ValueNation

Messi's hattrick today was quite impressive. The pressure is on Ronaldo now...

Our favourite analyst's thoughts are out again: https://global.morningstar.com/en-ca/stocks/fairfax-earnings-solid-underwriting-offset-by-investment-losses?utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=linkshare&utm_source=link His estimate of fair value didn't rise this time...

More FFH as low as $2175 and under $2200. My position size had decreased so its nice to add at these levels again, 1.2-1.3 BVPS. Happy to take what the market giveth

At the FIH AGM this year the price quoted at the booth was $11k USD not including flights in or out of India

Added to FFH today too

The latest comments from Trump seem like he is realizing that the US operation has failed here. He is looking to blame someone and instead of acknowledging that it was a huge mistake and he was influenced by Israel, non-experts, etc. he will blame NATO and try and spin it. The road runner cliff is not far off, and it seems that he is beginning to see it now. I can see him cutting bait and going home soon, trying to spin the failure as a failure of NATO and therefore cutting off NATO funding, meaning the US will withdraw and concede but be saving billions of dollars. The issue will be whether Israel stops too. The longer this goes on, the stronger Iran's position becomes. But as you say, who really knows what will happen? No one. Definitely no one on this forum. Lots of egos involved, and in the case of Iran, its an existential war, so could take some very unpredictable turns.

Added to BNTX and NU

Thanks for this take. It seems to be the most clear-eyed analysis I've seen.

Thanks for pointing this out - assuming the huge volume is TBRD shareholders trying to liquidate. Am I correct in thinking that FFH's cost basis on BAMI is around $18? So it is currently trading at about 1/3 of their cost with an accretive acquisition not yet factored into the price? Sounds interesting.

Thanks as always for your great insights, @Viking I have been thinking recently about this idea of the market misunderstanding FFH. As a long term shareholder, I have trust in the management team and the direction they are taking FFH, but does the thesis for shareholders going forward require the market to also gain this kind of trust? What do you perceive of the chance that the market never develops this trust or always discounts FFH for its past missteps (or for an inordinate time period)? Or is it that the market will have no choice but see the results and eventually pay the multiples that FFH deserves given its ongoing record?

Amazing. I like this version too

Me too - last few years have definitely made more from investing than from my academic specialist income. I've had my share of fat finger mistakes, but thankfully not that big!

I think Aecon (ARE.TO) should still be on this list for 2026. While construction companies are always risky, the thesis remains intact even after the recent run up over $30: The LSTK overhang is almost done with, sentiment is shifting Backlog is at a record $10BN with revenues projected to be $5.4BN in 2025, $6BN in 2026 Margins should be improving with more nuclear projects dominating the project mix and get closer to 7-8% rather than 4-6% When settlements from Eglinton/Finch lines are announced, there should be a big bump with ability to ramp up share buybacks Longer term there is still a great outlook given track record in nuclear and with many SMR / nuclear projects needed for data center energy demand, meaning this is also an AI/energy infrastructure play Still only trading at less than 0.5 EV/2026 sales, 6x projected EBITA, much lower multiples than peers If there is a delay announced or settlements aren't as large as expected (guesstimating $300M or so), then could be a pullback from here, but substantial completion of both the Eglinton and Finch lines have already been announced, and Finch is already operational.

Very interesting way to frame it - had never thought of it like this, but this does make sense. I suppose the time frame and average CR over time would determine this, and it is probably something you can actually calculate given some input assumptions.