one takeaway, it’s that Trump doesn’t want to get stuck in a quagmire and damage markets. That being said, it’s not totally up to him what happens…

[Mephistopheles]

The way I see is that, $70 is nothing inflation adjusted, so demand destruction is not super likely.
 

On the supply side: Even if there is a “ceasefire”, the risk of it falling apart is still there. Insurance /shipping rates are bound to stay up. Recency bias suggests it’ll be quick like the Ukraine war, oil hasn’t been painfully high for a while. The oil crashes of Covid and shale are on everyone’s mind, including the producers, and their shareholders. For a while at least, before the capex cycle turns again. But that won’t happen until the futures reflect a more accurate reality, and that’s when you sell!

 

@Spekulatius I agree, I sold half of my PBRA at like $16-17…funny how it’s moved up last few weeks but my Oct futures haven’t budged 

 

@Dalal.Holdings agreed on him moving more troops there..writing appears on the wall. 

Edited March 28 by Mephistopheles

[Gamecock-YT]

8 hours ago, Jaygo said:

 

Please keep us up to date on this. Are you planning on staying longer? just curious.

 

I will be here for another few weeks. The plan is still staying in Asia for the majority of the year, I’ll just have to see if the fallout from the war forces a change.

 

Here's a map of gas stations in Thailand and their current gas situation: https://thaipumpradar.com/ A good bit of red. 

[Hektor]

13 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

This is the Energy Sector for discussions related to Energy. I think you're looking for the Politics Thread.

+1

[Hektor]

10 hours ago, Gamecock-YT said:

 

I will be here for another few weeks. The plan is still staying in Asia for the majority of the year, I’ll just have to see if the fallout from the war forces a change.

 

Here's a map of gas stations in Thailand and their current gas situation: https://thaipumpradar.com/ A good bit of red. 

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-middle-east-news-updates/card/thailand-says-iran-agrees-to-let-its-tankers-transit-strait-of-hormuz-JYAGIUa0ucCxBaHnNdFf

 

Will this make any difference?

 

Looks like tankers from a number of countries are moving through the strait.

[John Hjorth]

Børsen - www.boersen.dk [March 28^th 2026] : Dane plays key role in Europe's energy sector: The market underestimates the crisis

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Subscription protected.

 

- - - o 0 o - - - 

 

Attached :

 

1. English translation of the article in pdf format, generated by the use of Goodle Translate,

2. Original article in Dansih language in pdf format, source for #1.

Børsen - boersen.dk - Dansker spiller nøglerolle i Europas energisektor_ Markedet undervurderer krisen - English - 20260328.pdf Børsen - boersen.dk - Dansker spiller nøglerolle i Europas energisektor_ Markedet undervurderer krisen - Danish - 20260328.pdf

[SharperDingaan]

Keep in mind that the US is also actively doing its best to mitigate the rise in the price of crude and LNG. Part of that is singing lullaby's, while also aggressively selling spot and buying futures.

 

When the fat lady sings .. it's usually a good time to consider taking the other side; the higher the octaves, the cheaper the position cost    

 

SD

Edited March 28 by SharperDingaan

[Spekulatius]

12 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Trump is clearly getting Marines and other assets positioned in the area. USS Tripoli and others. Like before the strikes when he got the Carrier Strike Groups positioned. I think likelihood of securing the Strait with amphibious assault around the area is growing.

 

It might cause an oil price spike…but then if he successfully removes the Iran threat from the Strait, oil prices head south.

 

Or maybe there’s a truce? Or Maybe the regime refuses to negotiate and unleashes everything on energy assets in the region?

 

So many possible ways this goes in the short term. Very hard to nail a solid bet one way or another.

 

If there is one takeaway, it’s that Trump doesn’t want to get stuck in a quagmire and damage markets. That being said, it’s not totally up to him what happens…

Marines likely target is Kharg Island, They can land there and hold it, that’s what the Marines corps was designed for. Then using Kharg island as leverage to get Iran to open the straight of Hormuz for everyone. The question is will Iran play along? Maybe the Marines on Kharg are sitting ducks for incoming drones and missiles if the Irans escalate too.

 

Any real ground invasion in the Iranian heartland will require hundreds of thousand of troops and I don’t  think Trump will go there. The straight of Hormuz would also need to be open to get that much materials in for such a large number of troops so this would be a catch 22 type situation.

[Spekulatius]

11 hours ago, Gamecock-YT said:

 

I will be here for another few weeks. The plan is still staying in Asia for the majority of the year, I’ll just have to see if the fallout from the war forces a change.

 

Here's a map of gas stations in Thailand and their current gas situation: https://thaipumpradar.com/ A good bit of red. 

I think the list of losers artet with the gulf states, then goes to poorer countries, developing countries, then Europe and last energy producers like the USA. Net exporters like Norway, Brazil, Guyana that are not located in the Gulf are benefiting.

 

 

 

[Marco Van Basten]

I am probably misunderstanding the situation, but why can't the US just block Iranian oil exports without seizing the island?  

[Dalal.Holdings]

I don’t think they go for Kharg. It would roil oil prices. I think they go for much easier Greater and Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa small islands that are right near the Strait. Trump can threaten to give the islands to UAE which has disputed that territory with Iran for decades as leverage…

[SharperDingaan]

4 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

I am probably misunderstanding the situation, but why can't the US just block Iranian oil exports without seizing the island?  

 

Immediate and material jump in spot crude price, adding to the reduction from Russian exports 

 

SD 

[Viking]

32 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

I am probably misunderstanding the situation, but why can't the US just block Iranian oil exports without seizing the island?  

Here is my take. Early on in the war the US decided they wanted to keep the price of oil as low as possible. What to do? Remove sanctions and release Russian and Iranian barrels into the market. It has had the desired effect - it kept prices lower than they would have been in the short term.

 

The problem with this strategy is it comes at a cost: it enriches the very countries you are fighting in the war. 
 

But the problem gets worse. The additional supply also masks the fact that not enough oil is being produced - a significant gap remains. Eventually the shortage hits physical markets - and only gets worse. That is where we are today. We are likely entering the pain point from a supply perspective. 
 

So the policy of removing sanctions and allowing Russian and Iranian oil to be sold on the open market provided a short term ‘win’ in the form of lower prices. 
 

Why not take Iranian oil off the market today? Because we are entering the severe pain period from a supply perspective - and it would spike prices even more. (The time to take Iranian oil off the market would have been 4 weeks ago when the war started.)
 

It doesn’t look like this whole thing was very well thought out.
 

But we are knee deep in the fog of war. It is possible that the US has a plan that we don't yet see or understand. Or they know something that we don’t know (regime is getting weaker). As a result it is probably dumb to be too convicted in anything one thinks right now. 

Edited March 28 by Viking

[Hektor]

5 minutes ago, Viking said:

But we are knee deep in the fog of war. It is possible that the US has a plan that we don't yet see or understand. Or they know something that we don’t know (regime is getting weaker). As a result it is probably dumb to be too convicted in anything one thinks right now.

+1

[Blake Hampton]

17 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Do you listen to the IEA to tell you what to think about the world?

 

I actually do not. A lot of what they put out is institutional imperative BS. What's happening today considering this energy shock is simply math.

[ValueNation]

The latest comments from Trump seem like he is realizing that the US operation has failed here. He is looking to blame someone and instead of acknowledging that it was a huge mistake and he was influenced by Israel, non-experts, etc. he will blame NATO and try and spin it. The road runner cliff is not far off, and it seems that he is beginning to see it now.

 

I can see him cutting bait and going home soon, trying to spin the failure as a failure of NATO and therefore cutting off NATO funding, meaning the US will withdraw and concede but be saving billions of dollars. The issue will be whether Israel stops too. The longer this goes on, the stronger Iran's position becomes.

 

But as you say, who really knows what will happen? No one. Definitely no one on this forum. Lots of egos involved, and in the case of Iran, its an existential war, so could take some very unpredictable turns.

[Blake Hampton]

 

"Saudi Aramco operates the 5 million-b/d East-West crude oil pipeline, which runs from the Abqaiq oil processing center near the Persian Gulf to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea. Aramco temporarily expanded the pipeline’s capacity to 7.0 million b/d in 2019 when it converted some natural gas liquids pipelines to accept crude oil. In 2024, Saudi Arabia pumped more crude oil through the East-West pipeline to avoid the shipping disruptions around the Bab al-Mandeb."

If the Houthis manage to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, that would be an additional 5 million barrels a day of restricted supply, bringing the total volume of petroleum not reaching the market to 25 million b/d. At 300 pounds per barrel, that is 7.5 billion pounds of petroleum failing to reach the market every single day.

 

EIA: Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint

 

Not included are the roughly one-fifth of LNG imports and one-third of fertilizer imports that also pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

[Blake Hampton]

All brought to you by Donald J. Trump.

[Blake Hampton]

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

I don’t think they go for Kharg. It would roil oil prices. I think they go for much easier Greater and Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa small islands that are right near the Strait. Trump can threaten to give the islands to UAE which has disputed that territory with Iran for decades as leverage…

You could be right, it’s the second option I i have in mind. The problem is that those islands are not worth much and they don’t allow for controlling the straight either.

 

Of course the US could block Iranian exports but they actually did the opposite and de- sanction Iran oil together with Russian oil, to prevent prices from shooting up even more. Mind boggling and I doubt  this was all planned.  My guess is that Trump never thought that Iran would close Hormuz  when he started this thing.

Edited March 28 by Spekulatius

[Castanza]

Trumps a rule breaker and frankly ignores all norms. My guess is he does something completely out there like try to seize Iranian oil and work in conjunction with the Saudis or someone to try and keep it flowing. US provides the protection and Saudis get control of the assets while the US gets some special pricing or something. Way out there obviously but it’s Trump so who tf knows. 
 

Personally I don’t understand sending the Marines in. Only half the force is infantry and occupying Kharg island physically doesn’t change much other than put a bunch of American troops at risk. As others said it would take 100k or more troops and a long runways to stage any type of invasion….

 

Will be interesting…